When it comes to financial investment, whether it's in supply chains or your employees, business decisions are an everyday chore. If you add Brexit, hurricanes and fluctuating stocks to the mix, planning for uncertainty can become tedious. Here Lena Shishkina, head of finance, EMEA and APJ at Workday, provides Finance Monthly with some insight into planning for uncertainty.

The level of uncertainty that businesses have to deal with today due to various political, social and economic forces is almost unprecedented. From fluctuating currencies and political leadership to other disruptive events such as Brexit, there are plenty of reasons for a degree of global anxiety. The reality is that the effects of these things are still unknown. Business leaders are in a state of flux, questioning how this instability will affect trading, regulation, policies, and markets, for instance.

This level of uncertainty is impacting the finance world most. Now more than ever striking a balance between executing the day-to-day and future planning is critical. Unfortunately, not everyone has this mastered just yet. Despite the advent of tools such as big data and predictive analytics, recent figures show that 50 percent of businesses cannot create revenue forecasts past the next six months.

When uncertainty strikes, the c-suite tends to revert to requesting more frequent forecasts and adopting a ‘what about now’ mindset. While this tends to be a knee-jerk reaction, finance planning is only effective if it is based on relevant, real-time data.

Expecting the unexpected

It’s probably from personal experience that most financial professionals know that an annual budget can be rendered useless in the space of a few days. This is due to the unexpected nature of market volatility and political changes for instance that can shape the future of companies.

This is why continuous planning is being widely adopted by organisations, as it allows them to have the ability to re-run forecast predictions based on these kinds of changes. And it works: businesses that have already adopted this methodology claim to be almost twice as likely as their peers who haven’t accurately forecast earnings between plus or minus 5 percent.

Another benefit is that this kind of approach can create and develop the authority of the finance department. In fact, the same study found that respondents were three times more likely to report increased stakeholder confidence, and finance leaders were four times more likely to be able to respond more quickly to market disruption.

Despite the clear advantages of this methodology, why do many so companies still choose not to go down this path? A lot of businesses continue to rework forecasting on outdated budgets, which breeds inaccuracies and further trepidation. Financial professionals need to rethink their forecasts and look beyond financial data to ensure their projections are robust, accurate and of the highest quality.

Continuous planning and the importance of non-financial data

Non-financial data has traditionally been left out of forecasting largely because it is not as quantifiable or predictable, but executives can no longer get away with that thinking. A recent report found that executives who make better use of non-financial data are more than twice as likely to be able to forecast beyond a 12-month horizon.

Take workforce costs, for example. This is typically an organisation’s greatest expenditure and relies on much more than just financial data for an accurate forecast. That includes everything from anticipated salary to recruitment plans as it paints a more comprehensive view that teams can then use for an accurate look at the future.

A robust data set is one thing. But being able to adjust forecasts in real-time as changes arise at the last minute is just as vital. This is where continuous planning can be truly valuable as it adds context from across the organisation, helping to involve more stakeholders and providing deeper visibility into plans and real-time revisions. A rolling model means the business is in a much better position to react quickly to external factors and give the organisation the visibility they need when these changes arise.

Innovation is key

In theory, continuous planning is a saviour for financial services professionals. However, the reality is most organisations do not have the infrastructure or technology in place to support it in practice. Embracing new technology is the only way organisations will be able to seamlessly bring together rolling forecasts and non-financial data.

The fragmented way finance teams currently work is stifling operational agility. All too often, they are using a mixture of legacy tools from a variety of vendors, which makes it difficult to integrate data sets and make educated decisions. Organisations can no longer afford to base their decisions on luck; they have to start rethinking their technology and the foundation it’s built on. It is the only way to achieve real transformational change. A visionary CFO and a highly engaged finance team will see that and be well placed to usher in this new era.

Determining the future

The only constant in this world is change. And as this time of uncertainty shows no signs of slowing, continuous planning is the only antidote. The combination of rolling forecasts alongside both non-financial and financial data is a significant step in effectively predicting future business outcomes. As a finance professional, you’ll no longer feel like you’re being asked to gaze into your crystal ball, you’ll finally have the answers.

Here Kevin Wilbur, Senior Vice President of AP Automation at Tungsten discusses with Finance Monthly the practicalities of implementing new technologies in supply chains.

Trust in business is more vital than ever today. At a very basic level, it underpins what is required to agree employment contracts, retain customers and grow a business. However, when it comes to monetary transactions for the exchange of goods and services, trust is even more crucial.

Unfortunately, even when payment terms have been set and assets exchanged, trust can often be undermined. A delayed payment from a buyer is something many suppliers will have experienced, resulting in unnecessary stress and a loss of confidence in the trading relationship. Equally, supplier challenges, where data security is compromised or orders are not fulfilled, can cause headaches for buyers.

Certain sectors face greater supplier risk than others, making it even more important to ensure they have a robust supply chain. Finance businesses in particular hold a vast amount of sensitive data, so the ramifications of poor supplier service can be significant.

Widespread supply chain failures

Worryingly, our research shows that 84% of businesses have suffered from supply chain failures such as these. The biggest supplier risks were found to be security (ensuring data security and privacy standards) and information risk (accuracy, timeliness, and security of information exchanged with suppliers).

These risks or failures can have a huge financial impact, with 30% of firms reporting a loss in revenue or business partners. In addition, 22% of buyers said they faced higher insurance premiums, damaged reputation, a loss of customer trust, and/or significant legal and regulatory fines as a consequence of supply chain failures.

Many of these breakdowns in the supply chain arise from poor supplier management processes. Regrettably suppliers are often managed on an ad hoc basis with no consistency and very little attempt made to track and monitor spend. In many supply chains the sheer volume of suppliers involved means that it can be hard to stay on top of each relationship, and with the added pressures of cyber fraud, siloed customer data, insufficient cash for investment, and legacy technology systems, there are often layers of overlapping bureaucracy and confusion.

Managing and monitoring

To manage suppliers effectively and efficiently, supplier-related processes should be measured. From there buyers are able to optimise processes, which in turn enables automation. However, only 23% of buyers in our study achieved this level of maturity, and just 12% had optimised processes.

Buyers who describe themselves as having good supplier relationships have taken the time to map supplier activity, to establish a clear onboarding process, and to define a strategy that not only makes supplier management a priority, but also establishes responsibility between themselves and the suppliers they work with. Optimised firms ensure compliance with regulations and corporate social responsibility (CSR) standards by constantly monitoring their suppliers.

Low process maturity, revealed in more than a third of businesses (35%), can lead to poor sourcing decisions, because buyers lack high-quality, up-to-date information about suppliers’ past performance when awarding new contracts.

Technology that transforms

The research, which was conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of Tungsten Network, concludes that for businesses to thrive, they need to be properly managed using modern tools and processes that establish accountability, reduce uncertainty, and foster trust. This in turn enables the exploration of mutual growth opportunities for both buyers and suppliers.

Increasingly sophisticated technology exists that can genuinely strengthen supply chain relationships. For example, through a secure e-invoicing platform such as Tungsten Network, buyers and suppliers can have clear visibility on whether an invoice has been received and approved, and when payment is due. This means businesses have a single source of truth for invoice status information, which is monitored in real time. It can also help remove manual processes around invoice validation and compliance. This is a good example of where technology is enabling growth across the board, through developing trust in business relationships.

Often networks such as this provide value-added services that can serve as a source of competitive advantage. For example, through analysis of the real-time data generated from end-to-end e-invoicing capabilities, decision makers can more effectively predict demand and manage disruptions. Buyers and suppliers of all sizes can also find each other more easily and can build capabilities that benefit them both. They can also experiment with managing cash in new ways, such as by negotiating more flexible payment options like dynamic discounting and invoice financing.

The winners in the digital age will be the companies that best use technology to win, serve, and retain customers, and to enhance relationships throughout the supply chain. Technology can enable buyers and suppliers to more effectively use their data and manage their interactions, removing friction from the supply chain and strengthening trust, to the mutual benefit of all.

Below Finance Monthly hears from Peter Snelling, principal systems engineer at leader in analytics, SAS, who has various ideas on border management that the UK and EU should look to approach.

This, and the more outward looking post-Brexit era we're facing, are just two reasons why I believe a different approach to border management, and indeed many of the activities of the Home Office and Customs, would transform efficiency. With the following capabilities in place, we’ll create a future where the departments can rate and prioritise risks in real-time, as they change, and take pre-emptive action, rather than reactive. As an example, let's apply the following ideas to the challenges of smuggling and trafficking.

The answer’s in the data

One of the major improvements the border agencies can make is to apply advanced, predictive analytics and deploy real-time risk-scoring models. Building them on historical data allows strategists and front-line operatives to apply the models’ learnings to enhance their own experience and strategies.

The alerts raised by these models can then be visualised as networks, timelines and maps – and enhanced with contextual information and intelligence.  Applied in this way resources can be better managed and frontline staff can interdict high risk goods or people promptly.  As importantly, low-risk goods and people can be processed far more swiftly.  To find the needle it's sometimes easiest to reduce the size of the haystack.

Support that capability with what-if scenario testing, and the border agencies within Home Office and HMRC – and indeed other central government organisations – will be able to model different decisions and predict their outcomes against their cost and relative merit.

A winning combination: efficiency, accuracy, affordability

However, with many millions of people and shipments moving in and out of the UK every year, some people will wonder how quickly all this analysis can happen. The answer: In a matter of minutes. Certainly, with SAS. That’s because our analytics engine is made for the big data age and can screen billions of rows of data per second.

If your next question is, "Can the analysis be thorough at speed?" the answer is a resounding yes. Take global banking giant HSBC as an example. You’ll see that SAS anti-fraud analytics screens millions of debit and credit card transactions around the world, every day. Consider the fallout you may have experienced from just one personal experience of card fraud, and you’ll know what an incredibly value-generating capability this is - both on a human level and a financial one.

For the Home Office and Customs to achieve their efficiency targets and improve operational effectiveness, advanced analytics and visualization solutions have become essential.

In June the UK’s inflation rate dropped unexpectedly to 2.6%, down from 2.9% in May. This comes as a surprise given the socio-political situation globally and in the UK, giving spout to the alarming degree of uncertainty businesses and the public are facing.

According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), this was the first fall in inflation since October 2016, and was mostly due to lower petrol and diesel prices. Economists are now reportedly saying that this could cause the Bank of England to raise interest rates.

Below Finance Monthly has sought out several experts who could give their thoughts on the inflation fall, and what’s to be in months to come.

Markus Kuger, Senior Economist, Dun & Bradstreet:

The unexpected fall in the UK’s inflation rate is another sign of the economic uncertainty the country faces in the current political climate. Our analysis shows that the level of risk is ‘deteriorating’, with Brexit negotiations creating considerable unpredictability for businesses operating in and with the UK. This has only been intensified by the results of the general election in June, as the government’s narrow parliamentary majority is further complicating the process of leaving the EU.

Alongside the backdrop of an already slowing economy (the UK posted the lowest real GDP growth of all 28 EU economies in Q1 2017), a poll of business leaders after the election indicated a notable drop in business confidence. The best advice for businesses is to closely monitor the economic climate and the progress of EU negotiations, and use the latest data and analytics to assess risk and identify potential opportunities. As Brexit negotiations progress organisations should get a clearer picture of the future, but until then careful management of relationships with suppliers, customers, prospects and partners will be key to navigating through these uncertain times.

Kate Smith, Head of Pensions, Aegon:

Rapidly rising prices are almost always bad news for consumers, particularly pensioners on a fixed income, who are clearly having to go through a bit of belt tightening at the moment. The problem is amplified by both low wages and low interest rates, which give people little opportunity to grow their savings to meet the growing cost burden. There are lots of options available for people that want to diversify their investments outside of rock bottom savings account, but it’s important to plan ahead, and if dealing with significant amounts, consider seeking the input from a financial adviser.

Many of the younger generation seem to be prioritising current lifestyle over long term savings ambitions, and there’s nothing wrong with that in principle, but as inflation begins to bite it’s important they don’t start to see saving as an unaffordable luxury, and even consider sacrificing their workplace pension. By far the most effective means of saving is to do so early, and often, and there’s a risk that reducing regular contributions becomes a habit that’s hard to reverse.

Ranko Berich, Head of Market Analysis, Monex Europe:

Real wages remain in contraction and inflation is above target, but not above the BoE’s expectations. June’s inflation slowdown significantly reduces the chances of a near term rate hike as it vindicates the BoE’s last Inflation Report, and provides further fodder for the intensifying debate in the MPC about “looking through” the current inflationary shock.

The BoE’s last Inflation Report forecast inflation to peak around 3%, and this view remains intact after June’s CPI figures, although a marginal overshoot this year remains plausible. Although fuel prices were the main contributor to the slowdown, as a whole the release does not look immediately attributable to the sort of “transient factors” apparent in US inflation data, as several major basket categories made substantial negative contributions. Inflation in the UK is above target, but there’s nothing in June’s data to suggest an inflationary spiral of the sort that would entail an immediate rethink of monetary policy.

Sterling was looking rather frothy before the release, particularly against the greenback, and has been knocked down a notch as a result, as today’s release does reduce the likelihood of a hike in the immediate future. Thursday’s Retail Sales release will be crucial, unless consumer spending begins to recover from the shock seen in May it’s difficult to see how any of the centrist MPC members will be able to agree that policy normalisation is appropriate at any stage soon.

Edward Smythe, Economist, Positive Money:

While inflation may have fallen slightly in June due to lower fuel prices, it is likely that it will tick up back to 3% over the coming quarters. What should concern policymakers and businesses is that inflation is continuing to rise much faster than wages, which have only slightly improved in the decade since the financial crisis, putting pressure on households and forcing many on low incomes to rely on borrowing for everyday expenditure.

The Central Bank is in an increasingly difficult position. It may feel compelled to take action to meet the 2% inflation target, but raising interest rates could be catastrophic for an economy only growing weakly, and so reliant on personal borrowing and rising asset prices. This predicament highlights the need for policymakers to think seriously about new approaches to monetary policy which, unlike the current diet of quantitative easing and low interest rates, can help boost wages and reduce private debt.

Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer, Moneyfarm:

With inflation at its highest level in nearly four years, you might expect that to increase the potential of an interest rate rise in the UK. But with wage inflation already lagging behind the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), this isn’t necessarily a move that a lot of Brits could stomach. It’s now looking extremely unlikely that the Bank of England will increase interest rates in August.

Even if interest rates did rise, there is no way this could reach the levels that British savers are so desperate for, meaning those with excess savings sat in cash accounts should really start thinking about investing now to protect the value of their money over time. This is especially true for those saving for long-term goals such as retirement or helping their children through higher education. Millions of British savers could be in for a nasty surprise later in life if they find they can’t buy as much as they thought with their savings.

David Morrison, Senior Market Strategist, Spread Co.:

Sterling sold off sharply last week following the latest update on UK inflation. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose 2.6% when compared to the same period last year, and this was down sharply from +2.9% in May. Most of the decline could be blamed on a fall in oil prices and the British pound. However, inflation measures which exclude energy were also weaker, suggesting other factors were at play as well.

UK inflation has soared since the end of 2015 when year-on-year CPI was actually negative. Yet despite the pull-back last month it is still well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. Nevertheless, the consensus opinion seems to be that the pressure is now off the Bank to raise rates at next month’s key meeting. This is when the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivers its quarterly inflation report and is therefore a perfect opportunity to announce a change in monetary policy.

Before last week’s drop in inflation, many analysts expected a rate rise next month. For a start, there were a number of commentators who considered last year’s rate cut in the aftermath of the Brexit vote particularly ill-advised. Reversing it twelve months later would seem a sensible route to take.

This opinion gained traction after the MPC vote unexpectedly shifted from 7-1 against a rate cut to 3-5 in favour at their last meeting back in June. However, Governor Mark Carney is notoriously dovish, so he now has additional ammunition to urge caution from his colleagues next month. But the worry for Mr Carney and his dovish colleagues is that it’s dangerous to look at a single data point and extrapolate from it a change in trend.

If last weeks’ fall in inflation turns out to be a blip rather than the start of a steady decline, then it won’t take long for the Bank’s critics to accuse it of taking its eye off the ball.

Kerim Derhalli, CEO of invstr:

The UK has recently experienced a surge in inflationary pressure with, unsurprisingly, Brexit as the main culprit. As a nation, we love to consume foreign goods and the devaluation of the pound following last year’s referendum result made all of our imports more expensive. It also caused mayhem for economists and legislators looking to predict what is to come.

However, as the impact of this one-off devaluation event recedes, the inflation rate has started to level out and come down.

There are other economic factors too that are likely to put downward pressure on inflation. Wage growth has been lower than the overall level of inflation which has squeezed living standards forcing people to borrow more or spend less. Already low savings levels and high consumer debt suggest little capacity among Joe Public for higher prices. The uncertainty around the investment climate caused by Brexit has also impacted the housing market keeping both home prices and rents subdued. Outside of the UK, international energy prices continue to remain relatively low too helping to keep inflation in check.

What could change? One factor to consider is the current domestic political debate about higher domestic wage settlements in the public sector, which could help to drive up prices. Plus, as we learn more about the UK’s international standing in the world going forward, there are sure to be factors that economists haven’t even begun to consider that will throw their prediction models into disarray. Forecasting either growth or inflation rates is unlikely to get any easier anytime soon.

Jamie Smith-Thompson, Managing Director, Portafina:

Inflation is especially going to hit those pensioners with an annuity. Although there is an option to inflation proof an annuity when it is first taken out, most people decide not to factor it in because the benefit leads to such a reduction in income in initial retirement. Consequently, the majority of pensioners with an annuity will be on a a fixed income. The knock-on effect is as inflation increases, their purchasing power reduces. The longer you are in retirement the less money you will tend to have in real terms and sadly it is in later retirement when that money is needed for care and support. This is all a powerful reason why it is important that the triple lock remains on the state pension to provide some degree of protection.

One of the key questions people ask themselves as they consider their retirement is “How am I going to take the income?” and inflation and death benefits should be a primary factor to bear in mind when looking at what’s out there. The two primary options are drawdown or annuitys. If you want to factor in inflation-proofing into your annuity you could reduce your initial pension income by around 30%. Apart from the huge reduction itself, it is an unattractive proposition because most people are more likely to need greater income in the initial part of retirement, as this is when they are more active. For this reason, annuities are not as popular as they once were. Drawdown on the other hand takes inflation into account by default. Drawdown remains invested so if inflation goes up, the markets usually go up as well. It is far more flexible and it allows the owner much more control in terms of the state of the economy.

Adrian Slack, Senior Trader, Learn to Trade:

Since the UK's vote to leave the EU last year, the value of the pound has continued to depreciate. This stimulated an increase in the cost of imported goods and raw materials prompting an increase in inflation.

As the value of sterling continues to fall, households should expect to feel the pinch of higher costs on everyday imported goods in their baskets and on European holidays. Businesses should also expect to incur higher costs for doing business in Europe – they need to plan carefully when buying goods from overseas to lessen the blow on a potential fall in business profits. Exporters will continue to benefit as sterling’s fall makes UK goods more competitive overseas.

Moving forward, we expect inflation rates to creep back up steadily due to sterling’s continued weakness due to political risks resulting in higher import costs and fundamentally increases in prices to purchase. Whether this leads to a rise in interest rates is still to be confirmed. There’s an entire generation on low mortgage rates and so any increase in interest rates will have a negative effect on the housing market. We are in a bit of a catch 22 at the moment. With Brexit negotiations underway, it’s difficult to say how high inflation rates are likely to go.

Ana Boata, Economist for Europe, Euler Hermes:

June’s lower-than-expected inflation rate is mainly due to base effects linked to the summer discounting of some goods’ prices and the appreciation of the Sterling in April and May. These effects should already fade away in July and we expect the inflation rate to approach but remain below 3.0% year-on-year this autumn.

Looking towards 2018, the growing economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit will continue to hamper sterling. Increasing import costs will continue to put upward pressure on inflation, which will hit 2.7% on average in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018. This will act as a drag on consumer confidence and trigger a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth to 1.9% (from 2.8% in 2016) and 1.2% respectively.

GDP growth is expected to slow down to 1.4% in 2017 and 1.0% in 2018 which, coupled with the weakness of Sterling and the rise in inflation, would argue for a smooth rate hike in H2. This should support households’ real purchasing power and help avoid a sharp adjustment of the residential housing market.

From 2019, the level of inflation will be heavily influenced by the UK’s trading relationship with Europe. We forecast that a transition deal – where the Single Market conditions would still be kept for defined period of time – is the most likely outcome. This should be seen as a good news and help Sterling stabilise somewhat. Inflation should moderate slightly to 2.4% in 2019 and 2.3% in 2020. Without a transition deal, inflation would likely reach a high level of 3.5% in both of those years.

High levels of competition, increasing discounter market share and an online shopping frequency more than twice the European average have already made the UK retail sector of the most challenging in the world. In addition, growing financial stress, highlighted by a 10pp increase in net gearing ratios last year with average profits (EBIT) slipping by 1.4pp to 5.6%, is expected to place greater pressure on cash flow and payment terms throughout the retail supply chain.

Salvador Amico, Partner and head of the Brexit team, Menzies LLP:

The fall in the rate of inflation has come as a surprise but businesses, consumers and the Bank of England alike are unlikely to be celebrating too much at this stage.

Future economic and market-driven volatility is still expected. Inflation rates could creep back up and the pound will remain volatile, hindering long-term investment plans. To avoid losing out, businesses should take steps to minimise their exposure to such volatility by re-assessing their supply contracts, distribution networks and hedging against currency fluctuations.

To date, there has been a reluctance from businesses to pass on extra costs to the consumer in the form of price rises, but this could become harder to avoid in future. In the meantime, businesses will remain focused on removing cost where it is possible to do so by renegotiating contracts and relocating supply chains closer to home.

Inflation rate fluctuations are usually an indicator that change is on the horizon and speculation over whether the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates in the coming months will also be causing concern. However, with consumers being squeezed on a number of levels and wage inflation continuing to lag, it would be surprising if interest rates rose before the end of the year. With the economy hugely dependent on consumer spending, taking disposable income out of their hands would be counterproductive.

One of the key challenges facing businesses at the moment is exchange rate volatility. By now, the impact of recent falls in the value of the pound have worked their way through the system and this could mean that the economy is starting to stabilise.

This has been a year of curveballs and, as we have seen, it can take just one shock change to unsettle the entire business community. For the time being, however, inflation rates appear to be moving in the right direction and we should be grateful for that, even if we know it is unlikely to last.”

We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!

According to new research released this week by Dreyfus, a pioneer in US investing, half of individual investors (49%) have indicated they have yet to take any action to reevaluate their investment approach in light of the possibility of a shifting investment landscape, as we head into the eighth year of the economic recovery.

"As long-term risk/return expectations have shifted with an increase in inflation, the rise of US nationalism and record-low volatility, investors would be well-served to reevaluate their portfolios in light of changed circumstances to determine if they will continue to meet their investment objectives," said Mark Santero, Chief Executive Officer, The Dreyfus Corporation, a BNY Mellon company.

The "Helping Meet Investor Challenges Study" surveyed 1,250 investors with $50,000 or more in investable assets on their approach to investing. This is the first release of survey data that explores all elements of the group's investing lives, including engagement with investment professionals, portfolio allocations and appetite for risk. The study also surveyed 200 independent and institutionally-based advisors regarding the investing relationship between advisors and clients.

Older Investors Ignoring Past Market Precedents in Adjusting Portfolios

Older investors have had an opportunity to weather a variety of stock market highs, such as the bull markets from 1987-2000 and 2009 to the present, and lows, such as the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s, the stock market crash in 1987 and most recently the financial crisis of 2008. Yet, even with this past knowledge in the rearview mirror, the survey reveals:

• Sixty-one percent of investors aged 55+ indicated they have not or will not reevaluate their investment approach in today's existing investing environment.

In comparison, younger investors who experienced the 2008 market meltdown and who began their savings efforts in the earlier part of their careers demonstrated a forward-thinking approach to reevaluating their portfolios. This generation of investors between the ages of 21 and 34 indicated the following:

• Sixty-five percent had already evaluated their investment approach, compared to just 51% of those aged 35-54 and 39% of those aged 55+.
• A greater percentage of younger investors between 21-34 (63%) also indicated they had worked with an advisor in reevaluating their investments, while only a third (38%) of those 55+ had evaluated their investments with an advisor.

"Our survey revealed that younger investors have demonstrated in greater numbers a more proactive approach to reassessing their portfolios and seeking out their advisors for counsel, some of whom might lack the historical market experience and accumulated wealth of older investors," said Mark Santero.

Mass Affluent Investors Slow to Take Action on Their Portfolios

The survey also looked at the investment actions taken by mass affluent investors, those who had investable income between $250k and $2.5 million. The survey found nearly half of this audience had work to do in reviewing their portfolios and how more than a third had decided to do nothing with their portfolios:

• Forty-three percent of the total mass affluent investor audience had not reevaluated their investment approach in this new investment environment.
• Thirty-nine percent of mass affluent investors working with an advisor had not reevaluated their investment approach.

Investors Look to Advisors in Navigating the Way

Despite the last eight years of a US bull market, uncertainty is very much a reality in U.S. and global markets.

Yet a majority of investors remained on the sidelines, the survey found:

• Six in ten investors (60%) without a financial advisor are most likely to put off their plans to address today's market challenges, with only one-quarter (24%) saying that they plan to address challenges they face at some point in 2017.
• Seventeen percent said they don't have any plans to reevaluate their investment approach.

Santero added, "We believe investors who don't work with a professional advisor could greatly benefit from the insights an advisor can provide in tailoring a goals-based approach for their individual circumstances against today's investing environment of uneven economic growth. Options might include diversifying their US exposure with global fixed income and equities or considering dividend or alternative investing strategies."

Those individual investors who worked with an advisor had a greater likelihood of adjusting their portfolios. The findings revealed that:

• Almost three-quarters (65%) indicated they had reevaluated their investment approach, compared to two in five (40%) who had not worked with an advisor.
• Nearly three-quarters (73%) of advisors' clients changed their approach as a result of advice.

(Source: Dreyfus)

Global middle market organizations, companies with annual revenues of USD 1 million -USD 3 billion, are showing no signs of slowing down in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. Over one-third (34%) of middle market companies plan to grow 6%-10% this year, far outpacing the latest World Bank global GDP growth forecasts of 2.7%, by more than 3%-7%.

The findings released today in the EY Growth Barometer, a first-of-its-kind survey of 2,340 middle market executives across 30 countries, reveal that in spite of geopolitical tensions, including Brexit, increasing populism, the rise of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) and skilled talent shortages, 89% of executives see today's uncertainty as grounds for growth opportunities. What's more, 14% of all companies surveyed have current year growth ambitions of more than 16%.

Annette Kimmitt, EY Global Growth Markets Leader, says: "The global economic backdrop is much stronger than what the prevailing narrative has been telling us. Despite geopolitical risks and uncertainties, businesses being disrupted through new technologies and globalization rewriting the rules of supply and demand, middle market leaders are not only attuned to uncertainty, but are seizing it to grow, disrupt other markets and drive their growth agendas."

Growth ambitions vary across geographies

Despite facing two years of Brexit negotiations, start-ups (companies under five years old) headquartered in the UK are displaying the highest levels of confidence of the countries surveyed. UK start-ups are the most positive on current year growth ambitions with 26% seeking to grow by 11-25% and a further 23% looking at year-on-year growth of more than 26%.

But when looking at the largest markets, there are significant differences between the world's largest economy, the US where slightly more than a third (35%) of all companies plan modest growth increases of under 5%, compared to the world's two tiger economies – China and India – where together 42% of companies are targeting growth rates of 6%-10%. Moreover, a quarter (25%) of companies in tiger economies have current year growth plans of 11%-15%.

Technology and talent top the agenda

Executives identified technology and talent not only as the top two challenges facing the middle market C-suite today, but they are also seen as the tools by which they will overcome challenges and remain agile. Talent (23%) is cited as the top priority ahead of improved operations (21%), cutting red tape (12%) and beneficial agreements (8%) in a ranking of what is critical to meeting current growth ambitions. A staggering 93% of executives see technology as a means of attracting the talent they need. New developments in artificial intelligence (AI) are improving the recruitment and selection process for innovative start-ups to find specialist talent.

To fuel the growth ambitions of their organizations, more than a quarter (27%) of middle market executives plan to increase their permanent headcount and a further 14% plan to increase the number of part-time staff. Reflecting the growing impact of the gig economy on work patterns and a move to a more contingent, skills-based workforce, almost one in five (18%) companies plan to use contractors to help power their high-growth plans and fill specific gaps or needs.

However, under these global results lie significant differences in hiring plans. A majority of US companies (55%) plan to keep current staffing levels flat, compared with 31% of all respondents. These plans are almost reversed among start-ups, 53% of which plan increases in full-time staff. Nearly a quarter (23%) of all start-ups are also the most likely of all organizations to plan to hire more contractors or freelancers.

Kimmitt says: "Middle market leaders are using technology to attract and retain talent, accelerate growth, improve productivity and increase profitability. Uncertainty has become the new normal, and while geopolitical risks and trade barriers are influential factors, middle market companies are moving ahead with hiring plans."

RPA does not spell RIP to talent

While only 6% of middle market organizations are already using robotic process automation (RPA) for some business processes, the dystopian vision of large-scale layoffs is not shared by these business leaders. Fifteen percent of all middle market executive respondents believe that adoption of RPA will result in headcount reductions of less than 10%. This illustrates that middle market leaders are planning on the selective adoption of RPA to bring efficiencies to some routine operations, but as an adjunct to human talent, not a replacement.

Macro risks to growth

Middle market leaders cited increasing competition (20%) as the number one external threat to their growth plans, followed by geopolitical instability (17%) and the cost and availability of credit (12%). These threats were considered far more significant than financial headwinds of rising interest rates (8%), foreign exchange variance (8%) or commodity price volatility (6%). Leaders were twice as likely to cite competition (20%) as a risk than slow global growth (10%).

High-growth entrepreneurs are even more optimistic

As part of the EY Growth Barometer, the survey also measured 220 alumni of EY's widely-acclaimed Entrepreneur Of The Year program. Active for more than 30 years, the network has programs in more than 60 countries and 145 cities worldwide supporting high-growth entrepreneurs.

High-growth entrepreneurs are planning significantly higher growth rates than overall middle market leaders, with one in five planning to grow by 6%-10%, a further 20% by 11%-15% and yet a further one in five by 16%-25%. Nearly one in four (22%) high-growth entrepreneurs are planning current year growth of more than 26%. Additionally, almost two-thirds (61%) of this group plan increases in full-time staff and 9% plan increases in the use of contingent or gig economy workers.

Kimmitt says: "Middle market companies are the engines for global growth, representing nearly 99% of all enterprise and contributing nearly 45% to global GDP. But high-growth entrepreneurs are not only more ambitious in setting growth targets, but prioritize differently from other mid-market leaders and businesses. High-growth entrepreneurs are not fazed by the kinds of seismic shocks that Brexit and other geopolitical upheavals present. They are developing agile and flexible strategies to work with uncertainty as the new normal."

(Source: EY)

Lack of trust and transparency as a result of ideological and military conflicts are undermining the international supply chains linking the world, according to the Q1 2017 CIPS Risk Index, powered by Dun & Bradstreet. Prolonged conflict is creating supply chain no-go areas, cutting off local businesses and consumers from global markets and potentially causing a scarcity of goods.

Military conflict

The conflict between Ukraine and separatist rebels in the east of the country continued to hinder both physical and digital supply chains this quarter. A power cut in Kiev in December 2016 is now widely believed to have been the result of a cyber-attack, while in March, Ukraine suspended all cargo from entering separatist-held territory. Despite this, Eastern Europe and Central Asia only contributed 7.6% of global supply chain risk this quarter, down from 8.5% in Q4 2016. The change is the result of an update to the trade weightings used in the Index as the fall in commodity prices has reduced the importance of the region's trade flows in global supply chains. Businesses have been busy re-routing supply chains away from the conflict area, while sanctions have discouraged businesses from dealing with Russia. This process has accelerated as a result of persistently low commodity prices which have seen the value of the region's exports fall.

Civil wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen are also disrupting traditional land-based supply chains across the Middle East, curtailing the flow of goods from Jordan and Lebanon through Syria and Iraq, and in North Africa between Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria. The conflicts look likely to continue disrupting supply chains beyond 2017. As with Eastern Europe, international supply chains have largely insulated themselves from the Middle East. The region's trade weighting has been updated following the collapse in oil prices which reduced the value of trade flows from the Middle East, lessening its importance in the global supply chain. The region therefore contributed just 7.9% of global supply chain risk in Q1 2017, down from 9% last quarter.

Ideological conflict

Q1 2017 has also seen an escalation in the ideological conflict between globalisation and economic nationalism, with the British Prime Minister, Theresa May's, visit to the White House in January 2017 symbolic of the shift in emphasis from multilateral to bilateral trade deals. Despite President Donald Trump's decision not to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in April 2017, the future trading relationship between Canada, Mexico and the USA remains uncertain. As a result, North America's contribution to global supply chain risk rose from 8.1% in Q4 2016 to 8.6% in Q1 2017.

In France, Marine Le Pen's advance to the second round of the presidential election raised serious concerns for businesses with supply chains in the region. The failed candidate had promised to close French borders immediately, abandon free-trade deals, tax businesses with foreign employees and leave the European Union. Collectively these measures could have significantly hindered businesses that rely on French suppliers. The election of President Emmanuel Macron should dissipate these fears.

Elsewhere in Europe, the ideal of a borderless Europe looks increasingly secure. Whether Chancellor Angela Merkel, or her opponent Martin Schulz succeeds in Germany's parliamentary elections, the German government looks likely to retain a pro-EU outlook. Although temporary border controls have been extended in Germany and Sweden, they look likely to be abolished by the end of the year, helping to reduce delays at these crucial supply chain interchanges.

In China, meanwhile, exchange controls implemented in November 2016 have prevented foreign businesses from transferring cash outside of the country. The rules prevent overseas acquisitions of more than USD10bn and require banks to keep net cross-border Renminbi transfers balanced. The controls make routine activity such as royalty payments difficult and pose a significant risk to businesses with supply chains in the region.

National disruption

Localised conflicts have affected local supply chains in Q1 2017. In Chile a six week strike ending on 24^th March at La Escondida copper mine reduced global copper capacity by 5%. Terrorism also remains a risk for businesses working with suppliers in Chile. Fires destroying 238,000 hectares of forest are widely thought to have been caused deliberately, while a spate of bombings have continued in the capital, Santiago. Latin America's contribution to global supply chain risk has dropped however, from 7.5% in Q4 2016 to 7.15% in Q1 2017. The reduction is the result of falling commodity prices which have considerably reduced the value of the region's exports to the rest of the world.

The Indian Government's unexpected decision to withdraw 86% of the country's cash as part of a crackdown on the use of counterfeit money has left businesses struggling to pay suppliers and workers. Combined with prolonged congestion at major Indian ports, India has helped to push global supply chain risk upwards. Asia Pacific contributed 37.4% of supply chain risk in Q1 2017, up from 33% at the end of 2016. In the long-term, however, progress continues to be made to create a nationwide Indian customs union which would see local tariffs abolished and encourage investment in supply chain infrastructure across the country.

John Glen, CIPS Economist and Director of the Centre for Customised Executive Development at The Cranfield School of Management, said: "Supply chains are a shared resource between consumers, businesses and governments, with procurement and supply chain managers acting as the guardians. When these links are effective, businesses can benefit from lower prices, consumers from better choice and society from greater knowledge sharing. It is therefore crucial they are protected, made resilient and as effective as possible, particularly when faced with a barrage of challenges."

"Supply chain infrastructure can only function normally and efficiently when there is trust and collaboration between all nationalities and sections of society. Whether through military confrontation in the Middle East or political schism in Britain, supply chain infrastructure is one of the first casualties of conflict and the results can be devastating."

Bodhi Ganguli, Lead Economist, Dun & Bradstreet: "The improvement in the Global Risk Index (GRI) affirms that after a rather torrid start to the year, the global economy is settling down. The growth outlook is brightening, headwinds are diminishing, and forecasts generally point to better outcomes than we had expected a year ago. Yet, underlying this feel-good momentum, the global economy continues to face risks, both systemic and exogenous, that could flare up. From the fanning of protectionist inclinations by the rise of right-wing populism, to a one-off hit to supply chains from North Korean aggression, global supply chains and cross-border business strategies must remain cognisant of these risks, while utilising data and insights to take advantage of the opportunities created by the rising tide of global growth."

(Source: Dun & Bradstreet)

“If there’s one thing that’s certain in business, it’s uncertainty” – Stephen Covey, US author. You’ve probably heard this a few times in your life. Here Ed Thorne, UKI Managing Director at Dun and Bradstreet, talks Finance Monthly through the current situation in the UK, the uncertainty that looms, and the confidence that is being pushed throughout.

We are without doubt a nation sitting in a world in flux. Business confidence is shaky, as recent geopolitical and economic issues have created an uncertain business landscape. For the UK, the vote to leave the European Union has created a volatile UK market; with the pound’s value dropping, inflation is at its highest point since September 2013, and reports that the cost of some imports could rise by eight per cent after the UK finally leaves the EU. But where does this leave businesses?

A recent survey by the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry found that business confidence is actually growing despite increasing cost pressures (including raw materials and oil prices) and the devaluation of the sterling still lingering. It’s also been reported that business confidence among the UK private sector is now at its strongest level since mid-2015, thanks to a strong economic backdrop and improving client demand.

There are businesses that are thriving in the UK despite the uncertainty; in the past few months, the tourism and manufacturing industries are experiencing an all-time high. The Office of National Statistics revealed that tourism to the UK has increased by 13% from November to January year-on-year. The reduced cost of visiting the UK for American and Eurozone tourists, appears to have caused tourism to skyrocket. The same applies for British manufacturing; CIPS’ latest figures from February reported solid growth of output and new orders. These factors suggest that many UK businesses are actually doing well at the moment, despite Brexit.

It might not all be plain sailing, though. UK businesses need to keep one eye on the global currency; as the pound fell precipitously after the Brexit vote and the dollar could very well strengthen. If this does happen, it could affect the fortune of both net importers and exporters – so definitely something to watch closely!

And it’s important to remember that the UK hasn’t fully left the EU yet, and much is yet to be worked through before the June 2018 deadline. Failure to negotiate a good trade deal, or indeed any deal, with the EU could have a significant impact on business confidence. Our Dun & Bradstreet economists have advocated a calm and cautious approach for businesses, recommending continued monitoring of developments rather than responding too quickly. The impact of Brexit on migration, interest rates, house prices and even food prices, could have considerable effects on business confidence in both the short and long term.

Business confidence in the UK is not solely centred on national companies. For decades, the EU has simplified trade regulations to allow labour, capital, goods and services to move freely across borders. Companies across the world that rely on the UK as a base for business in Europe can no longer take these benefits for granted when Brexit is set in motion. This could certainly impact the growth potential for UK businesses and stall opportunity for those companies looking to expand. Global companies operating in the UK and Europe also face greater compliance and regulatory challenges, as uncertainty plays an increasing role in the market.

Stephen Covey’s words about business uncertainty ring louder right now than any time in recent memory. Although risk and uncertainty is an accepted part of our increasingly complex global environment, it doesn’t make it any easier to deal with for the modern business. Against a backdrop of uncertainty, companies doing business with or in the UK can use data and analytics to stay abreast of market trends, and effectively manage relationships with customers, suppliers and partners to minimise risk.  Business confidence in the UK is likely to continue on a rocky road for the foreseeable future and companies need the right tools and information to help them stay ahead and navigate to success.

Commercial real estate industry leaders participating in The Real Estate Roundtable's Q2 2017 Economic Sentiment Index report that market conditions are stable and will maintain slow, but steady growth over the next several months – yet many respondents are also less optimistic about future conditions due to uncertainty in domestic policy and the geopolitical landscape.

"As the Trump Administration and Congress continue to consider ideas for tax reform, infrastructure investment and financial regulatory overhaul, The Roundtable's Q2 Sentiment Index is tempered by anticipation about what consequences the details of any eventual legislation could have on commercial real estate," said Roundtable CEO and President Jeffrey D. DeBoer. "We continue to remain engaged on the policy front to communicate the vital economic role that CRE provides to communities throughout the country and the industry's ability to create jobs."

A recurring concern among respondents to the Q2 Sentiment Index released today is uncertainty about the prospects for domestic policy and how volatile geopolitical situations may influence the economy.

The Roundtable's Q2 2017 Sentiment Index registered at 52 — three points down from the last quarter. [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.] This quarter's Current-Conditions Index of 53 decreased two points from the previous quarter, but rose two points compared to the Q2 2016 score of 51. However, this quarter's Future-Conditions Index of 50 dipped five points from the previous quarter – but is up two points compared to the same time one year ago, when it registered at 48.

The report's Topline Findings include:

• Many participants suggested they view market fundamentals as stable, despite potentially destabilizing factors, and predicted a continued period of slow but steady growth.
• With the new administration in Washington encountering challenges implementing their policies, there is not the same level of economic optimism as was expressed in the Q1 report. However, participants were nearly unanimous in their belief that the current real estate cycle has room left to run.
• In certain markets, asset pricing is at or near equilibrium. Retail stands out as the most challenging property type to price, followed by multifamily, which is seen to be near peak pricing.
• Capital is plentiful for the best deals. Equity and debt sources are employing greater levels of discipline for riskier investments. In what many feel is a healthy market environment, riskier deals are more expensive and may require multiple sources of capital.

Although 31% of survey participants report Q2 asset prices today are "somewhat higher" compared to this time last year, only 15% of respondents said they expect values to be somewhat higher one year from now — reflecting the view that the current market cycle is reaching a state of equilibrium. Additionally, 48% of Q2 survey respondents said they expect asset values in one year to be "about the same" as today. Many also noted a healthy availability of capital, predicting that inflows of private capital one year from now will be similar to today's healthy conditions in the equity and debt markets, dependent on the quality of the property.

(Source: Real Estate Roundtable)

Finance leaders are taking swift steps to invest and adapt to help their businesses navigate the unpredictable path ahead, according to new insights from some of the UK’s leading CFOs.

The 2017 Global Business and Spending Outlook by American Express and Institutional Investor surveyed 100 senior finance executives in the UK, more than half of whom work for companies with more than $1 billion in annual revenue. It gives an important glimpse into the thoughts and strategies of the UK’s most influential CFOs as the asks, and influence, of the CFO has never been greater.

There is understandable caution in the market, given geopolitical events unfolding around the world. However, rather than tightening the purse strings, almost all the finance chiefs surveyed (99%) say their company’s spending and investment will increase worldwide during the next year.

And CFOs are playing a central strategic role when it comes to mitigating the impact of ever-changing market conditions, indicating the evolution of the CFO into the Chief Flexibility Officer, with more responsibility but also more influence across the business than ever before. In fact, more than eight in ten (81%) say that the most senior financial officer wields more influence over strategic decision making than the CEO in their business.

Boosting competitive advantage seems to be the main strategy for CFOs tackling the uncertain economic climate. Ensuring the organisation remains competitive is cited as the biggest business priority (67%) and 92% of CFOs are increasing spending to ensure this happens.

To strengthen this competitive advantage, companies plan to spend more on customer service (67%), technology infrastructure (51%) and labour/headcount (48%). This is supported by reports of increased pressure to compete on the quality of customer service (84%), a focus on information security and how difficulties in hiring and retaining employees (sales and marketing staff in particular) are preventing businesses from hitting their goals.

But finance execs are also investing in financial reporting and compliance (37%), production inputs (35%) and advertising, marketing and PR (31%) as transparency remains critical, prices rise and the battle for market share continues to wage. And 59% say exports are set to become more important for growth.

Jose Carvalho, Senior Vice President, Global Commercial Payments Europe at American Express says: “CFOs in 2017 don’t just have to balance the books – they are having to tackle everything from automation to international trade, and plan their investment accordingly. The Chief Flexibility Officer isn’t just the guardian of the purse strings. They are absolutely critical to helping businesses survive and thrive, by investing in the right areas, in the right ways.”

“We work with business leaders across the country to make sure they are set up for success today and in the future. As a result we know how important it is for finance teams to have tools at their disposal to help them operate and grow their business efficiently – and for them to deliver the strategic value we know will be so important for the rest of 2017 and beyond.”

(Source: American Express)

JLT Specialty, the specialist insurance broker and risk consultant, saw a 60% increase in the number of insured deals during 2016 compared to 2015 globally. This type of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) insurance, also known as Warranty and Indemnity (W&I) insurance - of which the real estate and private equity sector remain the key beneficiaries of - is designed to pay out if a buyer discovers the business bought is not what the seller advised it would be.

In its annual M&A Insurance Index report, JLT found that the average limit of insurance (as a percentage of the enterprise value) increased by 16% in 2016 compared to the previous year. This equates to an average insured amount of 29% of the total deal value for global transactions outside of the US.

This may be a reaction to perceived heightened investment risk driven by economic uncertainty around the Brexit negotiations, but equally it may reflect the ever-falling premium rates, as today it is possible to get more protection for less premium. Levels of cover in the US were lower at 23% of deal value, but Japan and Singapore saw the highest levels of protection at 30% and 34% respectively.

Overall market capacity has increased, largely due to new insurer entrants. Existing insurers and managing general agents are also significantly increasing their individual line sizes with a number now able to deploy $US100m+ per deal, allowing high limits of insurance to be met by a single or small number, of insurers. This has advantages from an execution risk perspective, as well as potential benefits in the event of a claim.

The real estate sector continues to be one of the main users of M&A insurance. Alongside this, private equity deals still represent a majority of insured transactions, with industrial and retail markets becoming increasingly frequent users. In what is becoming common practice across numerous business sectors, the seller often facilitates the use of insurance very early on in the deal process to optimise its exit from the transaction.

Furthermore, JLT found that whilst the seller commences the insurance process 40% of the time, it is the buyer that is the insured party on 93% of deals. This reflects a strong seller marketplace where selling parties have been able to negotiate reduced liability under the sale agreement and offer a W&I insurance policy to the buyer instead.

Ben Crabtree, Partner, Mergers and Acquisitions, JLT Specialty, said: “The events of 2016 in the UK and Europe have served as a test of maturity for the M&A insurance market, which perhaps surprisingly, has continued to soften further, both in terms of premium rates and policy retention levels, compared to 2015. This underlines the fact that competition between insurers remains at unprecedented levels. However, the market may harden a little if the current increase in claims activity we’re seeing continues.”

(Source: JLT Specialty)

Article 50 has been triggered, Brexit has well and truly begun. While the European Chief Negotiator for Brexit, Michael Barnier, would like negotiations to be completed within 18 months, the market characterised by economic and political uncertainty looks set to continue long into the future. So how should businesses behave? Michael Gould, CTO and Founder of Anaplan, sets out a five point guide to making the most of your business in such scenarios.

With all this in mind, businesses need to ensure that they are prepared for every eventuality. We’ve already seen shifts in exchange rates and with knock on effects such as price rises and likely regulatory and even workforce changes, there are a host of factors which businesses should already have on their agenda as having the potential to impact their organisations. With Brexit now in full swing, here are my top five tips for wrestling business success from the jaws of economic uncertainty.

1. Stop Waiting

With so many politicians, academics and economists each throwing in their two cents on Brexit it can be hard find any clarity around the real outcomes of Brexit. A recent survey by the Bank of England has shown a modest pick-up in UK investment, but businesses are still holding off on some longer-term investment due to a lack of visibility around future trading relationships. Whilst it’s tempting to hold fire on any serious decisions and adopt a ‘wait and see approach’, it could result in falling behind competitors and losing market share.

Staggeringly, our research revealed that two-fifths of businesses are yet to begin planning for Brexit. Avoid having to play catch up: take the time to gain an understanding of all the potential outcomes of Brexit and start from there. For example, businesses could use planning tools to simulate the impact of fluctuating exchange rates, or plan for potential scenarios on trade deals and tariffs. Another option is to explore different models of economic growth. A sensitivity analysis can then be run based on these projections, with the aim of mitigating risk and helping to plan for making the most of any opportunities.

2. Spot the opportunity

There’s no denying that the Brexit vote has brought an unprecedented level of uncertainty to the UK’s economy, but there are some forward-thinking businesses that have seen change as an opportunity to gain a competitive advantage, and adapt their services for changing consumer requirements. In fact, our research shows nearly one in three (29%) business decision makers say that the choice to leave the EU has already positively impacted their organisation. These uncertain times can be a chance to drive operational improvements or increased revenues.

The key is to identify the opportunities early. Once you understand where the openings are, success will emanate from effective planning. This means having a real-time view of the business and the market as a whole, and being able to react quickly to the slightest change. A good mix of teamwork and the right technology are vital here.

3. Take Control

To begin with, the success or failure of this transition will come down to the quality of leadership. Informed and confident business leaders will help engender a more positive attitude across the organisation. Our research found that many employees (40%) believe that knowledge and guidance should come from the CEO. But there’s a lack of faith: only 20% of respondents actually trust their leaders to provide this expertise. An effective leader inspires in times of change and uncertainty. Those at the helm of the organisation must seize the moment, take control of the situation, and crucially, be seen to be doing so by their employees.

4. Collaborate

Strong leadership from the top is vital for any business strategy, but collaboration throughout the planning cycle is just as important. Involving employees from different teams, disciplines and levels across the organisation will bring new ideas to the table, ensure everyone is bought into the strategy, and deliver a more robust approach moving forward. In uncertain times employees will value open communication and inclusiveness even more.

5. Adopt a Data-Driven Approach

While strong leadership and collaboration are both crucial to business success, companies must have the correct tools in place to take action, or they will struggle to adapt. With this in mind, it is surprising to see that so many British businesses are still relying on technologies that were developed over 30 years ago to plan in today’s market: pen and paper (58%), email (81%), Excel (86%) and Word (80%), to name a few. They simply are not fit for purpose anymore.

The data that a business produces has to be seen as one of its most valued assets. Organisations need to take full advantage of it and use the insight to make the most relevant and informed decisions. In such a volatile market, real-time data is invaluable. For instance, managers can use their company’s data to accurately simulate the potential outcomes of any decision, and forecast the possible impact.

Unfortunately, there isn’t a step-by-step guide or a defined roadmap for what the world will look like post-Brexit. However, businesses can make sure that they are ready for every outcome, modelling and planning for all possible futures. Organisational and cultural factors will play their part in ensuring that businesses are making the most informed decisions. But, those that also take a data-driven approach with the latest technologies will be a step ahead, and ready to take advantage of every opportunity in a dynamic and shifting economic market.