New research has revealed that people are increasingly less willing to follow the money to big economic and urban centers and are instead choosing to live, work and invest in places that give them better quality of life - and in turn the money is following them. Here Enshalla Anderson, Chief Strategy Officer at FutureBrand North America, provides her thoughts on the changing economic landscape.
This recalibration of global economies and workforces has come to light in our latest Country Brand Index, which re-orders the World Bank’s top ranking 75 countries (in terms of GDP) by how well they’re perceived against an alternative set of factors, such as value system, business potential, environmental friendliness, culture and tourism.
In the index, ‘quality of life’ was the attribute that averaged the highest in the top 10 countries, and averaged lowest in the bottom 10. In line with this are the findings that people are placing increasing importance on tolerance and environmental factors in the choices that they make about where they work, live, and visit. This is set to radically change how countries and companies organize themselves to attract talent, tourism and investment.
In the meantime, the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution, defined by the arrival of substantial technological change, has transformed our day-to-day reality. Individuals now have more freedom to choose where they live and how they work, and they’re exercising that choice. The arrival of 5G marks a tipping point in all of this this and as telco companies roll out 5G services, we’re likely to see a spreading out of the intellectual capital across the country, instead of being isolated to the key economic hubs.
Meanwhile, we’ve observed businesses with aspirations for global growth actively avoid expanding in the expected international locations and instead set-up in relatively obscure or peripheral locations. They’re looking ahead and taking advantage of this diversifying workforce – tapping new talent, creating new opportunities for people who don’t want to live in the big cities and desire to work remotely, and benefitting from favorable tax rates and perks from regional governments along the way.
The groundswell of environmentalism is also fuelling this shifting balance of power. People are finally beginning to look beyond their household and increasingly making more personal choices of scale and import based on environmental impact and concern. This often means prioritizing ways of living and working that are less harmful to the environment, and in turn better for people’s physical and emotional wellbeing. It can also mean choosing an employer because of their stance on sustainability. By necessity, big corporates, and in turn governments, are having to prioritize facilitating this shift if they want to attract and retain the best talent.
Most recently, New Zealand (ranked no.11 in the index) has been one of the major examples of the big rebalance in power that’s taking place. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s national budget balances goals that encourage the well-being of citizens (such as tackling mental health, child poverty, inequality and the environment) with traditional measures such as productivity and economic growth. Her rapid response to gun control following the Christchurch attack also asserted a genuine and urgent focus on safety and wellbeing that has set a new precedent and benchmark for other governments around the world.
There’s a growing opportunity for countries like New Zealand, and also smaller nations and cities, to compete with bigger counterparts who have more economic might than them on attributes like quality of life, tolerance and environmental concerts to attract greater tourism, trade and investment. It also serves as a warning sign for countries such as China, US and UK, who’ve scored lower in some or all of these crucial measurements, that if they don’t follow suit they’ll have to rely on doubling-down on economic might and power, which citizens, tourists and investors alike are growing increasingly less attracted to as a sole measure of country strength.
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The UK has climbed back into the top 10 most attractive countries for renewable energy investment but the outlook for the industry remains cloudy amid a lingering lack of clarity around targets and subsidies.
In the latest RECAI, the UK has arrested a slide that had seen it fall from 4th place in 2013 down to an all-time low of 14th in October 2016.
The RECAI says that the UK investment environment is more settled than recent years, which were beset by subsidy cuts, but the future post-Brexit remains uncertain. While the UK is behind schedule to meet its 2020 EU renewables target, coal-fired power has declined significantly and even reached zero for a day on 21st April.
Ben Warren, EY’s Head of Energy Corporate Finance, says: “The UK’s reappearance in the RECAI top 10 is the result of other countries falling away – notably Brazil which cancelled a wind and solar auction in December - rather than any particularly encouraging resurgence.
“The UK continues to underwhelm investors who are waiting to see if future UK policy will support and encourage the renewable energy industry towards a subsidy-free environment, where consumers can benefit from the UK’s excellent natural resources for renewable energy.
“Investors are still waiting for clarity around the post-Brexit landscape. Question marks linger around renewable energy targets, subsidies and connections with mainland power markets. Unfortunately, the likelihood of getting complete answers to those questions before the UK exits the EU are slim.”
In April the UK kicked off the second round of renewable energy auctions for Contracts for Difference (CfD) subsidies. The Government plans to allocate £730m of annual funding over three rounds, including £290m in the current round.
Warren adds: “The CfD funding allocation is relatively modest and there is continued uncertainty around the outcome of the mechanism. In the absence of a buoyant CfD regime it’s difficult to see how the UK can force its way back among the front runners for renewable energy investment.”
Emerging offshore wind sector offers hope for future
This round of CfD auctions is open to “less established” technologies such as offshore wind, wave, tidal stream, geothermal and biomass with combined heat and power. Falling costs and advances in technology in the offshore wind industry now represent the UK’s best hopes for future investment, according to the RECAI.
Warren says: “The offshore wind sector is showing signs of creating a sustainable industry and driving down costs to provide more value for money for UK plc. The technology is becoming increasingly competitive and we are likely to see offshore wind emerge as the clear winner from this round of auctions.”
US drops to third place
The RECAI also saw China and India surpass the US, which fell to third in the index following a marked shift in US policy under the new administration.
The report identifies the US Government’s executive orders to rollback many of the past administration’s climate change policies, revive the US coal industry and review the US Clean Power Plan as key downward pressures on renewable investment attractiveness.
Warren says: “Movements in the index illustrate the influence of policy on renewable energy investment and development – both productive and detrimental. Supportive policy and a long-term vision are critical to achieving a clean energy future.”
In China, the National Energy Administration (NEA) announced in January 2017 that it will spend US$363b developing renewable power capacity by 2020. This investment will see renewables account for half of all new generating capacity and create 13 million jobs, according to the NEA plan.
India continued its upward trend in the index to second position with the Government’s program to build 175GW in renewable energy generation by 2022 and to have renewable energy account for 40% of installed capacity by 2040. The country has added more than 10GW of solar capacity in the last three years – starting from a low base of 2.6GW in 2014.
Warren says: “The renewable energy industry is beginning to break free of the shackles that have stalled progress in the past. More refined technology, lower costs and advances in battery storage are enabling more widespread investment and adoption of clean energy.”
Economically viable renewable energy alternatives coupled with security of supply concerns are encouraging more countries to support a clean energy future. Kazakhstan (37), Panama (38) and the Dominican Republic (39) have all entered the index for the first time.
For the complete top 40 ranking and insight on battery storage, offshore wind and rooftop solar developments, visit ey.com/recai.
(Source: EY)
Global M&A value in the power and renewables sector has reached the highest level seen in the current decade – up 70% year-on-year - and any further upward movement would begin to move sector deal value back towards the heady levels last seen before the credit crunch, according to PwC and Strategy’s latest annual Power and Renewables Deals report.
The report states there is plenty of potential in the global power and renewables M&A pipeline but the latest surge may not be indicative of the long-term trend. A more globally-balanced spread of deals is expected in 2015 with fewer of the US mega-deals that buoyed 2014 totals. But the flow of divestment- and privatisation-driven deals looks strong and so there are plenty of reasons to think any dip in US deal value will be taken up, in part at least, by activity elsewhere.
The report found total worldwide power and renewables deal value rose from $143.3 billion (€126 billion) in 2013 to $243.1 billion (€215 billion) in 2014. It’s the first time the total has broken out of the $100-200 billion (€88-176 billion) range established since the pre-credit crisis year of 2007.
A series of big but one-off restructuring deals in the US gas sector, involving Kinder Morgan and Williams, contributed $92.2 billion (€81.4 billion) to the worldwide M&A total.
