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Russia-Ukraine Conflict Could Drive US Inflation To 10%

Inflation in the United States is already at its highest level in 40 years, but Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine could see it driven even higher.

Posted: 25th February 2022 by
Finance Monthly
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The Russia-Ukraine conflict has already sent oil prices above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. On Thursday, some prices soared as high as $105 following Russia’s launch of a broad offensive against Ukraine. In the early hours of the morning, explosions were heard near major Ukrainian cities, including the country’s capital, Kyiv. 

Following the attack, Brent crude oil — the global benchmark — jumped by more than 8%, reaching $105.50 early Thursday. Meanwhile, US oil prices climbed to over $99. 

RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas warns that the war between Russia and Ukraine could ultimately lead to oil prices surging as much as 20% to $110 per barrel. This would cause consumer prices in the US to surge above 10% on an annual basis. This is the highest figure since October 1981. 

"The price of oil has almost doubled since the start of last year and, given current tensions, is poised to move higher. The potential for a broader energy shock to the global and U.S. economies should Russia invade Ukraine has added to a combustible mix of factors that is causing inflation to accelerate in the United States and abroad," said Brusuelas. "That risk carries with it the potential to slow down growth."

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