Nvidia’s $100 Billion Power Play: HSBC Says “Buy,” Critics Warn of an AI Energy Meltdown

Nvidia’s $100 Billion Power Play: HSBC Says “Buy,” Critics Warn of an AI Energy Meltdown

Nvidia’s stock is back in rally mode — up over 2% in early trading — after HSBC upgraded NVDA to a “Buy” and raised its target to $320, betting on unstoppable AI chip demand. But behind the euphoria, a darker question is surfacing: can the world actually power Nvidia’s $100 billion AI dream?

HSBC analyst Frank Lee told investors he sees “continuous earnings growth” for Nvidia as its chips move beyond Big Tech giants and into OpenAI, CoreWeave, and a growing web of sovereign AI projects across the U.S. and abroad. That growth, he said, could create as much as $400 billion in cumulative revenue for Nvidia — a staggering figure that cements its dominance in the AI hardware market.

What Is Nvidia’s $100 Billion OpenAI Deal?

Nvidia’s $100 billion OpenAI deal is a landmark investment to build massive new AI data centers running on Nvidia’s own GPUs. In simple terms, Nvidia is funding the creation of supercomputing hubs for OpenAI — and then selling those same facilities the chips to make them run. It’s both an investment and a guaranteed sales pipeline.

Under the agreement, OpenAI will deploy 10 gigawatts of computing capacity, equal to roughly 4–5 million Nvidia GPUs, to train and run next-generation ChatGPT models. CEO Jensen Huang called it “monumental in size” and “additive to all existing contracts.”

In plain English: Nvidia is financing the world’s most powerful AI systems — and selling itself the parts.

Wall Street Turns Greedy: Price Targets Surge

The OpenAI pact has triggered a chain reaction on Wall Street.

• Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $210, calling the deal “strategically transformative.”

• Evercore ISI boosted its target to $225, naming Nvidia its Top AI Stock Pick for 2025.

• HSBC’s aggressive $320 call marks one of the boldest predictions yet — signaling faith that Nvidia will outgrow every rival in AI hardware and networking.

All major analysts agree on one point: the GPU maker’s total addressable market (TAM) is exploding beyond hyperscalers, with AI infrastructure now being built by startups, governments, and global investor consortiums.

The Dark Side of the AI Power Race

While investors cheer, energy and policy experts are sounding alarms. The AI data centers driving Nvidia’s growth are ravenous — collectively demanding more electricity than some small nations. Citi estimates that OpenAI’s AI infrastructure spending could hit $1.3 trillion by 2030, while the U.S. energy grid faces “critical strain” unless major upgrades begin within two years.

A White House energy advisor privately warned that “AI may become the new oil crisis,” as billions of dollars in new data centers threaten to overwhelm current capacity. If those concerns materialize, Nvidia’s seemingly unstoppable rise could collide with hard physical limits.

Strategic Moves and Global Power Plays

Adding to the intrigue, Nvidia has joined the Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Partnership (AIP) — an alliance including BlackRock, Microsoft, UAE-based MGX, and Elon Musk’s xAI — to acquire Aligned Data Centers in a $40 billion deal. The Texas-based firm operates more than 50 campuses across the Americas, giving Nvidia yet another foothold in the AI buildout race.

Industry analysts now describe Nvidia as the “backbone of AI civilization” — a phrase that captures both admiration and unease.

Why Is Nvidia Stock Rising So Fast?

Nvidia stock is rising because investors believe its dominance in AI chips is unmatched, and every new infrastructure deal translates directly into revenue growth. With year-to-date gains of nearly 40%, Nvidia has dramatically outperformed the S&P 500, feeding a narrative that it is the only stock truly “selling shovels in the AI gold rush.”

Will Nvidia’s Growth Last?

That’s the trillion-dollar question.
If the OpenAI partnership stays on track and governments accelerate energy expansion, Nvidia’s growth could run for years. But if power shortages, regulatory hurdles, or funding bottlenecks hit, the world’s most valuable chipmaker may face its first true test.

For now, Wall Street is betting on the former — and HSBC’s $320 target suggests investors aren’t ready to turn down the voltage just yet.

FAQ: Nvidia, OpenAI and the AI Boom

Why did HSBC upgrade Nvidia stock?
Because analysts expect continuous earnings growth as Nvidia expands beyond Big Tech and secures major new deals like OpenAI’s $100 billion project.

What makes the OpenAI partnership so big?
It locks Nvidia in as the exclusive supplier of GPUs for OpenAI’s next-generation models, securing multi-year demand through 2028.

What are the main risks?
Energy shortages, global trade tensions, and high infrastructure costs that may outpace OpenAI’s actual revenue growth.

How much has Nvidia stock risen in 2025?
Up roughly 38% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500’s 15% gain.