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Investors are rapidly losing confidence in the government’s ability to secure a good Brexit deal, according to new data from Assetz Capital’s Q3 Investor Barometer.

The peer-to-peer business lender carries out its Investor Barometer every quarter, a survey of its 29,000-strong investor community.

The Investor Barometer has tracked Brexit sentiment since the start of 2018, and as the UK’s withdrawal gets closer, confidence of a positive outcome to the negotiations has dropped. In Q3, only 10% were ‘confident’ or ‘very confident’ of a good deal. This is down from 20% in Q2 and 21% in Q1.

Conversely, the number of ‘not confident’ or ‘not at all confident’ has continued to rise. The figure hit 90% in Q3, up from 80% in Q2 and 79% in Q1.

The results come following Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond warned that a no-deal Brexit would lead to ‘large fiscal consequences’.

Stuart Law, CEO at Assetz Capital said: “Whatever optimism our investors had around the Brexit negotiations is slipping away. The view from the Assetz Capital community is that there’s significant economic pain on the horizon.

“Post-withdrawal, it will be more important than ever that the whole alternative finance industry works hard to deliver for both investors and borrowers. It’s when the economy struggles that growth capital becomes even more scarce. Peer-to-peer lenders must stand up and support the country through this Brexit uncertainty.”

(Source: Assetz Capital)

What are really the concerns, risks or benefits of incoming Brexit changes? Below Finance Monthly hears from Todd Latham, CMO & Head of Product, Currencycloud, who explains what’s truly rocking the fintech sector.

Am I the only one who has had enough of all the “Brexit is coming; the UK is doomed” headlines dominating the news?

The truth is, no one can really know what impact Brexit will have. Combine this uncertainty with the fast pace of modern business, and you might be tempted to throw your ten year plans out of the window.

Should businesses really be worried? Or are there, in fact, more pressing things to be concerned about?

The concerns

The main concern for the fintech industry post-Brexit is that the UK is going to lose its fintech crown, becoming less attractive to both business and workers. Will companies migrate their head offices to the continent? Will the world’s top talent still want to work in the UK? These are the questions keeping some of our fintech leaders awake at night. In reality, contrary to what the scaremongers would have you believe, the fintech industry in the UK is thriving, with firms attracting close to £3bn in venture capital funding in 2017. At Currencycloud, for example, we are expecting to double in size this year, and we had our first ‘billion-dollar month’ in terms of cross-border payments processed in December 2017.

Despite the rocky political times, it’s clear that the strength of fintechs means they are unlikely to be deterred. In addition, our home talent pool is impressive, and many industry essentials are exclusive to the UK. Whether it’s specialised legal firms, a friendly regulatory environment or something as basic as the time zone, there are many factors that are difficult for other nations to replicate, meaning the influx of job seekers to the UK’s fintech sector is unlikely to be affected.

But unfortunately, Brexit will not be all plain sailing. The regulatory and financial hurdles surrounding the loss of passporting will certainly result in logistical challenges for firms operating out of the UK. However, it’s important to see this as just another bump in the road for the fintech industry – no more so than previous obstacles from regulation and investment.

What is clear is that in this volatile business climate, predicting what effect Brexit will have in the future is a minefield of speculation, and ultimately, a waste of time. Instead of worrying about the what-if’s, the sector should be diverting its attention to a regulation that is affecting the industry right now: open banking.

Open banking – The fintech revolution nobody knows about

Open banking, part of the Second Payment Services Directive (PSD2) requirements, is aimed at increasing opportunity in the sector, as fintech companies can now offer traditional banking services – but with a faster, more seamless and exciting user experience.

Fintechs can provide the fresh ideas and agility the banking sector desperately needs, while capitalising on the customer trust and ability to scale the traditional institutions’ offerings. The regulation also ensures that any third party wishing to have access to customer data is subject to greater regulation in accordance to data protection laws - providing a safety net for businesses and customers.

A potential partnership between UK banks and fintechs, if executed correctly, could see a global revolution of the financial industry, and could lend a hand in securing the UK’s place as a top competitor in the market - regardless of EU status.

Innovate – before it is too late

As well as being a safety net for businesses, the key reason open banking is being hailed a monumental change for the fintech and wider financial sector is because it is enabling innovation in a previously stale market and is creating opportunities for fintechs to capitalise on.

In this age of AI and machine learning, customers have grown to expect a level of personalisation, which the traditional banking industry currently lacks as is shown by growing customer interest in alternative banking methods, such as Revolut, Starling and Monzo.

Open banking presents an opportunity for the sector to respond to these customer demands by tailoring traditional banking services to individual customer’s needs and wants. This could be through things such as detailed spending graphs or gamification techniques such as nudging for improved user behaviour.

Although the benefits are clear, this drive for innovation has created a pressured environment for businesses. Our research found that 49% of businesses believe their offer will lose appeal within just two years from launch and 60% of businesses agree that their companies will eventually become irrelevant if they don’t innovate constantly. Working with external organisations could offer businesses a solution to bridging the gap between idea and action. This is where the partnership between banks and fintech could be beneficial for both parties.

Brexit may, or may not, have an impact on where consumers bank down the line – but fintechs should be focusing their attention on the possibilities in the market now. By investing the time and energy on open banking, the fintech sector could have the public shunning high-street bank branches for AI and robo-advisers sooner than we think.

Change is happening – be it political, regulatory or otherwise – but you must determine which change will have the most impact on your individual business. With all the focus on Brexit, it’s easy to understand why less consideration has been given to the impact of open banking regulation. However, perhaps this is where you should be diverting your attention, as the opportunities are endless. As more and more fintech companies are jumping on the bandwagon, the initiative is picking up momentum and, we believe it will soon transform the banking industry as we know it.

Ever since the UK’s decision to leave the EU was announced, there has been a lot of speculation surrounding what will happen to the Irish border. Northern Ireland is part of the UK, which would leave the EU when Brexit goes through, but the Republic of Ireland will remain in the EU. This has led to many calls for border controls between the countries. It’s generally agreed that customs checks on goods will be required, yet whether passport checks are needed remains debatable. Recently the Chancellor of the Exchequer has suggested using blockchain to solve the issue.

In this post, we assess whether implementing blockchain will solve the Irish border issue. We conclude that it’s highly unlikely that blockchain alone will solve the problem, but a solution that incorporates blockchain as part of the process is more likely.

Why Blockchain?

The current line from the Treasury according to one source is that they are ‘actively considering technologies that could help facilitate trade over the Northern Ireland – Ireland land border.’ This was confirmed by Chancellor Phillip Hammond, who, when asked about how the government could achieve smooth trade after Brexit announced “there is technology becoming available ... I don’t claim to be an expert on it, but the most obvious technology is blockchain.”

Yet there are a few theories as to how blockchain could be involved practically. That’s not so surprising, as the only real major use of blockchain so far has been to power the cryptocurrency bitcoin.

What Could Blockchain Do?

Essentially, blockchain is a decentralised ledger which stores a digital record of transactions which is tamper proof. There have been a number of companies that have started to apply blockchain technology to their supply chains, with the most common reason to keep track of goods. One such example is of a start-up that used blockchain to track its tuna stock, every time it changed hands from net to supermarket the blockchain was updated.

This could be applied to the Irish border for documenting the movement of British goods through the supply chain, as a way to verify compliance with the EU’s rules. Checking blockchain certifications should be more efficient than paper ones, but it will be slower and it’s still unclear what other benefits this could hold.

Are There Any Other Options?

Presumably there are other options, given that the Treasury has revealed barely any details as to how blockchain might be applied. Especially as research into dealing with 6,000 heavy goods vehicles per day crossing the border has shown that using blockchain as a solution is ‘untested or imaginary’.

There’s still a chance that there won’t be a hard border and no technological solution will be required. Until the logistics and exact requirements are sorted out, it remains to be seen what will happen in terms of a solution.

Will it Be Successful?

According to most experts who have thought about the logistics of using blockchain to solve the Irish border issue, probably not. However, a solution that includes blockchain in part could be possible.

Indeed, in an interview with Cointelegraph, Vili Lehdonvirta, an associate professor and senior research fellow at the University of Oxford stated that “in my assessment there is zero chance that blockchain technology will help deliver a ‘frictionless’ border between Northern and the Republic of Ireland.”

Added to this, Nick Nick Botton, an expert on trade affairs and digital economies at Landmark Public Affairs stated that “The Northern Ireland issue is sadly not one that will likely ever be solved via technology, it's strictly a political issue at this stage.”

For businesses whose model relies on importing and/or exporting over the Irish border, seeking out financial options in case plans to use blockchain or other technology to sort out the issue fails is a good idea. Currently, it seems like there isn’t much of a plan, but that should all change in the near future.

To hear about tax planning and the things that need to change in the UK tax legislation Finance Monthly speaks with Adele Raiment, Director of the Tax Advisory team that specialises in entrepreneurial and privately owned businesses at Mazars LLP. Adele’s main area of expertise is working with privately owned businesses to develop and implement a succession plan, to ensure that any assets that the shareholders wish to retain are extracted in a tax efficient manner and she also works with all parties to assist in the smooth running of transaction.

What are the typical challenges faced by shareholders of entrepreneurial and privately owned businesses in the UK, in relation to the management of their finance?

I think the main concern on the horizon is the potential impact of Brexit on the UK economy and business confidence more widely. For privately owned businesses in the UK, many are still very cautious following the 2008/09 recession, and with the uncertainties surrounding Brexit, it is difficult to plan too far ahead. One of the main priorities of shareholders is ensuring that they have sufficient cash reserves to ride any potential downturn in the economy whilst recognising that they need to invest and innovate to thrive.

What is your approach when helping clients with tax planning?

My approach is to primarily understand the client’s commercial and personal objectives in priority to considering any tax planning. When planning for a transaction, I frequently find that the most tax efficient option isn’t always going to meet the key objectives of the shareholders or the business. It is important to consider the shareholders and the business as one holistic client, and therefore strike the right balance between personal, commercial and tax objectives. In respect of tax specifically, it is important to take all relevant taxes in to consideration whether it be corporate or personal. A good understanding of all taxes is therefore required.

My clients vary from FDs, to engineers, to self made entrepreneurs - all requiring different approaches. I believe that it is fundamental to get to know your client and adapt your approach to ensure that they understand you and what you are trying to achieve.

What are some of the day-to-day challenges of operating within tax planning? How do you overcome them?

As I predominantly work on transactions, I often work very closely with other professionals such as corporate finance professionals, lawyers and other accountants. The key challenge to this is making sure that the whole team is working collaboratively to achieve the best result for our client.

We are also under pressure to keep costs down, whilst ensuring that we provide quality advice. This can be difficult if the team has multiple transactions on the go at the same time and senior resource is constrained or if the project is wide-ranging, requiring several specialists to input in to the advice. The key to this is having a driven and supportive team, where teamwork and openness is pivotal to success. The working environment of my team at Mazars is incredible as we encourage open discussions on a variety of areas but one of the most useful ones is on technical uncertainties, which encourages consultation in times of uncertainty and technical development.

In your opinion, how could UK tax legislation be altered for the better?

Despite an exercise to ‘simplify’ UK tax legislation over more recent time, the legislation has increased in volume. A good example of this is that there are now two separate corporation taxes acts, when previously there was one. Having said this, the majority of the language used in more recent acts has made the legislation more user-friendly. However, there are still pockets of the legislation that seem to have been rushed through parliament and the practical use of the legislation was not considered fully prior to being enacted. This has resulted in several pieces of legislation being amended a year or two down the line. Although there does seem to be an element of consultation between Practice and HMRC prior to some legislation being enacted, I’m not always convinced that HMRC take on board the feedback. I therefore feel that a more rigorous consultation process should become standard to ensure that the commercial and practical elements of legislation are considered prior to enactment.

 

Contact details:

T: +44 (0) 121 232 9583/ M:+44 (0) 7794 031 399

Website: www.mazars.co.uk

Email: adele.raiment@mazars.co.uk

LinkedIn: http://uk.linkedin.com/pub/adele-raiment/13/693/360

Email: adele.raiment@mazars.co.uk

LinkedIn: http://uk.linkedin.com/pub/adele-raiment/13/693/360

The UK’s passion for innovation means it is now seen as a global leader in the development of financial services that are powered by prepaid technology, according to data released by Prepaid International Forum (PIF).

PIF, the not-for-profit trade body representing the prepaid sector, reports that the percentage of UK adults using tech-based financial services has risen to 42% (up from 14% in 2015). The UK is at the forefront of this growing market in Europe, ahead of Spain (37%) and Germany (35%). The UK is third globally to only China (69%) and India (52%).

Fueling this growth in the UK is prepaid, which has become a driving force for the fintech companies who are rapidly transforming the way we pay and get paid. The prepaid sector in Europe is growing faster than anywhere else in the world (up 18% since 2014 compared to just 6% growth in the US) is now worth $131bn*.

Experts believe that the UK’s passion for innovation may help to offset the potential negative effects of a no-deal Brexit, should UK financial service providers lose its right of automatic access to EU markets.

Diane Brocklebank, spokesperson for PIF, says: “The UK is a globally significant player in the creation of prepaid-enabled financial services with consumers keen to adopt new and innovative services and a growing industry of experts with the knowledge needed to develop such products and bring them to market.

“In a global sector, the UK stands out as being a key market and one that should retain its prized status even if it loses its financial passporting rights as a result of a no-deal Brexit.”

The UK’s status in prepaid is significant as it is a sector that is growing much faster than other financial services. In Europe, the 18.6% growth in prepaid since 2014, compares to just 7.8% growth in consumer debit and 5.8% growth in consumer credit markets*.

Diane Brocklebank, continues: “Prepaid and Fintech are the areas where people looking to invest in financial service businesses are seeing the most potential. This is being driven by increased dissatisfaction with mainstream financial services and a desire for greater innovation and flexibility, particularly amongst consumers looking for lower costs and fees as well as smartphone accessible products.

“The UK’s status as a global player is therefore crucial to it continuing to be seen as a key market for such investment. To maintain this, it must continue to be a positive environment for innovation with a supportive regulatory environment and strong skills base.”

(Source: PIF)

The estimated 1.8 million British expats living in the EU should consider reviewing their personal financial strategies as ‘no-deal’ Brexit looks increasingly likely, warns the deVere Group.

The warning from James Green, deVere Group’s divisional manager of Western Europe, comes after British Prime Minister Theresa May claimed that a no-deal Brexit “wouldn’t be the end of the world,” as she sought to downplay statements made by Chancellor Philip Hammond.

It also follows the UK government publishing last week its first technical notices advising businesses and consumers on the preparations being done for the prospect of there being no Brexit deal.

Mr Green comments: “A no-deal Brexit is now expected by a growing number of experts and the wider population to be the most likely outcome.

“If the UK crashes out of Europe with no deal in place, the estimated 1.8 million expats living in the EU could be financially impacted in two key ways.

“First, the pound would inevitably suffer and it could fall hard. This would deliver another heavy and serious blow for those who receive UK pensions or income in pounds as the cost of living, in effect, would be significantly more expensive.

“Second, unless there is considerable post-Brexit collaboration between the UK and EU there is a risk that existing payments from British companies, including pension and insurance companies, to those living within the European Economic Area (EEA) could be disrupted or even made impossible. Of course, this would be a major inconvenience to many UK expats.”

He continues: “Against this chaotic backdrop it is prudent that British expats in the EU consider reviewing their personal financial strategies sooner rather than later with a cross-border financial expert. This will help best position them not only to mitigate the risks of a no-deal Brexit, but also to enable them to take advantage of potential opportunities that may arise.”

Mr Green concludes: “Unfortunately, a smooth and orderly exit of the EU is looking increasingly unlikely and this can be expected to hit the finances of many expats.

“They should seek to make their financial strategies ‘no deal Brexit’ proof.”

(Source: deVere group)

The Enterprise Investment Scheme Association (EISA) has released a national and investor representative piece of research, gauging whether the British public and its investors feel that they will be wealthier in a post-Brexit UK, and how they feel the negotiations have gone.

With the date that Britain leaves the EU edging ever closer, the Enterprise Investment Scheme Association (EISA) has launched The Brexit Wealth Index 2018. Based on research conducted across a sample of 2007 respondents - of which - 1,122 were nationally representative investors, the data outlines the wealth creation opportunities available to them post-Brexit. Providing anecdotal and quantitative analysis as to whether the country will be richer after leaving the European Union, the survey specifically questions whether they feel their individual wealth will and has increased after the decision to leave was made.

Three in 10 British investors - 8.75 million - believe that securing a good deal with the European Union will be crucial to their continuing investments into UK SMEs. This is opposed to 5.75 million investors who do not agree that a good deal will affect their investments into SMEs in the future. British investors - 12.5 million of them (43%) - believe that the Government's actions affect their investment decisions more than ever before. This is opposed to four million (14%) who do not believe this to be the case. Moreover, 13 million investors believe that Brexit will not make them wealthier. This amounts to 44% of British investors, versus a fifth (19%) who believe that Brexit will make them wealthier. Of the wider sample, half of British investors - 14.5 million - believe that their wealth has not increased since the referendum decision in June 2016, while 5.5 million do believe that their wealth has increased since the vote to leave the European Union was made.

Overwhelmingly, 17 million British investors do not think that the Government is doing a good job in securing a deal for the UK’s financial services sector. Six in 10 (59%) of respondents believe this to be true.

A third of British investors (32%) - 9.5 million – do not believe that there will be more opportunity for wealth creation and entrepreneurship post-Brexit. However, nearly four in 10, (39%) - 11.5 million – do. This sentiment continues as 10 million British investors believe that there will be more opportunities to invest into SMEs in a post-Brexit Britain while seven million disagree.

A third (34%) of respondents believe that there will be a Brexit dividend which will make the UK richer after March 2019. This amounts to 10 million British investors. However, 11.5 million – 39% of respondents – disagree with this. In fact, when asked, I feel that there will be a Brexit deficit which will make the UK poorer after March 2019, 45% of respondents – 13 million – agreed, while just over a quarter (27%) disagreed.

Mark Brownridge, Director General of the Enterprise Investment Scheme Association (EISA), commented on the results of the survey: “It is clear that from this research that British investors feel that Brexit has not made them wealthier to date, and they do not believe that it will in the future either. Moreover, they feel that our Government does not have their back, and in fact, is contributing to the negative sentiment surrounding Brexit. The fact that so many investors feel this way is going to have a knock-on impact on the rest of the country and the economy.

However, there is some positivity, with many feeling that there will be great opportunities for wealth creation, entrepreneurship, and investment into SMEs in a post-Brexit Britain. We must remain optimistic yet cautious, we need to ensure that investors have the confidence to continue to look to UK SMEs as a viable investment, and also ensure that there is enough capital for investors to reinvest back into UK businesses.’

(Source: EISA)

More than a third (38%) of IT decision-makers across the UK financial sector believe it has become more difficult over the past five years to find staff with the right skills and experience. Over a third (34%) believe the problem is going to worsen in the coming five years. This is according to a survey across a range of financial and banking sector organisations, including retail and investment banking, asset management, hedge funds and clearing houses.

The survey, commissioned by software vendor InterSystems found a shortage across a variety of roles. Almost a fifth (18%) of respondents cited a lack of data scientists followed by 17% who revealed a shortage in security consultant/specialists, while 16% referenced application developers and 12% mentioned financial analysts.

“IT skills shortages are clearly a major concern for banking and financial services firms across the UK and this is only likely to escalate in the future,” says Graeme Dillane, financial services manager, InterSystems. “Skills shortages are a barrier to innovation in the banking and financial services sector. And as firms upgrade their legacy systems and look to innovate to meet the latest wave of regulations, that represents an increasingly serious concern.”

When survey recipients were asked to name the key qualities that technology can bring to help mitigate the negative affect of skills shortages within businesses today, 44% of respondents said: ‘simplicity of use’, 42% cited ‘ease of implementation’ and 36% ‘high-performance’.   

The study also found that skills shortages are one of the biggest barriers preventing innovation as cited by 35% of the study, behind only cost (41%) while compliance was referenced by 31%.

“These findings match with our experience in talking to customers and prospects across the sector,” added Dillane. “IT employees with the skills that banks and financial services companies are looking for are in short supply. Knowledge transfer is therefore increasingly key alongside solutions which combine ease of development; simplicity of use; high-performance and intuitive workflow transfer.”

(Source: InterSystems)

The United Kingdom, specifically London, has built a position as Europe’s primary financial hub, bridging the gap between the European Union and Asia, the United States and other regions. After Brexit comes into effect in March 2019, this once unassailable position will no longer be certain if it becomes more difficult for banks and other financial enterprises to provide services to EU clients due to a loss of ‘passporting’ rights – if no contingency plans are made.

Many financial institutions are not waiting to see how Brexit plays out and are seriously considering – or already planning – to move at least part of their operations to remaining EU countries in order to be prepared for any fallout from Brexit. Hiring rates in London’s financial sector have already halved, according to LinkedIn – reportedly due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and how it will impact the industry. Research from EY shows almost a third of banks and asset managers in the City of London confirmed that they are looking at moving staff to locations such as Dublin, Amsterdam and Frankfurt.

As a result, teams will be scattered across numerous time-zones and locations, with more employees likely to be working from remote locations, including their homes. Connecting a relocated and dispersed workforce is no easy task, and if the process is not well managed, it can cause serious disruption to day-to-day activities. Banking and financial services organisations need to have the right tools in place to ensure far-flung teams can communicate effectively and implement a standardised and coordinated way of working so that employees do not have to flit between numerous applications to complete tasks, collaborate on projects, monitor progress, manage resourcing and track deadlines. Fortunately, disruption can be minimised by utilising tools that nurture joined working environments despite geographical barriers and offer structure that keeps employees at different locations on the same page – in real time.

 

The challenges of collaborating across borders

Remote working is not new phenomenon – it’s widespread and a hugely popular way of working –

But many businesses are still trying to overcome the barriers it presents to communication and collaboration. Clarizen’s own research has shown that some of the most prevalent issues workers struggle with when working remotely include:

 

 

The banking and finance industry needs to ensure that these issues are resolved before Brexit takes place. Otherwise, the serious and negative impact they have on effective collaboration, productivity and business profitability.  Having to relocate operations is just one area of business that organisations need to navigate as the UK continues its withdrawal from the EU.

Internal company restructuring, product and services analysis and engagement planning are also elements businesses have to plan and execute, which is why it’s so important that teams have tools that facilitate a coordinated work environment during this tumultuous period.

 

Equipping employees with the tools to succeed

During Brexit and beyond, banking and financial organisations need to ensure employees are equipped with tools that help promote coordination between dispersed teams, while maximizing efficiency. Recent research from Clarizen found that almost three quarters of respondents said that what they specifically need to boost communication and collaboration among employees is technology, structure and support that enables them to overcome geographical barriers and the gap between time zones to increase productivity, ensure management oversight and foster flexibility.

What can help achieve this is a cloud-based platform that enables real-time collaboration across locations and empowers teams to coordinate workflow, track progress, align goals, allocate budget and meet deadlines from any device and location.

 

Overcoming communication overload

Ahead of Brexit, businesses need to ensure that they pick the right tool to maximize productive interactions between employees. Some businesses have previously used social media apps to facilitate easy and frequent employee discussion – such as WhatsApp and Facebook – in the belief they would streamline communications between workers and reduce long email chains that cause frustration and confusion. Unfortunately, such applications have often only served to encourage non-work chat and oversharing of irrelevant information that doesn’t bring employees any closer to meeting business objectives.

In a bid to become more focused in their approach, businesses have been turning to business-focussed communication apps. A recent global survey showed that, in the past year, companies deployed one or more of the following apps to improve productivity: Skype (39%), Microsoft Teams (14%), Google Hangouts (8%) and Slack (7%). Yet, even then, efforts to boost productivity proved fruitless as they merely became a place for office banter and overloaded people with numerous notifications and interruptions, which negatively impacts productivity.

It’s a modern workplace malady that has been dubbed ‘communication overload’, which is symptomized by workers struggling under the weight of clusters of unfocused messages, meeting requests and unnecessary interruptions. Clarizen’s research indicates that, in the end, apps that fail to directly link communication to business activities, aims and status updates actually hamper collaboration, effectiveness and efficiency. The survey showed that 81% of respondents said that, despite taking steps to improve communication among employees, they still lack a way to keep projects on track and provide management oversight – and only 16% of the companies surveyed said productivity levels were ‘excellent’ – while a nearly quarter said they were ‘just OK’ or ‘we need help’.

 

Looking ahead to a post-Brexit world

Brexit presents the banking and finance industry with a number of challenges that could put successful collaboration – and ultimately revenues and profits – at risk. However, by employing tools and methods that encourage an environment that nurtures a truly collaborative environment – where communication is in a business context and reporting in real time – the sector can enhance productivity and business agility, taking some of the sting out of any staff redeployments necessitated by Brexit. Even though it’s not clear what shape Brexit will take, there is no reason businesses in the banking and finance sector cannot minimise disruption and its potential costs by providing their employees with an approach and the tools they need to succeed during Brexit and beyond.

 

Website: https://www.clarizen.com/

 

Amidst the recent shock resignations of Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, investment uncertainty, slower economic growth and a weaker pound, the United Kingdom is on its way to a slow but steady Brexit, with negotiations about the future relations between the UK and the EU still taking place.

And whilst the full consequences of Britain’s vote to leave the EU are still not perceptible, Finance Monthly examines the effects of the vote on economic activity in the country thus far.

 

Do you remember the Leave campaign’s red bus with the promise of £350 million per week more for the NHS? Two years after the referendum that confirmed the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, the cost of Brexit to the UK economy is already £40bn and counting. Giving evidence to the Treasury Committee two months ago, the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney said the 2016 leave vote had already knocked 2% off the economy. This means that households are currently £900 worse off than they would have been if the UK decided to remain in the EU. Mr. Carney also added that the economy has underperformed Bank of England’s pre-referendum forecasts “and that the Leave vote, which prompted a record one-day fall in sterling, was the primary culprit”.

Moreover, recent analysis by the Centre for European Reform (CER) estimates that the UK economy is 2.1% smaller as a result of the Brexit decision. With a knock-on hit to the public finances of £23 billion per year, or £440 million per week, the UK has been losing nearly £100 million more, per week, than the £350 million that could have been ‘going to the NHS’.
Whether you’re pro or anti-Brexit, the facts speak for themselves – the UK’s economic growth is worsening. Even though it outperformed expectations after the referendum, the economy only grew by 0.1% in Q1, making the UK the slowest growing economy in the G7. According to the CER’s analysis, British economy was 2.1 % smaller in Q1 2018 than it would have been if the referendum had resulted in favour of Remain.

To illustrate the impact of Brexit, Chart 1 explores UK real growth, as opposed to that of the euro area between Q1 2011 and Q1 2018.

 

 

As Francesco Papadia of Bruegel, the European think tank that specialises in economics, notes, the EU has grown at a slower rate than the UK for most of the ‘European phase of the Great Recession’. However, since the beginning of 2017, only six months after the UK’s decision to leave the EU, the euro area began growing more than the UK.

Reflecting on the effect of Brexit for the rest of 2018, Sam Hill at RBC Capital Markets says that although real income growth should return, it is still expected to result in sub-par consumption growth. Headwinds to business investment could persist, whilst the offset from net trade remains underwhelming.”

 

All of these individual calculations and predictions are controversial, but producing estimates is a challenging task. However, what they show at this stage is that the Brexit vote has thus far left the country poorer and worse off, with the government’s negotiations with the EU threatening to make the situation even worse. Will Brexit look foolish in a decade’s time and is all of this a massive waste of time and money? Or is the price going to be worth it – will we see the ‘Brexit dream’ that campaigners and supporters believe in? Too many questions and not enough answers – and the clock is ticking faster than ever.

 

 

 

 

The financial services industry must “unite and fight” against a no-deal Brexit that potentially erodes clients’ rights and damages the financial sector itself.

This warning from deVere Group founder and CEO, Nigel Green, comes as the UK's International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox, said that Britain should accept a ‘no-deal’ scenario, instead of requesting more negotiating time.

It also follows MPs being told earlier this week by the Association of British Insurers that it could be “illegal” to pay private pensions to British expats if the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal.

In addition, the City of London is claiming that Brexit will cost Britain up to 12,000 financial services jobs in the short-term, with many more potentially disappearing in the longer term.

Mr Green says: “Now is the time for the financial services industry to unite and fight against a no-deal Brexit that potentially erodes clients’ rights, protections and freedoms. It must also stand against it potentially damaging the financial sector itself.”

He continues: “It is an outrage that if the UK crashes out of the EU, and free movement of capital stops because there is no agreement in place, people could stop receiving their hard-earned retirement income, saved over many years, simply because they have chosen to live outside the UK, which they are perfectly entitled to do.

“As an industry we need to step up, lobby the policymakers, and ensure clients are secure on this issue, amongst others. We need politicians to guarantee their rights, choices and safeguards as a matter of urgency.”

Mr Green goes on to say: “This latest warning, and the ongoing uncertainty, is likely to trigger even more people who are eligible to do so to consider moving their British pensions out of the UK into HMRC-recognised pensions while they still can.

“Many will be seeking to safeguard their retirement funds by transferring them into a secure, regulated, English-speaking jurisdiction outside the UK.”

The deVere CEO adds: “The financial sector also needs to make its own voice heard.

“The industry needs continuity and certainty. What it does not need is the chaos and the expense of a no-deal Brexit.

“A no-deal scenario will likely mean a reduction of the services and products that we are able to offer clients, as well as increased costs for businesses and, ultimately, the client.

“Therefore, we must actively engage with politicians – who largely seem only to have their own political agenda at heart - to prevent this from happening.”

(Source: deVere Group)

Below Rebecca O’Keeffe, Head of Investment at interactive investor, comments on the latest global market updates offering insight into the recent Ryanair strike debacle and Brexit progress.

Global markets continue their malaise, as trade tensions weigh on sentiment amid fears that global growth will slow. With no major catalysts to drive the market higher, the risks are on the downside and the danger is that equity markets will drift lower. Earnings will allow individual stocks or even sectors to out or underperform, but the broader indices are likely to find it more difficult to gain traction.

What a difference a week makes. Just last week, Theresa May appeared to have come up with a revised vision of Brexit that offered a middle ground and might have delivered a softer Brexit. However, resignations, rebellions, concessions and amendments now mean that it is difficult to be sure what the UK’s position actually is.  With May’s government somewhere between a hard Brexit and no deal, it will be very difficult for Europe to sign off on any deal based on the current UK confusion. The summer recess may provide some respite, but as the weeks ticks by the prospect of no deal is rising rapidly and the impact on sterling could become more severe than it already is, and international companies may once again begin to rachet up the rhetoric regarding the very real risks of a bad deal.

Ryanair are suffering multiple threats, all of which are weighing on the bottom line. Sustained higher oil prices, air traffic control strikes in Europe, bigger wage costs and increased competition are all problems for the low-cost airline. Ryanair has historically been reasonably good at hedging their oil exposure, but prolonged higher prices have increased their costs. Strikes by European air traffic controllers, in particular in Marseilles, have wreaked havoc for many European airlines, causing significant cancellations and disruption. Further strikes by Ryanair pilots are adding to their woes, alongside additional staff wage costs for pilots. The prospect of further competition in the low-cost sector from IAG is another headache that Ryanair could do without. Some of these headwinds are generic and some are self-made, but it is difficult to see much upside for Ryanair in the short term.

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