Trump’s $2 Trillion Gulf Deals Fall Short of Reality

Did Trump Really Land $2 Trillion in Gulf Deals? The Facts Tell a Different Story.

Flying home from his high-profile trip to the Gulf, former President Donald Trump declared to reporters, “That was a great four days, historic four days.” With characteristic bravado, he claimed that the visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) resulted in “more than $2 trillion” in deals for the United States.

“The jobs and money coming into our countries, there has never been anything like it,” Trump boasted.

The spectacle of the trip matched the grandiosity of the claims. Fighter jet escorts, Tesla Cybertrucks, royal camels, and sword dancers were all paraded out. The UAE even awarded Trump its highest civilian honour, the Order of Zayed. For Trump, this pageantry served as a stage to reaffirm his self-image as the “dealmaker in chief.”

But do the numbers actually add up?

President Trump in the Presidential Suite at Walter Reed

Big Pledges, Murky Realities

In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to invest $600 billion in US-Saudi partnerships. A flurry of announcements followed, including deals across defense, artificial intelligence, healthcare, infrastructure, and scientific collaboration.

Most notable was a $142 billion arms deal — heralded by the White House as the largest ever — that drew immediate scrutiny. During Trump’s first term, he had similarly trumpeted a $450 billion package of Saudi deals, yet actual trade and investment flows between 2017 and 2020 amounted to less than $300 billion, according to the Arab Gulf States Institute.

“The proof with all of these [new] deals will be in the pudding,” noted Tim Callen, the former IMF mission chief to Saudi Arabia and the author of the report questioning the figures.

Meanwhile, in Qatar, Trump claimed to have secured an “economic exchange” worth at least $1.2 trillion. Yet, the White House's own fact sheet listed deals totaling just $243.5 billion. One tangible agreement involved Qatar Airways purchasing up to 210 Boeing jets for $96 billion, a move expected to support 154,000 US jobs annually over the life of the deal.

In the UAE, a pledge to invest $1.4 trillion over the next decade made headlines, with a centerpiece deal to build the world’s largest AI campus outside the US. The project includes access to 500,000 advanced microchips from Nvidia, beginning next year.

president,donald,j.,trump,speaks,with,members,of,the,press

A Future Built on AI – or on Sand?

While the sheer scale of the announcements suggests a deepening economic relationship between the US and Gulf states, several factors raise doubts about the feasibility of the deals.

Oil Prices: Falling oil revenues — driven by oversupply and concerns about Trump’s own tariffs dampening global demand — are straining the budgets of oil-rich states. Saudi Arabia in particular may struggle to honor its $600 billion commitment amid tighter fiscal constraints.
Non-Binding Agreements: Many of the deals are memorandums of understanding rather than legally binding contracts. Aramco, for instance, announced 34 agreements worth $90 billion with US firms, most of which lack clear timelines or financial specifics.
Recycled Announcements: Some deals touted as “new” were, in fact, previously announced. For example, a Saudi commitment to buy liquified natural gas from NextDecade had already been disclosed months earlier.

Nevertheless, analysts agree that the focus on AI — especially with the UAE and Saudi Arabia racing to become global tech hubs — signals a pivot in US-Gulf relations from traditional oil-for-security models to high-tech economic partnerships.

“The AI deals… clearly demonstrate that they are trying to see how to build the new global order and the new way of doing things together,” said Bader Al Saif of Kuwait University and Chatham House.

Trump was accompanied by major tech figures like Elon Musk, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman. The timing was strategic: just before the trip, the White House lifted Biden-era export restrictions on advanced US semiconductors, a major win for Gulf countries eager to fuel their digital ambitions.

president,donald,trump,returns,from,kentucky.,washington,dc, ,21

Political Theater or Real Progress?

For Gulf leaders, the visit was an opportunity to reset ties with Washington after a strained period under Biden. For Trump, it was a chance to revive his narrative as a global dealmaker.

“I’ll be sitting home, who the hell knows where I’ll be, and I’ll say, ‘I did that,’” Trump told reporters, lamenting that others may take credit for the deals. “Somebody’s going to be taking the credit for this. You remember, press,” he added, pointing to himself, “this guy did it.”

But despite the headlines and handshakes, the $2 trillion figure remains highly dubious. With a long history of inflated numbers, unfulfilled pledges, and non-binding promises, Trump’s Gulf trip appears to have been more show than substance. Many of the deals may never materialize, just as many from his first term never did.

In the end, this trip may serve less as a turning point in US foreign investment and more as yet another example of Trump’s preference for optics over outcomes, promises over performance, and headlines over hard facts.