The UK housing market has been particularly volatile over the last few years. In 2022, house prices soared into the stratosphere. The rush of people willing to buy and sell caused quite a stir. Then, inevitably, everything cooled off. House prices dipped and people stopped submitting for mortgages in such high volumes. There was also the much-maligned, market-scaring “mini-budget” and the ripple effects that it caused.
As the housing market is used as a measure of national economic health, its rather slow rate of recovery has been of particular interest to economists. Perhaps with the sudden rush of price increases, a slower recovery after bottoming out in 2023 was to be expected. In any case, there are now promising signs. Looking at key indicators, it appears as though the market’s getting ready to heat up. Many key conditions are certainly in place to do so.

A return to growth is hinted at over the next year

On 11 April, a new snapshot from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors was showcased. It demonstrated that property prices stabilised in March. This is according to the report from The Guardian. As a result, house prices are tipped to return to growth. The growth is expected to be seen over the next 12 months. Helping this growth is inflation's decline. Plus, buyer demand continued to rise.

The UK House Price Index did signal a 0.6 per cent decrease in its recent report. Looking at January 2023 to January 2024, there was this dip. However, from December 2023 to January 2024, house prices averaged a 1.1 per cent uptick. The market tends to see more action in the spring months. March is usually hailed as the best time to sell, for example. So, strong March figures could hint at momentum continuing.

In the first three months of 2024, demand for mortgages went up. This aligns with March being a top month for the housing market. On the index from the Bank of England, there was a positive 35.9 increase on the index. This is when comparing firms reporting less demand versus more demand for home loans. It’s another key indicator of confidence in the market returning.

Other conditions worth noting for market recovery

Credit: Valentina Locatelli on Unsplash.

What may play an underlying role in the gradual housing market recovery are the new options for buyers. Recently, more online real estate agents have risen to the fore. Ready to be competitive as a UK operator, some even offer no hidden fees and free cash offers within minutes. Online estate agent We Buy Any Home uses these as key selling points. They also give users the chance to guarantee a sale at a time that suits them.

It makes for a very user-friendly entry point to the market. The idea of selling quickly or at the customer’s own pace is also appealing to many. Those who want a quick sale can even look to that near-instant offer. On top of this, property shortages and rampaging second homeowners and landlords ensure high prices. Then, there’s the decrease in the UK Inflation Rate. It’s now down to 3.4 per cent from 10.40 per cent the year prior.

So, there are indicators that the UK’s housing market is on the up.

The Bank of England is tasked with creating inflation every year. Inflation erodes the value of money – prices rise – and our wages don’t always keep up with the cost of living. So who benefits from this policy and who pays? We know who pays for inflation.  It’s the young people saving for a deposit who have those savings eroded, while first home prices are pushed further out of reach. House prices in the UK have benefited from dramatic inflation over the past fifty years and this has meant more and more people are left behind. What’s more, rents are going up and, right now, household bills are going ballistic.  Inflation drives the abject misery of ‘heating or eating’. 

Who benefits from rising inflation?

Governments tend to favour inflation as it erodes the real cost of repaying government debt; the warfare and welfare won’t cost quite so much to pay for if we inflate the debt away. Inflation can work as a stealth tax, by freezing a tax band so that more people must pay at that rate of tax. It can also be a stealthy way of reducing current expenditure; nurses get a rise, but not by quite as much as the real inflation rate. 

Those of us who own houses and other assets quietly know that we are at least protected from inflation.  In fact, our house prices always seem to go up by more than the official rate of inflation.  The property guys see their rents increasing, with the value of their buildings increasing too and the real value of what they owe the bank falling. Property is a good gig.  Inflation works for the banks as well.  They can lend more against rising property values and are protected should they ever need to rely on the value of their security.  Banking is a good gig too. Is there an inherent problem that the Bank of England should preside over a policy that seems to suit its industry?  

Inflation is the ultimate regressive tax

Inflation takes money from poorer people and transfers it to those with wealth, as well as to the government.  It enables governments to behave irresponsibly in relation to running up debts.  In enacting this policy and indeed in letting inflation get completely out of hand, the Bank of England is behaving as a latter-day Sheriff of Nottingham.

Moreover, the Bank of England is uniquely well placed amongst central banks to start getting a grip on inflation.  Through quantitative easing and suppressing interest rates, the bank has helped keep the Sterling at its lowest sustained value since the founding of the bank.  In such a free trading country as the UK – where we import much of the products we use – an improvement in our exchange rate against other major currencies would have the immediate impact of reducing inflation. 

The fact that the Bank has operated such a loose monetary policy in a period when the UK economy has been growing reasonably well and has record levels of employment is extraordinary.

It is almost as if the bank is trying to wilfully exceed its inflationary remit.

We are so used to inflation in our lives that it is easy to forget that it has not always been like this.  In the 100 years between the battle of Waterloo and the outbreak of WW1 the pound gained about 5% in value.  This marginal deflation is perhaps not surprising given the extraordinary advancement in technology and spread in trade that enabled many items in the shopping basket to become cheaper.  As always, for most people, the largest item in that basket was the rent or purchase of their home. The Victorians managed to reduce the cost of an average home from 14 times the average household income at the beginning of the 19th Century to three times by the end.

By contrast, in the 100+ years since the outbreak of WW1 - rather than gaining in value - the pound lost over 95% of its value.  Where a pound would buy 20 loaves of bread in 1914, it now doesn’t buy one.  Average house prices are back at nearly 10 times average household incomes.  The Victorians would have been proud of our amazing technological innovation and increase in trade.  They would have been horrified at how we have allowed much of the social benefit of economic success to be eaten away by inflation.  That inflation is a government policy is shameful. That inflationary policy has been allowed to get completely out of hand is criminal. 

Inflation got going in the West as a by-product of paying for the two world wars and later for the Vietnam war.  It became a policy of governments as it suits their desire for us to live beyond our means.  It simultaneously suited financiers and property people too.  A strange marriage of the state and capital that normally appear to be opposites in our society.

Final thoughts

I am not so sure the Bank of England shouldn’t be tasked with a policy of deflation.  House prices would become more affordable for Millennials and Gen Z. This could help reverse a long-running decline in homeownership.  Rents might fall.  A policy to undo some inflation would be novel.  Who would benefit and who would pay?

About the author: Sebastian Chambers is the author of The A-Z of Inequality, published by White Fox, priced at £10.00 and available at Amazon.co.uk.

According to Halifax’s monthly index, property prices reached new record highs on eight occasions last year, hitting their greatest record-high so far in December 2021 at £276,091. Annually, the average UK house price grew by 9.8% and by 1.1% month-on-month in December. However, Halifax’s report added that house price growth is expected to slow considerably in 2022. 

“UK house prices climbed again in December for the sixth month in a row, rising by 1.1%,” said Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax. 

“The average price for a property now stands at £276,091, an increase of more than £24,500 compared to December 2020, marking the strongest year-on-year cash rise since March 2003 [...] The housing market defied expectations in 2021, with quarterly growth reaching 3.5% in December, a level not seen since November 2006.”

According to Halifax, the average house price in December 2021 in the East Midlands stood at £225,106, while Eastern England hit £319,447. In London, the average house price for December was £525,351, £159,694 in the North East of the country, and £211,954 in the North West of the country. Scotland saw an average of £192,988 for December, while Wales saw an average of £205,579. 

According to Nationwide’s latest house price index, annual house price growth was strong in November at 10%, a figure that slightly exceeds the 9.9% recorded in October. Month-on-month, prices were up 0.9%, taking into account seasonal effects.

While in October the average house price in the UK sat at $250,311, this figure rose to £252,687 in November. 

So far in 2021, the number of housing transactions has already exceeded the number recorded in 2020. The number of mortgage approvals in October sat above the monthly average for 2019. However, there have already been signs of activity in the housing market slowing again. In October, for example, the number of property transactions was down nearly 30% year-on-year.  

It also remains unclear what impact the Omicron variant will have on the country’s economy. Although November saw consumer confidence stabilise, sentiment is still significantly below the levels seen throughout the summer.

2021 is expected to mark the country’s busiest property market in 14 years in terms of property transactions, as homeowners seek out more living space amid the pandemic. This is according to Zoopla’s latest house price index. 

Zoopla’s data reveals that, by the end of 2021, 1 in 16 houses will have changed hands, making this year the busiest property market since 2007. 

High demand is pushing up the rate of annual house price growth, which is tailing at 6.9%, up from 3.5% in October 2020. Nonetheless, the growth marks a slight easing back from the growth above 7% seen in August and September. A slowdown in the overall pace of growth is also indicated by the data. 

The average value of a home in the UK now stands at £240,000, up from £200,000 five years ago. The past 12 months alone have seen the average price increase by £15,500. 

While buyer demand is currently 28% above the 5-year average, the supply of homes being put up for sale in 2021 has been running between 5% - 10% below the averages seen in 2017 and 2019. 

However, despite some interest rate rises, it is likely that mortgage rates will stay relatively low compared to long-run averages. Additionally, there is also greater space for price growth across some of the country’s most affordable housing markets. 

The warning by Zoopla comes as the average price of houses in the UK rose by 7.6% over the last 12 months. Despite this, buyer demand remained strong in July, up 20.5% compared to the 2020 average. 

Zoopla has said that stock levels are down 26.4% compared to last year’s average and down 33% compared with the pre-pandemic markets of 2018 and 2019. 

New property listings are currently 5% below average since the beginning of 2021. Increased activity amongst investors and first-time buyers is absorbing stock but failing to replenish it. The increased number of sales over the past 12 months has eroded supply. 1 in 20 homes changed hands over the past year, while in 2019, this was 1 in 25 homes. This has seen competition among buyers ramp up throughout the second half of 2020 and 2021. On average, it took 49 days for a property to sell two years ago. In 2021, this average has dropped down to just 26 days.

However, Zoopla expects that once the impact of the stamp duty holiday wears off and government incentive is withdrawn, stock levels will gradually begin to repair.

Pent-up demand during the initial phases of the pandemic, changing preferences among homebuyers, and the Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) holiday combined to fuel this market growth. The result was a well-documented rise in property prices and transactional activity.

Now, as we look cautiously towards a return to ‘normality’ over the coming months, the question of the national debt is rising to the fore. Of course, with such extreme financial support measures required for businesses and consumers alike, this issue was inevitable. And it is the bullish property sector that could come under the microscope or, more specifically, the way property transactions are taxed. It is an apt time, then, to delve deeper into the subject of stamp duty––something that has seldom strayed from the media spotlight over the past year given the Government’s aforementioned temporary tax break. 

A short background

For me, any discussion of SDLT requires us to first appreciate its history, which is often overlooked. Most notably, we must acknowledge the fact that the tax as we recognise it today is younger than those who pay it. Though it is considered an inevitability and has roots in broader goods taxes going back centuries, the SDLT functioning as a simple tax on land transactions and paid by the buying party came into effect via the Finance Act 2003.In the following 18 years, the tax has been numerously tweaked and complexified to suit the needs of the market and the national economy.

The most significant of these was the introduction of bands, and rates within them. Formerly the tax had been a percentage calculated by the total cost of the transaction. In December 2014, this was reformed to a banded system with a nil-rate on transactions up to £125,000 and a top rate threshold of 15% for properties changing hands for over £500,000.

The SDLT has also been slimmed down and reinforced to stimulate or cool activity amongst certain types of transactions. For instance, domestic purchasers of second homes, and residential purchases by non-UK residents are subject to surcharges of 3% and 2%, respectively. Meanwhile, first-time buyers can access reduced rates, including an extension of the nil-rate to £300,000. Accordingly, the SDLT can be considered a somewhat flexible tax––constantly evolving in its function, eligibility, and revenue generation utility. As a result, many will conclude that a more permanent reform of this tax may shortly follow.

Areas for further change

Depending on state priorities, the most likely change will be an adjustment in bands and rates. It would be productive in the short term to consider a modest increase in the nil-rate band to account for purchases in higher-priced urban areas, where first-time buyers will typically still need to pay the tax. Equally, a reduced top rate could do much to entice back to UK shores the flow of international investment that was stifled by the pandemic’s travel restrictions. This seems less likely, however, particularly in light of the recently introduced surcharge on overseas buyers, as noted above. 

What we can say with more certainty is that further reform is in the offing. House prices have been on the rise consistently for more than a decade, and the pandemic spike has accelerated this trend––the average house price was estimated to have reached £261,743 in June, a rise of 9.5% in just 12 months. As prices rise and rise, the stamp duty bands are likely to undergo changes of their own. There is a range of more creative ideas for reform that are frequently thrown around. Some have called for the tax to be levied onto the selling party, rather than the buyer. Others consider alternative systems used abroad to be more favourable and equitable. For example, introducing an annual tax based on land value, which could stimulate developers and speed the pace of regeneration in the UK’s under-invested provinces.

Naturally, any reform to the SDLT will evoke strong reactions from those with a vested interest in the sector. While the robust health of the property market has been heartening for investors during this difficult period, new priorities are beginning to emerge as growth and confidence return to other markets. Accordingly, with consideration to rising public debt and the need for a sure-footed post-pandemic recovery, it will be intriguing to see how SDLT reform is handled over the coming months.

About the author: Alpa Bhakta is the CEO of Butterfield Mortgages Limited. Part of the Butterfield Group and a subsidiary of The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited. Butterfield Mortgages Limited is a London-based prime property mortgage provider with a particular focus on the needs of UK and international HNWIs.

According to Zoopla’s latest house price index, buyers are now paying an average of £230,700 for a home in the UK. House prices increased by 5.4% in the year to June, although experts at Zoopla have suggested that the figure could begin to fall as the stamp duty holiday and the government’s furlough scheme come to an end. 

Commenting on the situation, Jamie Johnson, CEO of FJP Investment, said: “The property market’s remarkable 12 months is clear for all to see, with Zoopla’s latest house price index underlying just how strong the growth has been. A pandemic-induced “race for space”, coupled with the stamp duty holiday, has obviously driven buyer demand to new highs, which has evidently been compounded by limited supply.

“The question on everyone’s lips is if, or when, the bubble will burst. For me, there is no question it will burst, probably in about a year’s time. But this is not an issue and must be seen in context - it is perfectly normal as markets recalibrate and reset.

"People will always need property, and bricks and mortar will remain an attractive investment in the UK. For now, however, it is a question of timing one’s move, whether that’s as a first-time buyer or someone building a property portfolio. We may see more growth before the market deflates - and it will then rise again. Buyers and sellers must choose when to act and it will be fascinating to see how the rest of 2021 unfolds."

Business growth consultant Daniel Groves shares his predictions for the post-pandemic property market with Finance Monthly.

Everyone with an interest in property is asking the same questions as you. So, in today’s article, we are going to share our top seven post-pandemic predictions for the property market so that you can know what to expect. 

House Prices Hit A Record High

Early last year, the coronavirus pandemic set the property market spinning when the country was forced to lockdown for months on end, seeing more people than ever before put their moving plans on hold. Since the latest easing of lockdown restrictions paired with the economy slowly picking up, buyers can expect to face the highest ever property prices. Furthermore, Gary Whitehead from Town & Country Mortgage Services says, “The market has been stimulated by so many positive things all coming together at once, such as the government stamp duty incentive, the return of 95% LTV mortgages again, all [of this] brings further confidence back to what was already a very buoyant marketplace,” says Whitehead. “So many buyers simply needing more space, a garden, an office to work from home, etc, has meant the scramble for property has left a shortage of housing stock, meaning demand is outstripping supply which will always drive up prices. We feel this trend is set to continue in the short term at least until the world gets back to a ‘new-norm'".  So, if you’re looking to buy and have the means, you’ll need to be quick off the mark and ready to move more swiftly than ever before to secure a new property. 

More Overseas Property Investors 

For the property market to recover in a post-lockdown world, we expect to see a rise in overseas buyers coming to aid in our time of financial instability. Property experts suspect there will be further investments from Asia and the Middle East into the UK’s property market, and, in a post-lockdown landscape, their investments will be welcomed with open arms. Investments into new home developments and the construction sector are also expected to boom post-lockdown, providing that extra income our economy desperately needs to get back on track. 

Country Locations Increase In Popularity 

As remote working has dominated the UK throughout the coronavirus pandemic, with many businesses shutting their office spaces for good, many people are moving away from the cities and into the countryside. Interest in rural locations has increased significantly as people seek more space for a driveway and a garden or perhaps even an outhouse to convert into a remote office space. 

More Space For Remote Workers 

Speaking of remote workers, after almost a year closed indoors, working from the kitchen table or at the end of the bed, people are longing for more space to enjoy.  Working from home can be a lot, especially without a dedicated office space. And with remote working set to continue for the long-term, the desire for more space will encourage homeowners to seek out larger properties with more bedrooms and a garden. As such, properties with spare bedrooms that can be transformed into remote offices are predicted to be in high demand. 

Property Viewings Set To Change 

While this has already changed during the lockdown, property viewings are set to be even more impacted as agents have to adapt the way they market homes in a post-lockdown world. Social distancing will be mandatory, as will facemasks, but many estate agents will also need to increase their technical abilities to provide virtual viewings for the long term. In a post-lockdown world, we estimate that virtual viewings will be here to stay. While there is no comparison to seeing a property in person, virtual viewings allow buyers to get a sense of a property virtually before visiting in person, saving time for both the seller and the agent. 

A Delay In Rent Payments 

Lockdown has had a severe impact on businesses around the UK, causing even some of the biggest brands to close their doors to customers for good. The multiple lockdowns and numerous restrictions have caused a rise in rent arrears for retail properties. This has meant many landlords have had to miss or defer one to two-quarters of rent payments. This is expected to be a long-term trend that will possibly cause a knock-on effect on the capital value of many retail properties.  As we enter a post-lockdown world, we hope that shops will start to reopen their doors but imagine uptake will be slow as people brave human contact again and shopping in-person slowly increases. 

Commercial Spaces Transformed Into Residential 

The number of remote workers in the UK has never been higher. Due to lockdown, office workers have retreated to their homes to work, leaving many commercial spaces empty. This is having a significant effect on property values and could influence the commercial sector significantly. The office market has always adapted to the changing environment. However, as London has seen many of its offices close permanently as remote working is accepted for the long term, many commercial spaces are being transformed back into residential properties to help close the financial gap. 

Final Thoughts

The coronavirus pandemic has seen the world live through unprecedented times, causing upheavals to every element of our personal, working, and social lives – and the housing market has not gone unscathed. However, it will be interesting to see how property markets adapt to these post-pandemic times. If our estimations are correct, we could be seeing a lot more changes over the coming months, so watch this space.

Over the last few months, house price hiking has had a dramatic slowdown, highlighting a drop in gears for the property market in the UK. ONS statistics show that over the past 12 months, price increases have seen smaller figures in several UK regions.

Before the slowdown the average increase sat at around 15% yoy, however this is still much less than April 2000 when the yearly growth hit 28.3%.

This slowdown now has an effect on buyers who have until now been hit with steep prices and a lesser equal rise in savings interest.

This week Finance Monthly hears Your Thoughts on the slowdown and how it affects the public, the economy and the housing sector in the UK.

Jonathan Hopper, Managing Director, Garrington Property Finders:

This week’s official house price figures suggest the slowdown is sharper and started earlier than first thought.

April’s surprise election announcement applied a dab to the property market's brakes, but this data confirms it had already dropped down a gear in March.

While the speed and severity of the fall in annual price growth – down to its lowest level for more than three years – will alarm some sellers, such national averages mask the wildly different conditions at opposite ends of the market.

Properties in some regions continue to see double-digit price reductions, while at certain price points in the most in-demand areas, gazumping is back with a vengeance.

Nevertheless the broader trend is undeniable. East Anglia’s gravity defying, double-digit rates of price inflation are a thing of the past and it has been forced to share its ‘fastest growing region’ crown with the East Midlands.

Even London finds itself in a position it is unaccustomed to – close to the bottom of the pile.

The chronic shortage of supply is still propping up prices in many areas and mitigating the slowdown. But this snapshot of a slowing market – taken before the election announcement – confirms what many in the industry had feared. For the housing market, the snap election has come at just the wrong time – injecting an unwelcome dose of uncertainty into an already fragile market.

Nevertheless the lull could be short-lived. If the election delivers a clear result that puts Brexit firmly back on track, the property market could receive a huge boost, freeing up more supply and with greater levels of clarity spurring discretionary buyers into action.

Matthew Cooke, Residential Development Director, YOPA:

For me it’s a question of choosing the short or long game. Playing the short game is going to be challenging, until the fallout of Brexit becomes clear. However if you look at the history of the UK property market, it’s performed consistently as one of the most robust on the planet, just like the economy. Although we are in a soft patch the fundamentals remain the same - there are more buyers looking than quality stock available.

Investors - particularly Asian and Americans where the currency is strong against the GBP - have a superb opportunity to enter the UK market at a more attractive price. Although we are enduring turbulence presently, especially across London new homes and PCL, there are significant reasons to buy for those looking beyond the next two years. London remains a global financial, technology and cultural gateway city.

There’s a silver lining in the form of an advantage for first time buyers in this gear shift. Mortgage rates are low, and they aren’t fighting off as many investors as market reforms, Brexit and stamp duty changes on second homes make there presence known. Price increases have also reduced and sellers are more prepared to negotiate.

For upsizers - I think it’s still a good time to sell. Yes it’ll sting if you end up having to accept £10k less on your property than you’d hoped for, but you can always offset by passing the pain up the chain. Now is a superb time to negotiate yourself the dream family home.

Mark Homer, Co-Founder, Progressive Property:

House prices have continued to fall in Prime London and growth has continued to moderate outside of the M25 with the Midlands and North showing reduced growth too. Overall UK house price growth has slowed to 4.1% in the year to March 2017. With much of the rest of the UK playing catch up to the huge growth in Central London since 2010 the market appears to be taking a breather.

Increased Stamp duty on buy to let properties, 2nd homes and higher end properties from March 2016 has had a negative effect on transaction volumes along with the uncertainties which have been created around Brexit and the UK's future relationship with Europe.

Interestingly, first time buyer purchases have increased since the stamp duty changes showing that the government’s policies to encourage these purchases over those of landlords appear to be working. With some lender’s mortgage rates now reaching their lowest ever rates sub 1% buying a home has become more attractive.

We expect house price growth to return to trend with 5%+ growth once these uncertainties subside and wage growth catches up with prices following a period of increased inflation after sterling devalued immediately after the vote to leave the EU.

James Trescothick, Global Strategist, easyMarkets:

The threat of the sterling losing its role as a reserve currency due to the Brexit is looming over many investors’ minds.  Though the GBP is only the third most held global reserve currency, dropping further in the rankings or even losing that status all together, could really have a massive impact on the UK property market.

First of all, the sterling would lose its prestige and would most likely fall against the USD and EURO. In theory, this could encourage investment due to cheaper exchange rates, however the safe haven appeal which the UK housing market uses to attract foreign investors would be lost.  The UK relies heavily on this foreign investment to maintain prices. This and the levy on landlords and second-home owners which were introduced last year, are combining together to pressure house prices.

Holly Andrews, Managing Director, KIS Finance:

With regards to house prices in London, what we are seeing is due to a number of factors:

1. Stamp duty increases – In particular the increase in stamp duty for properties over £1.5m, with buyers having to pay 12% on any amount over £1.5m. Many people feel it is better to stay or keep existing properties and improve them, saving on the large amount of stamp duty that they would have to pay if they sold and purchased another property. In particular properties worth over £4m have seen a 12% fall in their values, the increases in stamp duty playing a major role.
2. Changes in the domicile and non-domicile rules – this has created a feeling that London is an increasingly harder place to reside long term, in particular amongst high net worth individuals. This is another major contributing factor as to why properties in London worth over £4million have seen a 12% fall in value
3. Local opinion – the view of the man on the street is very important, and in London, for the first time in 8 years, over 50% of people feel that house prices are going to drop. This low confidence also has an effect on property prices.
4. Mansion Tax - Although no mansion tax has been introduced, it is still on the table and a strong possibility in the future. It is therefore still in many peoples’ minds.
5. Brexit – A significant decrease in foreign investors buying property in London. Previously buying property in London was seen as an excellent investment for many foreign investors, but with Brexit there is much more uncertainty, leading foreign investors to invest their money elsewhere.
6. Investing elsewhere – Property investors nervous of London property values are investing in other parts of the UK such as Manchester and Liverpool. This has a negative effect in London prices, yet a positive effect elsewhere.
7. Low interest rates but difficult to obtain funding – The high end properties in London have been worst hit. Properties worth over £4million have seen a 12% fall in their values. Buyers are particularly concerned about this area of the market, making it very difficult to sell these properties, made worse by the high stamp duty charges that these properties attract. Lenders are also nervous about using these properties as security, making it difficult to borrow against them.

We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!