With recent news that the pound took a tumble over the weekend, partly attributed to the future of Theresa May as Prime Minister and the upcoming EU summit, rumours that China is looking to open its finance sector up to more foreign ownership, and updates on the latest trade announcement being teased by US President Trump after he pretty much told Japan they ‘will be the no.2 economy’ here are some comments from expert sources on trade worldwide.

Rebecca O’Keefe, Head of Investing at interactive investor, told Finance Monthly: “European markets have opened relatively flat, with the FTSE 100 the main beneficiary after sterling’s latest fall, as pressure mounts on Theresa May who is struggling to maintain her grip on power. The gravity defying US market has been the driving force behind surging global markets, so investors will be hoping that the Republicans can get their act together and deliver key US tax reform to help support the path of growth.

In sharp contrast to Persimmon’s lacklustre results and a gloomy report from the RICS last week, Taylor Wimpey’s trading update is much stronger and paints a relatively rosy picture of the current housing market. Confirmation of favourable market conditions and high demand for new houses is good, although there are early warning signs that the situation might deteriorate, with slowing sales rates and a drop in its order book. Share prices have already come off recent highs, amid fears that the sector had got ahead of itself and investors will be hoping for more help from the Chancellor in next week’s budget to try and provide a new catalyst for the sector.

Gambling companies have been making out like one armed bandits since the summer, as expectations grow that the Government will compromise on a much higher figure for fixed odds betting terminals than the £2 maximum suggested during this year’s election campaign. However, while betting shops are the focus of attention for politicians, the real action can be found on smartphones and elsewhere – with surging revenues and profits being driven from online betting. Companies who have got their online strategy right are the significant winners and although Ladbrokes Coral has seen a 12% jump in digital revenues, the comparison against online competitors such as bet365 and Sky Bet, who both reported huge revenue growth last week, has left the market slightly disappointed and sent the share price lower.”

Mihir Kapadia, CEO and Founder of Sun Global Investments, had this to say: “The last couple of days have seen two of the big global economies China and Germany report large trade surpluses underlining their robust performance over the year. In contrast, the UK economy has been on a downbeat weakening trend as Brexit and political uncertainties lead to declining economic confidence and slower growth.

Data released last month showed August’s trade deficit at £5.6 billion, and in comparison, today’s data of £3.45 billion for September has been a better than expected improvement, but nevertheless indicative of an additive gap that appears unlikely to be closed anytime soon.

While Brexit uncertainty has weakened the pound against its major peers, it had helped boost exports but in turn has also made imports more expensive. This is the short term “J Curve” effect which is often seen after a devaluation.  Over the long term, the weaker pound is perhaps likely to help the trade deficit as exports rise (due to the lower pound and higher growth in the global economy) while import growth slows down due to the slowdown in the UK.”

Here John Milliken, Chief Operating Officer at Infomedia, delves into the statistics and facts of online, mobile and digital payments, how they differ between regions, and why.

According to a report by UNCTAD - the United Nations body on international trade and development - online, mobile and digital currency payment systems are set to overtake credit and debit cards as the most popular ways to pay in e-commerce worldwide by 2019. The research suggests that the share of credit and debit cards in global payments will drop to 46% by 2019 from the 51% forecasted three years ago.

Last year, China’s mobile revenue hit $5.5 trillion, a figure that is 50 times more than the size of America’s $112 billion market, according to consulting firm iResearch. Similarly, in the last year alone, Japan’s e-commerce market was valued at $89 billion, with half of that coming from mobile.

By comparison, in the UK and US, many brands, from retailers to publishers, continue to struggle to deliver a mobile experience that enables a convenient and simple payment method and encourages consumers to spend. As a result, despite the fact that mobile devices have consistently driven the highest levels of engagement compared to any other platform, it continues to experience the lowest conversion rates.

So, what is it the East is doing differently to the West that has caused mobile revenue to sky rocket?

The Asian Mobile Market

The Asian technology industry - particularly mobile - has pulled ahead of what we’ve seen in the West. China and Japan, like many other developing markets, have not followed the pattern of the West in going from physical shops to PC to laptop to smartphone. Instead many consumers are going straight to smartphones without previously owning a fixed internet connection.

According to Zenith’s Mobile Advertising Forecasts for 2017, mobile accounts for 73% of time spent using the internet globally, however in the UK this figure is just 57%. By comparison, in China, internet users reached 668 million in June 2015, and 549 million of those users (almost 90%) access the internet primarily via their mobile devices. In other words, the number of internet users in China is more than twice the population of the US and almost the population of Europe, and most of those individuals are walking around with a smartphone.

With these figures in mind, it’s clear that mobile is prevalent in China - it’s a way of life, not just a medium of communication. On mobile, consumers talk, text, shop, order food, hail taxis, book travel, pay for products and services, deposit money into their bank or transfer money, amongst other things. Most Chinese companies have recognised this, and build their advertising and marketing, customer communication, shopping, purchasing, and even their payment programmes around mobile. In fact, about half of all e-commerce in China happens on mobile, compared to just over a fifth in the US and around a third in the UK.

As a result, rather than focusing on card payments, merchants and mobile operators in China and Japan have worked together to develop truly frictionless mobile payment processes. In China in particular, much of this is driven by mobile payment services via social messaging service WeChat and AliPay, its paypal equivalent. In fact, Alipay recently signed with Starbucks to enable e-payment at all 2,800 Starbucks locations, while at a KFC, diners can pay via Alipay using facial recognition technology. In Japan however, DCB is the most popular payment method accounting for more than 50% of all ‘online’ transactions - a number that has risen consistently over the past five years as more consumers move away from card payments.

It is clear there is an opportunity for brands to deliver the same conversion rates on mobile seen in Japan and China if they are able to adapt to behavioural change. And although the Chinese market appears to be different to the West, it has actually just reached the predicted next stage for all markets quicker. By acknowledging that consumers want the quickest and easiest payment processes, we can also deliver an experience that is frictionless and encourages customers to convert from browsing to spending on mobile. In summary, it is only when brands begin to deliver and offer a mobile first experience that they too, will be able to maximise on the mobile opportunity.

For our October front cover story, Finance Monthly reached out to Joseph Pacini - the CEO and Co-Founder of XIO Group. He is responsible for the strategy and management of the global multibillion alternative investments and research. Headquartered in London, XIO Group also has operations in China, Hong Kong, Germany, Switzerland, United Kingdom and the United States.

XIO Group’s strategy is to identify and invest in market-leading and high-preforming businesses located across Europe and North America, and to help these companies in capitalizing on untapped opportunities in fast-growing markets, especially those in Asia. Here Joseph tells us more about it.

What have been the alternative investment trends in Hong Kong and globally in the past twelve months.

What we have seen is that there has been a tremendous amount of competition in the market for high-quality assets. To differentiate ourselves from our competitors, we have sought to uncover untapped opportunities and proprietary deals, in order to generate substantial returns for our investors.

What were XIO Group’s beginnings?

I had known Athene Li for many years from Asia and from when I was Head of Alternative Investments at BlackRock. Initially, we were planning to work together under the BlackRock Alternatives team, but after a variety of personal/firm decisions, we decided that it would be a great opportunity to set up our own firm with a specific strategy to invest in market-leading businesses and take them to Asia.

What considerations do you look at when identifying a business to invest in?

When we look at businesses, we want to have a market leader that is already dominant in their home market, but may not have achieved that globalization to the degree that they want. We then assist the company and help them grow. We can help them grow in many regions, whether that’s in North America, Europe or Asia. However, our particular expertise is in growth into China.

What challenges would you say you and XIO encounter on a regular basis? How are these resolved?

The challenges that we and XIO face on a regular basis are connected to the intense competition on the market. There’s also a misconception that we focus solely on Chinese companies, which couldn’t be farther from the truth. In fact, we do not invest in China at all; our growth opportunities are bringing companies from the West into global high-growth markets – and specifically China.

How does your experience in alternative investments inform your decision-making strategy at XIO Group?

Having worked at large firms previously, such as Bain Capital, JP Morgan and Blackrock, I understood how large institutional players assess and go after certain markets for alternative investments, so this has given me a great foundation. However, I think running your own firm is very different, as you are an entrepreneur as well and it forces you to be “scrappy”. Effectively, you fight harder when it is your own firm because you own your destiny – whether it be success or failure.

As CEO, how do you ensure you are directing the company in the correct direction? How do you advise your team to make the correct decisions for the company?

I would simply state that as CEO, my job is to set broad goals and principals, and then allow my team to work within our framework to achieve those objectives. For example, looking at where we want to diversify our business, how we want to grow our platform, the types of businesses we look for and how we build out our portfolio – these are the strategic areas I focus on. For other decisions, we allow that to be done more on a deal team basis. I look to give our colleagues the knowledge and responsibility, as well as opportunity to bring forward their ideas on what a good investment platform would be. With that also comes the accountability.

What does a typical day look like for you? What daily challenges do you encounter and how do you overcome them?

I tend to be travelling for 2 weeks of the month but my days are similar. I start with calls to Asia for the first few hours, then I deal with meetings in the UK and in the afternoon, and then I deal with calls back to the USA. My time is divided between approximately a third spent on client type of items, a third on existing portfolios and a third on new and potential investment opportunities.

The main challenge as a CEO is how to prioritise. You have to take in a lot of information and really prioritise what’s the most important thing that only you can deal with at that time and then delegate the remaining tasks to others.

What are your strategic goals and vision for XIO’s future?

Our goal is to continue to grow out our platform, at first in private equity. Our long-term objectives are related to eventually diversifying into other alternative assets classes, similarly to how I have done it at other firms and overtime, really build a diversified alternative investments platform.

About XIO

XIO Group is a global multi-billion dollar alternative investments firm headquartered in London, United Kingdom. XIO Group’s strategy is to identify and invest in market-leading and high-performing businesses located across Europe and North America and to partner with management to help these companies in capitalizing on untapped opportunities in fast growing markets, particularly those in Asia. XIO Group has operations in the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Israel, Hong Kong, Mainland China and the United States of America.

 

About Joseph Pacini

Joseph Pacini is the Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of XIO Group. Prior to XIO Group, Joseph was Managing Director and Head of BlackRock Alternative Investors (BAI) for Asia Pacific. Based in Hong Kong, Mr. Pacini was responsible for developing client-focused alternative investment strategies as well as the continued growth of BlackRock’s USD $24 billion alternatives platform and product offering in Asia.

Prior to joining BlackRock in 2012, Joseph was the Head of JP Morgan Alternative Investments Group in Asia. In that capacity, Mr. Pacini’s responsibilities included the business development, origination, due diligence and structuring of hedge fund, private equity, real estate and direct deal opportunities for its USD$10 billion platform.

Before moving to Asia, Mr. Pacini was a member of the JP Morgan Private Bank Alternative Investments Due Diligence Team based in New York. Prior to joining JP Morgan in 2003, Joseph was an Analyst at the private equity firm Bain Capital, LLC. in London, England.

Joseph received a Bachelor of Science in International Business from Brigham Young University where he graduated with University Honours.

Website: http://www.xiogroup.com

According to a report co-authored by Yandong Jia, a researcher at the Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China, alongside Jun Nie, a senior economist at the Kansas City Fed, “analysis indicates that the momentum of Chinese growth is likely to slow in the near term."

As the world’s second largest economy, China’s GDP has seen a 6.9 YoY increase, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, the above report suggests further growth to be considered bleak. "An analysis of its underlying forces suggests this momentum may not be sustainable," it reads. "In addition, strength in policy-related variables has been waning, creating additional downside risks to near-term growth."

Finance Monthly, this week spoke to several expert sources on China’s economy and prospected continued growth. Here are Your Thoughts.

Josh Seager, Investment Analyst, EQ Investors:

Every so often, investor concern about a Chinese hard landing rises. There have been numbers of catalysts for this over the past three years, from Chinese equity market sell offs to expectation of capital outflow induced currency depreciation. Most have passed without issue and are now barely remembered

The biggest cause of concern, however, has been debt. This has led many commentators to predict a large credit crisis. We believe that such concerns are overemphasised and stem from a key misunderstanding: the Chinese economy is ultimately guided by the Communist party not market dynamics. Credit crises generally happen because heavily indebted borrowers lose access to financing. In China’s case, the communist party control both the lenders (the banks) and the problem borrowers (the heavily indebted State-Owned Enterprises (SOES). Consequently, they are in a perfect position to manage the riskier debts and avoid defaults.

The real risk to China is much less exciting. Without ‘creative destruction’ where unprofitable companies are allowed to default, resources become misallocated. This means that unprofitable and unproductive companies, many of whom should be bankrupt, hoover up capital, employees and materials that could be better used by more productive firms.

This is happening in China, SOEs are hoarding resources in spite of the fact that they have get 1/3 (capital economics) of the return on them that private companies do. The route out is through supply-side reform but is difficult. It requires bankruptcy, bank recapitalisation and would probably lead to higher unemployment and increased uncertainty.

The Chinese government is financially strong and can afford to do this now. However, reform will get more difficult and expensive as the stock of debt builds. If President Xi chooses to pursue reforms we are likely to see short term pain for long term stability. If not, we will see a continuation of the status quo for the next few years but future GDP will be lower as a result.

Jonathan Watson, Chief Market Analyst, Foreign Currency Direct:

The Chinese economy has been wobbling with concerns over the pace of economic growth, which peaked at nearly 15% in 2007 but has been languishing around 6.9% lately.

Both business and consumer debt is high, and there are wider concerns that the largely export driven growth the economy has seen in the last few decades is coming to a halt.

Previously voiced concerns over the legitimacy of Chinese economic data raises questions about the extent of the trouble the economy could be in. Overlooking those fears, what appears clear is that the Chinese economy is still improving. With the global economy predicted to grow by 3.6% this year and 3.7% next year, according to the IMF, China should have little to worry about.

As a net exporter, the global economy will continue to have an effect on China’s economic growth. Any readjustments could cause turbulence but I see the trajectory as positive. Rather than hitting a wall as many have been predicting for years, I expect the Chinese economy will be building over or through one…

Erik Lueth, Global Emerging Market Economist, LGIM:

The Chinese economy is indeed likely to slow from here, but it is unlikely to hit a wall. Growth has been above the official target of 6.5% so far this year, powered by exports and a buoyant property sector. But, both of these drivers are fading.

In response to runaway house inflation in prime cities, the government tightened prudential measures over the past year or so. This has led to weaker housing demand and prices with the latter now falling in tier-1 cities. Similarly, exports seem to have peaked with PMIs in advanced economies looking stretched and the Chinese currency no longer falling in real terms. In our base case the economy would slow from around 7% this year to 6.5% in 2018 and 6.2% in 2019.

We are concerned about high debt levels, but the Chinese economy hitting a wall is a mere tail event in our forecast. To begin with, a financial crisis doesn’t look likely (as I have argued here on our investment blog, Macro Matters). China’s debts to foreigners are negligible and the capital account remains tightly managed. Key debtors and creditors are state-owned—state-owned enterprises and banks, respectively—greatly reducing roll-over risks. And, shadow banking while risky is still too small to overwhelm the state banks.

Second, China still has ample fiscal space. If it were to increase its fiscal deficit – estimated at around 12.5% of GDP – by 2 percentage points over each of the next 5 years, government debt would rise from around 70% of GDP today to 105% of GDP in 2021. This is not negligible, but certainly manageable given high savings rates and potential growth.

If something has the potential to drive China against the wall, it would be the deflation of a property bubble. As always spotting a bubble is challenging, but on balance we discount it. According to BIS data real house prices have been flat since the global financial crisis on a nationwide basis. Moves in prime cities have been anything but sideways, but at 90% over 3 years, increases remain well below the 300% witnessed in Tokyo before its bubble burst in 1990.

Dr Ying Zhang, RSM Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University:

China’s economic growth from the factor-driven to an efficiency-driven in the past 3 decades has not only brought China to be the world manufacturing center in the past, but also leveraged China as one of the important “spinal joints” of the world-body for the future. The reason of its importance is consistent with the global phenomena and world economy integration, as well as the interdependence between China and the rest of the world.

China’s supply-driven and quantity-based catch-up model is very effective, particularly to bring China to the category of middle-income countries; however, once stepping into such a territory, the historical evidence already shows that the chance to be trapped in there is be very high, if without proper in-time transformation.

Due to the high-interdependence, China’s reduced economic growth rate, though not pulling China’s economy moving down, has pulled exponential impact on some countries in terms of their employment rate and economic performance. Such symptom calls for worries and blaming to China, with two different messages: one, China hits the wall; second, China is transforming and preparing for the innovation-driven economic growth model.

China’s current transformation, in terms of being inclusive and quality-based and dramatic rising evidence in domestic consumption and prosperous service sector, implies that China will not be falling into the first proposition. It is also supported by the vision and the joint effort of Chinese citizens, global participants, and Chinese government to build China as an inclusive society and sustainable economy for the sake of world integration and global sustainability. In principle, this direction is presented as a paradox where China’s transformation is empowered by massive entrepreneurship and innovation in the current technology-driven and digitalization era ,while presented with a reduced GDP growth rate. The underlying matter is our perception and the angle to view it.

China’s economy does not hit the wall. Instead, it is on drive with much more power. With corrected understanding on the relationship between what China is working on and what the statistics simply presented, there would be more space for the world to grow together, for the world economy to be more stabilizing, sustainable and integrative.

Franklin Allen, Executive Director, Brevan Howard Centre for Financial Analysis:

Academics and journalists often predict that the Chinese economy’s growth will “hit a wall” and slow down dramatically. So far this has not happened. The Chinese economy has slowed down from about 10% annual real GDP growth several years ago to the current 6.5-7.0%. My own view is that this kind of growth rate is likely to continue for the next few years at least. The Chinese government still has a large degree of control over many aspects of the economy and if growth appears to be missing this target, they can ensure enough extra activity is undertaken that it hits it. There is a significant amount of debt in the Chinese economy but much of this is local government debt. The problem is that the funding of local governments is not well structured currently. They do not have taxing powers and do not receive large block grants from the central government. At some point the Chinese government will need to solve this problem. However, in the short run debt figures in China should be interpreted in a different way than equivalent numbers in Europe or the US.

In the long run, I think the Chinese economy has the capability to grow more quickly than current rates. The problem is that the financial system does not provide productive small and medium sized enterprises with the financing they need. They are the growth engines the economy requires and has used in the past during the fast growth period. If you look at the interest rates these firms are prepared to pay in the shadow banking sector, it seems likely they can grow quickly if they could obtain finance through the formal financial system. At the moment this is geared up to provide large state-owned enterprises with finance but they do not require very much. They do not have many prospects for growth. Hopefully, reforms to the financial system that have long been discussed and that will allow flows to the firms that need then will be implemented before too long.

We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!

ICOs are like IPOs, but for new coins. By now you’ll have heard about Bitcoin and blockchain, except that by now there are already over 900 other brand-new cryptocurrencies, just like Bitcoin, competing for a cryto-market in which digital money has created its own markets, with its own B2B markets and so forth.

One of China’s latest bans involved the absolute ban on introducing new currencies, whereby neither private companies nor banks can make a move on the cryto-markets. This is widely considered, by FinTech and crypto-enthusiasts at large, as a bad move.

However, Jakob Drzazga, co-founder of Brickblock, a firm that is on the verge of its own upcoming ICO, welcomes this ban, and explains to Finance Monthly why.

The Chinese know very well that pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. The country’s rich list is often dubbed the 'Hogs-slaughtering List' and appearing on the list can immediately attract attention, investigation, and sometimes even prison time for financial misconduct.

Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) seem to have suffered a similar fate – getting too fat and attracting too much attention. On 4th September 2017, People's Bank of China declared ICO as an illegal fund-raising activity following weeks of intense and critical media speculations.  ICOs have reached a state of frenzy in China with reportedly USD 400 million raised since the beginning of 2017, in comparison to the global total of USD 2.16 billion. Millions were raised based on a white paper containing fancy concepts elegantly outlined, but understood by few, and scrutinized by fewer still.

The secret formula of getting rich quickly spread. For a country that has produced more millionaires than any other in the last 30 years, ICO is seen as a fast track to join the millionaire’s club.

When ICOs have become a business model, rather than a financing method for an innovative business to grow, something has to be done. The Chinese regulator has rightly done just that.

According to the regulator’s in-depth study of numerous white papers circulated in the local market, the fund-raising activities of 90% of ICO projects were distinctly dubious. Of the rest, less than 1% is genuinely invested in the technology claimed behind most ICO projects – blockchain. Therefore, there is an important distinction between China’s ICO ban and its support to the development of blockchain technology which has been included in the country’s 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020).

So why would Brickblock, a start-up that is just about to launch its ICO globally next month, welcome the China ICO ban?

The ban will help to tame the ICO hype and provide a healthier eco-system for genuine and committed blockchain businesses to stand out and stand up to the test.

The ban will have an adverse effect on the short-term speculative investment but not too much on long term strategic investment committed to developing sustainable blockchain businesses.

The future of asset allocation is no longer about different asset classes, not even about including crypto currencies as an asset class, it is about bridging the digital and real world asset through tokenization.

At Brickblock, we have a grand but simple vision: building a trading platform on the blockchain where transactions are done seamlessly and asset classes transcend beyond forms or borders.  We believe in tokenization as the future and as the new derivative market.

Just like the internet bubble, the fittest will survive and thrive. Neither ICO hype nor ban will help or hinder us to achieve our vision. To achieve that, we need strategic partners, visionaries, talents and the community who share our passion and long-term commitment.

Levels of financial technology (FinTech) adoption among consumers has surged globally over the past 18 months and is poised to be embraced by the mainstream, according to the latest EY FinTech Adoption Index. An average of 33% digitally active consumers across the 20 markets in the EY study now use FinTech.

The study, based on 22,000 online interviews with digitally active consumers across 20 markets, shows that the emerging markets are driving much of this adoption with China, India, South Africa, Brazil and Mexico averaging 46%.

China and India in particular have seen the highest adoption rates of FinTech at 69% and 52%, respectively. FinTech firms in these countries are particularly successful at tapping into the tech-literate but financially under-served segments, according to the study.

The UK has also shown significant growth, with adoption rates now standing at 42%.

The EY FinTech Adoption Index evaluates services offered by FinTech organisations under five broad categories – money transfers and payments services, financial planning, savings and investments, borrowing and insurance. It reveals that money transfers and payments services are continuing to lead the FinTech charge with adoption standing at 50% in 2017, based on the consumers that were surveyed. 88% of respondents said they anticipate using FinTech for this purpose in the future. The new services that have contributed to this upsurge include online digital-only banks and mobile phone payment at checkout.

Insurance has also made huge gains, moving from being one of the least commonly used FinTech services in 2015 to the second most popular in 2017, now standing at 24%. According to the study, this has largely been due to the expansion into technologies such as telematics and wearables (helping companies to better predict claim probability) and in particular the inclusion and growth of premium comparison sites.

Imran Gulamhuseinwala, EY Global FinTech Leader, says: “FinTechs are clearly gaining widespread traction across global markets and have achieved the early stages of mass adoption in most countries. The EY FinTech Adoption Index finds, on average, one in three consumers already consume FinTech services on a regular basis. FinTechs, particularly in the payments and insurance space, have been very successful in building on what they do best – using technology in novel ways and having a laser-like focus on the customer. It really is now a critical time for traditional financial services companies. If they haven’t already, they need to urgently reassess their business models to ensure they are able to meet their customers’ rapidly changing needs. Disruption is no longer just a risk – it is an undisputable reality.”

According to the study, 40% of FinTech users regularly use on-demand services (e.g. food delivery), while 44% of FinTech users regularly participate in the sharing economy (e.g. car sharing). In contrast, only 11% of non-FinTech adopters use either of these services on a regular basis.

The demographic most likely to use FinTech are millennials – 25–34-year olds, followed by 35–44-year olds. The study revealed that people in this age range are comfortable with the technology and that they also require a wide range of financial services as they achieve milestones such as completing their education, gaining full-time employment, becoming homeowners and having children.

There is however also growing adoption among the older generations: 22% of digitally active 45–64-year olds and 15% of those over 65 said they regularly use FinTech services.

The study has also identified a new segment of users, the ‘super-user’. These individuals use five or more FinTech services and account for 13% of all consumers. ‘Super-users’ generally consider FinTech firms to be their primary providers of financial services.

The EY FinTech Adoption Index says that FinTech adoption is set to increase in all 20 markets covered by the study. Based on consumers’ intention of future use, FinTech adoption could increase to an average of 52% globally. The highest proportional increases of intended use among consumers is expected in South Africa, Mexico and Singapore.

Imran Gulamhuseinwala says: “There are those who believe that FinTechs struggle to translate the innovation and great customer experience that they create into real customer adoption. The EY FinTech Adoption Index suggests that thinking is now outdated.

“FinTechs are not only becoming significant players in the financial services industry, but are also shaping its future. Their new propositions are increasingly attractive to consumers and this trend is only set to continue as awareness grows, concerns are allayed and new advancements are made. Traditional firms, who sometimes struggle to deliver the same seamless and personalised user experiences, will undoubtedly need to step up their efforts to remain competitive. I think it’s likely that we will see greater collaboration between traditional firms and FinTechs in the future.”

(Source: EY)

Commodities declined in April on weakening industrial demand expectations out of China and increasing US crude inventories, according to Credit Suisse Asset Management.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return performance was negative for the month, with 15 out of 22 Index constituents posting losses.

Credit Suisse Asset Management observed the following:

• Industrial Metals decreased 3.40%, led lower by Nickel, amid weakening demand expectations out of China as measures introduced to tighten property development and investment appear to have taken effect.
• Energy declined 2.99% as US inventories of crude remained well oversupplied relative to average historical levels despite the tightening of international crude inventories.
• Agriculture lost 1.23%. Coffee declined due to reports that US stockpiles of green coffee beans reached their highest level since the early 1990s, dampening near-term demand expectations for imports.
• Precious Metals declined 0.56% after the first round of voting in the French presidential election eased risks of the country's potential exit from the Euro.
• Livestock gained 7.42%. Live Cattle increased the most on higher exports versus a year prior along with heightened cattle headcount concerns from anticipated cold and snowy weather in the US Midwest.

Nelson Louie, Global Head of Commodities for Credit Suisse Asset Management, said: "Geo-politics continue to remain at the forefront of macroeconomic attention. Meanwhile, European economic data have been generally constructive as of late, and political stabilization may make it easier for the positive momentum to continue, which could be supportive of economically-sensitive commodities. Within the Energy sector, global crude oil and petroleum products inventories continue to tighten, partially due to the OPEC-coordinated production cuts, with a decision in May on the table as to whether or not to extend those cuts. The resulting higher prices has led to increased US crude oil production, though not enough to fully offset the production cuts or increased demand. Thus, there are some positive signs indicating the tightening may have begun as the fundamentals underlying these markets continue to slowly improve."

Christopher Burton, Senior Portfolio Manager for the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy, added: "The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration signaled the possibility of a return to an El Niño phenomenon in late summer. Resulting weather events may affect the key production cycle for agricultural crops, particularly grains within the US, which may cause prices to rise.  Separately, the March Jobs Report indicated that the US unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in almost ten years while wages continued to gradually increase. These statistics are suggestive of a tightening labor market and possible progress towards the US Federal Reserve's goal of sustainable maximum employment. However, the Fed still maintains its forward guidance of only two additional rate hikes this year. This slow normalization of interest rates coupled with rising wage pressures may increase the probability that inflation overshoots expectations."

(Source: Credit Suisse AG)

Heidrick & Struggles China recently conducted a survey of 151 senior executives at director level or above in mainland China to understand how extensively employer branding affects corporate success, and the factors that attract them to and retain them at an organization.

"Leaders of multinational corporations in China are finding it even more challenging to attract the leaders they need to thrive in today's operating environment – the 'new normal' which has been shaped by slower economic growth, higher costs, stricter regulations, the disruptive pressures of e-commerce and China's changing demographics," said Linda Zhang, Partner-in-charge of Heidrick & Struggles' Shanghai office. "Due to the shortage of skilled workers and high attrition rates, companies continue to cite talent as a top concern."

When asked to pick the three most crucial factors that make an organization a good place to work, respondents name 'high quality of senior leadership' (57%) and 'attractive corporate culture' (52%) higher than 'a competitive employment offer in terms of salary and benefits' (49%). Yet, good company brand and reputation, clear personal development and promotion path are seen as less important factors when it comes to the pull factors.

When asked what attracts them to a company, over 90% of the executives in the survey say that having senior leaders who are charismatic, inspiring, credible spokespeople is very important to their decision in joining a company. This aligns with the trend of 'CEOs as celebrities', with high-profile, charismatic executives such as Alibaba's Jack Ma and Baidu's Robin Li becoming synonymous with their company's image, and inspiring employees and customers alike.

"Our experience shows that the turnover rate of senior executives in China is roughly 12-15%. As the competition for talent heats up, companies cannot rely on remuneration as the only weapon for attracting and retaining best-in-class senior leaders," said George Huang, Head of China at Heidrick & Struggles. "Most senior level employees in China would like to follow an inspiring leader with a strategic vision, whether it is to achieve certain business or financial goals, or to disrupt an industry with an emerging technology. The satisfaction that comes from working with inspirational leaders that cultivate a strong company culture is increasingly influencing senior-level executives' employer decision."

When it comes to retention, the most important leadership qualities that encourage employees to stay are that senior leaders trust their staff, have a high level of transparency, and foster two-way communication between management and employees.

According to the study, when asked to pick the three most important factors for a company's structure and business model, recognition of high achievers (99%), a friendly and collaborative working environment (93%), and respect and encouragement for diverse thinking and new ideas (91%) are the key building blocks constituting a compelling corporate culture. These results are similar to those in the Asia Pacific Consumer Markets Report 2015 – a previous Heidrick & Struggles employer branding survey of senior executives across the Asia Pacific region – where 98% of respondents said that diversity of thinking in the workplace is the most important characteristic, while recognition of high achievers was in second place at 97%.

Roughly 31% of executives surveyed say they are currently looking for new job opportunities and hope to leave within 12 to 18 months; an additional 29% say they may leave within the next two years if better opportunities are available. This finding suggests that employees in China may have less patience with a suboptimal status quo at work than employees elsewhere in Asia. In the previous Asia Pacific survey, just 30% said they were considering leaving their employers, and only just over half of this group hoped to make a move within 18 months.

The survey included senior executives from a wide range of industries at multinational companies in China, including industrial (42%), consumer (19%), healthcare (16%), technology (10%), financial services (5%), professional services (3%), marketing services (2%), education/not-for-profit (1%), and conglomerate (2%). All respondents came from companies with more than 5,000 employees globally, and 79% have more than 1,000 employees in China. For a majority, China accounts for more than 10% of their company's global revenue.

(Source: Heidrick & Struggles)

A new UN study reveals that Alipay and WeChat Pay enabled US$2.9 trillion in Chinese digital payments in 2016, representing a 20-fold increase in the past four years. The data shows that digital payments, using existing platforms and networks, provide access to a wider range of digital financial services, expanding financial inclusion and economic opportunity throughout China and neighboring countries.

The new report by the UN-based Better Than Cash Alliance, Social Networks, E-Commerce Platforms and the Growth of Digital Payment Ecosystems in China – What It Means for Other Countries, contains key lessons to help other countries include more people in the economy by transitioning from cash to digital payments. This shift could increase GDP across developing economies by 6 percent by 2025, adding US$3.7 trillion and 95 million jobs, according to a McKinsey Global Institute report.

"Social networks and e-commerce platforms are growing in every economy, whether large or small," says Ruth Goodwin-Groen, Managing Director at the Better Than Cash Alliance. "In China digital payments are thriving from these channels, bringing millions of people into the economy. This matters because we know that when people – especially women – gain access to financial services, they are able to save, build assets, weather financial shocks, and have a better chance to improve their lives."

"Widening access to financial services has always been at the heart of Ant Financial's mission and we are proud to have empowered more people to save, invest and gain access to capital. There is a quiet revolution underway and we know, firsthand, that our services are making a real difference to hundreds of millions of consumers. But, as this ground-breaking UN report highlights, this revolution is only just beginning. We see tremendous potential to bring many more people into the financial system, in China and markets around the world," says Eric Jing, CEO of Ant Financial Services Group, which operates Alipay.

Key findings from the report:

• More people have opportunities to save and invest. Platforms such as Alibaba's Yu'e bao make investing money into diverse sets of financial products more accessible for low-income populations. This product allows them to invest the money left on digital accounts, leading incrementally to long-term savings. From 2013 to 2016, Yu'e bao has grown to manage US$117 billion and is now serving over 152 million customers.
• Digital finance helps dramatically increase access to capital for small merchants. As of September 2016, a total of RMB 740 billion (US$107.3 billion) had been lent on the Alipay platform to over 4.11 million small and micro enterprises and entrepreneurs.
• Big data generated through these platforms helps to build credit-scoring history and boosted access to credit, particularly for low-income financially-excluded populations. For example, Sesame Credit offers an alternative creditworthiness assessment by examining the credit history, financial behavior, contractual capacity, identity, and social networks of users.

The study also found both Alipay and WeChat are expanding beyond China and investing in major fintech and payments providers. They are joined by other major communication platforms, utilizing existing social networks and e-commerce platforms to drive digital payments and financial inclusion. The report found opportunities especially strong in countries with a high smartphone uptake and collaboration between the private and public sectors:

• In South Africa, 78 percent of all internet traffic takes place over mobile channels – one of the highest rates in the world. However, despite the continued growth of adoption rates, only 15 percent of South Africans reported making a purchase on a mobile phone in the preceding month when surveyed in 2016.
• In India, both Ant Financial and Tencent have bought into the Indian mobile payments market, which is enjoying rapid growth under new regulation. Ant Financial and Alibaba invested up to $900 million in PayTM, as well as sharing staff and technical expertise. The result: PayTM has grown from 5 million to around 200 million users in just the last few years.
• Indonesia was the fastest-growing m-commerce market in the world in 2016, expanding 155 percent from January 2016 to January 2017. Some of this growth may be due to the release in 2015 of BBM Pay's Instant Mobile Payments. The popular BBM chat app has over 55 million users in Indonesia and continues to develop.
• In South America, markets have the infrastructure necessary to build payment ecosystems similar to those seen in China. Fifty-nine percent of the South American population uses social media, and 52 percent connect with social media over their mobile phone. Yet the digital payments space remains fractured, and no payments provider has linked their service to these platforms in a significant way, or vice versa.

(Source: Better Than Cash Alliance)

Colliers International is an industry-leading global real estate company with more than 16,000 skilled professionals operating in 66 countries. What sets the company apart is not what they do, but how they do it.

 The firm’s enterprising culture encourages Colliers people to think differently, share great ideas and create effective solutions that help clients accelerate their success.

 Kelvin Chow is Head of Landlord Representation, Office Services Department in Colliers North China. Kelvin has worked in Colliers for 15 years, assisting numerous tenants (i.e. P&G, Oracle, Schneider Electric, Cummins, 3M, Asia Development Bank etc.), as well as landlords (i.e. Poly, China Merchants Shekou Holdings, China Overseas, China MINMETALS Corporation etc.) with dealing with their office leasing related work. Here Kelvin tells us more about Colliers and shares his insights on the real estate sector in China.

How would you describe the current trends in relation to commercial projects in the Chinese real estate market?

In terms of commercial markets or commercial projects, we pay more attention to economy, because the tenants in the office buildings are from various industries. If most industries are prosperous, the economy is strong. China’s economic growth had been decelerating for several years and the current state of the economy is not as strong as it was a few years ago. In the upcoming couple of years, these trends are likely to continue, as the economy transits to service-led growth. The Chinese Government has set 6.5% as the goal of GDP Growth in 2017. Chinese economy is undergoing a period of development and model transformation. Before the new model matures, the economy can’t be prosperous - it needs time. Based on this, commercial projects face more challenges, including tenants’ cost sensitivity, more renewal and less relocation, more downsize and less expansion, trends of moving from high-cost areas and buildings to low-cost areas and buildings which results in decentralization.

One thing must be stressed - commercial markets or projects rely on Tertiary Industry much more than on Secondary Industry and Primary Industry. This is why we could see the market of Tier I cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) being much more active than that of Tier II and Tier III cities. Simultaneously, the rental of Tier I cities is much higher than that of Tier II and Tier III cities, while Tertiary Industry in Tier I Cities is much more developed than that of Tier II and Tier III cities.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, out of the Top 15 Cities in Mainland China, in terms of GDP, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are all Tier I Cities, are in the Top 4 (Shanghai being number 1, followed by Beijing). However, the Tertiary Industry of Beijing contributed close to 80% of GDP, which is much higher than that of Shanghai. It explained why the rental of Beijing Grade A Office Buildings is higher than that of Shanghai and the vacancy rate of Beijing Grade A Office Buildings is also lower. The average vacancy rate of Tier I cities in Mainland China is a little lower than 10%, while the figure of Tier II cities is close to 25%. What a big gap!

We also monitor FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) - the good news is that it remains stable. There are still newly registered foreign-investment enterprises and the total number of existing foreign-investment enterprises still increases, which means that the Chinese market is still attractive to foreign enterprises.

FAI (National Fixed Asset Investment) and REI (Real Estate Investment) is continuously increasing, however the growth decelerates. In 2009, National Fixed Asset Investment increased 23.8%, but in 2016, it was 17.4%. Due to residential markets cools, Real Estate Investment only increased a little (approximately 1%).

To summarise, territorialisation remains the key driver and investment in real estate slowed down. Under such economic and market environment, more and more office buildings landlords take aggressive preference policies, such as more fitting out period, longer rent-free period, lower rental, higher brokerage fee and so on, in order to attract tenants outside the building and retain existing tenants.

In newly developing commercial projects, more landlords invite professional consultancies to get involved at a very early stage, aiming to ensure that the projects are competitive in the long run, as most of the new buildings are located far from the cities’ traditional core areas.

China has seen a boom of co-working spaces in recent years with hundreds of thousands of operators emerging. The concept came from Mainland China in 2015 and grew in 2016 when numerous office spaces were transformed into co-working spaces. There are 3 main reasons for the popularity of the concept:

-Chinese Government encourages entrepreneurship and innovation, which is an important part of China’s Economic Reform.

-As previously mentioned, traditional office space faces more challenges, due to the current state of the market. The vacancy rate is high, especially in Tier II and Tier III cities and these landlords see co-working as a new growth point.

-Co-working space operators learn a lot from WeWork – another successful business model that they have been following.

The most famous operator in Mainland China is Urwork, which was founded in Beijing in 2015. To date, Urwork has entered more than 20 cities in Mainland China. Colliers International was appointed as an Exclusive Leasing Agent by Urwork back in 2015, and has been supporting Urwork with the leasing of its growing number of co-working office spaces.

What shifts do you and the firm expect throughout 2017?

In the current Chinese market, most enterprises return back to Tier I Cities, in order to avoid risk. However, what we expect to do is to enlarge our market from Tier I Cities to Tier II, and even Tier III Cities. We plan on selecting our market cautiously and executing our strategy step by step.

The reason for many enterprises returning back to Tier I cities is that they see a market that is not so active.  We see it in a different way. Every market has its own unique gene and what we do is trying to find it and then follow it. In a market that is not so active, landlords need more help and usually are willing to pay more. We convey resources such as experience, clients and talents to help the local markets. We believe that we could contribute a lot to these emerging markets.

Additionally, in Tier I Cities like Beijing, we shift our main market from brand new buildings to repositioning and remould buildings.  In core city areas, there’s very limited land supply, but many old buildings need to be reconstructed to meet the market’s needs and improve rental return. New technology creates new industries, which need different types of properties.

Besides hardware upgrading, we also advise landlords to start thinking more innovatively – changing your methods could result in higher rental return.

You assist clients with commercial leasing and sales of commercial projects - what are the three top issues they require assistance with?

Our clients, the developers and the landlords of the commercial projects see tenants’ quality and reputation, rental return and leasing speed as their three main priorities.

What makes yourself and Colliers ideally equipped to help with these issues?

Aiming to exceed the landlord’s expectation, what we do is to confirm the exact client positioning at the very beginning. We know that no single office building could meet all tenants’ requirements and actually, it is not even necessary to do so. So what we need to do first is to define what kind of tenants we should specifically focus on - based on industry activity analysis, office leasing market knowledge and forecast, competitive buildings analysis and comparison with our representing buildings, market leasing transaction data etc. Then we provide clear client portrait –which could guarantee the tenant quality and reputation, as well as rental return and is valuable for the leasing speed. In addition, to make sure that the building could be leased as fast as possible, we approach the target clients directly, not only relying on general agencies, as most companies do.

Last but not least, in 2017, we would pay more attention on domestic companies. The strength of international agencies is to serve MNCs. However the current Chinese economy and market environment, present more opportunities for Chinese companies to be active in relation to office setting up, expansions and relocations.

United Steelworkers (USW) International President Leo W. Gerard issued the following prepared statement at a press conference this week where the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) released a study outlining the jobs lost from the US-China trade deficit since 2001. The EPI study identifies job losses in every state and congressional district.

"EPI's study paints a stark picture of the damage that the growing US trade deficit with China has inflicted on workers. Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, more than 3.4 million jobs have been lost across the country. No state or congressional district has been immune from the negative impact of China's trade policies.

"China has used virtually every tool, legal and illegal, to steal our jobs and undermine our manufacturing base and economy. Subsidies, dumping, overcapacity, currency manipulation and cyberespionage are all practices used by China to help amass a $3.9 trillion trade surplus since 2001. Mounting trade deficits are sapping our economic strength and undermining our national security. It's time to demand that China play by the rules.

"The USW is the largest industrial union in North America. Our members know firsthand the impact of China's policies. We have participated in or initiated dozens of trade cases at tremendous cost - money and jobs - to respond to China's actions. Our government needs to recognize how its flawed trade policies have damaged workers and their communities, while corporations and Wall Street have reaped profits. We need a new approach to trade that puts working families first.

"Trade played an enormous role in last year's campaigns. Promises have been made to address these problems, but time is growing short. Working Americans want change and expect their leaders to take action rather than continuing to cater to the special interests who offshore production and outsource jobs. Talk is cheap and threats are easy.

"What is needed is a clear, consistent and comprehensive approach to deal with China's protectionist and predatory trade practices. Politicians have talked about the need to change our nation's trade policies, but slogans and speeches are no substitute for action."

To see full report, click here. For more on the EPI, go to www.epi.org

(Source: EPI)

Zhaopin Limited recently released its 2016 White-Collar Worker Year-End Bonus Survey Report. The report found that more than 50% of white-collar workers in China did not get year-end bonuses in 2016. More than 11,500 white-collar workers participated in the survey.

According to Zhaopin's survey, 50.9% of survey respondents did not get any year-end bonus in 2016, down from 66% in 2015. 39.5% of white-collar workers had received their bonuses by the end of 2016, much higher than 13.4% in 2015.

Cash is still the most common form of year-end bonus for white-collar workers. Some companies offered physical gifts as annual bonuses, including company-made products, cameras, liquor, pork, fish, fruits, sauna coupons, inflatable dolls, rice cookers, tissue paper, and lottery tickets.

White-collar workers' satisfaction with year-end bonuses in 2016 remained at a low level of 2.18 (measured from 0 to 5, with 5 as the highest), although slightly higher than 2.07 in 2015, Zhaopin found. Employees in state-owned enterprises had the highest satisfaction score at 2.46, while workers at private companies had the lowest satisfaction score of 2.07.

In terms of work experiences, employees with less than one year's experience had the highest satisfaction (2.45) with the annual bonus, as their expectations were relatively low. The satisfaction with year-end bonuses declined as work experience increased because more experienced white-collar workers had higher expectations, said Zhaopin experts.

The average year-end bonus for white-collar workers in 2016 was RMB12,821, higher than RMB10,767 in 2015, but lower than RMB13,613 in 2014, according to Zhaopin's survey.

The finance industry offered the highest average year-end bonus in 2016, at RMB17,241, followed by RMB16,839 for the real estate/construction industry. The eEducation/arts and crafts industry had the lowest average year-end bonus at RMB7,433.

White-collar workers in Beijing got the highest average year-end bonus, at RMB15,846, followed by RMB14,640 in Shanghai and RMB14,605 in Shenzhen.

The more work experience, the higher the year-end bonuses for white-collar workers, Zhaopin found. The average year-end bonus for employees with more than ten years of experience was RMB20,471, compared with RMB5,675 for employees with less than one year of experience.

Among different types of companies, state-owned enterprises had the highest average year-end bonus at RMB17,318, while private companies had the lowest average year-end bonus, at RMB11,271.

The average year-end bonus for senior-level managers was RMB28,639, compared with RMB10,009 for ordinary employees.

In terms of occupations, white-collar workers in marketing/PR/advertising had the highest average bonus at RMB16,354, followed by RMB14,850 for R&D. Employees working in administration/logistics had the lowest average year-end bonus of RMB8,144.

(Source: Zhaopin Limited)