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Central banks around the globe are exploring digital versions of their currencies to avoid leaving digital payments to the private sector amid a decline of cash use which has been partly accelerated by the pandemic. 

There has currently been no decision on whether such a currency will be introduced in the UK. The consultation, scheduled for 2022, will make up part of a research and exploration phase that will help the Bank of England and the UK government develop plans over the coming years. 

In a statement, the Bank of England said, “No decision has been made on whether to introduce a CBDC in the UK, which would be a major national infrastructure project. In April 2021, the Bank and HMT initiated the joint CBDC Taskforce to coordinate the exploration of a potential UK CBDC. The Bank also set up the Engagement and Technology forums, where relevant stakeholders from industry, civil society and academia provide strategic and technical input to the work on CBDC.”

The bank also said that the earliest date for the launch of a UK CBDC would be in the second half of the decade. 

Organisations have had to rethink their entire business models, new players have sprung up seemingly from nowhere, and consumer behaviour has completely changed. Of course, more transactions are now taking place online and the use of cash is dwindling.  

But while digital payments are dominating the ecosystem in regions such as the Nordics and the UK, there are some key markets in Europe where there is still a way to go. Both Spain and Germany, for instance, still have fairly low rates of card usage and digital payment adoption with cash still used in around 40% of in-person transactions in Spain, rising to 44% in Germany, according to figures from PCM. 

However, while these statistics suggest that digital payments still have a long way to go in these markets, it could also indicate that a boom is set to happen. Indeed, the growth seen in the Spanish e-commerce sector, for example, and Germany’s creation of a common standard for open Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) through the Berlin Group suggest that further revolutionary changes could be just around the corner. Kriya Patel, CEO of Transact Payments, explores the massive untapped potential of the Spanish and German markets, highlighting the opportunities for innovative incumbents and agile new players. 

Spain: Modernisation will drive a boom in digital payments

Spain, flag, payments

Spain has a developed payments market, with 86.3 million credit, debit and charge cards used by a population of 47 million for 5.58 billion payments with a value of €210.56 billion via 1.7 million point of sale (POS) terminals and more than 115,000 online merchants. But as mentioned above, cash use remains relatively high suggesting there are still opportunities for cards to replace cash.

The foundations for huge growth in digital payments already exist. Spain’s three major payment systems merged into a single provider, SistemaPay in 2018. As well as rationalising the previously complex infrastructure, Spain’s banks and regulators have upgraded and modernised the technologies that power their payments system. This has led to the enablement of instant payments and other services, while regulatory sandboxes have provided a catalyst for trials of new payment methods between FinTechs and banks.

While all European markets saw a rise in e-commerce during COVID-19, Spain enjoyed the fastest growth in this sector among all Southern European nations at 15%, with e-commerce accounting for double the proportion of national GDP compared to the UK, at 4.5% compared to 2.25% of total GDP.

As well as e-commerce, contactless transactions for in-person payments grew during the pandemic. Spain’s smaller merchants are continuing to open up to electronic payment both in-store and online.

Having previously been something of a desert in terms of opportunities for payments players — largely because of its bureaucratic systems and standard debit-led card portfolios — the outlook is now much brighter. The modernisation of its payment systems and speed of digitisation means issuers could be set for a boom in business over the next three to five years.

Germany: Embracing PSD2 to drive massive growth

Germany, flag, payments

Meanwhile in Germany, the growth potential is even more obvious. While the country is unarguably Europe’s economic powerhouse and a global leader in banking, there is still relatively high use of cash, while card use is not as high as some other regions, with 153 million cards held by a population of 84 million people — just under two cards per person. These cards were used for 6.29 billion payments with a total value of €350 billion via 1.15 million POS terminals and online in 2019.

Like Spain, there are solid foundations for digital payments players to build on. Digital transactions are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of around 11% in the next few years. While debit cards are most commonly used to pay online, low digital wallet use at just 7% suggests an openness to new solutions other than wallets.

Germany has not sat on its hands when it comes to embracing the EU’s PSD2 regulations. The Berlin Group has created a common standard for open APIs, opening the way for innovative players to muscle into the payments market. With a high number of permissioned intermediaries now able to deliver payments services thanks to the new regulations, smaller companies in Germany now have better options for accepting payments, reducing their reliance on more expensive third-party players.

There are also plans to bring together Germany’s various instant peer-to-peer (P2P) and person-to-business payments schemes. Instant payments are experiencing very rapid growth in Germany, though with only 20% of banks offering this function the room for growth is obvious. Look out for “PayX” — a merger between schemes like Geldkart, Paydirekt and Kwitt — in the coming months and years.

Overall, there look to be plenty of opportunities for players in the payments space to take advantage of in these two key European markets. While restrictive infrastructure has previously made these two nations something of a challenge for payments innovators, recent regulatory and systemic changes coupled with public appetite for new services make Spain and Germany an exciting place to be right now. 

Dare Okoudjou, Founder and CEO of MFS Africa, looks at the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and how the world economy can become more adaptable in its wake.

The relentless spread of COVID-19 throughout 2020 has underlined the importance of financial resilience in disasters and unforeseen events. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Report 2020 estimated that some 71 million people would be pushed back into extreme poverty in 2020 due to the pandemic, while some 1.6 billion precarious workers in the informal economy – half the global workforce – may be significantly affected.

But while the aggregate reporting may be global, the rapid advance of COVID-19 across the world has also highlighted how economic interconnectedness means that the worst would hit everyone at the same time. Often where one region or country was subject to severe restrictions on movement or activity, another was more open. People have therefore felt the effects of the pandemic at different paces and to different degrees according to where they are in the world. This dynamic provided a path to greater resilience – we can offset economic damage to a badly affected area by funnelling support from one that is doing better. But it depended on the availability of convenient and low-cost solutions that could reach the poorest where they were.

With incomes squeezed and jobs lost due to COVID-19, it has become increasingly important for this group to be able to easily access support from family back home, and likewise to be able to provide this support to family where needed. Remittances can be a lifeline for people in precarious situations and provide flexibility in the face of disaster by enabling money to easily move to where it’s most needed.

Remittances are more than a lifeline

The virus halted all movement of people and cash. As regions put in place different states of lockdown and movement restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19 – this prevented customers from accessing cash. The virus also rendered cash a less hygienic option, thus states also restricted the opportunities to make in-person transactions. All of this made mobile money infrastructure more important.

The relentless spread of COVID-19 throughout 2020 has underlined the importance of financial resilience in disasters and unforeseen events.

Since remittance payments account for a significant portion of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP (2.8% in 2019), it was vital to ensure they could be made easily to send money. The pandemic led many African countries to strengthen their mobile money ecosystems and address specific constraints. For example, Ethiopia relaxed its rules for mobile banking and money transfers – opening the market to all local businesses to encourage people to go cashless and control the spread of coronavirus. The Central Bank of Kenya raised its transition limits and Safaricom has lowered their fees, all in an effort to encourage people to ditch cash during the COVID-19 pandemic. These are only a few examples of how the financial services regulators in Africa adapted their thinking to put the safety of citizens at the heart of its operations, whilst also ensuring they have access to the wider global economy. In a few short weeks, a pandemic helped shift perspectives on the role of appropriate regulation in building financial solutions that strengthen consumer resilience.

Digital payments and financial resilience

The pandemic has emphasised the urgency and importance of these digital ecosystems to governments and decision-makers. With restrictions on physical contact and movement during an economic crisis, it has underlined the importance of being able to move money about seamlessly and highlighted the role that digital technology can play when it comes to keeping consumers and businesses connected during a crisis. Just because we have (physically) come to a standstill, doesn’t mean that the economy has to as well.

Although we are continuing record-breaking new cases, there is a silver lining. Recent announcements on successful vaccination trials are signalling the beginning of the end for this pandemic. What is important now is that we don’t retract the positive steps made to support vulnerable senders and recipients of remittances. Unfortunately, we are starting to see some reversals. In my country, Benin, revisions in regulation of cross-border payments have stripped away proportionality in payments, meaning that very small payments are being treated on the same regulatory terms as larger payments.

Africa provides an intriguing vision for what digitally-enabled resilience looks like – and the barriers that stand in its way. The continent is a leader in mobile money, with over 400 million registered mobile money accounts; the technological tools to support its widespread adoption have been in place for over a decade.

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Mobile payments provide a fantastic example of how digital technologies can help us build a more resilient and adaptable world, one that can better see through crises and pandemics and mitigate the economic and social damage of these rare but impactful events. Policymakers, regulators, and businesspeople need to recognise the opportunity: to build a new normal, where digital infrastructure such as mobile payments future-proof our world.

New research has suggested that the Coronavirus pandemic will dramatically hasten the decline in cash usage in the UK. Enforced lockdown has led to a dramatic 60% fall in the number of withdrawals from cash machines, while card payments and online shopping, particularly for essential purchases such as groceries, have skyrocketed. With now significantly less demand for cash withdrawals and subsequently, more and more machines disappearing from our high street the way phone boxes once did, it’s highly likely that this changed societal behaviour will last long after the virus has left our shores.

Problems with cash have been well documented, and have only been intensified by reports early in the Coronavirus outbreak about the spread of the virus on banknotes and coins. Whilst the World Health Organisation and the Bank of England have stressed that the risk of transmission from cash is no greater than any other item, these concerns have acted as a catalyst for many to adopt an all-digital wallet. In addition, cash is actually quite inconvenient and increasingly unnecessary. Cash can be stolen or lost. Consumers are unable to redeem reward points for spend and cannot automatically track spending habits to help with budgeting. In today’s society, cash simply struggles to compete with the multi-dimensional attributes of digital payments.

If you add to this the UK increase of the contactless limit to £45 at the beginning of April, cash for many has all but become redundant. If already, only a third of payments are made in cash, it’s unquestionable that the additional pressure that COVID-19 has applied to coin and note exchange will see the predictions for a largely cashless society within the decade, accelerated at speed.

Halifax said the number of over-65s signing up for online banking jumped by 63% and their use of contactless has also soared.

And it’s not just digitally-savvy millennials that are driving this trend. Many older people have switched to online banking and contactless payments since March this year. Halifax said the number of over-65s signing up for online banking jumped by 63% and their use of contactless has also soared. It’s highly likely that temporary measures put in place to help limit the spread of the Coronavirus such as stores only accepting cards and contactless will clear the way for a cashless. Business banking app Amaiz’s recent research revealed that around 50% of small and medium businesses in the UK have either gone entirely cashless or plan to do so in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Of course, there are drawbacks to a cashless society. We must not forget that for many people, small businesses and not-for-profits, cash is crucial to their survival; for those without bank accounts, digital payments may reduce financial access. Many now call for regulation to ensure that retailers, restaurants and bars must also accept cash tender.

Whilst downsides are evident, for many, convenience outweighs. And as we become ever more reliant on digital services to tend to our basic needs in life beyond the curve, the decline in the use of cash looks set to continue.

The digital opportunity

Technology is revolutionising our relationship with money. The omnipresence of smartphones and the development of financial applications means that it is possible to bundle spending habit reports, savings, checking, credit card usage, loans and credit score all in one easy and secure place. In turn, this means that mainstream FinTech has created the opportunity for consumers to develop financial literacy regardless of background, age or current financial circumstances.

The cost of maintenance of a sparsely used cash system will become increasingly debilitating over the coming years. Cash will become costlier to maintain as its value to the vast majority of consumers diminishes. It is therefore crucial that banks and FinTech businesses work to bring those without bank accounts, and the elderly further into the FinTech ecosystem – suggestions such as the Bank of England’s digital notes are perhaps a good starting point.

The repercussions for organised crime and fraudulent activities are also significant in a digitally managed system, providing both a more secure currency – less liable to loss – and less room to hide significant portions of extra income.

Technology has worked to help us understand, track and manage our money in a way we’ve never been able to before. And as COVID-19 turned industries on their heads, banks had to evolve in real-time to further provide digital services that customers would have ordinarily sought assistance in branches or over the phone. As we quickly evolve into a digital-first world, banks, governments and businesses must recognise that digital payments are an opportunity for inclusion, for increased financial literacy and for long-term economic stability. They need to work collectively to ensure measures are put in place to protect those who still need access to cash and to provide a greater breadth of service digitally for those that will shift from pounds to plastic. For a cashless society is no longer stuff of the future, it’s here and due to the COVID-19 crisis is coming much quicker than we once predicted.

Below Douglas Blakey, editor at GlobalData Electronic Payments International, considers the key changes ahead.

Among the most notable product launches of 2019 was the Apple Card. It was notable not just for the hype it generated. The card also features the natty feature of no card number, signature or expiry date.

Any 2020 forecasts have to include the call that we can expect to see more of the same. There is huge potential for the popularity of virtual cards to soar due to the peace of mind given to consumers by way of increased security.

A second prediction is a little riskier and that is a tad less political uncertainty in the UK. It may be a little optimistic to make similar forecasts in other markets, such as Hong Kong, Chile and Venezuela. But in the UK, a decisive Conservative general election victory may clear some of the fog. The payments sector will take in its stride the likely rise in the value of a currently undervalued sterling.

Strong customer authentication

A third forecast relates to AI and machine learning. Expect more investment in real-time transactional data analysis to uncover potential criminal activity.

We will hear plenty more about how strong customer identification will play a crucial role in reducing occurrences of fraud in payments.  As the staggered rollout of 3DS 2.0 continues, ahead of full compliance with PSD2 in March 2021 there should be plenty of positive news stories about success in fraud prevention.

On a similar theme, Secure Remote Commerce will allow the sector to rethink the online checkout. It removes the need to type card details manually and replaces the card number with a token.

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Open Banking still to show its potential

Next up, faster payments. Safe 2020 forecasts must include the expectation of many a breathless press release about an explosion in faster payments.

And then there is Open Banking. 2019 was meant to be the year that Open Banking took off. The kindest summary would be that it has yet to show its full potential. But in an effort to be upbeat about Open Banking, expect to see a significant increase in the adoption of the payments side of Open Banking in 2020.

Finally, a word on regulation. It is safe to forecast further acceleration towards consolidation in payments. One of the best examples is the roadmap to the Eurosystem Single Market Infrastructure Gateway promoted by the European Central Bank.

Written by Paresh Davdra, CEO and Co-Founder of Xendpay & RationalFX

2017 is an exciting time to be alive. Along with the various socio-political developments, it is also a period heralding monumental strides in the human way of living. The bug has bitten the financial industry as well, which is now converging with the tech space to co-create what we see as the future of handling the world’s wallet and forex. Across payment gateways to remittances, we are being pushed to bring in an element of the ‘instant’ and ‘now’ – a fast and easy world of immediate money transfer and delivery. Markets are no longer convened by pockets; the change is multi-lateral and multi-layered. For instance, in the developed markets we are engaging on a platform of routing forex transaction buoyed by political uncertainty, while simultaneously upgrading the business models in developing markets to suit economic experiments such as the recent demonetisation drive in India.

The tsunami of tech inspired disruption that the payments industry has seen over the past few years has given birth to multiple business concepts and ideas like digital remittance services, e-wallets, digital payments and ecommerce have burst to envelope the current narrative. While the developed markets across the west and east have embraced new forms of ICT enabled currency handling, the developing markets hold immense potential as they begin to experience revolutionary changes in their systems. For example, China and India are the world’s largest cash economies which spend millions of dollars printing and minting physical currencies. In such markets, there is scope for bountiful improvements and value additions using ICT enabled services.

In the case of India, the government had all of a sudden on 8th November 2016, demonetised the 500 and 1000 rupee notes, taking them out of circulation and rendering them no longer valid legal tender within a window of 3 days. For a country with 86% of cash transactions, the ensuing confusion and panic nearly brought the country to a standstill for a week. However, necessity turned to opportunity, and during that period of cash crunch, e-wallets and payment gateways pushed themselves forward to recalibrate their business model to expand their offerings in a new cash deficit environment. About two months since the demonetisation exercise, a leading e-wallet company generated a huge market share and elevated its business operations to amass enough collateral to become a payment bank! While India is now onwards to digitalise its economy, countries such as Sweden and Norway operate their economies with less than 5% in cash; while Australia’s Citibank had very recently announced to stop accepting paper money altogether.

The past couple of years have been particularly interesting for the payments world, and if we look back at 2015 – around February is when the initial trend in payments start-ups became more pronounced. This period also saw a boom in other forms of payments than the conventional cash transactions, and with the development of a cashless economy, more protruding questions on the trust and security factors around e-payments started to solidify booming the frequency of use, creating a new market that gradually became its own bionetwork. One year later, we witnessed major progress in investments in the FinTech sector in the UK and Europe, which inundated the sector as insistent tech developments in the sector marched on and harvested gravity defying momentum. Trial, adoption and application entered the day-to-day routine in the industry and almost each passing day experienced a new breakthrough.

From then on, the focus shifted towards the consumer experience. Now, in 2017, we are bound to witness a thriving increment in the numbers of consumers whose lifestyle and purchasing parity will pave way for change, and witness more consumers gearing up to ride the technological wave their way. As digital payments have already become the norm in the developed world, the slow seepage of structure onto the eastern world will systematically affect how transfer of value is carried out – the incredibly fast pace at which new businesses and solutions are emerging has created a cat-mouse chase between innovators and regulatory sector. Consumers now have to keep pace with the movements in the tech sector. The sector is urging more technologies into the mainstream, especially protocols like the Blockchain technology.

More importantly, the FinTech developments are becoming more or less very disruptive and will continue to dent the establishments and empower the common man. For instance, the forex trade largely involves banks and corporates which act on market movements to operate on the remittance space.

When a customer wants to transfer money back home, they are bound for a three day wait as the bank or company explores for a favourable trade for themselves before completing the transfer. Companies such as ours are challenging this very lethargic and age old status-quo, to promote instant money transfer without implementing middlemen or brokers. We are truly empowering the end consumer with a fast and easy system on their fingertips. Why? Because it is 2017!

Besides these key points, transparency has been playing a pivotal role in consumer sentiment; as this generation of consumers have high expectations when it comes to flexibility and sharing of information and data. This factor encapsulates the trust element of an organization. Upcoming firms should take a note of this trend to focus on strategies that implement transparency and flexibility when it comes to communicating your value proposition to the customers.

This year will witness a world of instant digital payments with immediate validation, acknowledgement, and exchange of transaction data between the point of transaction and the seller’s ledger. This is against the 2016 idea of “near real time,” which pertains to accelerated sets that may range from minutes to hours or even more days, real time would be truly, absolutely instantaneous dispensation and processing of information. Lastly, it should be noted that payment systems are crucial to any economy considering their vital role to enable the intermediation process, a core requirement for financial stability. Upcoming technological applications and adoptions like the Blockchain protocol will most likely serve as a key factor in facilitating immediate intermediation, due to its seamless process automation capabilities to keep a ledger sound without human intervention.

 

 

As contactless payments go from strength-to-strength and competing digital wallet options are rolled-out by everyone from the giant tech companies to mobile operators, the number of articles and experts publicly heralding the imminent onset of a ‘cashless society’ increases proportionally.

From the latest tranche of predictions, the country cited as leading the current all-digital currency race appears to be Sweden (ironically the first European country to issue banknotes back in 1661). Here cash payments accounted for just 2% of the value of all transactions made in 2015, and electronic payment optimists are forecasting a cash-free society as early as 2020. It’s also the country where protest continues at the decision to no longer accept cash on the capital’s Metro, and where cases of electronic fraud have more than doubled in the last decade.

There’s certainly no denying that new digital payment technologies are gaining traction, but those promoting this as evidence of the imminent arrival of cashless societies should, for want of a better phrase, ‘take note’.

IOU deja-vu

Back in the early 1950s, around the same time the very first Diners Club Cards gained popularity across the US, the vision of a cashless society was enthusiastically predicted. More than sixty years later, cash payments still account for 85% of all global retail transactions by volume.

Beyond the hyperbole, often generated by those with digital payment options to sell, the common-sense prediction for the future of cash is probably that, while the world will inevitably evolve beyond physical currency at some point, it’s more likely to happen sometime in the next century than the next decade.

The immediate reality is far more likely to be a future where, while cash is no longer king, it becomes a facility regarded as a fundamental part of our suite of payment options, sitting alongside contactless cards, eWallets and mobile payments, each ready to be used in the most convenient instance.

Show me the money!

Using cash in this context is far from archaic. Even today, cash is the fall back that always works. What do you do when it’s time to settle the restaurant bill but the chip-and-PIN machine’s broken? Work off your debt in the kitchen – or pop over the road to the ATM? Cash is the only format familiar to all purchasers, regardless of age, affluence or technological awareness.

Furthermore, the physical act of exchanging money can feel secure, and manageable.

Taking out cash for the week or month can help households to budget, and the act of handing money over still allows many consumers to better visualise their budgets and keep track of what they’ve spent.

This is supported by a recent survey taken by price comparison website GoCompare, in which 15% of respondents expressed concern that digital payment systems encouraged them to spend more than they should, with a further 7% stating they didn’t connect spending in this way with ‘real money’.

In an age of increased public surveillance and electronic monitoring, cash also offers a level of anonymity that many people are reluctant to give up. In a survey recently undertaken by Cartridge Save, 70% of Britons said they would be unhappy with government agencies being able to track every single payment they made.

Cash is staying – so let’s deal with it

As much as retailers enjoy the convenience and benefits of digital payments, for now, cash is here to stay. In fact, there’s never been more of it in circulation, and far from becoming a transactional default relied on by less sophisticated nations, the world’s most cash intensive economy is Germany, where it still accounts for over 80% of all payments made.

Responding to this reality intelligently on behalf of modern retailers, demands methods for the effective management of cash in the omni-channel world. Acknowledging that its physical nature means processing cash efficiently requires extra levels of logistics and supply chain management.

Optimising this Retail Cash Chain enables retailers to accelerate the speed of cash through their operations, from the customers’ point of purchase to the deposit in their bank account. Applying techniques to authenticate, secure, automate and accelerate within this Retail Cash Chain realises significant benefits, ultimately optimising the levels at which the value of cash can move, far beyond its apparent physical limitations. In other words, reaching a point where cash transactions become as expedient for retailers as electronic payments.

Physical currency may be one of the world’s oldest methods for making a purchase, but that doesn’t mean the way it’s handled shouldn’t employ the best of 21st century technology and innovation.

 

About Siôn Roberts:

In his role as EVP Global Retail, Siôn is responsible for defining and delivering Glory Global Solutions' Retail Strategy worldwide. He has over twenty five years’ experience in the Information Technology sector, most of which has been gained selling and delivering technology based solutions within the international Retail Industry, specifically store solutions.

With an MBA from the University of Liverpool, Siôn originally started out as a Software Engineer in Point of Sale and retail store systems. Siôn has successfully held roles across technical/development management, consulting, sales/marketing and commercial/executive roles within a number of large and small global organisations. Prior to joining Glory Global Solutions, Siôn was Group CEO at software consulting firm Ivar Jacobson International, and has previously worked for Electronic Data Systems (a division of HP) and ICL (now Fujitsu Services) in senior international management positions. At Fujitsu he formed a new global business unit focused on in-store interactive technology and electronic/mobile commerce.

 

 

GraphCoinsData from Worldpay, the UK’s leading payments processor, reflects a significant shift in the way British consumers are paying for goods, with High Street credit and debit card transactions rising just over 6% in 2014, following similar gains the previous year.

Londoners are responsible for the single biggest year on year rise in card spending. Transaction volumes on credit and debit cards in the Capital have risen by 9.3% in the past year. Cosmopolitan Leeds is not far behind however, with card-based payments rising by 8.9% in 2014, while Reading (8.0%), Southampton (7.9%), and Liverpool (7.7%) are also creeping towards the cashless tipping point.

Worldpay believes a migration of low value cash payments to card, alongside increasing use of contactless are pushing the UK closer to the point where cards overtake cash as the dominant payment method on the High Street. Recent data from the British Retail Consortium suggests cash use is down by 14% over the past five years across the UK.

Worldpay’s claims are backed by its data which shows a steady decline in average transaction values for credit and debit cards, from £31.51 in 2012, to £29.67 in 2014, an overall drop of 6%. In the fast-growing contactless sector meanwhile, where the number of transactions processed has risen by 150% in the last six months, transaction values have levelled out at around £7.24.

Cash may not be quite done with yet, but it is clearly losing its appeal, particularly among tech-savvy Gen Y’ers. Worldpay research of 2000 consumers found the majority of Brits over 45 years old still like to have cash on them, nearly 60 per cent of 25-to-34-year-olds would prefer to never carry cash.

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