Record in sight: S&P 500 roars toward all-time high as Wall Street turns feverish.
A Near Miss from Market History
The S&P 500 is closing in fast on uncharted territory. After rallying another 0.55% Tuesday to finish at 6,038.81, the index now sits less than 2% below its all-time high of 6,144.15, last set in February. It’s a remarkable comeback for a market that just eight weeks ago was staring down the edge of a bear phase. Since bottoming at 4,982.77 in early April, the S&P has staged a blistering 20% rebound—surprising even some of Wall Street’s most seasoned bulls.
Tuesday’s gains weren’t isolated. The Dow added 105 points to close at 42,866.87, and the Nasdaq pushed higher as well, ending the day up 0.63%. Market sentiment has shifted rapidly, with CNN’s Fear & Greed Index rising to 63.7—firmly in “Greed” territory. Traders are no longer just cautiously optimistic. They’re chasing upside.
Trade Talks Light the Fuse
Much of the momentum is tied to trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Held this week in London, the talks appear to have opened doors. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described discussions as “fruitful,” and President Trump said he’s receiving “good reports.” It’s not clear yet what compromises are on the table, but reports suggest the U.S. may soften certain export restrictions if China increases access to critical rare-earth supplies.
Markets are cheering even small signs of progress. After months of uncertainty, just the perception of de-escalation is enough to keep the rally fueled. Investors are betting that this time, the rhetoric may finally turn into something real—and tradable.
Earnings Heat and Optimism on Main Street
Economic data has also helped turn the tide. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 98.8 in May—beating forecasts and marking a sharp improvement from April’s reading of 95.8. That’s a key pulse check on Main Street sentiment, and it suggests small business owners are increasingly confident in the near-term economy.
On the corporate side, Casey’s General Stores gave bulls something to cheer about. The company beat earnings expectations and hiked its dividend, sending shares soaring more than 11%. With earnings from Oracle, Chewy, and Victoria’s Secret now on deck, investors are watching closely to see if the momentum will carry into other sectors.
Can the Market Hold the Line?
Big banks are scrambling to revise their outlooks. Goldman Sachs now sees the S&P hitting 6,100 before year’s end. Deutsche Bank is even more bullish, forecasting 6,550. JPMorgan also reversed its stance, lifting its target back to 6,000 after previously cutting it. Deutsche’s analysts say tariff drag is now only a third of what they had originally projected—a major shift that’s fueling institutional buying.
Still, not everyone is convinced this is a clean breakout. Sam Stovall of CFRA warns that while a new high would end the correction officially, historical data shows that gains after such moments aren’t always guaranteed. Typically, the S&P climbs around 10% in the 127 days following a correction’s end—but the road can be choppy.
And there's still one major test ahead: May’s CPI inflation report. If inflation comes in cool, the Fed may have more room to stay patient, and the rally could accelerate. But if the numbers run hot, it could reset the market’s entire thesis. Add the possibility of trade talks stalling or geopolitical risk flashing up again, and the path forward suddenly looks less certain.
For now, though, all eyes are locked on one number: 6,144.15. Whether the market clears that hurdle—or stumbles just short—will likely define the tone of summer trading. And either way, Wall Street isn’t looking away.
