The price per coin has so far been strong this year as traders and investors cheered the likes of Facebook and Apple showing interest in bitcoin, cryptocurrency and bitcoin's underlying blockchain technology. This weekend's drop was attributed to a lacklustre debut for the highly-anticipated Bakkt bitcoin and its cryptocurrency investment platform at the beginning of the week.
According to Forbes, the drop has caused panic among traders and investors who have been anticipated a drastic change for some months now. For the time being bullish Bitcoin traders are advising to buy as the markets look confused as ever, and there will be some results on the horizon. In addition, chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital, a US bitcoin and cryptocurrency investment company, suggests "buying the dip," clarifying that daily change sin the value of Bitcoin are rarely significant and should be ignored.
Daniele Mensi, CEO of Nexthash, the operating group of digital exchange platform Nexinter, commented on the price drop: "The volatility of cryptocurrencies is what makes them excellent conduits of growth for traders, investors, and growing businesses. What is important to remember is that Bitcoin is still up around 115% this year, so its short terms peaks and troughs are necessary to facilitate longer-term growth across the currency. It is important for new traders and investors to do their due diligence on each currency that they invest into to ensure that it is the right route for them, but institutional investors and high-growth companies will continue to look crypto and digital trading to facilitate international, fluid growth."
After spending a year and a half in the bear market, the price of Bitcoin has recently increased and the bull run is in full force. Although there are certain factors that may have a negative impact on the value of Bitcoin, it is likely that in the long term it will transform into a safe asset due to its rarity. However, the uncertainties of its future can make the price fluctuate daily.
Following a report that Gate.io’s research team launched looking at the fluctuation of the currency, Marie Tatibouet, CMO at Gate.io, teams up with Finance Monthly to take a look at a number of factors that can influence the price of Bitcoin.
User Adoption
One factor that can influence the price of Bitcoin is user adoption of the asset. Popularity of the currency can drive prices up, whereas if the demand for the currency is low, it can decrease the value. Individuals, governments, institutional investors and multinational corporations are adopting Bitcoin, therefore it is evident that the price will be pushed to a new high.
Findings from the report underlined that from 2012 and 2018, the number of Bitcoin addresses with 100 to 1000 BTC gradually increased, accounting for a considerable portion of the Bitcoin in circulation. Additionally, during 2012 and 2015, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated, with it becoming more affordable whist the mining difficulty decreased, and then increasing again. Between 2016 and 2017, Bitcoin became more expensive and the difficulty of mining increased, therefore the growth of Bitcoin slowed down considerably.
Bitcoin Reward Halving
In addition, Bitcoin reward halving is a contributor to the fluctuating price of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has a fixed amount of 21 million, unlike fiat money which can be inflated by the centralised authority. It is intended that when 210,000 blocks are generated, the reward from Bitcoin mining will half. Since this was introduced, it has happened twice where the reward has halved - resulting in a fall from 50 BTC to 12.5 BTC. On average this happens every four years.
As a result of Bitcoin reward halving, there is a significant impact on the mining industry. Following the first and second halving, the hash rate decreased, but recovered quickly. Throughout 2018, when the price of Bitcoin was falling, a number of miners decided to leave the practice as well as a few mining pools closing down. This highlights the effect the changing price of Bitcoin has on the industry. However, with this being said, there seems to be a wider acceptance of Bitcoin today. The hash rate began to stabilise at the beginning of 2019, suggesting an optimistic market.
Cryptocurrency Regulations
Cryptocurrency regulations is another factor that can affect the price of Bitcoin. As the cryptocurrency industry has experienced rapid acceleration, regulatory bodies have started to pay more attention to the industry. Governements are now taking note of money laundering, terrorism financing and other criminal activities that can be linked with cryptocurrencies. An example of this is in Canada where amendments to the ‘Proceeds of Crime and Terrorist Financing Act’ now require businesses dealing with virtual currencies to register with the Federal Financial Intelligence Unit.
The development of Bitcoin in most countries is unrestricted, with the report highlighting that among 126 countries, 67% of them consider Bitcoin as legal, whilst 19% of them remain neutral. On the other hand, only 8% the 126 countries deem Bitcoin illegal. The response from regulatory bodies can cause the value of Bitcoin to go up or down.
The Future
Although the future of individual cryptocurrencies are uncertain, the industry is growing as a whole. Predicting the price of individual cryptocurrencies is nearly impossible, but Bitcoin’s recent Strength Indicator shows clearly that Bitcoin is here to stay, at least for the next few years. With additional certainty, we should expect a price increase and stabilization. Bitcoin has created vast opportunities and possibilities and its full potential is yet to be reached. Bitcoin has come so far in the past 10 years, so it will be interesting to see where it will be in the next 10 years and the true value it will offer.
Ethereum, currently the second largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin, will experience a “monumental, defining global breakout” when smart contracts can accept outside data.
The bullish prediction from influential technology expert, Ian McLeod of Thomas Crown Art, the world’s leading art-tech agency, comes as Ethereum’s price jumped 4% on Monday, adding some 8% over the last week, to trade at highs of $210.
Mr McLeod comments: “Ethereum is back in bull territory and is on track to enjoy considerable gains before year-end.
“I maintain that we can expect Ethereum to hit $500 by the end of 2018 and go on an overall upward trajectory throughout 2019.
“However, what will be the monumental, defining driver for its global breakout? Oracles.
“Oracles link Ethereum-run smart contracts to the real world and will be responsible for the digital currency to enter an entirely new phase of mass adoption.”
Oracles are trusted data feeds that deliver information into the smart contract, thereby taking away the requirement for smart contracts to directly access information outside their network. Typically, oracles are usually supplied by third parties which are authorised by the organisations that use them.
Ian McLeod continues: “Oracles are a massive step forward in the practical utilisation of smart contracts. They allow smart contracts to accept outside data to decide upon an action – and this has a myriad of highly-demanded, real-world use-cases in almost every sector.
“For instance, they can help insurance companies with pay-outs on flight delays, sports betting firms with result information coming from various trusted sources, and can help us in the art world by conclusively proving the provenance of artwork quickly and easily.”
He adds: “Using a blockchain to authenticate artwork is an ideal use-case for smart contracts. They provide the ability to store a permanent, immutable record of artwork at the point of creation which can be used to authenticate registered works. Oracles will further enhance this concept and lighten smart contracts’ work processes.”
The tech expert concludes: “When Ethereum-based smart contracts are fed a robust and reliable information through oracles to make precise and correct judgements, Ethereum’s price will explode.”
Last month, Mr Mcleod noted: “We can expect Bitcoin to lose 50% of its cryptocurrency market share to Ethereum, its nearest rival, within five years.
“Ethereum is already light years ahead of Bitcoin in everything but price – and this gap will become increasingly apparent as more and more investors jump into crypto.”
(Source: Thomas Crown Art)
The longest bull market rally in history has further to run – but investors may wish to start to build cash positions before next year.
The message from Tom Elliott, deVere Group’s Senior International Investment Strategist, comes after the S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high late August, and recorded its longest ever rally (which began in March 2009).
Mr Elliott comments: “Wall Street is celebrating the longest stock market rally in history. One suspects it has further to go, given that the current defining features of the U.S. economy - strong growth and a cautious Fed - are an investor’s dream.
“This happy combination can be seen in last week’s upward revision to second quarter U.S. GDP growth estimates, to 4.2%, which comes just a week after Fed chair Jay Powell promised caution over the pace of interest rate hikes next year in his address at Jackson Hole -- although he did as good as confirm two more rate hikes this year, in September and December.
“Furthermore, global stock and credit market valuations are more attractive than at any point this year, thanks to corporate earnings growth outpacing share price growth.”
He continues: “But while the outlook for Wall Street over the coming months appears good, as we go into 2019 investor sentiment towards the U.S. stock market may change sharply.
“Cautious investors may want to start building up cash positions, and so take advantage of any sell-off.
“After all, the Fed’s caution is justified: many economists suspect that behind the current GDP growth spurt are temporary boosts to the economy, such as tax cuts and strong exports of goods ahead of the imposition of counter tariffs by America’s trading partners.”
He goes on to say: “Then we have political risk, whether over trade negotiations, North Korea, Iran, and the risk of the impeachment of Donald Trump, should the Democrats win control of the Senate in the mid-term Congressional elections.
“But perhaps the biggest risk to investors is the steady draining away of global liquidity, as central banks end or - in the case of the Fed, actually put into reverse - their quantitative easing policies.”
Mr Elliott concludes: “A diversified multi-asset portfolio remains the best protection against unpredictable markets. This should contain exposure to global equities and bonds, with property, gold and cash also included. After all, a 2% return on dollar cash isn’t to be sneezed at.”
(Source: deVere Group)
Said markets present anticipated price developments daily, weekly, monthly and yearly, and when scouting for profits, bidding investors will act according to the market sentiment.
If the anticipated price development of a market’s stock is upwards, meaning the value of certain stock is rising or expected to rise, as a consequence of trends, single events, supply materials, current affairs or many other factors, the market sentiment is expressed as bullish. Vice versa, if the anticipated price development is on the downtrend, by any of the same reasons, the market sentiment is expressed as bearish.
It isn’t always as simple as this however. Market sentiment is also considered to be a contrarian indicator. For example, extremely bearish markets may subsequently display dramatic spikes – the turning point for this is often where the risky decision making appears.
Market sentiment, the overall expression of a certain market as bullish or bearish, is normally determined by a variety of technical and statistical methods that factor in the comparisons of advancing & declining stocks as well as new lows & new highs in the market. One of these is known as the Relative Strength Index (RSI); it relates the number of assets bought to assets sold, indicating whether capital is flowing in or out of the market in question. Normally, as a market follows sentiment either way, the flock follows, meaning the overall movement of the market’s stock follows the market sentiment directly. To quote a popular Wall Street phrase: “all boats float or sink with the tide.” The more investors buy, the more investors buy; it’s usually exponential development.
This of course could happen indefinitely, if it weren’t for the fact that as stock trading volumes rise, as does the price. Eventually the price hits a market high and the potential for profits is minimized. At this point the fall to a bearish market usually comes to fruition. On the other hand, as trading volumes fall, prices go down, to the point where eventually the price is so low it would be foolish not to buy, therefore turning the market on its head.
As obvious as it may seem, the words bullish and bearish reflect exactly what you would expect and are not simply paraphrases. An optimistic investor, happy to buy, buy, buy as the market sentiment is bullish, is considered a bull; aggressive, optimistic and almost reckless, striking upwards with its horns. Equally a bearish investor is considered a bear because he or she does not trade without utmost consideration, he or she is pessimistic towards trading expectations and believes prices will fall, or fall further than they already have. The bear therefore decides to sell, sell, sell, and pushes the prices down; as a bear that strikes its paws to the ground.
Make sure you check one of our top read features ‘The Top 10 Greatest Stock Market Trades Ever’.
Global middle market organizations, companies with annual revenues of USD 1 million -USD 3 billion, are showing no signs of slowing down in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. Over one-third (34%) of middle market companies plan to grow 6%-10% this year, far outpacing the latest World Bank global GDP growth forecasts of 2.7%, by more than 3%-7%.
The findings released today in the EY Growth Barometer, a first-of-its-kind survey of 2,340 middle market executives across 30 countries, reveal that in spite of geopolitical tensions, including Brexit, increasing populism, the rise of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) and skilled talent shortages, 89% of executives see today's uncertainty as grounds for growth opportunities. What's more, 14% of all companies surveyed have current year growth ambitions of more than 16%.
Annette Kimmitt, EY Global Growth Markets Leader, says: "The global economic backdrop is much stronger than what the prevailing narrative has been telling us. Despite geopolitical risks and uncertainties, businesses being disrupted through new technologies and globalization rewriting the rules of supply and demand, middle market leaders are not only attuned to uncertainty, but are seizing it to grow, disrupt other markets and drive their growth agendas."
Growth ambitions vary across geographies
Despite facing two years of Brexit negotiations, start-ups (companies under five years old) headquartered in the UK are displaying the highest levels of confidence of the countries surveyed. UK start-ups are the most positive on current year growth ambitions with 26% seeking to grow by 11-25% and a further 23% looking at year-on-year growth of more than 26%.
But when looking at the largest markets, there are significant differences between the world's largest economy, the US where slightly more than a third (35%) of all companies plan modest growth increases of under 5%, compared to the world's two tiger economies – China and India – where together 42% of companies are targeting growth rates of 6%-10%. Moreover, a quarter (25%) of companies in tiger economies have current year growth plans of 11%-15%.
Technology and talent top the agenda
Executives identified technology and talent not only as the top two challenges facing the middle market C-suite today, but they are also seen as the tools by which they will overcome challenges and remain agile. Talent (23%) is cited as the top priority ahead of improved operations (21%), cutting red tape (12%) and beneficial agreements (8%) in a ranking of what is critical to meeting current growth ambitions. A staggering 93% of executives see technology as a means of attracting the talent they need. New developments in artificial intelligence (AI) are improving the recruitment and selection process for innovative start-ups to find specialist talent.
To fuel the growth ambitions of their organizations, more than a quarter (27%) of middle market executives plan to increase their permanent headcount and a further 14% plan to increase the number of part-time staff. Reflecting the growing impact of the gig economy on work patterns and a move to a more contingent, skills-based workforce, almost one in five (18%) companies plan to use contractors to help power their high-growth plans and fill specific gaps or needs.
However, under these global results lie significant differences in hiring plans. A majority of US companies (55%) plan to keep current staffing levels flat, compared with 31% of all respondents. These plans are almost reversed among start-ups, 53% of which plan increases in full-time staff. Nearly a quarter (23%) of all start-ups are also the most likely of all organizations to plan to hire more contractors or freelancers.
Kimmitt says: "Middle market leaders are using technology to attract and retain talent, accelerate growth, improve productivity and increase profitability. Uncertainty has become the new normal, and while geopolitical risks and trade barriers are influential factors, middle market companies are moving ahead with hiring plans."
RPA does not spell RIP to talent
While only 6% of middle market organizations are already using robotic process automation (RPA) for some business processes, the dystopian vision of large-scale layoffs is not shared by these business leaders. Fifteen percent of all middle market executive respondents believe that adoption of RPA will result in headcount reductions of less than 10%. This illustrates that middle market leaders are planning on the selective adoption of RPA to bring efficiencies to some routine operations, but as an adjunct to human talent, not a replacement.
Macro risks to growth
Middle market leaders cited increasing competition (20%) as the number one external threat to their growth plans, followed by geopolitical instability (17%) and the cost and availability of credit (12%). These threats were considered far more significant than financial headwinds of rising interest rates (8%), foreign exchange variance (8%) or commodity price volatility (6%). Leaders were twice as likely to cite competition (20%) as a risk than slow global growth (10%).
High-growth entrepreneurs are even more optimistic
As part of the EY Growth Barometer, the survey also measured 220 alumni of EY's widely-acclaimed Entrepreneur Of The Year program. Active for more than 30 years, the network has programs in more than 60 countries and 145 cities worldwide supporting high-growth entrepreneurs.
High-growth entrepreneurs are planning significantly higher growth rates than overall middle market leaders, with one in five planning to grow by 6%-10%, a further 20% by 11%-15% and yet a further one in five by 16%-25%. Nearly one in four (22%) high-growth entrepreneurs are planning current year growth of more than 26%. Additionally, almost two-thirds (61%) of this group plan increases in full-time staff and 9% plan increases in the use of contingent or gig economy workers.
Kimmitt says: "Middle market companies are the engines for global growth, representing nearly 99% of all enterprise and contributing nearly 45% to global GDP. But high-growth entrepreneurs are not only more ambitious in setting growth targets, but prioritize differently from other mid-market leaders and businesses. High-growth entrepreneurs are not fazed by the kinds of seismic shocks that Brexit and other geopolitical upheavals present. They are developing agile and flexible strategies to work with uncertainty as the new normal."
(Source: EY)
According to the annual Business Pulse Survey by SunTrust Banks, Inc., nearly two-thirds of business leaders expect the global and US economy to improve through 2017. Even more optimistic about their own companies, as 75% of middle market (annual revenue of $10-150 million) and small business (annual revenue of $2-10 million) leaders feel their business outlook is strong. Both segments have high expectations for healthcare (46%) and tax reform (44%) as a catalyst for growth. Mid-market leaders also cite reducing regulations (39%) and investments in infrastructure (37%) as ways to spur business momentum.
"This year, business leaders are feeling very prepared to take advantage of growth opportunities, 75% believe they have access to the critical capital needed," said Allison Dukes, Commercial and Business Banking executive at SunTrust. "Three out of four have a goal-setting process linked to long-term growth strategies and are comfortable that they will achieve their goals."
In 2017, the short term priority for 31% of mid-market companies is profitability, a 29% increase since 2016; while 34% of small businesses are focused on revenue, a 54% increase from last year.
Looking out five years, introducing a new product or service is still the top long-term strategy to stimulate growth for both mid-market (40%) and small business leaders (31%), while making a major capital investment (31%) and acquiring another company (17%) is a greater priority for the mid-market. To undertake these initiatives, common strategies include using cash on hand, reducing costs, obtaining a bank loan and reinvesting corporate earnings.
"Over the past four years, businesses in the small and mid-markets have taken incremental steps toward growing their companies, including M&A, hiring, and improving cash flow. At SunTrust, our purpose is to Light the Way to Financial Well-Being for our clients, and we have been working with them to ensure they have the tools and capabilities to grow their business in a smart way. Now, they see an opportunity for significant structural changes in taxes and regulations to unleash additional business growth," added Dukes.
Decision-makers representing more than 500 small and mid-size businesses participated in the SunTrust/Radius Global Market Research survey. Survey results have a maximum margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points at a 90% confidence level.
(Source: SunTrust Banks, Inc.)
Winans Investments has created a history book, ‘Investment Atlas II’, which examines all US presidents since 1849 and how stocks, bonds and housing performed during their terms.
Their research has found compelling comparisons to past presidential elections. In the wake of Trump's victory, the media is focusing on parallels with "Give 'em Hell" Harry Truman's surprise 1948 victory over Thomas Dewey, or the "Hanging Chad" mess of 2000 that required the US Supreme Court to rule in favor of George W. Bush.
However, investors should focus on the Carter-Reagan transition of 1980-81 in which the 9% post-election stock market rally ushered in one of the greatest investment booms in US history!
While today's economic picture is not identical to the 1980's (especially when it comes to the level of interest rates and inflation), there are Reagan/Trump positive similarities that investors need to know:
Lower Business Taxes- Since 1913, US corporate income taxes have ranged between 1% - 53% with the current tax rate at 36%. The Trump plan to reduce business income taxes to 15% would be the largest tax cut for corporate America ever! Bottom-line: lower business taxes suddenly makes US stocks attractively valued versus other global investments.
Reduced Regulations - The regulatory pendulum is swinging away from post-Great Recession punishment towards deregulation in order to spur economic growth. This has caused a large shift in stock market leadership towards financial services, manufacturing and energy shares.
Lower Investor Taxes - In addition to a proposed reduction in individual top tax rates from 40% to 30%, investment related taxes (capital gains, dividends, etc.) are likely going to be substantially reduced. The Trump plan also calls for phasing out the Obamacare investment tax and lowering tax rates for short-term capital gains.
Stronger US Dollar - As economic growth expands, a country's currency should increase in value. Similar to the US dollar's historic rally in 1985, demand for foreign purchases of US stock, bond and real estate investments should boom!
There are other positive economic developments to also consider:
Gradual Interest Rate Increases - It appears that the Federal Reserve will not make the mistakes it made in the late 1930's when it mishandled exiting its Depression Era "0% interest rate" policy and triggered the Roosevelt Recession. Today, inflation pressures are relatively low, and the process of raising the Fed Fund's Rate ¼ point at a time will gradually return the US to a normalized interest rate environment while economic growth accelerates in a healthy manner.
Republican Controlled Congress - Unlike Reagan, who faced challenges from a Democrat controlled Congress through his entire presidency, Trump should have a faster & easier time enacting much of his pro-business agenda over the next two years.
Lots of Fuel For an Extended Bull Market - Since 2008, many investors have kept large amounts of cash in money market accounts and CDs. As the economy expands over the next few years, much of this money could be invested in US stocks. There could also be an investment shift from low yielding municipal and treasury bonds into US equities.
With the Trump administration's ambitious economic agenda, US common stocks should greatly outperform income investments and could achieve annual returns not seen since 1990's average annual returns of 19%!
What Should Investors do?
Investors that do not need investment income and have an average tolerance to financial risk should consider reallocating their portfolios into more US common stocks.
However, any reallocation into more stocks is not without risk. Historically, US common stocks have negative years 27% of the time and serious bear markets 8% of the time (like the 50% corrections suffered in the Dotcom Bust of 2000-02 and 2008-09's Great Recession). Simply put, any decision to increase exposure into more stocks must include a disciplined plan to exit the stock market when key market indicators turn negative in the future.
(Source: Winans Investments)
