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With the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Brothers’ shocking and unprecedented bankruptcy this month, Katina Hristova looks back at the impact the collapse has had and the things that have changed over the last decade.

Saturday 15 September 2018 marked ten years since the US investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed, sending shockwaves across the financial world, prompting a fall in the Dow Jones and FTSE 100 of 4% and sending global markets into meltdown. It still ranks as the largest bankruptcy in US history. Economists compare the stock market crash to the dotcom bubble and the shock of Black Friday 1987. The fall of Lehman Brothers was a pivotal moment in the global financial crisis that followed. And even though it’s been an entire decade since that dark day when it looked like the whole financial system was at risk, the aftershocks of the financial crisis of 2008 are still rumbling ten years later - economic activity in most of the 24 countries that ended up falling victim to banking crises has still not returned to trend. The 10th anniversary of the Wall Street titan’s collapse provides us with an opportunity to summarise the response to the crisis over the past decade and delve into what has changed and what still needs to.

As we all remember, Lehman Brothers’ fall triggered a broader run on the financial system, leading to a systematic crisis. A study from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has estimated that the average American will lose $70,000 in lifetime income due to the crisis. Christine Lagarde writes on the IMF blog that to this day, governments continue to ‘feel the pinch’, as public debt in advanced economies has risen by more than 30 percentage points of GDP – ‘partly due to economic weakness, partly due to efforts to stimulate the economy, and partly due to bailing out failing banks’.

Afraid of the increase in systemic risk, policymakers responded to the crisis through quantitative easing and lowering interest rates. On the one hand, quantitative easing’s impact has seen an increase in asset prices, which has ultimately resulted in the continuation of the old adage, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The result of Lehman’s shocking failure was the establishment of a pattern of bailouts for the wealthy propped up by austerity for the masses, leading to socio-economic upheavals on a scale not seen for decades. As Ghulam Sorwar, Professor in Finance at the University of Salford Business School points out, growth has been modest and salaries have not kept with inflation, so put simply, despite almost full employment, the majority of us, the ordinary people, are worse off ten years after the fall of Lehman Brothers.

Lowering interest rates on loans on the other hand meant that borrowing money became cheaper for both individuals and nations, with Argentina and Turkey’s struggles being the brightest examples of this move’s consequences. Turkey’s Lira has recently collapsed by almost 50%, which has resulted in currency outflow and a number of cancelled projects, whilst Argentina keeps returning for more and more loans from IMF.

Discussing the things that we still struggle with, Christine Lagarde continues: “Too many banks, especially in Europe, remain weak. Bank capital should probably go up further. 'Too-big-to-fail' remains a problem as banks grow in size and complexity. There has still not been enough progress on how to resolve failing banks, especially across borders. A lot of the murkier activities are moving toward the shadow banking sector. On top of this, continued financial innovation—including from high frequency trading and FinTech—adds to financial stability challenges. In addition, and perhaps most worryingly of all, policymakers are facing substantial pressure from industry to roll back post-crisis regulations.”

The Keynesian renaissance following that fateful September day, often credited for stabilising a fractured global economy on its knees, appears to have slowly ebbed away leaving a financial system that remains vulnerable: an entrenched battalion shoring up its position, waiting for the same directional waves of attack from a dormant enemy, all the while ignoring the movements on its flanks.

If you look more closely, the regulations that politicians and regulators have been working on since the crash are missing one important lesson that Lehman Brothers’ fall and the financial crisis should have taught us. Coming up with 50,000 new regulations to strengthen the financial services market and make banks safer is great, however, it seems  that policymakers are still too consumed by the previous crash that they’re not doing anything to prepare for softening the blow of a potential new one. They have been spending a lot of time dealing with higher bank capital requirements instead of looking into protecting the financial services sector from the failure of an individual bank. Banks and businesses will always fail – this is how capitalism works and no one knows if there’ll come a time when we’ll manage to resolve this. Thus, we need to ensure that when another bank collapses, we’ll be more prepared for it. As Mark Littlewood, Director General of the Institute of Economic Affairs, suggests: “policymakers need to be putting in place a regulatory environment that means that when these inevitable bank failures occur, they can fail safely”.

In the future, we may witness the bankruptcy of another major financial institution, we may even witness another financial crisis – perhaps in a different form. However, we need to take as much as we can from Lehman Brothers’ collapse and not limit our actions to coming up with tens of thousands of new regulations targeted at the same problem. We shouldn’t allow for a single bank’s failure to lead us into another global crisis ever again.

 

 

 

 

Following the 10 year anniversary of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, we take a look at former employees last moments working at the investment bank.

We all know the cloud is leading the way in transforming operations across financial organisations, but while a significant enabler, it represents just one element of much wider digital investment. We hear from Steven Boyle, CEO of Integrated Cloud Group, who discusses how cloud technology is only the beginning of true digital transformation for financial institutions.

Cloud is pulling the strings, but household names such as HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, and the Royal Bank of Scotland are increasingly investing in a host of transformative, agility-enhancing technologies such as biometrics, robo-advisors and artificial intelligence as they pledge to keep abreast with customers’ demands for faster, simplified banking interactions.

I see traditional organisations looking more and more to FinTech startups to build and integrate new functionality and that will improve services, allowing them to focus more on customer needs.

Last year, HSBC launched biometric security for mobile banking in the UK, claiming that it was the biggest rollout of its kind. The bank says that this will enable more than 15 million customers to access accounts, using voice or fingerprint recognition biometric technologies. Lloyds – which is looking at Amazon Echo technology for voice recognition – also passionately believes that such notions have huge implications for Britain’s 360,000 blind or partially sighted, potentially opening up banking like never before.

Certainly, to my mind, it all represents a significant leap forward for biometrics technology being used in the UK banking industry for the secure authentication of account holders.

First off the blocks was Barclays which has been using voice authentication in its call centres since 2013, and in 2014 announced plans to introduce finger vein recognition technology for some.

However, all HSBC customers will have access to fingerprint authentication services using the fingerprint readers that are built into Apple iPhones, in tandem with HSBC’s mobile banking app. Like Barclays, HSBC is using Nuance Communications voice recognition, which analyses over 100 unique characteristics to identify a speaker. Furthermore, once HSBC and First Direct customers have registered their finger and voice prints, they will no longer need to remember security passwords or PIN details. It’s clear to me that such innovations hold the potential to absolutely transform customer interactions.

Then there’s the much-discussed and analysed rise of the robots. The likes of Lloyds Banking Group, Barclays and Santander UK are further innovating with the introduction of digital robo-advisors – essentially, computer-generated recommendations based on online financial questionnaires  – which, it is thought, could help to fill the ‘financial advice gap’ for those with small savings pots who need investment advice but can’t necessarily afford it.

In this instance, the bank suggests how much to invest into certain funds, and then transacts on a customer’s behalf in return for a fee. While not necessarily a solution, it seems to me an important recognition of consumer needs in the wake of the retail distribution review which scrutinised the mis-selling of investment products and made it uneconomical for banks to provide advice. Certainly, platforms like Wealthfront and Betterment have already proved hugely popular – and it’s no coincidence that Lloyds jointly hosted an event entitled, ‘Can I Trust a Robo-Advisor?’ at London’s FinTech Week.

RBS is also reportedly planning to utilise robo-advisors across its investment and protection divisions as part of a cost-saving strategy that is expected to reduce the need for face-to-face advice.

Nevertheless, it should be noted that others are following an alternative path; HSBC is set to unveil a division of investment advisors for all customers, while Santander UK is introducing 225 investment advisors across its branches.

Another parallel disruptor is the rise of artificial intelligence which is set to allow consumers to talk to a device and receive the information they are looking for. In fact, it’s already managing many banks.

A leading proponent of AI – predicated on the belief that data is king for the leveraging of informed decision-making and risk management – has been Barclays, which says that the notion of touching a device could soon be obsolete when it comes to executing transactions. The bank sees digital technology as being crucial to its future and believes that its customers could soon be talking to a robot computer system to perform simple transactions.

Lloyds Banking Group introduced the first networked ATM in 1973, and has continued to innovate, now employing Google analytics tools to analyse customer behavior, allowing it to better understand customer needs and meet them in real time.

Amid this unprecedented period of digital upheaval, the opportunities for the banking sector are effectively limitless – suddenly the walls have come down and there are extraordinary possibilities all around. Big banks are turning to technology for myriad reasons, but at the heart of the drive for transformation are significant economic benefits, matched by enhanced agility, less risk, and a better customer experience.

Those that think heightened technology means less of a customer relationship should, to my mind, consider the idea that it could in fact serve to free up time for banking staff that will actually facilitate, rather than, hinder relationship building. This will, in turn, allow more unique needs to be addressed while the more mundane tasks are quickly and automatically fulfilled.

As data security concerns are increasingly answered by better protection, it all makes for a fascinating road head for the banking sector as it embarks on the journey to new heights of speed, accuracy and efficiency.

Agave Partners is a cross-border investment bank specializing in the access to the Chinese market for innovative product companies in such domains as Semiconductors, Telecommunications, Data Centres, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Automotive and Avionics.

With offices in San Francisco, Beijing and Chicago, Agave Partners represent US and European companies interested in developing strategic partnerships in China for their commercial development and for restructuring their capital. The company realizes Corporate Financing and M&A transactions.  

Agave’s ability to source the right strategic partners in China is in their unique blend of banking and operational experiences allowing to align corporate strategies and structure transactions beyond the aptitude of traditional investment banks. Founder and Managing Director Robert Troy tells CEO Today more about it.

 

Could you tell us a bit about Agave Partners’ M&A practice?

Our M&A practice focuses on mid-market US and European innovative companies, to which we provide our expertise in identifying Chinese industrial groups able to acquire companies whose offering fits the domestic needs.

Our unique positioning in this practice comes from the combination of our effective presence in China with an office in Beijing dedicated to developing strategic relationships with large industrial and private equity groups, and our expertise in technologies at the core of capital-incentive domains that align with the strategic roadmap of these groups.

These are critical ingredients to maximize the outcome of a deal that is beneficial to both parties, while efficiently navigating through the multiple hurdles, be they administrative, financial, or cultural.

 

Can you detail a recent transaction that Agave Partners advised on? What were some of the issues that you were faced with?

Agave Partners Advisors was mandated by Kalray SA to source a strategic partner in China with interest in using Kalray technology in its application domain and interest in investing in the company.

We prospected industrial groups that we know to be innovation hungry in highly competitive segments of the Chinese market, including data centres, avionics and automotive; searching for a company which can get a strong strategic advantage at adopting Kalray technology for serving its clients.

Because Kalray technology is very advanced, we found various industrial groups in China, among the most sophisticated, curious about it and genuinely interested in discovering how this technology can be put into practice in their product lines; how it offers a discriminant competitive advantage in better serving their clients; and questioning how fast the market can adopt.

On the buyer’s side, we were confronted to the challenge of promoting a disruptive technology and navigating the full cycle of technology assessment in situations involving product designs and many other steps driving to the strategic decision. Our blend of technologists and bankers’ expertise happened to be of critical importance.

On the seller side, we enjoyed a high-level cooperation with an agile client, not short of commitments when extensive travels and endless negotiations were required to match interests, assess the risks, commit on future developments and overall demonstrate a willingness to engage in a powerful but controlled relationship. Our key contributions have of course been to assist in structuring a complex deal negotiated by parties which were not even speaking the same language and belonging to extremely different business cultures. Our multicultural team made of people used to work and deal in Europe, the US and Asia has certainly been the second key factor of success.

 

What do you think the next 12-24 months hold for the global M&A market?

Antagonist forces are shaping the global technology market. We see growing altogether (i) a renewed interest of corporations for technology innovations, (ii) a levelling of industrial capacities between continents, (iii) a global awareness of not-to-miss massive game-changer disruptions on their reach to maturity in a variety of application domains including but not limited to automotive, robotics, avionics or healthcare, (iv) the adoption by entrepreneurs and CEOs of worldwide reach as a new normal.  We also see necessary geopolitics considerations creating a growing level of uncertainties with high potential for delaying the trend toward a global reach.

This push-pull situation makes it extremely difficult to predict what the future might hold, but in the short term, we don’t see any possible inflexion of the growing M&A trend in the technology sector for a variety of reasons.

 

What are some of the current projects that Agave Partners is working on? What lies on the horizon for the firm in 2018?

Agave Partners is working for entrepreneurs and CEOs having a worldwide development strategy. As long as 2018 is concerned, we are primarily working at increasing our capacities to respond to a fast-growing deal flow of high quality companies which see China as their next frontier.

We also have the ambition to become an investor in our most promising clients. For this purpose, we recently signed an agreement with China Electronic Corporation Corporate Venture and their HDSC branch to launch a multi-corporate fund involving European and American electronic corporations as well. Agave Partners Funds is a work in progress with expectation to be launched in the spring of 2018.

 

Contact details:

Address: 4 Embarcadero Center, Suite 4000

San Francisco, CA 94111

Email: info@agaveph.com

Website: www.agaveph.com

 

 

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