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Commercial real estate industry leaders participating in The Real Estate Roundtable's Q2 2017 Economic Sentiment Index report that market conditions are stable and will maintain slow, but steady growth over the next several months – yet many respondents are also less optimistic about future conditions due to uncertainty in domestic policy and the geopolitical landscape.

"As the Trump Administration and Congress continue to consider ideas for tax reform, infrastructure investment and financial regulatory overhaul, The Roundtable's Q2 Sentiment Index is tempered by anticipation about what consequences the details of any eventual legislation could have on commercial real estate," said Roundtable CEO and President Jeffrey D. DeBoer. "We continue to remain engaged on the policy front to communicate the vital economic role that CRE provides to communities throughout the country and the industry's ability to create jobs."

A recurring concern among respondents to the Q2 Sentiment Index released today is uncertainty about the prospects for domestic policy and how volatile geopolitical situations may influence the economy.

The Roundtable's Q2 2017 Sentiment Index registered at 52 — three points down from the last quarter. [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.] This quarter's Current-Conditions Index of 53 decreased two points from the previous quarter, but rose two points compared to the Q2 2016 score of 51. However, this quarter's Future-Conditions Index of 50 dipped five points from the previous quarter – but is up two points compared to the same time one year ago, when it registered at 48.

The report's Topline Findings include:

Although 31% of survey participants report Q2 asset prices today are "somewhat higher" compared to this time last year, only 15% of respondents said they expect values to be somewhat higher one year from now — reflecting the view that the current market cycle is reaching a state of equilibrium. Additionally, 48% of Q2 survey respondents said they expect asset values in one year to be "about the same" as today. Many also noted a healthy availability of capital, predicting that inflows of private capital one year from now will be similar to today's healthy conditions in the equity and debt markets, dependent on the quality of the property.

(Source: Real Estate Roundtable)

According to ATTOM Data Solutions’ Q1 2017 US Home Sales Report, which shows that homeowners who sold in the first quarter realized an average price gain of $44,000 since purchase, representing an average 24% return on the purchase price — the highest average price gain for home sellers in terms of both dollars and percentage returns since Q3 2007.

Meanwhile, the report also shows that homeowners who sold in the first quarter had owned an average of 7.97 years, down slightly from a record-high average homeownership tenure of 8.00 years in Q4 2016 but still up from 7.68 years in Q1 2016. Homeownership tenure averaged 4.26 years nationwide between Q1 2000 and Q3 2007, prior to the Great Recession.

"The first quarter of 2017 was the most profitable time to be a home seller in nearly a decade, and yet homeowners are continuing to stay put in their homes longer before selling," said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president with ATTOM Data Solutions. "This counterintuitive combination is in part the result of the low inventory of move-up homes available for current homeowners, while also perpetuating the scarcity of starter homes available for first-time homebuyers.

"The average homeownership tenure was down from a year ago in nine of the 66 markets we analyzed, including Memphis, Dallas, Boston, Portland and Tampa," Blomquist added.

Markets with biggest home seller price gains
Among 97 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 1,000 home sales in Q1 2017 (and with previous sales price information available), those with the highest average price gain since purchase realized by home sellers during the quarter were San Jose, California ($356,500 average price gain); San Francisco, California ($276,750 average price gain) and Los Angeles, California ($187,000 average price gain).

"Across our Southern California markets, low listing inventory has continued to drive multiple-offer scenarios," said Michael Mahon, president at First Team Real Estate covering the Southern California market. "We have noticed many buyers now leveraging investment accounts, as well as some leverage of reverse mortgages, to enable their ability to negotiate in competitive multiple-offer scenarios. This level of competition, as well as continued signals of a growth economy, has created momentum particularly in the luxury market of over $1 million in sales price."

Metro areas with the highest% return on the previous purchase price were San Jose, California (71% average ROI); San Francisco, California (65%); and Seattle, Washington (56%);

"Thanks to Seattle's robust economic and job growth, home prices continue to rise at well above average rates and have now surpassed their pre-housing bubble peak. Because of this, it's no surprise that distressed sales continue to fall," said Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate, covering the Seattle market. "The increase in all-cash home sales in Seattle is likely not a result of investors, but rather all-cash buyers who are using this tactic to win homes in what it is a hyper-competitive housing market."

Cash sales share down from a year ago, still above pre-recession levels
All-cash sales represented 30.0% of all single family and condo sales in Q1 2017, up from 29.1% in the previous quarter but down from 32.1% in Q1 2016. The 30.0% share in the first quarter was well below the peak of 44.7% in Q1 2011 but was still above the pre-recession average of 20.4% from Q1 2000 to Q3 2007.

"With a stronger market and overall sales increasing, we are seeing a decrease in foreclosure sales across the markets we serve, as well as seeing a decrease in institutional investors purchasing homes," said Matthew Watercutter, senior regional vice president and broker of record for HER Realtors, covering the Dayton, Columbus and Cincinnati markets in Ohio. "With the stronger market and availability of money from institutional lenders such as mortgage companies and credit unions, we are seeing a decrease in cash purchases, as more properties are being sold to owner occupants and fewer to investors."

(Source: ATTOM Data Solutions)

Financial gains in the UK housing market are being put on the back burner, as low noise levels, a place to relax and unwind and a home with good natural light and views of nature - are now seen as three times more important than a house that will improve in value - according to a new report by construction giant Saint-Gobain UK and Ireland.

The study, which shows that 90% of homeowners and renters want a home that doesn’t compromise their health and wellbeing, also unveiled that environmental factors are top of respondent’s minds - with high energy bills, the levels of cold in winter and noise from neighbours among the top three things people want to change in their home.

The study, which quizzed more than 3,000 homeowners and renters across the UK, delved further into the top desires of a home, finding 84% of people want a property to be environmentally friendly, but only 16% would be willing to pay more for it. Safety also ranked highly - for the under 50’s a neighbourhood where children can play outside safely, is the most important and for the over 50’s a home where they feel safe and secure is key.

Clare Murray, Head of Sustainability at Levitt Bernstein comments of the findings; “From the results of the survey there is a distinct opportunity to connect views of external green spaces with areas of safe and easily accessible play to suit all life stages. Linking homes and people with the visual comfort provided by views of nature, while allowing children the independence to experience it, should continue to be a priority for the homes we design and build in the future.”

Developed to influence the future of homes, ‘The UK Home, Health and Wellbeing Report’ conducted by Saint-Gobain UK and Ireland, and released in collaboration with academia and other businesses in the built environment sector, including the UK Green Building Council, UCL and Levitt Bernstein – provides insight into better understanding householder needs and makes sure homes are truly fit for purpose.

Stacey Temprell, Habitat Marketing Director at Saint-Gobain UK and Ireland, commented: “Looking to how the study can step change the industry, it’s clear that putting wellbeing at top billing for property and rental listings, as well as influencing the building factors for new properties could be huge. The report detailed that 91% of 18 — 24 year olds for example, are the most likely group to be influenced by energy ratings when it comes to choosing a home to rent or buy – and these are our future decision makers.”

(Source: Multi Comfort)

The housing and neighborhood location choices of immigrants will have a significant impact on urban growth in the US for decades to come, particularly as more foreign-born residents seek to own homes in suburban communities, according to new research from the Urban Land Institute's Terwilliger Center for Housing. Homebuilders and developers who can deliver the housing options immigrants want and need stand to benefit in the years to come.

Home in America: Immigrants and Housing Demand examines the influence of immigrants in shaping urban growth patterns, particularly those who have entered the US since the Great Recession (since 2010, the number of immigrants from Asia has surpassed those from Latin America). "Immigrants have helped stabilize and strengthen the housing market throughout the recovery," said Terwilliger Center Executive Director Stockton Williams. "Immigrants' housing purchasing power and preferences are significant economic assets for metropolitan regions across the country. This suggests the potential for much more growth attributable to foreign-born residents in the years ahead," he added.

Among the key findings from the report:

The findings in Home in America are drawn in part from analyses of the housing and neighborhood preferences of immigrants in five metropolitan areas that represent different types of immigrant gateways:

Home in America notes that foreign-born population growth in most of gateways outpaced overall population growth between 2006 and 2014 (the time period from just prior to the housing market collapse through the housing rally). Emerging gateways, which experienced strong overall population growth, were the only exception. The report also looks at the neighborhood choices of immigrants within the five metro areas, focusing on five categories of suburbs (typologies developed for ULI by RCLCO):

The differences in where immigrants are locating in the five cities is an indicator of how they could influence future growth within these markets, the report says. In San Francisco, immigrants are spread across nearly all types of suburban communities, with the highestpercentage, 35%, living in economically challenged neighborhoods. In Houston, the largest share of immigrants, 39%, live in stable middle-income suburbs, followed by 29% in economically challenged suburbs. In Buffalo, 30% live in established high-end suburbs (a greater share than the native-born population) and 27% live in urban neighborhoods. In Minneapolis, the highestpercentage, 32%, live in economically challenged suburbs, followed by 27% in stable middle-income suburbs. In Charlotte, 27% live in economically challenged suburbs. Nineteen% live in stable-income suburbs and an additional 19% live in established high-end suburbs.

Home in America points out that the presence of immigrants could help boost revitalization in economically challenged suburbs; sustain the success of stable middle-income suburbs; and contribute to the growth and diversity of established high-end suburbs. "If recent shifts in immigration flows continue, an increase in higher-income immigrants – including rising numbers from China and India – could accelerate the demand for homeownership among the foreign-born population," the report says. "Without sustained immigration, the housing market could weaken and in many markets the impact could be dramatic."

(Source: Urban Land Institute)

Home ownership ambitions of millennials in the UK are still very much alive, despite the challenges of assembling a deposit for a house, according to HSBC’s first Beyond the Bricks study.

The study of more than 10,000 people across nine countries found that three-quarters (74%) of UK millennials expect to be property owners within the next five years, however, this is significantly below the global average of 83%.

Slow salary growth and house price inflation mean the British millennial generation face significant challenges compared to its global counterparts when it comes to housing affordability. The average property price in the UK increased by 7.5% in 2016, with official wage growth figures showing just a 1.9% growth.

Global statistics – millennial home ownership:

Country Millennial home owners (%) Millennial non-owners intending to buy in next 5 years (%)
Average 40 83
United Kingdom 31 74
Australia 28 83
Canada 34 82
China* 70 91
France 41 69
Malaysia 35 94
Mexico 46 94
United Arab Emirates 26 80
United States 35 80


* China survey sample includes 85% urban, 14% rural and 1% rural respondents

Country Annual house price

growth 2016 (%)[1]

Projected real salary growth 2017 (%)[2]
United Kingdom 7.5 1.9
Australia 5.4                        1.6
Canada 7.4                        0.9
China 3.6 4.0
France 0.6 1.5
Malaysia 3.2 3.9
Mexico 5.2 1.9
United Arab Emirates -5.4 0.5
United States 4.8 1.9

According to Tracie Pearce, HSBC UK’s Head of Mortgages: “This study challenges the myth that the home ownership dream is dead for millennials in the UK. With three in ten already owning their own home, the dream of home ownership for millennials is definitely alive and kicking. In the UK, they face a two-pronged problem of rising house prices and slow salary growth meaning the dream of home ownership is a challenge but not unachievable.”

Financial support from parents can make all the difference when saving for a home, and over a quarter (27%) of millennials who bought their own home turned to the ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’ as a source of funding.

Despite the challenges, many UK millennials are willing to consider making sacrifices to afford their own home.  Almost half (47%) of those intending to buy would consider spending less on leisure and going out, 33% would be prepared to buy smaller than their dream home.

The report also finds that many millennials need to consider their financials when it comes to planning for their home purchase. Of millennial non-owners intending to buy a home in the next two years, more than 1 in 3 (40%) have no overall budget in mind and a further 48% have only set an approximate budget.

Therefore it is not surprising that over half (57%) of millennials who bought a home in the last two years ended up overspending their budget.

*Average national deposit based on current industry figures

HSBC’s research identified four actions that millennials can take to help make their home ownership dream a reality:

  1. Plan early and don’t underestimate the deposit

Start planning early to make home ownership a reality sooner. Include saving for the deposit, usually the first payment you will need to make. Find a competitive mortgage to help make borrowing the rest more affordable.

  1. Budget beyond the purchase price

Think about the extra things that will make the house you buy the home you want to live in, and make sure to include them in your home purchase budget.

  1. Consider what cut backs you can make

Consider cutting back on your day-to-day spending. Think outside the box about what could help you to buy a home, such as buying with a family member or friend.

  1. Get a full view of your finances

Think of your mortgage as part of your long-term financial plan, not as a one-off transaction. Different types of home loan suit different needs and situations. Seek professional financial advice if you need help to make the right choice.

[1] International Monetary Fund: Global Housing Watch November 2016   

[2] Korn Ferry Hay Group: 2017 Salary Forecast

(Source: HSBC)

This week Finance Monthly interviewed Tom Carroll, head of EMEA corporate research at JLL, which released its 2017 report on global CRE trends just a few weeks ago. Here Tom delves into the future of automation in the CRE sector and discusses the current impact its having on businesses.

Could you introduce the need for more automation to benefit the business processes and real estate needs for corporates?

Robotics and automation are already being adopted widely across the corporate world. Going forward, they are more likely to lead to job transformation as opposed to wholesale replacement of human labor. This shift will free up time for innovative, creative and strategic work.

Automating repetitive, simple tasks in business processes will help increase speed, precision and cost efficiency. From a real estate perspective, this means that the organisation will be reorganised. The work that companies do and the way they do it is changing. As the more process-driven elements of work fall into artificial intelligence, the use of freelancers, consultants and contingent workers sourced via virtual marketplaces is becoming increasingly common too. This means that the companies of the future will be leaner and more dispersed allowing their employees to focus more narrowly on value creation.

How are overall roles set to change within large companies on the back of automation, and what about SMEs?

The companies of the future will be leaner, with remaining employees more narrowly focused on value creation and other activities delegated to specialist providers or intelligent machines. Competing for talent, however, will continue to be a major challenge due to slowing growth in the global labour pool across the next 15 years.

Therefore, developing talent strategies to attract and retain the right kinds of employee is essential. There are two generations of talent that firms particularly need to get to grips with to successfully navigate the changes taking place: digital natives and digital dependents. These groups have the digital skills and understanding of technology that companies need to transform their businesses.

What has so far been the impact of introducing automation in business operations?

McKinsey analyzed 2,000 work activities across 800 occupations and found that just 5% of occupations are likely to be become fully automated based on currently demonstrated technologies. However, individual activities in almost every job can be partially automated. Adapting current technologies could allow half of all activities that people are paid for to be automated, equal to almost $16 trillion in wages.

Overall, the report estimates that 49 percent of the activities that people are paid to do in the global economy have the potential to be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technology. While less than 5 percent of occupations can be fully automated, about 60 percent have at least 30 percent of activities that can technically be automated.

The good news is that automation could raise productivity growth, which would be a boon at a time when productivity rates have been falling. McKinsey estimates it could boost productivity growth globally by 0.8% to 1.4% annually in 2015-2065. That compares with the 0.3% productivity boost afforded by the creation of the steam engine in the period from 1850 to 1910.

What would you say is the biggest benefit, and are there any downsides?

Enhanced productivity and lower costs could be significant benefits for companies. Another of the biggest benefits of integrating automated processes is the fact that employees and companies can specialise and focus on value creation, innovation and growth.

As the shape of the workforce changes. Real estate portfolios will be consolidated, with a greater share of space located in urban hubs which appeal to top talent. The design of office environments will be guided by user experience as the competition for talent grows more intense.

What are the best examples of automation in large businesses? What might these look like in future?

Intelligent software is already automating many back-office roles in fields like accountancy, finance and law. E-discovery software, for instance, can analyse millions of electronic documents and tease out ones that might be relevant for a legal case, even when specific words or phrases are not present.

At JLL, for instance, we have signed a global agreement with Leverton to automate lease administration. Leverton’s machine and deep learning technology enables the identification, extraction and management of key terms and data from corporate documents, such as leases and contracts, in more than 20 languages. JLL will integrate these systems into its own global technology platforms to transform the way lease documents are reviewed, analysed and managed for its clients. This way, our clients will benefit from optimised data management, more efficient processing of documentation, reduced operational risk and a more robust audit trail.

Chicago-based Narrative Science has developed software capable of taking raw statistics and data and converting it into prose. Originally used to convert sports statistics into news stories, it’s now being used by a leading international bank to summarise stock activity for the firm’s brokers – a task which was formerly undertaken by a team of 20 people.

Cognitive artificial intelligence (AI) programmes that can respond to natural language will see human to machine collaboration become part of everyday working life. Watson, IBM’s natural language processing artificial intelligence system which famously defeated two human contestants on US prime time quiz show ‘Jeopardy!’ is now being used in fields like medicine, banking and customer services. Watson can even act as a ‘c-suite advisor’, scanning documents, listening in on meetings and advising on which companies to invest in. Ross Intelligence – an application powered by IBM Watson – can answer legal questions asked in natural language by shifting through huge databases of legal documents.

In a similar capacity, Kenshoo – a natural language processing system that another major international bank has invested in – provides detailed answers to financial questions that are asked in plain English. Applications like these – that can interact with humans through speech – will be called on to support or enhance the work of people.

How do you expect workplace attitudes to change in respect to automated roles?

Workplace attitudes are already shifting, just as people are becoming more comfortable with smart technology and robotics in the home. Automation has already transformed manufacturing processes and what we are seeing is an extension into new industries and job functions.

User experience will take primacy in the design of office environments as the war for talent grows more intense. To meet the expectations of the next generation and boost the productivity of those using the office, a greater variety of spaces will be available to work in. Activity based working – an approach to creating workplaces that provide users with shared access to spaces for individual and collaborative work – will become commonplace in workplace design. High-quality services, from food and beverages to recreation spaces, gyms and space to support wellbeing, will become standard features in core locations.

What does the real estate or financial services company of the future look like in respect to automation?

By 2030, companies will look very different than they do today. They will have diverse real estate portfolios that balance core space requirements with greater amounts of flexible space. Core locations will be concentrated in fewer, yet more dynamic, strategic, locations. More of them will be in developing markets with strong talent pools. Automation and outsourcing will streamline the workforces of large companies and reduce the number of full-time staff they employ. Employees will also benefit from greater automation of basic process driven activities within their day to day roles and technology may even improve the work life balance of employees.

John Mackris, MAI, MRICS is an Executive Director within the Valuation & Advisory (V&A) group of Cushman & Wakefield Inc., a full-service worldwide real estate company with over 43,000 employees. Cushman & Wakefield’s V&A group provides advice on real estate equity and debt decisions to clients on a worldwide scale and comprises 1,670 professionals located in more than 130 offices in 30 countries worldwide. The group’s capabilities span valuation and advisory services relating to acquisition, disposition, financing, litigation, and financial reporting, and 18 practice groups deliver real estate strategies and solutions to clients with unique operational, technical and business requirements. Mr. Mackris is also a Midwest Region Leader within C&W’s Retail Industry specialty group.

 

How would you currently describe the US real estate appraisal industry and what shifts do you expect throughout 2017?

The US real estate industry has been evolving at an accelerating pace over recent years due to advancing technology and better equipped professionals. Access to an extensive level of market information at the appraiser’s finger tips combined with more sophisticated software to analyse this information has resulted in much more credible and supportable valuations. While the number of US-based appraisers has declined by about 2.5 percent per year over the last decade, the number of appraisals has increased, as appraisers have become more efficient. Over the next five to 10 years, this trend of fewer appraisers is anticipated to continue due to retirements, fewer new people entering the appraisal profession, economic factors, and increasing government regulation. The question is whether the rate of appraiser efficiency can continue; if not, expect appraisal fees and turnaround times to rise.

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Specific to 2017, appraisers will need to be cognizant of the Trump administration’s new tax and deregulation policies, and how they will impact various types of real estate in different geographic locations. Most investors are anticipating lower corporate and personal income taxes, but potentially higher border import taxes. The implications of tax policy combined with deregulation will potentially have a varied approach across the US real estate market. Real estate in import-oriented areas might suffer, while areas with heavy manufacturing geared to domestic consumption will benefit. Overall, most economists are anticipating strong economic growth compared to the Obama years, where GDP growth hovered in the 1.0 to 2.0 percent range.  If GDP growth reaches the 3.0 to 4.0 percent level, appraisers can anticipate significant changes in almost all property types, with new development and adaptive re-use becoming an increasing part of the assignment log. Strong economic growth, however, will also bring interest rate hikes from the Fed, which would push borrowing costs upwards and change investor purchasing assumptions. The key for appraisers in 2017, and more so than in years past, will be constant market research and understanding the factors that are driving each transaction.

 

What would you say are the biggest challenges facing real estate appraisal companies in the US?

There are many challenges facing appraisal companies, such as finding and retaining good employees, or staying compliant with an ever-growing barrage of governmental regulations, but these are not new to the industry. What has changed over the last decade is the need to incorporate more technology into the process and balance this against an overreliance on technology.  Appraisal has often been described as a combination of science and art, with “art” being a synonym for common sense and experience.  While the next generation of appraisers, or “millennials,” bring a strong technical skillset to the field, the key for this generation will be whether they can transition back to the basics of primary research.  In laymen terms, this means picking up the phone and talking to market participants rather than simply searching on Google. With an ever-aging base of appraisers, this transition will be critical to good quality valuations in the years to come.

 

 Do you foresee the need for legislative change in the near future, if so why?

 Yes, there is a strong need for legislative change in the near future. The appraisal process has become more costly, more complicated, and less productive due to out-dated regulations. The federal regulatory structure for real estate appraisals (FIRREA) has not changed since 1989. As a result, appraisers have to deal with a layering effect of rules and regulations that discourages new people from entering the field, while also decreasing appraiser profitability. As an example, the industry has seen several new, time-consuming regulations pertaining to the role many senior appraisers conduct as a supervisor-appraiser to a trainee-appraiser. In discussing these new regulations with my peers, many have elected to drop plans they had for new hiring as they felt the time, cost, and effort of staying compliant were not worth the benefits afforded by the new hire. The Appraisal Institute is fighting to reduce the number of regulations, but it will take time to reverse the increased regulatory trend over the last decade.

 

In your opinion, what would be the best approach to modernize the US appraisal regulatory structure?

 Often times, appraisers work in multiple states. This is common among appraisers who reside near their state border, and appraisers that specialize in unique property types, in which their expertise is in demand across a wider geographic area. As an appraiser based in Chicago, I often complete assignments in the nearby states of Wisconsin and Indiana. And as a specialist in retail shopping centers, I cover a territory which comprises the entire Midwest region of the US consisting of nine states. Needless to say, completing each state’s licensing regulations can be time consuming.  What makes this process frustrating, however, is that these states all have slightly different requirements for education, reporting, application dates, and regulatory fees.  While they all share the same goal of ensuring the integrity and professionalism of appraisers within their states, their varied regulations add unnecessary burdens on industry professionals.  A simple solution would be if each state could outsource its regulation to a single interagency firm and provide a multi-state license. Or, at a bare minimum, each state should try and synchronize its regulations with the neighbouring states.

 

In your role, what are the main challenges you encounter and how do you work alongside your clients to overcome these?

An appraisal assignment contains many steps in a process, with the finished product comprising the final appraisal report. The first step is gathering property-specific information, such as rent rolls, leases, operating statements, etc. Gathering this information from the property contact as soon as the assignment is engaged is critical to an on-time delivery, as often times it may take the property contact several days to gather and deliver these items. Once delivered, the appraiser can then commence his or her analysis. The initial receipt of this information can often open up a need for additional items, which can then add pressure to the promised delivery date.  Over the years, I have found that effective communication with my clients regarding the nuances of the property and what property-specific information is needed can effectively eliminate the need for deadline extensions. Some clients have realized that they can facilitate the process by informing their borrowers of what items will be needed prior to appraiser engagement, which can eliminate days of waiting.

 

Looking at the work of your peers, and in your past experience, how would you say the role of a real estate appraiser has changed over the past 20 years?

Surprisingly, the role of appraisers over the past 20 years has stayed the same more than it has changed.  The market still looks to appraisers for the insight, expertise, knowledge, and unbiased view of market value.  While technology has changed the process of appraising, the appraisers’ role, fortunately, has not changed.  If appraisers are true to their mission, they can offer market participants an impartial view a property’s value, and the state of the micro- and macro-market in which it is situated.  In an environment often tainted by varied interests, nothing can be more valuable than a real professional’s unbiased opinion.

 

 

 

 

With real estate markets in a bubble of volatility from year to year, mortgage rates due to rebound, and increasing purchase struggle for first time buyers, it’s about time we looked back through the years and really understood how we’ve arrived where we are today. This month Finance Monthly has heard from Tracie Pearce, Head of Mortgages at HSBC. Tracie gives us a rundown of mortgage history from day 1, and points towards the shifts that are set to further shape how buyers afford their bricks.

I’ve always had misgivings about birthdays. But a 21st industry birthday taking us back to 1996, the year when the British Olympics team won 15 medals in Atlanta, Trainspotting was released and just 16% of households had mobile phones, feels worth a little retrospection. A lot has happened!

In 1996, I was an assistant analyst at specialist lender Sun Bank based in Stevenage, building and maintaining PCs and hardware for mortgage platforms. In that same year, 1996, a handful of lenders formed the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) marking the beginnings of the buy-to-let market with industry self-regulation in the shape of the Mortgage Code emerging the following year.

Through the 1990s, the building society sector, which did 72% of lending in the mid-80s saw further demutualisation but by 2000, the banks held sway with 70% of gross mortgage lending and mortgage brokers were estimated to be introducing just over half of this business.

 

The rise of the mortgage adviser

The early naughties saw the rise of the intermediated mortgage market, which brought mortgage choice and mass regulatory compliance ahead of the advice industry’s regulation on M Day, on 31 October 2004.

Disclosure documents including the Key Facts Illustration (KFI) became mandatory and more importantly advisers became Directly Authorised (DA) or Appointed Representatives (AR) to networks to comply with regulation.

The 2000s were arguably a fantastic time for the majority of mortgage consumers with immense mortgage product choice and loss-leading two-year fixed rates. There was easy access to credit fuelled by lender competition and record house price inflation hit 26.5% in January 2003, according to Nationwide.

On the timeline, was when I was lucky enough to be involved in launching The Mortgage Works brand. The market was buoyant, spirits were high and product innovation relatively fast and furious. It was around this time that the market moved from a position of bespoke products and pricing calibrated by risk, to more of a mass market offering and more agile processing timescales. Lenders were investing in automation, including conveyancer and valuation instructions and time to offer shortened to around 10-14 days, not so far from where we are now.

 Mortgage Strategy ran a hero and villain of the week column and all the lenders were vying for the hero of the week position but desperate to avoid being called out as the villain. It was just a bit of fun, but certainly showed what was motivating product teams at the time.

 

The economic crunch

Meanwhile, the downside, of course, was that this perceived ‘magic porridge pot’ of equity also arguably softened the perception of borrowing risk for lenders and customers alike. By 2007, gross mortgage lending had ballooned to hit £360bn – and then, the market imploded as the credit crunch hit.

The bleak economic period and soul searching that followed handed culpability to borrowers, lenders, advisers and the credit reference agencies, alike.

One of my most vivid memories was Thursday 6th November 2008 when the Monetary Policy Committee slashed Bank Base Rate from 4.5% to 3% in one go, a really deep cut! The market was shocked. In the days and weeks that followed, products were withdrawn, lending criteria tightened and lenders retrenched to serving their direct channels first.

The FSA, was abolished on 1st April 2013 and replaced by a twin peak FCA/PRA regulatory system, with a new steely zeal for conduct regulation under the leadership of CEO Martin Wheatley.

The Mortgage Market Review was initially signposted in 2009 but took until 26 April 2014 to finally arrive after full consultation. For a period, lenders struggled to meet consumer demand as they embedded processes and training to give advice (in some channels) for the first time. Brokers leaned in to bridge this capacity gap and the industry (on the whole) gave the regulator credit for an exhaustive, clearly-trailed process.

In October 2014 HSBC entered the intermediary market for the first time, which was one of the single biggest strategic changes the bank has ever made on the mortgage side. As the adviser market’s star rose and the regulatory landscape changed, the bank made a commitment to the intermediary market, which has brought successes for both sides and clear benefit for customers.

We started with a pilot one intermediary partner – Countrywide – and London & Country joined the panel in August 15, over the last 18 months, we have been methodically and systematically expanding our reach and we now have 16 intermediary partner firms, with around 7,000 individual brokers, with more on the immediate horizon.

We are committed to working effectively with our broker partners, ensuring the best products and customer service as well as continuous improvement to deliver a market-leading customer experience.

So, George Osborne’s focus on landlords and the buy-to-let market almost brings us up to date. The Chancellor announced changes to mortgage interest tax relief in 2015 which will gradually be reduced to 20% between 2017 and 2020. The Stamp Duty surcharge of 3% was introduced from April 2016 was the next in a raft of affordability-focused, tweaks, joined the rule changes bringing in tighter underwriting on 1 January.

Inevitably the plethora of rule changes have slowed it down a little but the market is professional and I believe it is resilient. I believe it has the strength to recover, albeit it may be in a slightly different guise. As lenders have adjusted credit criteria, landlords will rethink how they choose to invest.

 

Looking forward to evolution

The last 21 years have been a whirlwind, and there is no doubt the next 21 years in this industry will bring more change, surprises and evolution than the last.

Mortgage lenders are on the horns of several dilemmas. Lenders understand the value of common sense lending into sectors like later life, interest-only or self-employed mortgages but must be considerate of capital adequacy and conduct.

Speaking more broadly, the demographic imperative is that the UK must build more homes and the buy-to-let market remains key to the overall health of the housing market, so should be left to adjust and recover. Not all customers can or want to own their own homes so it is just as important to help those who want to rent a property. The government has recognised this with its commitment to supporting mixed tenure homes.

 

What about the adviser?

Advice will remain central to the mortgage process, but I suspect honed and supported by technology. Digitalisation is set to reinvigorate the homebuying and mortgage application journey for consumers. This could mean automated confidential documentation exchanges allowing all parties in the process easy access to the same proofs of identity or even online passports which offer instant authentication.

We are going to see more screen-to-screen technology supporting the customer conversation at the front-end, for example with a tablet or mobile device from the comfort of the customer's living room.

For the adviser, online fact finds will help speed up the advice process and authentication of documents and I see Digital Advice, known more generally as RoboAdvice, working particularly well for an execution-only sale for seasoned remortgage customers who may choose to sidestep or not need face-to-face advice.

I strongly believe that those who work in the mortgage industry are very privileged to work with a product that has such a deep emotional connection for the customer.

Getting your first home, buying a bigger home to start a family in, or somewhere to retreat to if your relationship breaks down are all hugely impactful purchases. It is our pleasure to do everything we can to help people through this process. HSBC aims to empower customers with the right tools and advice to help them become knowledgeable as homebuyers and learn as much as they want to during the process.

The competition commission reporting in the summer will have plenty to say on how we could achieve this and benchmark good practice. But it’s safe to say we’ll have just as much to do and think about over the next 21 years.

 

Website: https://www.hsbc.co.uk/1/2/

With real estate markets in a bubble of volatility from year to year, mortgage rates due to rebound, and increasing purchase struggle for first time buyers, it’s about time we looked back through the years and really understood how we’ve arrived where we are today. This week Finance Monthly has heard from Tracie Pearce, Head of Mortgages at HSBC. Tracie gives us a rundown of mortgage history from day one, and points towards the shifts that are set to further shape how buyers afford their bricks.

I’ve always had misgivings about birthdays. But a 21st industry birthday taking us back to 1996, the year when the British Olympics team won 15 medals in Atlanta, Trainspotting was released and just 16% of households had mobile phones, feels worth a little retrospection. A lot has happened!

In 1996, I was an assistant analyst at specialist lender Sun Bank based in Stevenage, building and maintaining PCs and hardware for mortgage platforms. In that same year, 1996, a handful of lenders formed the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) marking the beginnings of the buy-to-let market with industry self-regulation in the shape of the Mortgage Code emerging the following year.

Through the 1990s, the building society sector, which did 72% of lending in the mid-80s saw further demutualisation but by 2000, the banks held sway with 70% of gross mortgage lending and mortgage brokers were estimated to be introducing just over half of this business.

The rise of the mortgage adviser

The early naughties saw the rise of the intermediated mortgage market, which brought mortgage choice and mass regulatory compliance ahead of the advice industry’s regulation on M Day, on 31 October 2004.

Disclosure documents including the Key Facts Illustration (KFI) became mandatory and more importantly advisers became Directly Authorised (DA) or Appointed Representatives (AR) to networks to comply with regulation.

The 2000s were arguably a fantastic time for the majority of mortgage consumers with immense mortgage product choice and loss-leading two-year fixed rates. There was easy access to credit fuelled by lender competition and record house price inflation hit 26.5% in January 2003, according to Nationwide.

On the timeline, was when I was lucky enough to be involved in launching The Mortgage Works brand. The market was buoyant, spirits were high and product innovation relatively fast and furious. It was around this time that the market moved from a position of bespoke products and pricing calibrated by risk, to more of a mass market offering and more agile processing timescales. Lenders were investing in automation, including conveyancer and valuation instructions and time to offer shortened to around 10-14 days, not so far from where we are now.

 Mortgage Strategy ran a hero and villain of the week column and all the lenders were vying for the hero of the week position but desperate to avoid being called out as the villain. It was just a bit of fun, but certainly showed what was motivating product teams at the time.

The economic crunch

Meanwhile, the downside, of course, was that this perceived ‘magic porridge pot’ of equity also arguably softened the perception of borrowing risk for lenders and customers alike. By 2007, gross mortgage lending had ballooned to hit £360bn – and then, the market imploded as the credit crunch hit.

The bleak economic period and soul searching that followed handed culpability to borrowers, lenders, advisers and the credit reference agencies, alike.

One of my most vivid memories was Thursday 6th November 2008 when the Monetary Policy Committee slashed Bank Base Rate from 4.5% to 3% in one go, a really deep cut! The market was shocked. In the days and weeks that followed, products were withdrawn, lending criteria tightened and lenders retrenched to serving their direct channels first.

The FSA, was abolished on 1st April 2013 and replaced by a twin peak FCA/PRA regulatory system, with a new steely zeal for conduct regulation under the leadership of CEO Martin Wheatley.

The Mortgage Market Review was initially signposted in 2009 but took until 26 April 2014 to finally arrive after full consultation. For a period, lenders struggled to meet consumer demand as they embedded processes and training to give advice (in some channels) for the first time. Brokers leaned in to bridge this capacity gap and the industry (on the whole) gave the regulator credit for an exhaustive, clearly-trailed process.

In October 2014 HSBC entered the intermediary market for the first time, which was one of the single biggest strategic changes the bank has ever made on the mortgage side. As the adviser market’s star rose and the regulatory landscape changed, the bank made a commitment to the intermediary market, which has brought successes for both sides and clear benefit for customers.

We started with a pilot one intermediary partner – Countrywide – and London & Country joined the panel in August 15, over the last 18 months, we have been methodically and systematically expanding our reach and we now have 16 intermediary partner firms, with around 7,000 individual brokers, with more on the immediate horizon.

We are committed to working effectively with our broker partners, ensuring the best products and customer service as well as continuous improvement to deliver a market-leading customer experience.

So, George Osborne’s focus on landlords and the buy-to-let market almost brings us up to date. The Chancellor announced changes to mortgage interest tax relief in 2015 which will gradually be reduced to 20% between 2017 and 2020. The Stamp Duty surcharge of 3% was introduced from April 2016 was the next in a raft of affordability-focused, tweaks, joined the rule changes bringing in tighter underwriting on 1 January.

Inevitably the plethora of rule changes have slowed it down a little but the market is professional and I believe it is resilient. I believe it has the strength to recover, albeit it may be in a slightly different guise. As lenders have adjusted credit criteria, landlords will rethink how they choose to invest.

Looking forward to evolution

The last 21 years have been a whirlwind, and there is no doubt the next 21 years in this industry will bring more change, surprises and evolution than the last.

Mortgage lenders are on the horns of several dilemmas. Lenders understand the value of common sense lending into sectors like later life, interest-only or self-employed mortgages but must be considerate of capital adequacy and conduct.

Speaking more broadly, the demographic imperative is that the UK must build more homes and the buy-to-let market remains key to the overall health of the housing market, so should be left to adjust and recover. Not all customers can or want to own their own homes so it is just as important to help those who want to rent a property. The government has recognised this with its commitment to supporting mixed tenure homes.

What about the adviser?

Advice will remain central to the mortgage process, but I suspect honed and supported by technology. Digitalisation is set to reinvigorate the homebuying and mortgage application journey for consumers. This could mean automated confidential documentation exchanges allowing all parties in the process easy access to the same proofs of identity or even online passports which offer instant authentication.

We are going to see more screen-to-screen technology supporting the customer conversation at the front-end, for example with a tablet or mobile device from the comfort of the customer's living room.

For the adviser, online fact finds will help speed up the advice process and authentication of documents and I see Digital Advice, known more generally as RoboAdvice, working particularly well for an execution-only sale for seasoned remortgage customers who may choose to sidestep or not need face-to-face advice.

I strongly believe that those who work in the mortgage industry are very privileged to work with a product that has such a deep emotional connection for the customer.

Getting your first home, buying a bigger home to start a family in, or somewhere to retreat to if your relationship breaks down are all hugely impactful purchases. It is our pleasure to do everything we can to help people through this process. HSBC aims to empower customers with the right tools and advice to help them become knowledgeable as homebuyers and learn as much as they want to during the process.

The competition commission reporting in the summer will have plenty to say on how we could achieve this and benchmark good practice. But it’s safe to say we’ll have just as much to do and think about over the next 21 years.

According to UK mortgage lender Halifax, February saw the lowest increase in house price since July 29013, going up just 5.1% YoY. This means that house price inflation has halved over the course of 11 months.

Halifax’s housing economist, Martin Ellis says this is down to a sustained period of house price growth in excess of pay rises making it more and more difficult for many to buy a home. He says that this, alongside a reduced momentum in the job market and less consumer spending will equate to a further slowdown in inflation rise throughout 2017.

This week Finance Monthly has heard from a number of sources in the housing markets sector, to see what their thoughts are on the slowdown, and whether indeed more growth curbing is to occur in the coming months.

Neil Bainbridge, Ashcox & Stone:

Why is it slowing down? The key factor in this is uncertainty and it's slowing in some areas and not others. In Swindon, we were looking at six per cent average growth in 2016 in house sales, this year it's predicted to be around four per cent but we are only in March. So far, we've had a strong start to the year and that shows no signs of slowing down. I suspect we will be between five to six per cent by the end of the year.

We have to remember that our economy's growth is consumer led and consumer confidence is attached to our love of property and if people stop having that confidence, spending will slow, credit will slow and consequently growth will slow. it's a fragile position we are in when our economy's growth relies on the confidence of the average consumer.

Things could start slowing as people take stock and think, "if I don't sell my house or buy a new home this year, what's the market going to be like next year? Am I better off sitting tight?" Will they wait for decisions regarding Brexit, interest rates and a wealth of other economic uncertainties?

As a non-Londoner, it seems to me that that market is still very much an 'anomaly' with outside investors with strong currencies against the pound, being able to buy more for their money. However, uncertainty over Brexit may cause those people to think twice before rushing to buy that investment property if concerns over jobs being relocated overseas are realised.

Less of an impact but still one to watch is the trans-Atlantic effect of the American dollar as they consider a rise in interest rates in the USA and that's likely to have a knock-on effect on economies around the world, including here in the UK.  Interest rates in the UK are likely to rise at the end of 2017, beginning of 2018 to counteract the inevitable rise in inflation, caused by the increase in food and fuel prices that we are already beginning to see. These are the sorts of headline costs that most affect consumer confidence.

Another factor to bear in mind is the massive effort by the government to put the brakes on the buy-to-let market which is causing a huge number of potential landlords or investors to avoid investing in the property market. But that's a whole other debate.

Professor Ivan Paya, Lancaster University Management School:

The results of our forecasts suggest that house prices in the national and all regional property markets will grow this year. For the UK national market, the considered forecasting models predict a slowdown in the rate of house price inflation to 3.5% in 2017 (we note that the value of the corresponding statistic in 2016 was 4.4%). Although house prices are expected to grow at a lower rate than last year, the two main factors responsible for the positive forecasted growth in the housing market are (i) the sound domestic economic conditions (mainly a healthy growth rate of consumption), and (ii) the fall in the real mortgage rate (mainly due to the recent rise in inflation rate). At the same time, we note a slight reduction in the number of housing starts in the past year, which can also explain the continued positive trend in the national property prices.

When it comes to the regional housing markets, the predicted patterns of property price behaviour vary across regions. We note that expectation about the future interest rate increases, which is an important determinant of housing dynamics in London but not in the other regional markets, is the key factor that puts a downward pressure on the house price growth in this region. On the other hand, we note a small decrease in the ratio of property prices to personal income in the last quarter for the first time since the early 2013. This measure is an indicator of housing affordability, and it has been gradually deteriorating until the third quarter of 2016, when the ratio of prices to income reached its historical maximum. The improvement in housing affordability together with the fall in the real mortgage rate and the sluggish supply of housing are all factors responsible for continued growth in London property prices. According to the forecasting results, housing inflation in London will slow down in the first quarters of 2017, but the growth in property prices is predicted to build up towards the end of the year. Overall, the forecasts indicate a 3.9% growth in London property prices in the course of 2017.

The forecasts predict a similar pattern of house price behaviour in the regions contiguous to London, including Outer Metropolitan, Outer South East and South West. We note that the property market of East Anglia, which is currently growing faster than any other regional market of the country, is predicted to slow down in 2017, but still remain the market with the highest housing inflation (the forecasts suggest that house prices in this region will grow by 5.7% over the year). We see deterioration in housing affordability in all these regional property markets: the ratios of house prices to households’ disposable income are at or close to their historical maxima.

Charles Fletcher, Head of Analysis, Cogress:

The news is not particularly surprising when you consider the series of unprecedented events over the past twelve months that have rocked the UK economy and property market. From the stamp duty changes, to rising inflation rates squeezing consumer-spending power, and the shocking referendum results in the UK, a house price slowdown amidst such economic uncertainty was effectively inevitable.

With that said, property values are still 5.1% higher than they were at the same time last year. Even though the growth rate is slowing, a shortage in supply of both new homes and existing properties will continue to lift UK house prices. Meanwhile, demand for housing is being supported by an economy that continues to perform well with employment still expanding.

Over the next few months, we expect that the UK’s financial resilience will be reflected in the property market. Although prices and transaction levels in prime central London areas like Chelsea and Kensington may keep dropping, this will be offset by properties valued below £1,000,000, which are still trading well. This trend towards more affordable properties is indicative of mounting consumer caution over major spending decisions and the difference between one’s ‘need’ for property and one’s ‘want’ for property. The large disparity between supply and demand for property across the country means that competition will remain fierce for properties at the more affordable end of the market, even against Brexit’s uncertainty. Which means that cities such as Manchester, Bristol and Leeds will continue to benefit from ongoing tenant demand.

While issues of affordability will remain top-of-mind for many UK consumers and first-time buyers, falling house prices in central London represent an opportunity for foreign buyers. Many central London estate agents have been reporting that a large portion of their applicants are $-based buyers hoping to take advantage of currency fluctuations to invest in valuable long-term property assets.

Despite predictions of a price crash, we expect that house prices will continue to grow at a stable rate over the next few months. This is as a result of the country’s sound economic conditions and a resilient property market that can withstand any potential volatility Brexit brings.

Gavriel Merkado, Founder & CEO, REalyse:

The recent announcement that the UK housing market has slowed to its lowest pace in three and a half years was not a surprise. The UK market has experienced a period of instability, with an imbalance in supply and demand leading to properties becoming overpriced. If you pair this with the low interest rates the UK has been experiencing and the relative ease of access to debt finance, you are left with a market that is unaffordable for the masses.

Over the past year, the government has been instructed that to help solve the housing crisis 300,000 more homes must be built in England alone, year-on-year. Despite this goal, we are still experiencing low levels of housebuilding and development, which have subsequently added to high prices. Therefore, it appears that a key reason for the slowdown is affordability.

It will be interesting to see the impact this shift has on the market over the next few months. We have already endured a period of uncertainty following the Brexit vote, and while the initial shock period is calming, implications are still far reaching. Brexit may well lead to an increase in inflation, with the Bank of England forced into increasing interest rates, which in turn may put pressure on the purchasing market.

There is also the impact of movement of EU migrants to consider, with many of them residing in the UK expecting to return home in the lead-up to Brexit. If this does prove to be the case, we may experience a drop in demand for rental property, which in turn could balance out the demand for buying property.

Investors and developers should monitor the situation closely, as we are already noticing a shift in the patterns of growth and decline. Central areas, such as London and Manchester, that were previously viewed as overpriced, could experience a stabilisation in prices, whilst some regional cities and suburban areas, such as Cambridge, could continue to rise in price. Other socio-economic factors, such as the development of the high-speed rail links may also lead to the increase in value of other regional towns and cities.

We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!

Giving up "modern day luxuries" for one year could save you over £5,000 towards a deposit for a house, new research from online estate agent Hatched, has found.

With research suggesting that you need, on average, £33,000 for a deposit on a house in the UK, people are increasingly starting to really crunch the numbers, budget and save the pennies wherever possible.

By focussing on eight "modern day luxuries", the team at Hatched have looked at simple savings that could be made to get a bit of extra cash in the piggy bank, helping people get a foot onto the property ladder through some choice (but relatively easy) lifestyle changes.

The eight "luxuries" include: morning coffee fix; weekly treat meal out; a gym membership; body "maintenance" treatments; summer holiday abroad; nights out on the town with friends; a smartphone contract; and monthly cinema trips.

If you can abstain from all eight examples of these "luxuries" at once, you would save an impressive £5,433.30 in a year. If you can keep this up, in six years you could have saved almost enough for a deposit (£32,599.80), without needing any other savings at all.

If you rely on that first sip of your morning coffee from a branded paper cup in order to start your 9-5, over a one-year period you will have consumed approximately 250 coffees, at a calculated cost of over £680 - so the potential savings to be had by bringing your own (or giving up altogether) are quite the buzz.

If you really can't quit your coffee habit, just think of it like this – after 12,223 coffees you will have spent the equivalent of a deposit on a house.

But, interestingly, this wasn't the biggest potential saving to be had out of all of the examples we reviewed. Calculations suggest that by forgoing fortnightly nights out, you could save an eye-watering £1,403.52 over 12 months, which might be incentive enough to suggest a night-in instead of painting the town red next time you arrange to see your friends.

Other indulgences that can be cut out to help you on to the property ladder include:

Adam Day, Managing Director at Hatched, commented on the findings: “The formula, in essence, is simple – spend less and save more – but we know this can be easier said than done. By consciously cutting out things that you don't need, you can substantially add to your pot of savings towards a deposit on a new home.

"In isolation, these specific sacrifices won't be enough, and so you'd have to be committed and willing to cut out multiple luxuries to make a real impact. But remember - when it comes to saving for a deposit on a house, making sure to put a chunk from your pay-check into a savings account each month is still as important as it ever was.

"This amount of lifestyle changes that we are suggesting might be difficult for some people to implement in their everyday lives, but it's only a short-term sacrifice in the long run, and if you're looking to buy a property with another person, say a partner, then you can get to your goal twice as quick.

“With our advice, prospective homeowners can sooner be in better financial positions to get themselves onto the property ladder. As they say, 'Look after the pennies, and the pounds will look after themselves'. A mantra to stick by, if you ask us..."

(Source: Hatched)

Here Professor of Urban & Property Economics at Henley Business School, Michael Ball gives his own thoughts on the current real estate market slowdown in the UK, and presents his expectations for the remainder of 2017.

2017 could well be the year when the UK housing market hits one of its periodic turning points after a sustained five-year run of 5 to 10% annual price rises and an up-coming ten-year anniversary since the last crash. Price averages, of course, belie much greater rises in places like London and the South East. Indications of a slowing market abound, particularly with respect to prices and time on the market. Many rightly attribute the slowdown to affordability factors following such strong price growth. Optimistically, that could lead to a less frenetic market with government homeowner initiatives sustaining the expansion in new build. Nonetheless, digging beneath the headlines suggests that many drivers of recent housing market expansion are no longer humming so positively.

Market-wise, Inner London often leads the way and news from there has been bleak for some time and not just at the top of the market. So, Rightmove’s report of a 15% price drop in Kensington and Chelsea for 2016 may indicate lost froth at the top but also raises wider concerns.

The biggest change is the falling away of overseas investment. Uncertainty over the pound plus capital and credit constraints in places like China have all contributed but home-grown factors have played a key part. Though stamp-duty rises are often blamed, some classic bubble features seem to be unwinding, especially in London, related to over-supply and mis-pricing, the super-hyping of neighbourhoods and over-estimates of the long-term demand for small ‘luxury’ accommodation. Chastened investors may take quite some time to return. This is of broader importance because experience following the financial crisis suggests that international activity has wider impacts on the market and sentiment.

Nationally, classic market drivers are turning negative. Earnings have been rising ahead of inflation but forecasts suggest this trend is coming to an end. Moderation in real earnings growth not only dampens house purchase and trading up but it also limits the potential for rent increases, depressing landlord returns.

On the mortgage front, some rise in interest rates is in the offing. Though interest rate rises are likely to be limited in the near future, they may currently have a disproportionate effect on the housing market as affordability is so stretched. Cautious lenders if they fear rising default rates may add higher risk premiums to mortgage rates and restrict lending as well.

Landlords are now major holders and purchasers of homes. They face the prospect of a rising tax burden as relief on some expenses is withdrawn and mortgage interest write-offs gradually limited. Moreover, if the Government’s stated aim of drastically reducing immigration has any effect, landlords will lose a key source of new demand. Poor prospects for rents and tenant demand combined with rising costs and taxes could create a depressing scissors effect on landlord returns, significantly discouraging investment.

Expectations matter and can suddenly switch. That Britain has a housing shortage has clearly been absorbed by home owners and investors alike. But there is a danger of thinking of demand as purely population driven and so always there, whereas it is incomes and affordability that count far more. Variations in them, combined with tight supply, make the UK’s housing market particularly prone to sharp price swings.

Counter to all this gloom is the prospect that an improving global economy may lift the UK and its housing market with it. Nevertheless, the balance of risks is shifting towards the downside. So, forecast-wise, this year may turn out fine but clouds abound and are likely to thicken as the year progresses.

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