Everyone’s been saying for quite a while now that drones are going to take over, the technology will be used for flying cars and we’ll be delivering almost everything via drone, but is that really the case or are we too excited to see the obstacles ahead? William Sachiti, The Academy of Robotics explains to Finance Monthly that there is a more realistic perspective.

Drones are the future of home delivery! Or at least that is what I used to believe. They appear to be an efficient means of transporting items from one location to another. My mind ran wild, picturing a drone superhighway! I was keen to establish a dedicated airspace for drones to self-navigate, and to deliver packages to customers.

But… and there is a big but. Such a big one, I no longer believe drones are the future. The issue is not technical – it is social.

The Social challenges

The more I researched, I began to realise the safety defects of a cluttered airspace, peppered with flying machines, often controlled by amateur operators. Not to mention the cost of achieving this drone superhighway in the sky.

These issues have already been encountered by Amazon, which is currently leading the way with drone delivery. For example, the retail giant must house drones near to population centres in order to be more efficient than road-based delivery.

Now imagine your neighbour’s daily impulse-buys being delivered by a very loud drone, the novelty would fade fast. Imagine the sound of a washing machine spinner at full-belt during unpredictable hours of the day, waking up your kids and spooking your spaniel. Take it a step further and imagine living near a big retailer’s drone delivery centre. The noise and intrusion could be worse than living under the Heathrow flight path.

I had initially overlooked our roads – thinking of them as ‘the past’ and drones as ‘the future’ – but I no longer believe that to be the case. Ultimately, road-based delivery using driverless vehicles is far safer, quieter and more cost effective than the seemingly futuristic, yet comparably less-practical drone courier services.  It is easy to forget that we haven’t fully tapped the potential of our road networks – public, unmarked and residential. And autonomous vehicles present the opportunity to tap into and make better use of the infrastructure we already have.

So what form will deliveries of the future take?

Judging by early designs and models, autonomous delivery vehicles, will take diverse forms.

Italy’s Piaggio Fast Forward - a subsidiary of Vespa manufacturers, Piaggio - has invented a cylindrical luggage compartment capable of tailing its owner by a few metres, while holding up to 18km of cargo.  This clearly shows the value of wheels on the road.

Mole Solutions is ignoring both road and air for something completely different: below-ground freight capsules. Thrown into the delivery mix, such an invention could help to reduce road (and air) traffic congestion, as well as keeping out of sight.

Pelipod on the other hand, is seeking to cater specifically to businesses that need efficient, secure and direct delivery. Bypassing post offices, courier firms and depots, the firm is pioneering delivery pods that will travel straight to the destination. Integrated electronic systems will grant access to only authorised users, and provide proof of delivery.

And Kar-Go, the driverless delivery vehicle from my own Academy of Robotics, will autonomously navigate unmarked roads such as residential areas, and use an intelligent package management system to deliver packages to retail customers, day or night.

So, road vehicles will still be the primary force for delivering packages but they’ll come in all shapes and sizes.

Delivery beyond the physical

Looking beyond the first incarnations of autonomous vehicles and towards the far-future of delivery, I believe product delivery will be digital. Driverless vehicles, and smart devices in general, will benefit from 5G mobile technology. With so many devices feeding data into the Internet of Things (IoT), devices are able to communicate and act in unison.  Autonomous vehicles for instance, will be able to communicate with one another, and other road users.

Let’s put digital delivery into context. 25 years ago, the only way to send a document to someone was to have it physically delivered. With a little help from technology, the same document could, just a few years later, be sent via fax; scattered into bits of information, sent across the world and re-assembled in a matter of minutes.

As technology improved, sending a document moved from minutes, to seconds to an instant. So, if delivery of physical goods continues to incrementally improve over time, it’s not unrealistic to imagine that your latest smartphone could one day not be physically sent to you at all.

Instead, it could be purchased via a digital download and, through some 3D printer/fax machine-hybrid, be re-assembled in your living room. Of course, we can’t expect to see such an invention anytime soon. Technological advancements – despite accelerations in the digital age – are gradual.

And finally

With giants like Google, Tesla and Uber counted among the early adopters of self-driving cars, you can bet that the overwhelming majority of future vehicles, whether transporting people or packages, will be driverless.

When consumers are ordering compost from the garden centre, supermarket groceries or pretty much anything from the online superstores, you can bet that, regardless off the type of delivery vehicle, the driver will be digital.

JLL has launched ‘More than the last mile’, a research report which examines how smarter logistics will help shape cities in the future. Commenting on JLL’s report, Andy Harding, lead director of JLL’s Industrial & Logistics Group, said: “Spurred by the growth of e-commerce and demand for last-mile fulfilment facilities, there has been increasing interest in urban logistics among property developers and investors. However, this is only a part of the story, as the issues associated with logistics in cities are much wider than servicing e-commerce growth. Cities present many challenges but also significant opportunities for real estate in the future. We believe that environmental and efficiency challenges will transform logistics operations in Europe’s major cities.”

Key JLL research highlights include:

• Anticipated rise in demand for different types of logistics facilities, including transhipment facilities (where goods can be transferred onto environmentally friendly vehicles); shared-user consolidation centres; local facilities for last mile fulfilment; multi-storey buildings and underground facilities.
• A need to find new models of city logistics which are sustainable and maximise efficiency while minimising adverse environmental and social impacts, such as air pollution and noise.
• Developing technologies have the potential to address both efficiency and environmental objectives but there are no immediate quick wins.
• Old technologies should not be ignored as partial solutions may be found by looking ‘back to the future’, including, for example, the use of rail or bicycles.
• Increased night-time deliveries in cities would make more effective use of the transport network at times when it has capacity and would cut down peak traffic impacts.
• Logistical considerations need to be at the forefront of city planning and building design.
• Warehouses and suitable land for logistics activities will remain critical for efficient city logistics but if these activities are pushed too far out of the cities they service, this will drive up ‘stem distances’ (from warehouse to customers) and potentially emissions.
• Varying interests of the different stakeholders in city logistics need to be addressed in order to identify new approaches that satisfy all of them.
• Logistics in cities present big opportunities for real estate developers and investors due to strong demand and supply dynamics.

Jon Sleeman, JLL’s head of EMEA Industrial & Logistics Research, added: “From a property market perspective, city or urban logistics buildings are often considered a separate market segment, distinct from ‘big box’ logistics properties, that are mainly clustered at Europe’s major gateways (seaports and airports), along its strategic transport corridors and around its major cities. This segmentation may be valid from a property market viewpoint, but these different types of property are often part of the same supply chains. This being the case, to understand potential opportunities for change in city logistics, we need to take a wider supply chain perspective.”

(Source: JLL)