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As anticipation for President Donald J. Trump's first budget release in the next few weeks reaches a crescendo, there is much debate about whether cutting the deficit should be a priority for the administration. Apparently most American voters think it should be. In a unique survey in which respondents made up their own Federal budget, majorities proposed a combination of spending cuts and revenue increases that would reduce the deficit for 2018 by at least $211 billion. There were partisan differences, but Republicans and Democrats did agree on $86 billion in deficit reductions.

In the survey, which was conducted by the University of Maryland's Program for Public Consultation (PPC), a representative sample of 1,817 voters were presented discretionary spending for FY 2017 (broken into 31 line items), and sources of general revenues, actual and proposed. They were then given the opportunity to modify both spending and revenues, getting feedback as they went along about the effect of their choices on the projected deficit. Respondents were not instructed to reduce the deficit, and were able to both increase or decrease spending or revenues.

Overall, majorities cut spending a net of $57 billion. While both Democratic and Republican members of Congress are planning for increases in spending on national defense for 2018, this was the area that received the biggest cut from the public-- majorities cut it by $39 billion. Other significant cuts were for subsidies to agricultural corporations ($5 billion), intelligence agencies ($4 billion), homeland security ($2 billion), the State Department ($2 billion) and the space program ($2 billion), plus smaller trims in other areas. The one area to be increased was the development of alternative energy and energy efficiency, which was increased by $2 billion (a 100% increase).

The biggest changes, though, were on the revenue side, which were increased a total of $154.2 billion. The biggest source of revenues ($63.3 billion) arose from increases in personal income taxes for higher earners. Those with incomes over $100,000 saw their taxes go up 5%, while those with incomes over $1 million had increases of 10%.

"Clearly Americans are concerned about the deficit and are ready to make some tough choices to bring it down—more than Congress is even ready to consider," said PPC Director Steven Kull.

Other major increases came from an increase in taxes on capital gains and dividends from 23.8% to 28% ($22 billion), a new transaction fee on financial transactions of 0.01% ($20 billion), a 5% increase on corporate taxes ($17 billion), a tax on sugary drinks of $.05 an ounce ($9 billion), an increase in the estate tax ($7.8 billion), a tax on alcohol ($7 billion), a fee to banks who have large amounts of uninsured debt ($6 billion), and repeal of the 'carried interest' tax break for fund managers ($2.1 billion).

There were significant partisan differences. Republicans only cut $5 billion from defense, while Democrats cut $91 billion. Republicans cut $9 billion from education, while Democrats increased it $3 billion. Republicans cut environmental spending by $6 billion, while Democrats raised it by $1 billion. Most Republicans did not join in on increases to corporate taxes, estate taxes, and taxes on sugary drinks.

Nonetheless, Democrats and Republicans did converge on $86 billion in deficit reductions, including $69.2 billion in revenue increases and $17 billion in spending cuts.

Overall, Democrats made the largest reductions to the deficit of $306.5 billion, with $96 billion in net reductions to spending and $210.5 billion in revenue increases. Republicans made total deficit reduction of $134.2 billion, with $65 billion in spending reductions and $69.2 in revenue increases.

(Source: Voice Of the People)

Mortgage rates were little changed leading up to Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement, with the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate inching lower to 4.18%, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey. The 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.22 discount and origination points.

The larger jumbo 30-year fixed was unchanged at 4.14% and the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 3.39%. Adjustable mortgage rates were slightly lower, with the 5-year ARM dipping to 3.46% and the 7-year ARM retreating to 3.62%.

While mortgage rates were little changed in the days leading up to the Fed meeting, they are actually one quarter%age point lower now than when the Fed hiked interest rates at their last meeting in March. Weakness in first quarter economic growth and geopolitical concerns surrounding North Korea, Syria, and an election in France all contributed to bringing mortgage rates lower. But with the Fed's glass-half-full economic outlook, dismissing the economic sluggishness at the beginning of the year as temporary, it is evident that the Fed remains inclined to continue raising interest rates. Mortgage rates are likely to trend higher through the balance of 2017 as interest rates rise, but as we've seen recently, there are likely to be plenty of ups and downs as economic sentiment swings back and forth.

At the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 4.18%, the monthly payment for a $200,000 loan is $975.70.

Survey results

30-year fixed: 4.18% -- down from 4.19% last week (avg. points: 0.22)

15-year fixed: 3.39% -- down from 3.43% last week (avg. points: 0.21)

5/1 ARM: 3.46% -- down from 3.48% last week (avg. points: 0.28)

(Source: Bankrate.com)

America's economy can return to the days of 3% and higher annual growth rates if Washington embraces pro-growth economic policies, concludes the latest installment of Pacific Research Institute's Beyond the New Normal series released last week.

"Nothing impacts America's economy more than government economic policy," said Dr. Wayne Winegarden, PRI Senior Fellow in Business and Economics, and co-author of Beyond the New Normal. "Reviewing 60 years of economic policies, we found that when government embraces policies that incentivize growth, our economy grows. President Trump and Congress can bring back the days of 3 and 4% annual growth by enacting a pro-growth agenda."

In Part 4 of Beyond the New Normal, Wayne Winegarden and co-author Niles Chura analyze 4 key economic turning points where changes in the economic policy mix impacted the health of the US economy (covering the periods 1958-1970, 1970-1982, 1982-2001, and 2001-2015). Following a historical review of the economic policy mix during each of these periods, Winegarden and Chura found that:

Beyond the New Normal is a multi-part study by Dr. Wayne Winegarden and Niles Chura, which makes the case that future US economic growth can meet –or exceed – past growth trends if the right economic policies are adopted.

Dr. Wayne Winegarden is a Senior Fellow in Business and Economics at Pacific Research Institute. He is also the Principal of Capitol Economic Advisors and a Managing Editor for EconoSTATS. Niles Chura is the founder of Ouray Capital.

(Source: Pacific Research Institute)

Trump administration recently announced plans to expand offshore oil drilling in US waters, threatening recreation, tourism, fishing and other coastal industries, which provide more than 1.4 million jobs and $95 billion GDP along the Atlantic coast alone. The executive order directs the Interior Department to develop a new five-year oil and gas leasing program to consider new areas for offshore drilling. The order also blocks the creation of new national marine sanctuaries and orders a review of all existing sanctuaries and marine monuments designated or expanded in the past ten years.

"Our ocean, waves and beaches are vital recreational, economic and ecological treasures that would be polluted by an increase in offshore oil drilling, regardless of whether or not there is a spill," said Dr. Chad Nelsen, CEO of the Surfrider Foundation. "With today's action, the Trump administration is putting the interests of the oil and gas lobby over the hundreds of communities, thousands of businesses, and millions of citizens who rely on the ocean and coasts for their jobs and livelihoods."

New offshore drilling would threaten thousands of miles of coastline and billions in GDP, for a relatively small amount of oil. Ocean tourism and recreation, worth an estimated $100 billion annually nationwide, provides 12 times the amount of jobs to the US economy, compared to offshore oil production. Even under the best-case scenario, America's offshore oil reserves would provide only about 920 days, or 18 months supply of oil at our current rate of consumption, according to federal agency estimates.

"Tourism drives our local economy, and the approval of offshore drilling poses a huge threat to the livelihood and quality of life in our beach community," said Nicole D.C. Kienlen, Tourism Director of Bradley Beach, New Jersey. "The effects would be devastating on multiple levels."

Even when there are no accidents, offshore oil drilling seriously pollutes our water and food supply at every stage. The ground penetration, the drilling, the rigs, and the transportation tankers all release toxic chemicals and leaked oil. The standard process of drilling releases thousands of gallons of polluted water into the ocean. High concentrations of metals have been found around drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and have been shown to accumulate in fish, mussels and other seafood.

"The Trump administration wants to pour money in to a sinking ship with relatively small return, instead of supporting growth industries like coastal tourism and renewable energy that are adding jobs to our economy," said Pete Stauffer, Environmental Director for the Surfrider Foundation. "We will stand up for what's best for the nation, and our oceans, by fighting new offshore drilling off our coasts."

(Source: Surfrider Foundation)

Florida Atlantic University College of Business has launched a new Center for Forensic Accounting, which will develop and disseminate knowledge on this growing area of study to students, government and the business community.

The Center is one of the first in the country and the only one in Florida to focus on forensic accounting, a field that generally employs a mix of accounting, auditing and investigation to scrutinize financial information and other forms of evidence to provide analysis to courts of law, corporations and others. Michael Crain, D.B.A., is the Center's director and an FAU faculty member since 2008. He has more than 30 years of experience as a practicing certified public accountant specializing in forensic accounting, economic damages and business valuation.

"In addition to education and outreach, one of the missions of the Center is to develop knowledge in forensic accounting and fraud detection and prevention," said Crain. "We're engaging with people who are directly responsible for regulating, detecting and reducing financial fraud and misrepresentation."

The Center recently held a joint two-day conference with the US Treasury Department on the "Forensic Accounting and the Bank Secrecy Act," which attracted participants from the banking industry, forensic accounting, certified fraud examiners and law enforcement from the federal, state and local levels.

FAU has the oldest forensic accounting concentration within a Master of Accounting degree program in the United States. The College of Business currently offers a Masters of Accounting with three different concentrations related to forensic accounting, including in digital accounting forensics and data analytics first offered in fall 2016, and a concentration in business valuation that was added several years earlier. FAU's School of Accounting Executive Programs offers these concentrations as two-year traditional in-person and online degree programs.

"Our School of Accounting is one of the largest in Florida and we support the development in this vital area of accounting that can help so many people," said George Young, Ph.D., director of FAU's School of Accounting.

The median compensation for forensic accountants with certification in the United States is $105,000, according to a 2015-16 global salary study by the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners. Forensic accounting and related fields in fraud and litigation support have been among the top niches in accounting firms in recent years, Crain said.

(Source: Florida Atlantic University College of Business)

Silicon Valley's Tesla overtook GM as the most valuable carmaker in the United States last week said Toronto Sumitomo Trading International.

Modern technology is working its way into our lives and infiltrating every aspect of our daily routines, automobile industry is no exception, the increased reliance on software and renewable energy paved the way for Tesla to climb to the top of the industry and claim the title, the biggest carmaker in the United States by market capitalization.

Tesla's stock price hit 312.39 dollars Toronto Sumitomo Trading International analysts upgraded its stock from neutral to overweight and upgraded the price target. Tesla's stock price jumped to all-time highs increasing 3.26% from the previous week's close.

"The company now is valued at 50.887 billion dollars beating GM by one million dollars, something will lead to an interesting discussion when the two Chief Executive Officers meet at the white house with president Trump to discuss the tax reforms and infra structure" said Daniel Holland, Director of Corporate Equities at Toronto Sumitomo Trading International.

Toronto Sumitomo Trading International Research showed that considering the number of cars Tesla sold last year, its market capitalization now will be equivalent to 667,000 dollars for each car sold, or looking forward it will 102,000 dollars for every car Musk plans to sell in 2018. On the other hand, GM's market capitalization is equivalent to 5,000 dollars for each car sold in 2016. This offers a great insight into consumer trust in technology.

Tesla's stock price has increased by 35% over the last month aided by investors' trust in Elon Musk's plans to revolutionize both the energy and the automobile industries. Meanwhile, General Motors' stock price has been declining in the past few years.

Tesla's advocates believe the lose making company's price is justifiable based on long-term outlook, arguing its acquisition of SolarCity and building the new battery cell plant will drive production costs lower.

"Tesla's valuation as a car company is unrealistic, but if we look at it as a battery company which can expand and innovate, the valuation might work" said Michael Hudson, Head of Mergers and Acquisitions at Toronto Sumitomo Trading International.

Many skeptics believe that Tesla is overvalued and its highly inflated stock price has made it a target for short sellers who bagged a valuation loss of 2 billion dollars so far in their portfolios.

(Source: Toronto Sumitomo Trading International)

65% of Americans are losing sleep because of money, according to a new CreditCards.com report. The most common worry – expressed by 38% of Americans – is health care or insurance bills. 37% lie awake fretting about saving enough for retirement, 34% because of educational expenses, 26% over mortgage/rent bills and 22% due to credit card debt. Click here for more information:

Health care and educational expenses are the only categories in worse shape now than during the Great Recession. Concerns over health care costs have spiked over the past year (up nine percentage points).

In 2007, just prior to the recession, 56% of Americans said they were losing sleep over one of these five topics. During the recession (2009), the figure jumped to 69%. It fell to 62% each of the past two years and ticked up to 65% this year.

Gen Xers are the most concerned about health care expenditures and saving for retirement. Millennials are the most fearful about outlays for education, housing and credit card debt. These issues are cutting into the slumbers of 73% of Gen Xers, 71% of millennials, 59% of Baby Boomers and 48% of the Silent Generation.

People who are losing sleep over money aren't taking it lying down: 82% reported taking at least one step to improve their financial situation over the past year versus 54% of those who aren't losing sleep. The most common action the insomniacs took was to reduce expenses, followed by selling something, signing up for a new credit card and taking on a second job.

"People lose sleep when things feel out of control," said Matt Schulz, CreditCards.com's senior industry analyst. "Take back some of that control by taking action. Even small moves like making a budget, selling something of value or trimming expenses can make you feel empowered and help you sleep more peacefully at night."

(Source: CreditCards.com)

The housing and neighborhood location choices of immigrants will have a significant impact on urban growth in the US for decades to come, particularly as more foreign-born residents seek to own homes in suburban communities, according to new research from the Urban Land Institute's Terwilliger Center for Housing. Homebuilders and developers who can deliver the housing options immigrants want and need stand to benefit in the years to come.

Home in America: Immigrants and Housing Demand examines the influence of immigrants in shaping urban growth patterns, particularly those who have entered the US since the Great Recession (since 2010, the number of immigrants from Asia has surpassed those from Latin America). "Immigrants have helped stabilize and strengthen the housing market throughout the recovery," said Terwilliger Center Executive Director Stockton Williams. "Immigrants' housing purchasing power and preferences are significant economic assets for metropolitan regions across the country. This suggests the potential for much more growth attributable to foreign-born residents in the years ahead," he added.

Among the key findings from the report:

The findings in Home in America are drawn in part from analyses of the housing and neighborhood preferences of immigrants in five metropolitan areas that represent different types of immigrant gateways:

Home in America notes that foreign-born population growth in most of gateways outpaced overall population growth between 2006 and 2014 (the time period from just prior to the housing market collapse through the housing rally). Emerging gateways, which experienced strong overall population growth, were the only exception. The report also looks at the neighborhood choices of immigrants within the five metro areas, focusing on five categories of suburbs (typologies developed for ULI by RCLCO):

The differences in where immigrants are locating in the five cities is an indicator of how they could influence future growth within these markets, the report says. In San Francisco, immigrants are spread across nearly all types of suburban communities, with the highestpercentage, 35%, living in economically challenged neighborhoods. In Houston, the largest share of immigrants, 39%, live in stable middle-income suburbs, followed by 29% in economically challenged suburbs. In Buffalo, 30% live in established high-end suburbs (a greater share than the native-born population) and 27% live in urban neighborhoods. In Minneapolis, the highestpercentage, 32%, live in economically challenged suburbs, followed by 27% in stable middle-income suburbs. In Charlotte, 27% live in economically challenged suburbs. Nineteen% live in stable-income suburbs and an additional 19% live in established high-end suburbs.

Home in America points out that the presence of immigrants could help boost revitalization in economically challenged suburbs; sustain the success of stable middle-income suburbs; and contribute to the growth and diversity of established high-end suburbs. "If recent shifts in immigration flows continue, an increase in higher-income immigrants – including rising numbers from China and India – could accelerate the demand for homeownership among the foreign-born population," the report says. "Without sustained immigration, the housing market could weaken and in many markets the impact could be dramatic."

(Source: Urban Land Institute)

The latest Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) from ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA (Institute of Management Accountants) released last week shows economic confidence rebounding in the first quarter of 2017, an improvement driven by the US where investors are hopeful that a combination of fiscal reform, increased investment in infrastructure and deregulation will provide a boost to economic growth.

The report is the largest regular economic survey of accountants around the world, and noted business conference at its highest level since the second quarter of 2015. Though driven by the US, the improvement in confidence was widespread, with most countries and regions, including Western Europe, Asia Pacific, and Central and Eastern Europe showing improvements.

The survey of finance professionals and business leaders worldwide noted that Q1 2017 displayed the fastest rate of growth in global trade since 2015. The survey found that the biggest concern for companies over the past three months was increased costs (a problem for 46% of respondents), consistent with rising headline inflation rates in many parts of the developed and developing worlds. Despite this there are significant improvements for employment and investment, with 22% of firms planning to create more jobs and raise capital expenditure (up from 16% and 14% respectively in Q4 2016).

"The rise in confidence, combined with strong economic hard data, offers genuinely encouraging signs for the global economy: with an increasingly optimistic mood in the US and a stimulus-led recovery in China driving prospects for world trade," said Faye Chua, head of business insights at ACCA. "This strong start to the year has taken place against a backdrop of potential threats facing the world economy at the start of 2017."

Added Raef Lawson, executive vice president at IMA: "The US economy has maintained an elevated level of confidence from Q4 in 2016, with 37% of firms feeling more confident, although there was no uplift from the previous quarter. An expectation of increased infrastructural spending and tax cuts has contributed to a buoyant business mood even though they are yet to materialise into policy."

However, Mr. Lawson continued: "Inflation and currency fluctuations, however, are a cause for concern. 43% of US firms are troubled by rising costs, and 22% by exchange rate movements. Despite the Fed's interest rate hikes, borrowing costs in the developing world remain low, and the dollar is likely to continue growing in value. That could pose a challenge to US firms' competitiveness, and the White House's determination to reduce the trade deficit."

The survey found that in the United States, confidence remained flat but elevated; in Q1 2017, 37% of respondents were more confident about the future, compared with 24% who were less confident. This buoyant overall level of confidence comes on the back of a surging stock market, which has risen to record highs on the back of confidence that a fiscal stimulus and wave of deregulation will provide a boost to economic growth.

US respondents reported confidence that a big increase in government spending is on the way. Other components of the GECS – government spending, capital spending, and employment – also rose in the first quarter. The main concern for US companies is rising costs—cited by 43% of respondents—which is consistent with a recent, sharp rise in inflation and wages as the US economy moves closer to full capacity.

The negative impact of exchange-rate movements (cited by 22% of respondents) was another concern. US interest rates are set to rise this year, but borrowing costs in the rest of the developed world are likely to remain very low, so, the survey noted, it's possible that the US dollar will appreciate in the coming months; this will erode the competitiveness of US-based companies.

GECS is the largest regular economic survey of accountants around the world. Fieldwork for the Q1 2017 GECS took place between February 24 and March 13, 2017 and attracted 1,334 responses from ACCA and IMA members around the world, including more than 150 CFOs.

(Source: ACCA)

Mortgage rates in the US were only slightly changed this week, with the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate inching higher to 4.30%, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey. The 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.26 discount and origination points.

The larger jumbo 30-year fixed also nosed higher, to 4.23%, while the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate held steady at 3.49%. Adjustable mortgage rates were also subdued, with the 7-year ARM holding at 3.68% and the 10-year ARM slipping to 3.85%.

Mortgage rates were in a holding pattern, along with seemingly everyone and everything else as legislative gridlock in Washington reasserted itself. Skepticism in financial markets has increased about the ability for meaningful tax reform or infrastructure spending to materialize in the near term, holding bond yields and mortgage rates in check. Mortgage rates are closely related to yields on long-term government bonds. But the continued trend of solid economic data could begin to offset this and push mortgage rates higher in the week ahead.

At the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 4.30%, the monthly payment for a $200,000 loan is $989.74.

Survey results

30-year fixed: 4.30% -- up from 4.29% last week (avg. points: 0.26)

15-year fixed: 3.49% -- unchanged from last week (avg. points: 0.22)

5/1 ARM: 3.49% -- up from 3.44% last week (avg. points: 0.29)

The survey is complemented by Bankrate's weekly Rate Trend Index, in which a panel of mortgage experts predicts which way the rates are headed over the next seven days. The majority of panelists, 64%, expect mortgage rates to remain more or less unchanged in the coming week. The remainder are evenly split, with 18% predicting an increase and 18% forecasting a decline in mortgage rates over the next week.

(Source: Bankrate.com)

According to the annual Business Pulse Survey by SunTrust Banks, Inc., nearly two-thirds of business leaders expect the global and US economy to improve through 2017. Even more optimistic about their own companies, as 75% of middle market (annual revenue of $10-150 million) and small business (annual revenue of $2-10 million) leaders feel their business outlook is strong. Both segments have high expectations for healthcare (46%) and tax reform (44%) as a catalyst for growth. Mid-market leaders also cite reducing regulations (39%) and investments in infrastructure (37%) as ways to spur business momentum.

"This year, business leaders are feeling very prepared to take advantage of growth opportunities, 75% believe they have access to the critical capital needed," said Allison Dukes, Commercial and Business Banking executive at SunTrust. "Three out of four have a goal-setting process linked to long-term growth strategies and are comfortable that they will achieve their goals."

In 2017, the short term priority for 31% of mid-market companies is profitability, a 29% increase since 2016; while 34% of small businesses are focused on revenue, a 54% increase from last year.

Looking out five years, introducing a new product or service is still the top long-term strategy to stimulate growth for both mid-market (40%) and small business leaders (31%), while making a major capital investment (31%) and acquiring another company (17%) is a greater priority for the mid-market. To undertake these initiatives, common strategies include using cash on hand, reducing costs, obtaining a bank loan and reinvesting corporate earnings.

"Over the past four years, businesses in the small and mid-markets have taken incremental steps toward growing their companies, including M&A, hiring, and improving cash flow. At SunTrust, our purpose is to Light the Way to Financial Well-Being for our clients, and we have been working with them to ensure they have the tools and capabilities to grow their business in a smart way. Now, they see an opportunity for significant structural changes in taxes and regulations to unleash additional business growth," added Dukes.

Decision-makers representing more than 500 small and mid-size businesses participated in the SunTrust/Radius Global Market Research survey. Survey results have a maximum margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points at a 90% confidence level.

(Source: SunTrust Banks, Inc.)

Growth expectations for 2017 remain subject to both upside and downside risks from potential policy changes as the Federal Reserve considers raising interest rates for the second time in three months, according to the Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group's March 2017 Economic and Housing Outlook. Full-year economic growth is projected at 2.0 percent, unchanged from last month, while the forecast for current quarter growth is down slightly due to weaker-than-expected consumer spending data. Still, general business and economic sentiment remain strong despite policy uncertainty.

Thanks to rising household net worth and healthy jobs data, consumer spending should remain the primary driver of growth. A pickup in the Fed's favoured measure of inflation in January supported several Fed officials' hawkish speeches, which led the market to fully price in a rate hike at the conclusion of the Fed meeting later today. The ESR Group expects today's target rate increase to be followed by two additional hikes in the second half of the year. Home sales should continue to improve this year despite affordability challenges, including continued strong home price appreciation due to scarce inventory.

"Our economic forecast remains in a conservative holding pattern as we await word on the particulars of the new Administration's plans for fiscal stimulus," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. "In the meantime, economic sentiment from most industry stakeholders continues to reach new heights: consumers, as demonstrated by our National Housing Survey, are more positive than at any time since the survey's inception in 2010 about the direction of the economy, while homebuilders' optimism remains near an eleven-year high."

"Tight inventory remains a boon to home prices and Americans' net worth, but it also continues to price out many would-be first-time homebuyers. However, our research suggests that aging millennials, now boasting higher real wages, are beginning to narrow the homeownership attainment gap," said Duncan.

(Source: Fannie Mae)

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