The problem with chasing the hype
New sectors pop up fast. Too fast, sometimes. One startup goes viral, and suddenly everyone wants in. Investors dump cash. Founders rush to build. Media floods the space with buzzwords. Most of it doesn’t last.
In 2022, more than 45% of venture capital went into sectors labeled as “emerging.” That includes wellness tech, clean energy, cannabis, artificial intelligence, and next-gen consumer brands. But according to PitchBook, over 60% of those early-stage startups either pivoted or failed by the end of 2023.
People confuse a hot trend with a good opportunity. They aren’t the same.
What real opportunity looks like
A real opportunity solves a problem people care about. It might not look flashy. It might not be viral. But it fixes something broken or makes something better in a way people will pay for.
Aaron Keay has seen this up close. He backed one of Canada’s first cannabis companies before the gold rush. He exited early, before the bubble popped. He says, “It wasn’t about weed. It was about a clear gap in access, regulation, and consumer demand. The window was small, but we got in before everyone else started piling on.”
The real opportunity wasn’t cannabis. It was timing, structure, and being first with a roadmap.
Stop looking for the next “big thing”
Everyone wants to predict the next unicorn. That’s a waste of time. You don’t need to predict the future. You just need to recognize when something is quietly working.
Instead of asking, “What’s hot?” ask:
- Are customers using it without being told?
- Does it fix a daily pain point?
- Can it scale without burning cash?
- Are competitors slow or missing something obvious?
The next great company usually isn’t doing something brand-new. It’s doing something old in a much better way.
Use this checklist before entering any new market
When you spot something that looks like an opportunity, run it through this list:
- Problem clarity
Can you explain the problem in one sentence? If not, it’s too early. - User pull
Are people asking for it, or are you trying to convince them? - Fringe traction
Is there weird, scrappy growth happening on the edges? That’s a signal. - Systemic shift
Is a law, platform, or behavior changing that makes this possible now? - Simple unit economics
Can the business make money without VC money forever?
If three or more of these are yes, dig deeper. If it’s all hype, walk away.
Study who’s already winning
Don’t just look at what founders are building. Watch what scrappy users are doing. Are they hacking something together? Are they solving a need before a product exists?
Before boutique gyms like Barry’s and F45 scaled, people were stitching together circuit-style workouts on Reddit and Instagram. That early energy is what led Aaron Keay to build Kommunity Fitness.
“I saw people filming their own hybrid workouts in garages with speakers, lights, and timers,” he said. “They were creating what didn’t exist yet. All I had to do was design a version of it that made sense in a physical space.”
Follow the users. Don’t wait for a press release to tell you what’s coming.
You don’t have to be first. You have to be better.
First movers get headlines. Second movers get leverage. Look at Facebook. They weren’t the first. They just made the experience tighter, simpler, and more useful than MySpace.
Being early is risky. The first wave clears the path. Real opportunity often lives in the second or third wave, when you can learn from what didn’t work.
If you’re entering an emerging sector late, focus on:
- Better design
- Smarter distribution
- Stronger onboarding
- Clearer pricing
- Real retention
Execution wins when the space is already crowded.
Pay attention to behavior, not opinions
Trends aren’t what people say—they’re what people do. Don’t trust surveys. Don’t trust headlines. Trust how people spend time and money.
If customers are consistently choosing an unpolished solution over a polished one, ask why.
If users are paying for access to something inconvenient, fix the convenience and you win.
Behavior never lies.
Think small before thinking big
Most investors want to know how big a market can get. That’s fine. But big markets often start small.
The iPhone started with just a few key features. Shopify started with a snowboard store. Airbnb started with an air mattress and a PDF.
Start by spotting the niche that’s underserved. That’s where loyalty is built. Once you solve one small problem well, you earn the right to expand.
One founder we interviewed started a mail-order snack box just for college students who couldn't get good food during exams. He now runs a meal subscription company worth $40M.
He didn’t chase the food-tech wave. He found a crack in the system and filled it.
Use other people's blind spots
Big companies move slow. When a new sector shows up, they ignore it or underestimate it. That gives you room.
Watch what they dismiss.
A huge retailer laughed at people buying protein gummies. Two years later, niche fitness shops can’t keep them on the shelves. Now the same retailer is trying to license a version.
Spot what incumbents can’t see—or what they refuse to admit is real.
Final thoughts: Don’t follow trends, follow truths
Real opportunity doesn’t come with a trend report. It shows up in gaps, patterns, and behavior shifts.
Aaron Keay says it like this: “If something’s already obvious, the margins are gone. The best opportunities still look weird or risky when you first see them.”
The trick is to stay curious, pay attention to problems, and watch what people are already doing.
That’s how you spot the next wave—without drowning in hype.
