Legends abound of people making massive amounts of money as beginner traders in a single trade. Trading chatrooms are full of people bragging about how they had a hunch and took a chance that led to a sizable win. But professional traders need to be wary of such stories and concentrate on their craft, warns Warrior Trading founder Ross Cameron.
“A lot of people, unfortunately, treat trading very similar to playing the lottery,” said Ross Cameron. “They buy a ticket, they buy some stock, and they say, ‘Let's just see what happens.’ And really to me that is not even day-trading. It's gambling in the stock market.”
How People Talk About Trading Shows How They Think About It
“When I hear people call a trade ‘a play,’ that feels very akin to betting. And that, to me, just speaks to that mentality [of gambling],” said Ross Cameron. “But the fact is, I guess, enough people made money doing that during GameStop when stocks just kept going up, and [during] COVID, [that] some people thought they could just keep it up, and started upping the ante and taking bigger and bigger and bigger risks.”
But ultimately most of these “traders” didn’t keep their trading up, because at some point their luck ran out.
“The people that survived until now have only done so because they figured out a way to manage their risks,” said Ross Cameron. “They figured out a way to increase their probability.”
These traders are more like semiprofessional poker players, he said. Just like in poker, their trading “game” has reached a point where it's no longer a gamble.
“It's no longer betting if it’s no longer a game of chance because you have a strategy that has historical data,” Ross Cameron said.
Ross Cameron Sees Similarities Between Poker and Trading
Ross Cameron said he can see comparisons between poker and trading the markets. Participants in each can start as gamblers. But as they gain experience — and with a bit of luck on their side — they start to formulate strategies based on their understanding of the intrinsic nature of the game and other players at the table.
“They’re playing a game that produces consistency for them,” he said.
It wasn’t how he started trading. Ross Cameron always came to the job with analysis and strategy, treating his trades as anything but bets. But he can understand how others might have come to trading in such a way. The ones who stay, he says, do so because they change their mentality from gambler to professional.
Part of the transition comes from understanding the various success stories in the trading community and identifying which ones have the most teachable lessons. Stories of sudden success rarely do. Those of hard-earned gains over sustained periods of trading are the ones to take note of, he said.
It's about the type of success story: effort and intelligence over luck.
Success Stories Can Be Inspiring — but Dangerous
“I’ve been trading for over a decade because of a lot of hard work and a lot of consistency and strategy, whereas the success of someone who made millions on GameStop with an out-of-the-money options contract was a gambler,” Ross Cameron said. “He bought a lottery ticket. There is nothing wrong with winning the lottery, but let’s call it for what it is.”
Following the strategy of a guy who bought a lottery ticket isn’t a strategy for a sustained career in trading, says Ross Cameron. For every one of those people, millions made nothing — and thousands who lost their shirts.
Ross Cameron says beginner traders need to take note and temper their expectations. Very few people win the lottery.
“The first thing that traders need to expel is the notion that they will find any sort of quick success because that is just not how it works,” stated Ross Cameron. “While there are certainly exceptions to that, the typical experience is that people come in, they go way too big too soon, they blow up their accounts, and then they're gone. Knowing that most people do not find success, the first thing beginner traders may want to ask themselves is: What is it that most people are doing that’s causing them to lose?”
A lot of them are wrapped in the excitement of trying this new thing.
“They're jumping in with real money right away and very quickly they get in over their head. Maybe they have a little beginner's luck, which then follows by a period of overconfidence, which then creates a very quick and very real loss of capital,” explained Ross Cameron. “Then that feeling of sunken cost makes them think they’ve invested so much that they can't walk away and must continue to try to recoup.”
And oftentimes these beginners never did any real training or had any real education, so they don’t know what they’re getting themselves into.
Those Who Don’t Know What They’re Doing Are Gambling
“You can't just jump into trading with almost no experience, because you will almost certainly lose,” said Ross Cameron, who recommends that rather than looking at trading as a fun gamble in which you could make a quick million, look at it as an opportunity to learn about the financial markets.
“There's no better way to learn about finance than throwing yourself right into the market by active trading, because you learn about the function of the market, and you learn how it works,” he said.
But that doesn’t mean throwing away thousands on your first trades without any experience. That’s still simply a gamble. Instead, Ross Cameron says beginner traders should take courses, read trading chatrooms, and trade first in a trading simulator where real money isn’t on the line but valuable experience can be earned.
Trading doesn’t have to be a gamble. And for the professionals, it isn’t.
Disclosure: Sponsored content. Sponsorship may include, but is not limited to: payment for placement to the publication, to the writer for their time, or other arrangements.
Betting giant Caesars Entertainment has tabled a £2.9 billion bid for UK-based bookmaker William Hill and is in “advanced discussions” regarding a takeover, according to an announcement from the US company.
Caesars offered William Hill’s shareholders 272 pence per share for the UK firm, a premium of 57.6% on its 1 September closing price, the last day before Caesars first approached the company about a potential takeover.
Caesars said that William Hill’s board was “minded to recommend” the offer to its shareholders.
News of a bidding war between Caesars and buyout fund Apollo emerged last week, boosting William Hill’s shares to 312 pence each by close of play on Friday. However, Monday trading saw it shed around 11% to 278.5 pence, leaving the company with a value of £2.9 billion.
Caesars already owns a 20% stake in William Hill’s operations in the US, which includes exclusive rights to operate sports betting under the Caesars brand.
"The opportunity to combine our land based-casinos, sports betting and online gaming in the US is a truly exciting prospect,” said Tom Reeg, CEO of Caesars. “William Hill's sports betting expertise will complement Caesars' current offering, enabling the combined group to better serve our customers in the fast growing US sports betting and online market.”
[ymal]
Apollo – which is also one of two firms competing to buy UK supermarket giant Asda – has yet to publish details of its potential offer for William Hill.
In contrast to other gambling conferences, ICE London seeks to forge a connection between the offline sector and the online ‘iGaming’ sphere. The attendee list and event's floor reflect this amalgamation, with major brands from both land-based and online casinos showcasing their products alongside one another.
Organisers describe ICE as ‘the entire gambling ecosystem in one place’, referring to how not only casinos, but affiliates, payment solution providers, software developers and marketers are also represented. The jam-packed three-day event gives a good overview of the trends and topics shaping the multi-billion dollar industry. Here are a few themes at this year’s ICE which give us strong indications of what to expect for the future of gambling.
Blockchain Solutions
The relationship between cryptocurrencies and online gambling is a natural one; both crypto-technology and iGaming stem from digital innovation, and both concern varying degrees of risky investment. As more online players wish to preserve their privacy, cryptocurrencies present themselves as a practical alternative to traditional payment methods. FinTech companies offering integration of crypto-payment solutions to online casino platforms will be making their rounds at ICE, networking with those interested in the prospect of committing to the still burgeoning world of blockchain technology.
Facial Recognition Software
There are a number of focus points specifically for the land-based casino sector, as evidenced by this year’s exhibitions at ICE. One such technology which is peaking the interest of many attendees is that of AI facial recognition for land-based gambling establishment. The technology is developed to heighten security, strengthen statistics, and improve player experience. One provider of facial recognition is Fincore, a company which is demonstrating the benefits of monitoring player behaviour through assigning IDs to faces.
The suggestion is that this technology will allow casinos to more efficiently identify valuable players, problem gamblers, and trouble makers. “The Facial Recognition system uses the latest developments in Data Science (AI) to create a more easily managed and personalised offering,” says the B2B Commercial Director Jamie Maskey. Monitoring individual players with facial recognition will help casinos personalise VIP offerings and share information on cheaters and problem gamblers with other casinos.
Customer Verification Solutions
The importance of complying to KYC (Know Your Customer) particularly in the gambling industry can not be understated, and at this year’s ICE there will be a few FinTech companies showcasing their KYC solutions. One such company is Safened, a FCA-licensed payment institution that claims to make customer verification process faster, simpler, and more thorough. With so many regulated brands looking for cost-effective means of complying to KYC in light of the 4th EU Anti Money Laundering Directive and GDPR, it’s clear to see why these solutions are proving a hot topic at ICE. “We believe that the cascading of checks is an effective way to form a holistic view on a client and in the process to filter out fraudsters. There is a lot of activity in the digital KYC space, but what sets us apart is the fact that we are a regulated financial institution that can offer an end-to-end solution”, says Kirk Gunning, CCO of Safened.
Content Marketing
For online casinos, the increasing trend of outsourcing marketing and content services is evident by the growing number of creative agencies present at ICE. “Many online casinos that have traditionally relied entirely on affiliates are realising the value of increasing the degree to which they invest in their own marketing”, explains Lucy Jacobs from PlayFrank UK. “Stricter marketing regulation means online casinos want to retain control over their own advertising for 100% compliance, but it’s also a matter of realising how important a brand’s own content marketing is for a sustainable online presence and long-term brand awareness.” Offered by the many agencies at ICE are branding services, content writing, translation and localization and SEO. A number of discussion panels will also be held with regards to the topic of marketing gambling products.
Game Providers
Major casino game providers will, as usual, be present at ICE - including the biggest names in the industry such as NetEnt, Play’N’Go and QuickSpin. However, this year also marks the debut of some smaller but fast emerging providers. Red Tiger Gaming Limited is a relatively young name but is making waves at ICE where the developers are showcasing their unique Daily Jackpot games. Online casinos are continuously looking to strengthen their game portfolio and will be keeping a close eye on the next big providers in the industry.
Esports
Although esports betting has not yet exploded quite as exponentially as some have predicted, many existing sportsbooks believe there simply been a failure to seize the market. As such, a lot of networking is focused on bringing esports expertise together in developing a successful esports betting product. An ICE workshop held on the 6th of February will look at the potential of esports in relation to the gambling industry, focusing on an esports market overview, forecast and valuation. With the global esports market currently valued at $493 million, it seems that there are plenty of opportunities in this sphere. What sportsbooks have realised is that there are unique challenges of establishing a brand within the esports community - a community rather unlike the fanbase of traditional sports. It is these perceived challenges that the workshop intends to tackle.
Affiliate Programs
A record number of gambling affiliates have led to a need for more - and better - platform management tools than ever before. From casino operator's perspective, affiliate management tools have become increasingly important in keeping track of various partnerships and their costs. The London Affiliate Conference (LAC) will be held right after ICE so that those offering and seeking affiliate deals can attend both conferences. A panel talk will initiate discussion on how to organise affiliate programs and find appropriate partners, as well as how to offer better deals as an affiliate name in an increasingly competitive field.
There are 8,500 operators and 150 countries in attendance at this year’s ICE - most likely beating the record of last year's 3,000 attendees. Though the full scope of ICE’s impact on the gambling industry is better understood in the context of an annual overview, there’s no doubt that this year’s conference will be pivotal in helping shape and reflect the discussions central to the gambling industry and its future.
From the current situation in the US to oil and gambling stocks, Rebecca O’Keeffe, Head of Investment at interactive investor, shares some thoughts on this week’s news.
The huge importance of politics to equity markets might have led one to conclude that the US shutdown would be a negative factor for markets, but the bullet-proof nature of current markets, combined with limited economic impact on stocks that a shutdown delivers, has seen global markets shrug off any major concerns. The last US government shutdown in 2013 lasted sixteen days, during which the S&P 500 rallied 3.1% and the two prior shutdowns to that in 1996 and 1995 also resulted in gains for equity markets, so there is certainly precedent for investors to ignore these events. It is only if a protracted shutdown starts to impact consumer confidence and spending that investors are likely to sit up and take notice.
Gambling stocks have tumbled in early trade, after the weekend press suggested that the current government consultation might cut the fixed odds betting limit to just £2. Gambling companies have made hundreds of millions of pounds a year from fixed odds betting terminals and were hoping that the minimum stake would be towards the middle of the £2 and £50 consultation range. Although the consultation does not end until tomorrow, the suggestion that the response to the survey has been overwhelmingly in support of a cut to the minimum £2 means that this is indeed a significant threat to bookmakers.
In Germany, it looks like the stalemate that has afflicted German politics since September may finally be reaching a resolution, after the SPD voted to engage in coalition talks with Angela Merkel and her party. This vote will hopefully ensure that a repeat election can be avoided and should allow Chancellor Merkel to retain her place as a key lynchpin of the European Union and a major player in any Brexit talks.
Oil prices are on the rise this morning, as Opec and Russia have signalled their intent to co-operate on supply beyond the current deal terms. However, OPEC and Russia are just one half of the supply story, as producers in the US, Canada and Brazil are all expected to ramp up output in response to higher oil prices. With these new dynamics in the oil market, the possibility of higher supply is a major downside risk for the oil price.
The AI technology has been picking up steam in the past couple of years. It’s no longer a gimmick or a faraway fiction. Scientists from all around the world are slowly but surely cracking this riddle. Sure, they are still a long journey away from creating a true Artificial Intelligence, but each year we see significant breakthroughs in this field.
Today, you can find some form of AI in many everyday places. For example, Alexa and Siri are world famous AI assistants. They will create appointments, answer your questions, set alarms, shop, and a million other things. Another great example is the Tesla car. Thanks to Tesla’s AI, self-driving cars are no longer a work of fiction.
But what about the poker industry? Surely there must be an AI capable of playing poker at high levels. The answer is yes, there is. This infographic will show you how the poker’s AI developed throughout the history, as well as where it is now. You can find a lot of interesting stats and information in this infographic, but if you are interested in reading more about poker related stuff, visit our website.
With recent news that the pound took a tumble over the weekend, partly attributed to the future of Theresa May as Prime Minister and the upcoming EU summit, rumours that China is looking to open its finance sector up to more foreign ownership, and updates on the latest trade announcement being teased by US President Trump after he pretty much told Japan they ‘will be the no.2 economy’ here are some comments from expert sources on trade worldwide.
Rebecca O’Keefe, Head of Investing at interactive investor, told Finance Monthly: “European markets have opened relatively flat, with the FTSE 100 the main beneficiary after sterling’s latest fall, as pressure mounts on Theresa May who is struggling to maintain her grip on power. The gravity defying US market has been the driving force behind surging global markets, so investors will be hoping that the Republicans can get their act together and deliver key US tax reform to help support the path of growth.
In sharp contrast to Persimmon’s lacklustre results and a gloomy report from the RICS last week, Taylor Wimpey’s trading update is much stronger and paints a relatively rosy picture of the current housing market. Confirmation of favourable market conditions and high demand for new houses is good, although there are early warning signs that the situation might deteriorate, with slowing sales rates and a drop in its order book. Share prices have already come off recent highs, amid fears that the sector had got ahead of itself and investors will be hoping for more help from the Chancellor in next week’s budget to try and provide a new catalyst for the sector.
Gambling companies have been making out like one armed bandits since the summer, as expectations grow that the Government will compromise on a much higher figure for fixed odds betting terminals than the £2 maximum suggested during this year’s election campaign. However, while betting shops are the focus of attention for politicians, the real action can be found on smartphones and elsewhere – with surging revenues and profits being driven from online betting. Companies who have got their online strategy right are the significant winners and although Ladbrokes Coral has seen a 12% jump in digital revenues, the comparison against online competitors such as bet365 and Sky Bet, who both reported huge revenue growth last week, has left the market slightly disappointed and sent the share price lower.”
Mihir Kapadia, CEO and Founder of Sun Global Investments, had this to say: “The last couple of days have seen two of the big global economies China and Germany report large trade surpluses underlining their robust performance over the year. In contrast, the UK economy has been on a downbeat weakening trend as Brexit and political uncertainties lead to declining economic confidence and slower growth.
Data released last month showed August’s trade deficit at £5.6 billion, and in comparison, today’s data of £3.45 billion for September has been a better than expected improvement, but nevertheless indicative of an additive gap that appears unlikely to be closed anytime soon.
While Brexit uncertainty has weakened the pound against its major peers, it had helped boost exports but in turn has also made imports more expensive. This is the short term “J Curve” effect which is often seen after a devaluation. Over the long term, the weaker pound is perhaps likely to help the trade deficit as exports rise (due to the lower pound and higher growth in the global economy) while import growth slows down due to the slowdown in the UK.”
