Last week Brexit Secretary David Davis said the UK will not be paying the EU’s expected €100 billion ‘divorce bill’ in order to leave the Union. Michel Barnier, the EU’s Chief Negotiator said it’s not a punishment, simply a settlement of accounts.

This ‘divorce bill’ is expected to be the most fought over and sensitive areas of the Brexit negotiation process between the UK and the EU.

Below Finance Monthly has heard Your Thoughts and listed comments from various expert sources.

Ben Martin, Founder, The Brexit Tracker:

A €100bn EU exit bill, paid upfront represents 18% of all income earned in the UK in the first three months of 2017. Or 239% of the annual increase in UK income earnings (12 months to March 2017 vs March 2016.) [Source:  ONS GDP March 2017.]  Either way it’s a huge figure.

So, whatever the eventual EU exit bill - €65bn or a net €42bn cost (or lower) – it’s going to take time to agree.  Or continue to not agree.

Both sides have set out their negotiating stalls; the UK is looking for a parallel track (let’s talk about the terms of the exit and the bill together) vs. the EU (pay your bill first.)  This will take months to resolve, even without the French and German elections. The sign off process will be arduous in the extreme as no individual will want to go down in history as the person who got it wrong. Agreement on what ‘Exit 2019’ looks like is a long way off.

The biggest losers of this head to head are businesses who need to plan for what the 2019 exit will mean for their operations. Employees will also suffer, due to the continued uncertainty surrounding EU workers right to remain, reduced investment spend and lower associated hiring as firms delay strategic investment.

What should businesses do now?  We’re encouraging them to assign Brexit responsibility to an individual in the firm; to review Brexit through the firm’s lens; to establish a reporting procedure to keep the CEO/Board/entire business + employees up to date on the changes Brexit may bring. And to create Brexit Key Performance Indicators. What can be measured can be improved – so we’re helping business start that measurement process.

Businesses must navigate Brexit by accepting continued uncertainty and actively tracking the possible implications.

Markus Kuger, Senior Economist, Dun & Bradstreet:

Although Article 50 has been triggered, it's still far too early to say how the negotiations will unfold - particularly as the general election results in June could change the government's priorities. Currently, it's clear that the UK is keen to present a firm negotiating stance and avoid any political damage from the prospect of a hefty Brexit bill. It's almost certain that some compromises will need to be reached, but where the UK will make concessions, and the size of any potential settlement, remain to be seen.

Positively, real GDP growth is still reasonably solid, labour market conditions sound and stock markets are rallying. However, forward looking indicators have deteriorated somewhat over the past months, pointing towards more challenging operating conditions as Brexit negotiations unfold. As a result, we are maintaining our DB2d country risk rating, down from the DB2a before the referendum, and the 'deteriorating' risk outlook. The best advice for businesses is to monitor the progress of negotiations and use the latest data and analytics to assess and manage risk during this period of uncertainty, and identify any potential opportunities for the post-Brexit world. A careful and measured approach to managing relationships with suppliers, customers, prospects and partners is key.

Charles Fletcher, Head of Analysis at Cogress:

The UK is caught in the midst of uncertainty surrounding Brexit, now compounded by Theresa May’s snap election. Brexit is unfamiliar territory and presents potential risk to the future of the UK, but so far the economy has remained resilient and this should continue to instill confidence in the country’s future. Papers have been reporting various figures for the UK’s so called ‘Brexit Bill’ ranging from 50bn to 100bn euros, but this remains conjecture as no hard facts have been made clear yet.

Until more information about the nature of the negotiations is released, the exit cost will remain a guessing game and potentially a dangerous one, as speculations on the Brexit bill can only fuel unnecessary anxiety around the future of the UK economy.

However, I would argue that although the "divorce bill" will be one of the most sensitive points during the negotiations - at least for the general public - it's the trade deal that the business community will be watching closely. As a safe harbour in a storm, the property market has always shown great resilience especially at times of uncertainty, and some foreign investors might even benefit from more favourable exchange rates. However Brexit may well cost other sectors dearly, especially those such as manufacturing which can afford uncertainty the least.

We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!

Given that it has been more than a month from the date Article 50 was triggered and the two front runners in the French presidential race are confirmed, just how well are UK markets doing and how are global ones faring in a time of such regular change? Michelle McGrade, Chief Investment Officer at TD Direct Investing lists for Finance Monthly her top ten tips on investment pre/post Brexit.

Time for a bit of sense and sensibility

As we got closer to Article 50 being triggered, investors were becoming a little more confident about what Brexit could mean for their investments. Over a three-week period, concluding the same week Theresa May finally penned her letter to President Tusk, the number of our customers who didn’t know whether the decision would be positive for their investments dropped from 44% to 35%, suggesting that investors were initially a bit spooked by the uncertainty, but as things became clearer, their sentiment became more positive.

UK equity market valuations look attractive

That is if we look at price to earnings (P/E) ratio (this measures the market price of a company's stock relative to its corporate earnings). The below chart represents equity market valuations of five geographical regions based on P/E ratios. We can see that the FTSE All-Share index is priced just above MSCI Asia and MSCI Emerging Markets, both of which are considered attractive right now.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

Source: Bloomberg to 31^st March 2017

So did global markets reflect this positivity as well?

The US market looks a bit stretched

Using the same chart from above, it clearly shows that US equity market valuations are looking a little stretched. This trend is mirrored in the below chart looking at price-to-book (P/B) ratio (which measures a company's market price in relation to its book value); again using the same five geographical regions.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

Source: Bloomberg to 31^st March 2017

Does this mean that the US bull run is about to come to an end?

The equity bull market is entering its eighth year, and for US stocks this is the second longest bull market since WWII (the longest having been between 1987 and 2000).

The current bull market is different from the 1987-2000 period, in that interest rates have fallen throughout. Bond yields have also declined to historically low levels, as demonstrated in the next chart. The major concern this time is that the majority of recent equity returns have been driven by investors bidding up prices in a global hunt for yield while earnings have remained flat. This might also have something to do with the way investors react to volatility; different to how they have done so historically.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

Source: Bloomberg to 31^st March 2017

What is the VIX telling us?

The Volatility Index (VIX) (market sentiment indicator) remains at depressed levels. The chart shows that the opposite trend between S&P 500 and VIX has reached an extreme level: 2364 vs 12.

Historically, spikes in the VIX coincide with sharp drops in the S&P 500 but as the chart demonstrates, huge spikes are a rarity in the last five or so years.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

Source: Bloomberg to 31^st March 2017

What can we deduce from this?

The data shows market valuations are stretched in some geographical regions. This comes against a backdrop of the potential threat of rising interest rates and occasional volatility, triggered by events like Brexit.

Despite the fallout from Brexit and upcoming elections in France and Germany, the outlook for global equities over the medium term remains cautiously optimistic. With global economic indicators strengthening and earnings picking up, global equities could deliver modest returns but with higher volatility. Additionally, there is the prospect the new US administration will push through pro-growth policies that are likely to provide a substantial boost to corporate earnings, but these are yet to be confirmed.

Despite high valuations of US equities, they are still attractive to hold due to the high-quality nature of the US market. The longer-term outlook on emerging markets looks potentially positive as they are cheaper than developed markets.

So, what 10 things should investors do as Britain secures its long-term future?

1. Have a clear investment strategy

Martin Cholwill, fund manager of the Royal London Equity Income, recommends that investors go for ‘dull and reliable’ instead of being dazzled by what seems ‘exciting’. Richard Buxton, fund manager of Old Mutual UK Alpha, agrees that having a clear investment strategy is important. He said: “The key to unlocking any investment reward is to have a high conviction approach and a fair bit of patience.”

2. Invest for growth

If you’re investing for growth, it’s normally recommended that you think about a minimum time horizon of five years or more.

3. Invest for income

If you’re looking for income, consider funds which invest in high-quality companies which are backed by cash flows, giving them the ability to pay dividends out of cash reserves.

4. Stay calm & stay invested

Remember: it’s about time in the market, not timing it! Use regular investing to take the emotion out of investing and not over-commit. Should any opportunities arise, you’ll also be well-positioned to take advantage of them.

5. Run your winners

It’s difficult to do, but the aim should be to buy at, or close to, the bottom and sell at the top. Run your winners. This basically means holding on to your investments that have done well, although it can be a good approach to take some profits - known as 'top slicing'.

6. Cut your losses

Don’t be afraid to cut your losses if an investment is clearly not going to gain in value. But remember, you only crystallise a loss if you sell, so if you think the value will rise again, hold your nerve and stay invested.

7. Don’t get trigger-happy

The most skilled fund managers don’t expect instant success. When we asked our Best of British fund managers how long they typically held onto stocks for, the average period was three to five years. See what stocks the Best of British Fund Managers are holding most.

8. Don’t believe the hype

Investors stand to benefit from not buying into the hype around particular shares or sectors, and to stick to their guns and invest regularly. Investors’ tendency to follow performance, which frequently sees them buy at the top of the market and sell at the bottom, can be painful and costly.

9. Back the Best of British

You can’t ignore a solid track record. Our Best of British Fund Managers list contains some core fund managers who have been there and done it through market ups and downs, riding out difficult times to deliver long-term outperformance.

10. Embrace opportunities

Take your time, think about your long-term investment goals, but embrace any opportunities that arise.

As Article 50 has finally been triggered, Michelle McGrade, Chief Investment Officer at TD Direct Investing, talks Finance Monthly through the key areas investors should consider, and answer a question many investors are thinking: ‘What are the investment opportunities open to me in a post-Brexit world?’

Following the UK’s vote to Brexit, our customers over at TD Direct Investing told us their biggest concern was how the UK Government would manage to implement its plans to trigger Article 50. And, more recently, we have seen increased uncertainty about what Brexit will actually mean, with approx. 40% saying they don’t know what impact it will have on their investments.

Here I’ve focused on six key areas I believe you should consider – and bring you 50 Investment Opportunities for Article 50.

In addition to our Best of British Fund Managers list, which highlights the 25 funds that have consistently performed over the past decade, we focused on some key topic areas: Disruption, European Recovery, Global Income, Small Caps, Contrarian and Sustainability.

Sector opportunity #1: Disruption

Politics are certainly disrupting the status quo around the world right now, but the wider theme of disruption is having a more profound impact on every aspect of our lives. Central to this is technology; a constant driver of new, and often simplified, ways in which we live.  According to a recent poll we conducted on our dedicated Article 50 hub, 57% of the 324 respondents believe that Britain has the ability to stand alone as a hub of innovation.

Sector opportunity #2: European recovery

65% of people who responded to a recent TD poll believed Europe has been wounded by the populist movement. However, I think the European economy is actually on a positive road to recovery with a selection of investment opportunities. What we’ve learnt from Brexit is that no one knows how key political events are going to turn out, and what the stock markets’ reaction to those events will be. As investors, it is better to stick to what you do know and focus on a long-term investment horizon.

Sector opportunity #3: Global Income

Article 50 has been triggered, but does that mean we should start looking abroad for investment opportunities? In another one of our surveys, 57% of respondents agree with my belief that independent trade deals between Britain and other areas around the world are highly likely – therefore, looking beyond our own shores, there are a number opportunities from around the world.

Sector opportunity #4: Small Cap Recovery

The quicker a company can grow its earnings in a sustainable way the more attractive it is to investors. UK smaller company shares have delivered better total returns than larger companies over more than 60 years.  You can think of small-cap investing in the same way as parenting. When the companies are at a very early stage, they are problematic. Likewise, any parent will tell you the ‘terrible twos’ is a difficult time. And once companies get too big, they are then teenagers, becoming potentially hard to manage. But in between these two phases is potentially a sweet-spot for parents and investors alike.

Sector opportunity #5: Sustainability

With events such as the UK’s vote to leave the European Union taking centre stage and leading to market uncertainty and volatility, it is worth noting there are still long-term, structural themes which can benefit investors. Sustainability is one such theme. It is becoming ever more important not just because of its significance in environmental terms, but because companies which adopt a sustainable business model are also outperforming those which don’t.

Sector opportunity #6: Contrarian

Sometimes opportunities arise in the basic act of going against the prevailing sentiment – when a fund is unloved or has, let’s say been out of fashion.

Other opportunities: Best of British Fund Managers

A lot has happened in the markets over the last 10 years; the global financial crisis, the price of Brent crude oil falling to its lowest point since 2003, and more recently the EU referendum and the drop in sterling.

Despite the volatile market conditions - and headlines – some fund managers have truly earned their stripes. Our Best of British research, now in its third year, identifies the top 25 UK fund managers who have consistently outperformed their benchmark and sector average over the last decade.

There is some crossover between Britain’s Top 25 fund managers and the above categories, including MFM Slater, Royal London UK Equity Income and Kames Ethical Equity, who would all appear in both lists - double the credit for their potential.

Following last week’s initiation of the Brexit process via the triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, Finance Monthly hears from Chief Market Analyst of Currencies, Jonathan Watson, who portrays a watchful outlook on the months to come, and how the tide can easily turn in the face of socio-political tiptoeing.

This week the triggering of Article 50 marks an important phase in the Brexit process. It is the beginning of the legal process by which the UK will leave the EU, signalling an end to months of uncertainty as to whether Brexit will happen. It is also the beginning of a whole new set of questions relating to the Brexit and how it will impact both the UK and the EU. From a currency perspective, I believe the Pound will have further to fall as the reality of some tough negotiations ahead weigh more on the UK. Nevertheless, Theresa May’s steely determination and clear vision has won her lots of support and indeed helped Sterling back from the brink earlier this year. Whilst I wonder whether such tenacity will be enough for such a monumental task ahead, I am also reminded that recent events have so often proved the more literal analysis of many of the negatives of Brexit have been proved wrong so far. It is still early days but it is in everyone’s interest to make this work and to remain hopeful for the future.

The UK economy is performing significantly better than feared which is extremely encouraging for the future. The weaker Pound has driven growth in firms who export as the discounted UK represents a good investment. However, the weaker Pound has pushed up import prices and costs across the UK from supermarkets to manufacturers, which is gently being absorbed into the wider economy.

The falling Pound has also led to a rise in Inflation which paradoxically, has seen Sterling higher as Bank of England policymakers debate whether or not to raise interest rates. Therefore, fears over higher inflation may not be such a problem, as rising interest rates may help the UK avoid any of the negatives associated with high inflation. Once Article 50 is triggered I can see Sterling falling as the complexity of negotiations becomes apparent. Nothing will happen quickly, already it has been made clear that the ‘Brexit bill’ must be agreed before negotiations commence. Trying to get all 27 members to agree one coherent position will also hinder time frames. France and Germany will also have elections to contend with this year.

These roundabouts and diversions on the path to Brexit will make life very difficult for Theresa May and the UK Government. All of this can very easily be seen to be damaging for the UK economy and Sterling. A lower Sterling is generally not a good thing for the UK as since we are a net importer (we import more form overseas than we export) a weaker Pound makes life more expensive for the UK as a whole.

However, I cannot help but be troubled by some of the looming questions and uncertainties arising from Brexit. A falling out with your biggest trading partner is never going to be completely without risk and the unpicking of some deep rooted social, political and economic ties is not good for business and confidence.

Whilst the resilience and flexibility of the UK economy coupled with Theresa May’s vision is gently receiving the backing of financial market, things can change very quickly. This leads me to suspect that whilst perhaps the worst fears will continue to be abated, longer term there could be greater challenges ahead which will harm the UK economy until we have clarity and certainty.

Business and consumer activity thrives when there is confidence and certainty, Brexit represents a massive change in the status quo which goes against what we know from a fundamental view.

Like it or loathe it, Brexit is happening and we must all come together and embrace it to make the very best of it. Business should be looking to make the most of Britain’s new place in the world but also remain cautious and plan for troubles ahead.

With Article 50 now triggered and the formal Brexit process underway, the world’s eyes will remain on Europe for the foreseeable future. Here, Michelle McGrade, Chief Investment Officer of TD Direct Investing, discusses for Finance Monthly the investment opportunities on the horizon and the relevance of the socio-political environment that surrounds businesses.

The UK’s vote to leave the EU last June was likely to catalyse political uncertainty across Europe. This was especially true with a number of Eurozone countries, including the Netherlands, France and Germany, holding elections over the course of 2017. With Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory in the US, concerns around the rise of populist governments gaining power in Europe have been further raised.

The result of Dutch election recently, in which the populist measures proposed by the Party for Freedom (PVV) lost out to the current People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) government, was a positive outcome for European markets looking for stability. The risk of a potential exit from the European Union (EU) and the euro, as well as further restrictions on immigration, have all receded.

But, what does this mean for investors?

According to our most recent customer survey, 65% of respondents believe Europe has been wounded by the rise in the populist movement. But when asked whether a populist movement – in this case triggering Article 50 - will have a positive impact on their portfolios, investors were split; 38% were unsure while only 32% thought it would.

While the Dutch result suggests this risk might be over-inflated, the uncertainty will persist until the outcomes of these elections are known.

We need to stop being blinkered by the politics

When the Dutch election vote came through I said publically that instead of focusing on politics, we should probably concern ourselves more with the fundamentals. Ian Ormiston, fund manager of Old Mutual Europe (ex UK) Smaller Companies, agrees. He believes there are reasons to be positive on the outlook for European equities and agrees that we should largely ignore politics. “Investing in European equities is not the same as investing in Europe,” he says. “Next time you are tempted to talk politics, opinion polls, and the vagaries of the US Electoral College system, try restraining yourself, however tempting. No one knows how key political events are going to transpire, just as no one knows what the stock market’s reaction to those events is likely to be. As investors, let’s try to stick to the knitting and focus on company fundamentals.”

The cyclical recovery across Europe is showing signs of gaining momentum. Lead indicators remain positive and there are signs of improving confidence from companies and consumers. Eurozone unemployment is also continuing to fall, supporting the recovery seen by consumers. This is being aided by easier borrowing conditions for both corporates and households, helped by a European banking system which is finally becoming better capitalised and willing to lend. The threat of deflation is also abating, with inflation approaching the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2%.

So, where are the European fund opportunities?

John Bennett, head of European equities at Henderson Global Investors and manager of Henderson European Selected Opportunities, points to a meaningful move away from growth and towards value investing. He is particularly keen on European banks.

“While it is early days, the signs are good that this change in leadership [from growth to value] could be durable,” says Bennett. “Such a shift, should it continue, favours Europe, home to many ‘value’ stocks, and is positive for the kind of stocks and sectors that investors have found easy to avoid for much of the last decade.”

“Our tilt to value accelerated significantly in the second half of 2016,” he continues. “That acceleration was writ large by our move into European banks despite, like many other investors, finding the sector still very easy to dislike. History shows that investing in European banks would have been a spectacularly wrong call from 2008 until recently, but we feel a combination of vastly improved capital ratios and a turning point in interest rate expectations has made the industry once again investable.”

In addition to these funds you could also tap into opportunities in European equities via BlackRock Continental European Income, which seeks to generate income by investing in companies with a strong competitive position and earnings stability, and with sustainable and growing dividends, or Jupiter European Special Situations, which invests in high quality companies whose profits are growing.

For European equities, the strengthening economic backdrop is improving earnings prospects. Following several years of moderate or no growth, expectations are for high single digit earnings growth this year, with further improvement in 2018.

Europe now turns its attention towards France and its upcoming presidential election. Should Marine Le Pen’s Front National win there could be consequences for the EU, but the two-stage electoral system in France could act against her. Nevertheless, investors are likely to remain cautious until the political risk across Europe reduces.

What we’ve learnt from Brexit is that no one knows how key political events are going to turn out, and what the stock markets’ reaction to those events will be. As investors, it is better to stick to what you do know and focus on a long-term investment horizon.

A new survey, sponsored by The Brexit Tracker, has calculated that Brexit planning has already cost UK businesses, £667.2m so far in executive man hours and this figure is set to rise to £813m after Article 50 is triggered.

The survey, conducted in January, polled 168 Board Directors of UK companies with a turnover of £10m - £150m to discover the impact and cost of Brexit planning. The associated costs were a conservative calculation based on current working hours spent on Brexit planning, accounting for one individual per organisation and factoring in that 68% of organisations have at least two staff involved.

Ben Martin, founder of The Brexit Tracker said, “Our research suggests that 40% of firms have already started planning for Brexit and with 70% CEOs and CFOs being tasked with that planning you can see how already it’s becoming an expensive business.”

However, despite anticipated costs, the survey found UK businesses were predominantly positive about Brexit and leaving the EU. While many are in ‘wait and see’ mode almost twice as many respondents are positive about the benefits Brexit has had on their industry sector than are negative (39% v 21%).

37% of respondents felt there would be a positive impact on business following the triggering of Article 50 while 30% thought there would be a negative impact. But optimism rises again to 42% v 34% when considering the impact of leaving the EU in 2019.

But the survey showed that Brexit was having a negative impact on general business planning and investment. Three quarters of organisations stated the level of uncertainty impacted their ability to invest. The biggest area facing one third of organisations is developing new markets (34%) and this is most notable in Construction (58%), Professional Services (47%) and Business Service (45%). Investment in technology and recruitment were the other main areas facing uncertainty.

Ben Martin explains the thinking behind The Brexit Tracker: “Our research highlighted that although76% of respondents understand the general implications of Brexit that falls to 67% when looking at how Brexit impacts their own business. Clearly there is a knowledge gap.

“The Brexit Tracker analyses 390 economic indicators pertinent to the sector and the firm’s particular circumstance. Stakeholders can understand likely implications for their business and compare their views with those of their peers. Our tool enables expensive resource to be smartly invested in strategic planning, not squandered in trying to make sense of a myriad of factors that may or may not be relevant to the business.”

(Source: The Brexit Tracker)

For months, businesses, consumers and authorities in both the UK and the EU have been waiting for the triggering of Article 50, which initiates the Brexit procedure. However, the lack of details due to the mantra "no negotiation without notification," means that uncertainty has likely been the most mulled over word in media right now.

Tomorrow is the due date for the UK to initiate the process, and the impact will be both immediate and long term, with lengthy negotiations to take place on the back of already what seems lengthy planning time. Finance Monthly has this week heard from numerous sources across the UK, from experts and specialists in several sectors, to businesses forecasting the opportunities and risks, on what might be once Article 50 is officially triggered. Here’s Your Thoughts.

Markus Kuger, Senior Economist, Dun & Bradstreet:

Theresa May’s plans to start Britain’s withdrawal process from the EU will set off a series of tough negotiations. The complexity of Brexit poses unique challenges, with overall sentiment and fiscal numbers continuing to paint a mixed picture: although forward-looking indicators are still reasonably strong, they have deteriorated since the start of the year and, simultaneously, inflation has registered its highest reading since Q3 2013. In this vein, it’s far too early to realistically assess the potential political and economic impact of Brexit – a real bone of contention will be the controversial departure bill, which may well see the UK pay in excess of £60 billion to officially leave the EU. With negotiations about future EU-UK trade relations expected to take longer than the two years available, it is likely that an interim agreement will have to be struck, and we do not expect full independence to be secured until the 2020s at the earliest.

The public’s interest will focus on what kind of deal Theresa May can strike with the EU, especially as the President of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, has reinforced his position that the UK will not be able to ‘have their cake and eat it’. The EU still seems to have the upper hand in the upcoming negotiations, but a disorderly Brexit would also hurt the remaining 27 members of the bloc (although not as badly as the UK). From an economic perspective, the UK is actually performing just as well as it has done since before the country voted to leave the EU, but it’s unlikely that this strong growth will continue throughout 2017. Politically, events in Europe over the next few months could have an impact on negotiations; elections in France and Germany, should they unexpectedly go the way of anti-EU parties, will likely destabilise the two powerhouses’ control over the European bloc. For now, the priority is to start developing official plans for the UK’s departure from the EU. Businesses must monitor the uncertain and fluctuating economic situation that is to be expected over the next few years, and mitigate risks as best they can.

Mark Billige, Managing Partner, Simon-Kucher & Partners:

After the referendum, we have already seen a notable impact on prices, with the inflation rate before the vote hovering just above 0% but now nearing 2%, the official target rate of inflation in the UK. More price rises are imminent with Article 50 being triggered.

Research by Simon-Kucher shows that the severity of price increases passed to consumers has been gradually rising since the referendum. This means that as we move closer to the point at which Theresa May looks like she will trigger Article 50 at the end of this month, companies look set to pull the trigger on increasingly significant price hikes.

But businesses need to be careful. For instance, a survey conducted by Simon-Kucher shows that level of concern about price increases resulting from Brexit does vary within the UK, with 97% of Remain voters concerned about price increases, versus 57% of Leave voters. The research also shows that holidays and grocery bills are feared as the most likely culprits to face price increases. Many people, especially those who support Leave, take a dim view of companies attributing price rises to Brexit.

Chris Baker, Manging Director, UK Enterprise, Concur:

I think businesses have been pretty clear right from the outset about the deal they want with the EU once we're officially no longer part of the 'club.' What will be interesting is how corporate behaviour changes over the course of the next couple of years. We already know from reports that many are stockpiling cash rather than investing, but a new development is also emerging. Many of our customers are reviewing their supplier strategy with a view to forming partnerships with UK companies in order to reduce Brexit risk and turbulence from the FX markets.

Such a strategy makes sound business sense, but longer term if the UK withdraws into itself commercially it will be much harder to forge trade agreements with China, India, the US and of course the EU. To get the best deal we have to be seen as a global economic force, not an island. Businesses need tangible incentives that will give them confidence to invest both in the UK and abroad.

Michelle McGrade, Chief Investment Officer, TD Direct Investing:

Rising employment continues to propel the Eurozone region towards 2% growth. Add in inflation and operational gearing, and growth at a company level starts to look interesting. There are some selected good structural growth stories across Europe. No one knows how key political events are going to transpire, and what the stock markets’ reaction to those events, or indeed the effect on the euro, will be. As investors, it is better to stick to what you do know and focus on a long-term investment horizon.

Rob Halliday-Stein, Managing Director & Founder, BullionByPost:

We've got a lot of uncertainty at the moment and when you look at things and people tend to see gold as a good thing to hold during those times and if you look at Brexit, for example, even though it has not actually happened yet, that could still have a big impact as far as business is concerned. Our most profitable times are always during times of uncertainty.

As a business, somewhat sadly, we always tend to do well at times like that. No one really knows how this Brexit is going to play out over the next two years once Theresa May pulls the trigger to trigger article 50. There are a lot of unanswered questions and a long road to go down. We don’t yet know what is going to happen to UK and EU nationals working and living abroad and those from other European countries that are living and working here in the UK. Indeed, as part of our business, we do employ a few EU nationals so the future for them is somewhat uncertain.

And then there’s the bill for leaving the EU and the estimates are that that could come to around £50bn for our share of liabilities. What will happen to the EU laws that we have been bound by for more than 40 years? Are there similar bills going to have to be rushed through parliament? Theresa May is really going to have to tread carefully here to get the best deal for us upon leaving the EU – otherwise this could end up costing the country dearly.

For me balance of payments is a big issue for then UK right now. We need to be selling more goods and services than those that are bought in from elsewhere. The UK’s 2016 international trade statistics released this month show the deficit of Britain’s balance of payments increased by nearly £10 billion, and is currently just short of £40 billion. This is something that simply needs to be addressed when we go it alone.

However, this is all good for business. With all the uncertainty in the world people still know there's a very strong case for holding gold as part of their portfolio. It will, at the very least, keep its value and preserve wealth. It may spike much higher than that at points of crisis and then it tends to bounce back a bit.

Mark O’Halloran, Coffin Mew:

Over the next two years the ‘Great Repeal’ will become as a common a phrase as ‘Brexit’ has been in the last two. But Great Repeal Bill is misleading as the government’s key task will be enacting legislation, not getting rid of it.

The adoption of EU legislation is not going to be a smooth process. It is going to be complicated by an expectation that negotiations between the UK, the EU and its member states won’t reach resolution till near the end of the two years, potentially leading to a mad rush to get laws adopted.

Patent law is a prime example of an area that is going to be of shared concern for many areas of UK industry going forward. The Government still appears eager to move forward with both a unified European patent court and a unified European patent, and there is logic for this. British businesses will want the security of knowing that their patents are protected as widely as possible, without the hassle of having to prepare and file applications in multiple countries.

As it is, it is far more expensive to protect designs through patents in Europe than in the US and the new unified European patent court and a unified European patent is aimed to address this. The price we may need to pay, however, is continued EU political influence through, perhaps, the involvement of the ECJ. Despite Brexiteer assurances, we will not be able to have all our cake and eat every morsel of it.

There is much uncertainty in how the extraordinary challenge of Brexit will be handled; and two years for global events to take unexpected turns. At first, don’t expect all that much to change. Theresa May’s Government will be closely watched and scrutinised over the next two years and their remit will be to simply ensure we have working legislation in place for us officially leaving. It is once this formal process is complete that the fireworks will fly.

Owain Walters, CEO, Frontierpay:

We expect to see some initial volatility or “noise” in the market once Article 50 is triggered at the end of the month, however, there won’t be any significant developments until we learn more about the detail of the negotiations and any deals become clearer. Our advice to businesses is that they take advantage of the remaining two years in which we will have access to the single market to prepare for life outside of the EU. Laying the necessary groundwork to ensure that they have access to international markets and currencies upon our departure is the best way for businesses to ensure that they are successful post-Brexit.

Alex Edwards, Head of the dealing desk, OFX:

When Article 50 is triggered, it will doubtless have an economic impact. But although the currency market is often the first to react to political developments, we’re unlikely to any significant moves on the day itself.

When the Prime Minister first announced that she would trigger Article 50 on 29th March, the pound was quick to fall against the US dollar. In the end, this was only a minor blip in sterling’s recent gains – on the whole, traders have been focusing on positive economic data from the UK, along with rising headline inflation and a hawkish stance from the Bank of England.

Investors know that Article 50 is coming, and to a point, the market has already priced in a lot of the potential negatives that could arise around the coming Brexit negotiations.

In the longer term, the strength or weakness of the pound will largely depend on the progress of EU negotiations, rather than monetary policy. If negotiations are seen to be going well for the UK, then this will undoubtedly be positive for sterling, particularly against the euro. If they are perceived to benefit both the UK and EU, then this will still be favourable for the pound, as it would bring some certainty to the market. After all, it’s traditionally political and economic certainty that’s good for a country’s currency.

Failed negotiations, you won’t be surprised to hear, will not be positive for the pound. Any negotiations will also need to be voted on, certainly on the European side, and possibly in Parliament here. Like any vote, if we know it’s going to be tight, this creates uncertainty – not good for either the pound, or the euro. On the other hand, if the outcome is predictable, then the market reaction will likely be mild when the deal is passed, perhaps even supportive for the pound, as investors buy the fact rather than the rumour.

Overall though, there are still many unanswered questions about what shape these negotiations will take. It’s uncertain, and we know what uncertainty means for a currency. We’re already seeing this affecting exchange rates – the pound has been at historic lows since the Brexit vote, and has been under and close to 1.20 against the US dollar for some time.

When Brexit negotiations begin, clarity should start to be restored. As such, there may be some positive surprises in store for the pound over the next two years – the risk, as they say, could well be to the upside.

Robert Hannah, COO, Grant Thornton UK LLP:

More than nine months after the referendum result, the lion’s share of the government’s and the media’s attention is still being granted to big business brands. However, we know that mid-sized and smaller businesses are the strongest growing sections of the business world and form the backbone of Britain’s economy as significant employers and economic contributors, with strong growth projections.

Brexit should be seen as an opportunity for these businesses to open up to new, more competitive, markets and the catalyst for exploring how we unlock overseas opportunities beyond the EU.

Seeking out areas where good practice is already in place and learning from it, is key to this. A good example is Scotch whisky, a leading UK export enjoyed globally worth £4bn a year. The sector has had an excellent champion in the Scotch Whisky Association, who work hard to ensure fair access across all markets and the industry, and has built an enviable distribution network throughout the globe.

If the British government is serious about getting match fit for the new global economy, they could do a lot worse than sitting down for a dram with Scottish whisky producers to understand how we can get our mid-sized and smaller businesses set up for success.

Rob Douglas, VP of UK and Ireland, Adaptive Insights:

Although the triggering of Article 50 was arguably inevitable it is still likely to cause fluctuation on the global markets and businesses need to be prepared. At the very least, businesses are at risk of the impact of currency fluctuations, but they also face years of negotiations and debates, the outcome of which will have a knock-on effect on finances.

Above all else it is important for finance teams to carve out a degree of stability for their business. The best way to do this is to take an active approach to planning and ensure that they are as agile as possible to respond to wider economic changes. For example, ‘what if’ scenarios that model currency changes can give the finance team and business greater insight into where they may see hikes in costs, which, if not adequately prepared for, could be fatal to a business.

What’s more, finance teams also need to be sure they are considering the entirety of the business. For example, business drivers are not exclusively financial. Non-financial KPIs need to be worked into models if the team is to get an accurate view of the business both now and how it will fair in differing economic environments.

Article 50 undoubtedly spells a volatile time ahead for the UK business community, but successful corporate performance will depend on ensuring the business is as agile as possible. A finance team needs to have its hands on all the business levers, understanding how it can respond to changing market conditions to preserve–and even enhance–the health of the business. Done in the right way, a finance team will cushion its business when times are bad and make it thrive when times are good. It is only with an accurate view of the business, being prepared and predicting possible threats and opportunities, as well as modelling these across the whole enterprise, that a finance team can truly steady the ship in the tumultuous post-Brexit world.

James Roberts, Director, Sanctuary Bathrooms:

As an independent business owner who deals internationally and domestically, we’ve seen rising costs from suppliers since the announcement of the Brexit vote. The rise has been on average around 7%, but as the dollar and euro start to level out, this should hopefully reduce. This has impacted UK consumers, as we’ve unfortunately had to factor this increase into our prices.

One unseen benefit of this upheaval has been an increase in orders from other EU countries, who are taking advantage of the weak pound to grab themselves a bargain.

Frustratingly, we’re still in the dark in regards to the full impact of Brexit, but early indicators are a mixture of positive and negative. It’s difficulty to say with any certainty what post-Brexit Britain will look like as it’s uncharted territory.

Before the referendum last June, many economists produced gloomy forecasts which have since been proved wrong. Consumers' confidence has not suffered, and, by and large, things have gone on as before. Personally, we are quietly confident that our business may benefit from a boost in EU orders in the near future which will sufficiently counter any losses in sales domestically.

Michael Hatchwell, Director, Globalaw and Senior Corporate lawyer, Gordon Dadds:

When the UK Government triggers Article 50 there will be no immediate changes in law or treaties; therefore a trigger of Article 50 will not in itself have any economic effect. Markets may experience some movement, but there will be no immediate effects as the United Kingdom remains part of the EU until it leaves.

Once triggered, the UK will have two years to agree not only the exit terms but also the principles for future relations between the EU and the UK. When one considers the vast array of issues to be thought through and covered, bearing in mind that we have a history of some 40 years of integration, and that major issues such as financial passporting and access rules for UK and EU citizens (both ways) are but the tip of a huge iceberg, it is not surprising that many are of the view that there is not much chance of negotiations concluding in two years.

Two years from the trigger of Article 50 the EU treaties will cease to apply, unless that period is extended by the European Council with the agreement of all 27 other member states.

If no Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is agreed and two years expire without extension, because the UK is a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the EU will treat the UK as it does other WTO members, such as Brazil, Russia or the USA. The same EU tariffs will have to apply to the UK because it will be illegal, absent an FTA, not to do so.

Given the volume of UK/EU commerce, this fallback position will not be welcomed by either side.

Ultimately, because nothing happens immediately and because nobody knows what the outcome of negotiations will be as no country has previously triggered Article 50, the only certainty over the coming 2-3 years is that there will be uncertainty.

This is problematic for those making key investment decisions, as well as in terms of important choices that need to be taken by individuals and companies whose lives and business are entirely intertwined with the EU.

So, can big business afford to wait? Absent some clear indications on key issues, it is likely that businesses will need to anticipate the prospect of trade between the UK and the EU not remaining as easy as it is now. If moving certain functions to another EU location now resolves that issue, then why would such a step not be taken? Of course it may prove to be an unnecessary step, but the risk of not acting may not be acceptable. The decision will of course depend upon a company’s particular trade and issues.

Further, companies are aware that it is unlikely the 27 other member states will make negotiations easy for the UK as they do not wish to encourage any other countries to leave. They may also want to attract as much business as they can from the UK to their own states and play on the uncertainty that will exist.

As regards rushing into new treaties with non-EU countries such as the USA and China, the EU has made is quite clear the UK cannot do so until it has left the EU, creating a potentially longer period of uncertainty before treaties with our key trading nations can be agreed.

It is therefore quite likely that if Brexit does prove to be of benefit to the long-term interests of the UK, it is unlikely that the short-term unavoidable and inevitable uncertainty affecting so many key critical issues will not have a real and negative short-term impact on the UK economy. Put another way, it would be quite surprising if it did not.

The government and the Bank of England will have to act carefully and decisively to ensure that they make the UK a seriously attractive place to do business to counteract the uncertainty that will exist.

Gary McIndoe, Latitude Law:

When assessing a business's needs from an immigration perspective, Brexit creates the potential to incur real financial burden. Changes to existing practices need to be identified and managed as soon as possible, both to minimise costs and to streamline processes (and perhaps even achieve financial savings). As a starting point, business should assess their exposure to the impact of Brexit - some businesses will employ a far higher proportion of migrant workers than others, particularly if in a sector such as construction, hospitality or manufacturing. Review your workforce now and determine what proportion of current employees might be affected. Your business can take steps now to calculate and secure staff retention.

The next step should be to limit the immediate damage - we do not know whether the UK government will guarantee the rights of EU workers already in the UK, but we can be reasonably confident that some sort of provision will be made for those who already have employment, particularly if long-term. Speak to your existing workforce about their feelings towards Brexit, they might need guidance on securing their position. Employers can run workshops for staff members to discuss their eligibility for securing confirmation of residence rights. While this can incur an initial financial outlay, staff retention rates may benefit from a proactive approach. Many EU nationals do not hold a UK-issued residence card, but it would be a good idea to apply for one now. In some cases, a permanent right of residence can be confirmed immediately, but for those who do not satisfy those requirements, a time-limited card from the UK government is likely to give the best protection and offer a level of reassurance for employer and employee alike.

Once you have secured your current workforce, you should consider future recruitment needs, including where your staff are currently recruited from and how might the end of ‘free movement’ affect your hiring strategy. Depending on the scheme on which the government chooses for future EU migration, large-scale recruitment from specific countries may become costlier and more complicated. Familiarise yourself with the schemes applicable to non-EU migrants; formal sponsorship might never be a requirement for EU nationals, but knowledge of more flexible measures both past (such as the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme) and present (e.g. Tier 5 Temporary Workers) could be of use to your business as Brexit negotiations continue.

Finally, you need to prepare your HR team. This will depend on the measures introduced when Brexit takes effect, but your HR team’s processes need to be checked to avoid illegal working may need to change. Consider reviewing your personnel files now to update ID documents and best protect yourself from illegal working penalties in years to come. Future document requirements for EU nationals are not yet known, but reintroducing document checks (or re-familiarising your team with the requirements) at an early stage might help you to transition to a more robust system required from 2019, and save costly penalties in future.

Declan Harrington, Financial Advisor, Savage Silk:

We expect that the economic and social effects of Brexit won’t become completely clear for at least six years. During this period of adjustment, we believe that the majority of companies and even individuals will see very few significant changes in their circumstances.

The only certainty is that fruitful financial opportunities will still exist once Article 50 has been triggered, and businesses should not use Brexit as an excuse to shy away from jumping on them. We are already working with companies and individuals to help them identify these opportunities and take advantage of very benign investment and credit conditions.

We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!

As Parliament has now confirmed the implementation of Article 50 and the notification that the UK will commence negotiations to leave the EU tomorrow, the 29^th March, FDR Law’s Commercial Partner John King, considers how commercial contracts could be affected by Brexit.

The Prime Minister has now announced the formal Brexit negotiation process will now be triggered Wednesday 29^th March, following which the UK will then have two years to negotiate an exit deal. This commencement of the exit provisions has now been authorised by Parliament and it is expected that the Prime Minister will make a speech next Wednesday in the House of Commons to set out her aims, shortly after invoking Article 50.  For the time being, EU law continues to apply until the exit negotiations are finalised and it has been suggested that the task of reviewing and, where appropriate, repealing or amending legislation could take up to 10 years.

Both in the run up to and following Brexit, Britain will clearly continue to do business with the rest of the world, so it is important to understand what ‘rules’ are likely to apply to commercial contracts which underpin their business relationships, particularly with EU companies. So to what extent will developments during the negotiation period affect some of the commercial and legal areas?

On the face of it, many commercial contracts would seem to be neutral as to whether the UK left or remained in the EU. They are generally less heavily regulated than many other areas of law, and, as the name suggests, tend to be based on the commercial bargain between the parties. But what if that commercial bargain is in itself significantly affected by Brexit? Now is a good time to start identifying any potential risk areas in your commercial contracts. These could include increased trade barriers, currency fluctuations, the territorial scope of your agreements, and changes in law.

Existing contracts

The UK leaving the EU may well affect the operation of existing contracts, possibly in a manner that the parties had not foreseen or planned for at the time of entering into the contract. For example, if the operation of the contract was wholly or largely dependent on the ongoing operation of some particular EU legislation it is possible that the contract could be frustrated (i.e. terminated) or the force majeure provisions could be triggered at the time of Brexit (or indeed possibly before when the terms of Brexit become clearer).

Short term contracts

Short term contracts are less likely to be affected by the UK leaving the EU due to the two year negotiating window that will start once Article 50 is invoked. This negotiating period should give both parties time to consider how the terms of Brexit might affect their longer term contractual arrangements and give rise to re-negotiation.

New contracts

Before entering into any new contracts with corporates in other EU Member States, careful consideration should be given to these areas if the contract is likely to continue post Brexit, and you should seek to provide provisions in the contract that might include:

• Either expressly including or excluding the UK leaving the EU in or from any force majeure provision
• Giving the parties termination rights when the UK leaves the EU
• Providing for/referring to an alternative mechanism which will apply once the UK leaves the EU

Overseas contracts

The greatest economic impact is being felt by businesses bringing in materials from abroad. Both the annual and monthly rate of producer price inflation increased in February 2017. Output prices rose 3.5% on the year to January 2017, which is the seventh consecutive period of annual price increases and the highest they have been since December 2011. Prices for materials and fuels paid by UK manufacturers for processing (input prices) rose 19.1% on the year, a slight decrease from the year to January 2017 but the second fastest rate of annual growth since September 2008*. The expectation is that in the event that Brexit means that the UK ends up trading with Europe under WTO (World Trade Organisation) rules, anticipated EU import tariffs would add approximately 10% to the price of UK goods sold to the EU. Any party to a contract that is no longer economically viable will need to review their contractual (and common law) termination rights to see how quickly they can bring the contract to an end or whether the contract offers opportunities to re-negotiation the commercial terms.

In these circumstances force majeure and material adverse change provisions are relevant. Whether they are triggered will depend on the exact drafting of the contract and the application of the rules of contract interpretation. Currently, the market consensus seems to be that it is relatively unlikely that force majeure clauses will be triggered in the absence of wording specifically contemplating Brexit. It may be easier to argue that financial consequences following on from Brexit constitutes a material adverse change but not every contract includes a material adverse change provision.

Next steps

If any of your key contracts are likely to be affected by Brexit, you could consider seeking to negotiate amendments to terms that are materially affected. It is also worth considering whether the contract contains any contractual remedies that could be triggered by Brexit.

Trade deals with the remaining EU states are highly likely to take several years longer than that. In the meantime, the ramifications of Brexit will hopefully become clearer so that businesses are able to confidently deal with any contractual issues that it may bring.

*ONS UK producer price inflation statistical bulletin: Feb 2017

With the impending prospect of Article 50, how should the savvy prepare? Here Finance Monthly benefits from an expert answer, authored by István Bodó, Amaury DeMoor and Karan Lal of REL, a division of The Hackett Group.

The British referendum vote makes a mark in the European Union’s history, as the United Kingdom has taken the decision to leave the EU and will become the first nation to ever leave the union.

Brexit’s impact on remaining EU countries

This slightly unexpected outcome of the vote prompted jubilant celebrations among Eurosceptics around the continent and sent shockwaves throughout the global economy causing a new “Black Friday” across the major European financial markets. Stock exchanges in Germany and France ended down 6.8% and 8% respectively. Since the British, Italian and Spanish stock markets also had losses above 12%, this was the worst drop in a day since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

Though financial markets soon recovered, uncertainty remains amongst both the European Union and United Kingdom, as a big question mark lies on the future of their relationship and the synergies that lie within.

From the perspective of the remaining EU countries, the United Kingdom has been a very strong and influential member. The UK is often considered to be the bridge between the EU and the rest of the world due to its historic Commonwealth and political strength around the world. With this relationship now at risk and major decisions in the hands of politicians, this is creating nervousness amongst organisations. Failure to sustain current relationships and trade deals could be damaging for both sides.

Many argue that the EU is a more important trading partner for the UK than the UK is for the EU. However, with the UK’s strong demand for imports from the EU, with special emphasis on the pharmaceutical and manufacturing industry, this is an important factor that needs to be taken into consideration.

In value terms the trade surpluses with the UK are concentrated in a small number of EU countries – Germany, in particular, as the UK is its third most important business partner with 120 billion euros in different goods and services being sold to the UK. Trading with the UK after a formal Brexit may become difficult and more expensive for German and other European companies as new customs and regulations may be implemented. This could have significant impact on the German automobile and engineering industry, considering that every fifth car sold abroad goes to the UK.

Whether the long-term impact of Brexit will cause a shift in European Union business to the rest of the world or will result in a genuine loss in business is unclear for the time being. It is therefore imperative for organisations to be strategically flexible and prepared for either outcome. By capitalising on opportunities to release working capital, organisations can weather economic downturns, as well as fund new opportunities that may be on the horizon.

Importance of working capital and cash

Working capital is the amount of cash that is tied up in a company’s day-to-day operations. It is important that all three components (accounts receivable, accounts payable and inventory) receive focus to realise maximum cash benefit opportunities and identify and tackle inefficiencies in processes and procedures (Fig. 1).

Organisations across Europe have significant opportunities, not just to strengthen their balance sheet but also to move towards world-class working capital performance – in fact, companies could release more than 229 million euros within their receivables, payables and inventories per 1 billion euros of sales.

By highlighting days inventory on-hand and days payables outstanding, median- performing companies have an above 50% improvement opportunity, which can yield and support substantial cost optimisation opportunities, whilst also releasing cash to help fund acquisitions, product development or other investments (Fig. 2).

Another important aspect of shifting from median performer to world class is the higher focus on continuous improvement and sustainable results that becomes part of the company culture, making the whole organisation more effective and efficient. Companies achieving world-class working capital performance are likely to be high performers in other operational areas as well. They are the businesses that not only respond and adapt to changes in competition and customer preferences, but they are also leading the change and capitalising on emerging growth opportunities.

Although the unknown potential impact of Brexit cannot be directly compared to the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, key lessons can be learnt from that period, as poor total working capital management was a key factor in several liquidations. In these situations, cash reserves were not sufficient enough to run operations and whilst at the same time banks were reluctant to increase credit.

How will Brexit shift business?

Britain leaving the union could lead to a shift or loss in business for EU companies. The pound falling to historic low levels against the euro has significantly dented the purchasing power of the United Kingdom. It is for this reason that many UK companies will look to source domestically, as well as outside Europe in an attempt to hedge against the fall in pound sterling.

Although Article 50 has not formally been put into motion and formal negotiations with the EU have not yet begun, the UK already is turning towards her Commonwealth, as Prime Minister Theresa May has already visited India in late 2016. The British prime minister was also the first to formally visit US President Donald Trump in January 2017, as part of the special and historical relationship both nations share with each other. Meanwhile, the EU has also turned its attention to the rest of the world by entering a free trade agreement with Canada in October 2016.

With such sudden political shifts, European-based companies are at potential risk to face a loss of business, as the majority of UK imports currently come from Europe, with Germany, Netherlands and France being the top three exporting countries to the United Kingdom (Fig. 3).

Whether Brexit translates to a shift or loss of business for European-based companies, in either scenario it is imperative for businesses to have a well-managed working capital programme and a well-embedded cash culture that enables smooth adaptation to the new economic environment Europe will face. Achieving a healthy level of total working capital proves to be the less risky option, especially in times of economic uncertainty, and provides companies the ability to stay flexible and resilient against sudden changes. Therefore, initiating total working capital improvement programmes covering accounts receivable, accounts payable and inventory are strongly recommended.

Bracing for industry impact

London is heavily backed to remain the top financial centre in Europe despite exiting the EU. This is largely due to the fact that other European cities such as Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin simply do not have the capacity, resources, culture and educational infrastructure to become a London-like city. With the United Kingdom’s strong political connections to the rest of the world, London also remains the stronger candidate for foreign capital investment.

It is for this reason that the shift in jobs and business is likely to remain minimal for the financial services industry but might be different for core European industries such as manufacturing and pharmaceuticals. With the United Kingdom largely importing from both the manufacturing and pharmaceutical sector (Fig. 4), these industries, in particular, are likely to face either a decrease or loss in business, assuming the risk that the United Kingdom will no longer be part of the single market and the continuous weakening of the pound.

Due to its capital intensive nature and sensibility to economic swings, the working capital requirements of the manufacturing and pharmaceutical industries are generally higher in comparison to industries such as consumer goods and services. This is largely driven by the complexity of the supply chain and the varying working capital performance across sub-sectors, such as plastics, metals, machinery, fabricated products, building products, etc. In addition, the high cost of goods sold directly affects payables and inventories, making working capital performance even more important. To withstand the potential impacts ahead, detailed analysis and assessments must be made in the receivables, payables and inventory areas in order to implement strategies to optimise working capital and use the extra cash to cushion volatility.

Low inflation within eurozone

On the path to recovery from the global financial crisis, interest rates in the eurozone have hit their lowest point in recent history. The decisions made by the European Central Bank (ECB) and backed by ECB president Mario Draghi are largely driven to encourage borrowing across the eurozone, in order to grow and stimulate the economy following the financial crisis. Though the eurozone has by a close margin recovered from the crisis, interest rates have remained low due to inflation targets of 2% not being met.

The currently low price of oil is a major contributing factor to low inflation, as oil is the eurozone’s biggest import; thus, a future increase in oil prices could put the eurozone back at higher inflation rates and increase the likelihood of higher interest rates.

With interest rates currently low and business loans looking attractive, many businesses take the easy route to borrowing money, instead of optimising their working capital. Though many organisations benefit from such a low interest climate in the short run, working capital optimisation proves to be a more sustainable path for the long term, as it shows managerial efficiency, attracts investors and, most importantly, frees up cash. Having the ability to free up cash by improving internal processes always adds value, as it allows organisations to eliminate inefficiencies and remain flexible and dynamic in facing economic uncertainties such as Brexit.

Summary

The unknown impact that Brexit will have on the European Union and the United Kingdom further adds to the uncertainty and nervousness of businesses affected by the move and may lead to delays in investment decisions. Though the UK will hope to retain access to the European Common Market, major European companies will be watching closely as this could have significant impacts on the products they export to the United Kingdom.

After a night of counting the votes, it was revealed at exactly 06:00 BST this morning that Britain had voted to leave the EU. Prime Minister David Cameron has announced that he is stepping down by October, saying:

“I fought this campaign in the only way I know how – which is to say directly and passionately what I think and feel- head, heart and soul. I held nothing back. I was absolutely clear about my belief that Britain is stronger, safer and better off inside the European Union. And I made clear that the Referendum was about this and this alone – not the future of any single politician, including myself. But the British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path. And as such, I think that the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction. “

The referendum has seen the highest turnout at a UK-wide vote since 1992 – 71.8% with more than 30 million people voting. 51.9 % of those voted to Leave by 48.1%. While England and Wales voted strongly for Britain to leave the EU, London, Scotland and Northern Ireland strongly disagreed with Brexit.

UKIP Leader Nigel Farage, who has been campaigning for Britain to leave the EU in the past two decades, said that today would “go down in history as our independence day”.

As the UK heads for Brexit, the pound has fallen dramatically hitting a 30-year low and plummeting to $1.3236 at one stage earlier this morning. In the opening minutes of trade, the FTSE 100 Index fell more than 500 points before regaining some ground.

Laith Khalaf, Senior Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown comments: ‘Global stock markets have taken a Brexit hit, with European markets actually falling more than the Footsie. Safe haven assets have soared as investors sought security, with gold rising 5% and UK bond yields plunging to historic lows.On the stock market, banks and housebuilders have been hit particularly hard this morning as markets try to factor in the Brexit effect on the UK economy.Sterling has fallen to its lowest level for over 30 years , which will mean holidaymakers heading abroad in the coming weeks will have to dig extra deep to buy foreign currency.Investors should carefully consider their plans and avoid a knee-jerk reaction. The coming days are likely to be choppy on the stock market as it digests the ramifications of Brexit, and further falls are possible.However markets will bounce back at some point, and investors who switch to cash risk buying back into the market at a higher level, and ending up in a worse position than if they had just stayed put.’

Bank of England governor Mark Carney said this morning that: "Some market and economic volatility can be expected as this process unfold. But we are well prepared for this. The Treasury and the Bank of England have engaged in extensive contingency planning and the Chancellor and I have been in close contact, including through the night and this morning.

"The Bank will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward."

As the Article 50 two-year deadline approaches following the referendum results, David Cameron will be put under pressure to "steady the ship" over the coming weeks. Remain campaigners believe that it is possible that the Brexit could result in reverting to trading with the EU under World Trade Organization rules, which would involve exporters being hit by import taxes or tariffs.

After all 32 local authority areas in Scotland returned majorities for Remain, Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said that the referendum results make it “clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union".

Germany's foreign minister Frank Walter Steinmeier commented that today is "a sad day for Europe and Great Britain".