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American household debt totalled a record $12.73 trillion as of March 2017, so cost of living concerns are more pertinent than ever.

Personal finance news and features website GOBankingRates conducted a study to identify which cities across America have seen the largest increase in cost of living expenses from 2016 to 2017. The study evaluated US cities based on two principal metrics:

GOBankingRates identified the cities where the cost of living index had increased by at least two points (out of a total 100) and the amount of income required to live comfortably had also risen. Combining these two metrics provides both the objective and more subjective side of cost of living expenses. Most cost of living indices do not account for the ability to save or pay for unnecessary purchases, and yet they're both important parts of people's financial lives.

  1. Jacksonville, Fla. 
  1. Austin, Texas
  1. Louisville, Ky.
  1. Seattle
  1. Nashville, Tenn.

Additional Study Insights

(Source: GOBankingRates)

The new Government has to prioritise economic renewal, encourage investment and provide more support to businesses looking to grow according to Michael Izza, ICAEW’s chief executive. In anticipation of the Queen’s Speech later this week, he is urging ministers to take steps now to head off a looming threat to economic growth from weakening business investment, rising inflation and slower wage growth as revealed in ICAEW’s latest forecast.

“We cannot underestimate the impact that the current outlook for the UK has on business confidence,” said Michael Izza. “The vote for Brexit, the outcome of the General Election and looking ahead, the negotiations on leaving the EU all help build uncertainty and create a hiatus in making long term changes to our tax and regulatory systems.

“In the current climate, businesses tend to see the potential risks rather than the rewards of investing. I would like to see the new Government put business and the economy at the top of its agenda, doing more to create a climate of optimism and certainty which will help build confidence. It also needs to send a clear signal to the rest of the world that Britain continues to be an good place to do business, to invest and to trade. Not to do so could put at risk the economic progress we have made over the last two parliaments.”

ICAEW has also published its Economic Forecast for Q2 2017 which has revealed:

Michael Izza adds: “The voice of business needs more prominence within Government’s plans to rejuvenate the economy. The political parties, who largely ignored business in their manifestos, must now engage with the business community if UK companies are to thrive in a post-Brexit landscape.”

(Source: ICAEW)

In this video, Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, EMEA, talks about how the markets view the June 8th 2017, election result and its potential impact on the UK economy. He also discusses what the election outcome signals for the forthcoming Brexit negotiations.

Authored by Markus Kuger, Senior Economist at Dun & Bradstreet.

On Monday 19th June, the UK is scheduled to enter negotiations for its exit from the EU, in discussions that will fundamentally shape the future of the country and its economy. Just two months ago Prime Minister Theresa May surprised the nation by calling a shock general election, seemingly with the aim of strengthening her position in the Brexit negotiations and bolstering her claim to represent a consensus in the UK. However, the election did not unfold as expected.

Despite early polls suggesting a 20 percentage point lead for the Conservatives, the Tories lost 13 seats and thus their overall majority. Now, just days before talks with the EU begin, the Prime Minister is involved in domestic negotiations with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to form a government. So, what will the ‘Hung Parliament’ outcome mean for Brexit negotiations – and how can businesses respond?

On the home front

Short-term political uncertainty in the UK has increased sharply. The Conservative Party must now enter an alliance with another party in order to pass the Queen’s Speech and form a new government. Overall, this process will be time-consuming, leaving businesses without a clear outlook in the coming days and possibly even weeks.

In the longer term, even with the support of the DUP, the Conservatives’ majority will be extremely slim – which will be problematic, given the wide spectrum of views within the party on a number of issues, including Brexit. Against this backdrop, the government is likely to need to tread a conciliatory line both within and outside its own party: all of which will fundamentally impact the Brexit negotiations. Taking all factors into account, Dun & Bradstreet has downgraded the UK’s Political Environment Outlook from 'deteriorating' to 'deteriorating rapidly’, although this indicator is likely to be upgraded again once a new government is formed.

At the negotiating table

The dynamic of the Brexit negotiations has changed fundamentally. After Article 50 was invoked on 29 March and snap elections were called in April, initial talks between the EU and the UK were scheduled for 19/20 June. However, this round of talks is unlikely to deliver any noteworthy results, as the yet-to-be-formed British government will not have had enough time to prepare its negotiating position.

The election result suggests that the UK lacks an overwhelming consensus on the sort of deal that should be brokered. Theresa May’s personal position has also shifted, and rumours already suggest that she could be asked to step down by her own party at some point in the coming months as a result of the disappointing election outcome. The UK government may need to placate a broader range of opinions in parliament – including those of other parties – to pass any legislation. The extra time this will take will make negotiations with the EU even more complicated: Article 50 sets a strict 24-month deadline within which talks must be completed, of which two months have already passed due to the election campaign in the UK.

We predict that in the long run, the election result could make a ‘hard’ Brexit – which our analysis suggests would be harmful for the British economy – extremely hard to implement. It’s now more likely that the UK could remain in a customs union with the EU, reducing Brexit’s impact on businesses. The election outcome has even opened up the very small chance of the UK remaining in the EU, although businesses should continue to assume that the UK’s exit from the EU will still take place in March 2019. With so many factors in play at home and internationally, it is currently difficult to predict how the negotiations will unfold.

From the business perspective

All of this makes for a complex environment for businesses. Our analysis indicates that uncertainty will remain high in the next 18 months, regardless of what happens in the wake of the election, and we are maintaining our risk rating for the UK at DB2d, with a ‘deteriorating’ outlook. Given the backdrop of an already slowing economy (the UK posted the lowest real GDP growth of all 28 EU economies in Q1 2017), it is not surprising that businesses are beginning to express a lack of confidence, as seen in a recently published survey for the Institute of Directors.

Businesses should continue to monitor the progress of negotiations, and use the latest data and analytics to assess risk and identify potential opportunities. Once a government is firmly in place and Brexit negotiations progress, organisations may get a clearer picture of the likely basis for future business relations between the UK and the rest of the world. Until then, a careful and measured approach to managing relationships with suppliers, customers, prospects and partners will be essential.

Navigating uncertain times

The general election result surprised most commentators, and more importantly it creates the prospect of greater uncertainty in the medium term – both domestically and for the Brexit negotiations, which will be one of the most significant factors in the future development of the UK economy.

However, it’s vital to remember that the UK remains a stable economy, with long-term economic potential that exceeds that of most other European economies. For now, businesses should continue to follow developments closely as the impact on the Brexit settlement – and the political landscape of the UK – becomes clearer.

Below, Tamara Lashchyk, a Wall Street Executive and Business Coach, talks to Finance Monthly about the current state of markets in the US and the impact that Trump's Presidency will have on the strength of America’s economy. Tamara has 25 years of experience working at multiple Wall Street investment banks including JP Morgan, Bank of America and Merrill Lynch just to name a few. She also recently authored the book “Lose the Gum: A Survival Guide for Women on Wall Street.”

Over the last 12 months the US Equity Markets have shown steady signs of growth until last November when the US elections sent the stock market soaring into another stratosphere. A 16% market surge over the last six months could have an intoxicating effect on investors, but one should heed a word of warning about using market performance as the sole barometer of economic health. With GDP growth hovering just below two%, the stock market has fast outpaced the growth of the real economy.

Although corporate profits are a contributing factor to this bull-run, much of the current market rally has been fueled by the economic optimism generated by the Trump campaign and his promise to deliver a pro-business agenda. Any interference in Trump’s ability to deliver against that agenda could halt this market momentum and even send it towards a decline.

But in the wake of an administration riddled with controversy and scandal, the private sector sits anxiously awaiting, to see on how much of this promise Trump can actually deliver. Topping the heap of the Trump strategy is Tax-Reform and a reduction of the corporate tax rate which would stimulate profits; repeal of onerous government regulations particularly in the banking sector; and renegotiation of trade deals.

But the clock is ticking and Trump’s time horizon could be much shorter than the four year term of a presidency. If the all stars and planets align for Trump then he will have the full duration of his time in office to work with a Republican Congress. But with mid-term elections less than two years away, Trump’s opportunity to deliver may evaporate just as they did for President Obama when he lost both the Senate and the House.

At this point however, the mid-terms seem like a distant concern while the greater issue is the dark cloud of political smoke that engulfs this Administration. Whether or not there is actually fire remains to be seen, but in the meantime all the political noise creates an unproductive distraction that pulls Trump’s focus towards political warfare rather than delivering against his pro-business agenda. If any of the countless allegations are proven to have merit, a Trump impeachment could also be on the horizon.

To understand the impact that a disruption of Trump’s presidency may have from an economic standpoint, one should take a closer look at the current state of the economy. If you peel away the market enthusiasm and look at the economic fundamentals, the real economy is on solid ground and has been for quite some time. Unemployment continues to steadily decline although recent figures show signs that the decline is tapering off as underemployment and non-farm payrolls have reported softer than expected numbers. Caution regarding the slowing pace of growth is already priced into the market as seen by the return of the 10 Year Treasury yields back to their November levels. Inflation is under control eliminating the need for aggressive rate hikes by the Fed but a quest for normalization is still at the forefront of the Fed agenda as we balance against the danger of falling into a deflationary trap. Forcing a rate hike however, could send the economy into a tailspin so the Fed will likely play it safe by running the economy hot and dealing with the consequences of more money supply in the market.

So all in all, the fundamentals paint a solid economic picture, but they by no means match the gangbuster returns of the markets. Although the stock market is one of the leading indicators, in the past it has proven itself to be a cautionary tale, especially when considered in isolation. It is therefore important to look beyond the superficial gains of the recent market rally when evaluating the strength of the US economy.

Things have been looking okay for the US’ overall economy, and with implementing change in Washington, who knows what’s to be of the economy in months to come. Samuel E. Rines, Senior Economist and Portfolio Strategist at Avalon Advisors LLC discusses for Finance Monthly below.

The US economy currently finds itself in a familiar position. Following a weak start affected by statistical anomalies and an absent consumer, the economy is beginning to find its footing. But this does not mean that the US economy is going to suddenly take-off. On the contrary, the US economic outlook is heavily reliant on decisions made in Washington.

Recently, manufacturing, employment, and personal consumption indictors have been generally positive. While headline job creation in May was disappointing, jobless claims and other indicators of labor market stress have been subdued. There are certainly areas of the US economy that are less encouraging. Inflation and lackluster wage growth remain conundrums of sorts given the extremely low unemployment rate. Most economic models would have wages and inflation accelerating at these levels.

Taken together, the current state of the US economy is much the same as it has been for the past several years: not too hot, not too cold. Slow and steady growth around the post-recession trend growth of around 2 to 2.5%. Nothing to become too excited about, but also fast enough to generate sustainable growth. There are reasons to suspect the US economy will significantly accelerate its pace of growth in the second half.

While little has changed for the US economy so far in 2017, numerous events and policies could alter the trajectory over the next year or so.  The most important are the Trump Administration’s promised tax breaks and fiscal policies, closely followed by the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. And, in many ways, the two are related.

Following the election of President Trump, the markets cheered these pro-growth policies as yields on US government debt rose and equity markets made all-time highs. But some of this initial optimism—euphoria even—has dissipated. At least partially, this is due to the declining potential for timely fiscal policy changes. It has taken GOP members of Congress and the Senate far longer to come to agreement on what their version of the healthcare bill should be than markets anticipated.

The importance of the healthcare bill, and, the drawn out debate surrounding it, are difficult to overstate. To do meaningful tax reform, the healthcare reform must be completed first as there are taxes and costs embedded in the ACA law that the GOP deal with before it can fully rework the tax code. And reducing the costs within the ACA is critical to freeing up fiscal room to maneuver greater tax breaks than would otherwise be achievable. Until healthcare is completed, tax reform is on the backburner.

Further reducing prospects of growth boosting initiatives are the significant headwinds Trump Administration faces to implementing its agenda. Many of the headwinds are likely to pass over time, but that is precisely the problem—time. Unless there is a significant acceleration in the pace of legislation, tax reform now appears to be a late 2017 or early 2018 catalyst.

Because of this extended timeline, markets may be forced to refocus on the Fed’s policy trajectory. The Trump Administration’s fiscal policies are incorporated into economic projections used to recommend monetary policy changes. Simply, policy timing matters—not only for markets and the economy—but also for the evolution of the Fed’s monetary policy.

For markets, tax and infrastructure are imperative: the lower the taxes, the greater the after tax profits, and the higher the valuations. That dynamic is undeniably a positive for markets. Infrastructure spending would boost revenues for companies associated with building the nation’s infrastructure. Not only in the common sense of infrastructure, but communications, electrical grid, and other areas in need of national investment—again, a positive for markets. The only outstanding issue is when the positives might arrive.

One of the odd dynamics for US growth is that “good enough" growth is likely to prove "good enough" for a couple more Fed rate hikes this year. In the absence of fiscal policy, this could cause some issues for markets with growth and Fed tightening awkwardly out of sync. The evolution of politics in Washington will have a direct, and uncomfortable, influence on both. The US economy will be heavily, if not solely, reliant on Washington for its direction for the next couple of years.

With the election on our doorsteps, Jonathan Watson, Chief Market Analyst for Foreign Currency Direct talks to Finance Monthly about the potential impact of the UK’s general election on the national economy and the pound.

This election has gone from being one of the most predictable to actually quite an uncertain event. With this shift in outlook we have unsurprisingly seen the Pound too, go from fairly stable to displaying the more predictable behaviour caused by political uncertainty. Whilst Theresa May remains the favourite, the potential for surprise is high as polls in recent years have been anything but reliable. With the Conservative lead having fallen from as much as 20 points to less than 1 point in some cases, the market is having difficulty pricing in the news and possible outcomes. On Friday we could easily be looking at a slim Labour victory or a Conservative landslide. I am personally expecting a small improvement on the current Conservative majority of 17 which could call into question Theresa May’s decision to hold the election in the first place if not sufficient for a Conservative win

Elections are by nature uncertain events as they raise the prospect of a change in the Government responsible for setting taxes, spending and economic policies. Elections also take time, and often consumers & business delay important decisions to wait for the outcome.

The UK election must also be viewed against the backdrop of Brexit, without which we would not be having this election. The main reason it has been called is, according to Theresa May, to improve her negotiating position. Critics suggest other tactics but where Theresa May has framed the election about Brexit and many feel she is the right person to handle those negotiations, Labour have however made the election about austerity and played some strong cards to appeal to voters.

Free tuition fees and free school lunches as well as increases in government spending are all designed to appeal to the masses and could well earn Labour extra support. Such plans, if they come to fruition could certainly see Sterling lower, as the Pound performed very badly in the run up to both the 2010 and 2015 elections when it looked like Labour may win and they pledged to increase spending as they have now.

Mrs May and the Conservative party aren’t perfect, having also failed to spark much imagination with their policies performing a series of U-turns and failing to provide clarity on taxation policies. Whilst committing to being a ‘low-tax party’, they haven’t explicitly promised not to raise taxes. Theresa May’s U-turn on the issue of social care, and indeed her decision to call an election have also contributed to her slide in both the polls and approval ratings.

The spate of terror incidents we have seen lately are another factor weighing on the market. Terror attacks typically cause a currency’s value to fall, and whilst Sterling had fallen, the Pound actually found favour as markets felt that voters would believe Theresa May could be better placed to handle such incidents.

Market participants, investors, businesses and consumers all contribute more effectively to society when there is confidence and certainty. The run-up to an election is by its nature uncertain, hence the fall in Sterling value, particularly with Theresa May having previously looked so likely to win by a considerable majority. If the polls are right and the lead has narrowed the result is likely to see the Pound decrease in value based on those previous expectations.

This election is absolutely critical to shaping Brexit negotiations. Theresa May might also end up looking foolish for calling the election. There is the outside chance of her losing power either through losing the Conservatives’ power or being forced to step down if they lose. My belief however, is that the Tories will have done enough to boost their majority but not to the extent we previously believed. Nevertheless this may be enough to boost the Pound and provide a little more certainty over the Brexit.

Every NATO country contributes to the costs of running the Alliance. By far the biggest contribution comes from Allies’ taking part in NATO-led missions and operations. For example, one country might provide fighter jets, while another provides ships or troops. NATO Allies also pay directly to NATO to cover the costs of NATO staff and buildings, its Command Structure, and its jointly-owned equipment, like its AWACS aircraft.

In recent news Donald Trump praised Saudi Arabia for fighting extremism in the region and said he was the one to make North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) members spend more on defence.

In addition, cyber-attacks are becoming more common, sophisticated and damaging. Cyber defence is now a top priority for NATO. NATO now recognises cyberspace as an ‘operational domain’ – just like land, sea and air.  NATO helps Allies to boost their cyber defences by sharing information about threats, investing in education and training, and through exercises.  NATO also has cyber defence experts that can be sent to help Allies under attack.

 

Growth expectations for 2017 remain at 2.0%, according to the Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group's May 2017 Economic and Housing Outlook. For the fourth consecutive year, first quarter US growth slowed from the fourth quarter, partly reflecting ongoing seasonality issues. However, incoming data suggest that consumer spending growth will pick up this quarter.

Meanwhile, businesses will likely increase production in an effort to rebuild inventories, turning inventory investment into a positive for, instead of a large drag on, growth. Given the tight labor market, the ESR Group continues to expect rate hikes in June and September. Housing was a bright spot during the first quarter, and home sales performed well going into the spring season, thanks to solid labor market conditions and a recent retreat in mortgage rates.

"Once again, our full-year growth forecast remains intact as the economy grinds along, with the prospect of material policy changes appearing to be delayed," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. "We expect consumer spending to resume its role as the biggest driver of growth in the second quarter amid improvements in the labor market. Positive demographic factors should continue to reshape the housing market, as rising employment and incomes appear to be positively influencing millennial homeownership rates. However, the tight supply of homes for sale continues to act as both a boon to home prices and an impediment to affordability."

Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at www.fanniemae.com to read the full May 2017 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary.

(Source: Fannie Mae)

America's economy can return to the days of 3% and higher annual growth rates if Washington embraces pro-growth economic policies, concludes the latest installment of Pacific Research Institute's Beyond the New Normal series released last week.

"Nothing impacts America's economy more than government economic policy," said Dr. Wayne Winegarden, PRI Senior Fellow in Business and Economics, and co-author of Beyond the New Normal. "Reviewing 60 years of economic policies, we found that when government embraces policies that incentivize growth, our economy grows. President Trump and Congress can bring back the days of 3 and 4% annual growth by enacting a pro-growth agenda."

In Part 4 of Beyond the New Normal, Wayne Winegarden and co-author Niles Chura analyze 4 key economic turning points where changes in the economic policy mix impacted the health of the US economy (covering the periods 1958-1970, 1970-1982, 1982-2001, and 2001-2015). Following a historical review of the economic policy mix during each of these periods, Winegarden and Chura found that:

Beyond the New Normal is a multi-part study by Dr. Wayne Winegarden and Niles Chura, which makes the case that future US economic growth can meet –or exceed – past growth trends if the right economic policies are adopted.

Dr. Wayne Winegarden is a Senior Fellow in Business and Economics at Pacific Research Institute. He is also the Principal of Capitol Economic Advisors and a Managing Editor for EconoSTATS. Niles Chura is the founder of Ouray Capital.

(Source: Pacific Research Institute)

Finance executives are less optimistic about the economy entering the second quarter of 2017 than they were entering 2017, according to the AFP April 2017 Corporate Cash Indicators.

In the latest CCI, a quarterly survey of corporate treasury and finance executives conducted by the Association for Financial Professionals, US businesses continued to build their cash reserves in the first quarter of 2017. This was not what they anticipated at the beginning of the year. Last quarter, finance executives suggested that they were, for the first time in many months, willing to deploy cash in Q1. However, new numbers reveal they did otherwise. The quarter-over-quarter index of +15, which measures actual changes in cash balances during the quarter, contrasts with the anticipated change for Q1 of -7 that was reported last quarter. The +15 reading was just one point lower than a year ago. The year-over-year indicator increased by 6 points to +16, showing that companies have continued to accumulate cash over the last 12 months.

The forward-looking indicator, measuring the expected change of cash holdings during the second quarter of 2017, increased 10 points to a reading of +3, signalling a continued softening in finance professionals' business confidence through the spring and an anticipated increase in cash holdings in the coming quarter. This was four points below its reading from a year ago.

Meanwhile, the indicator for short-term investment aggressiveness gained one point in the last quarter moving from -2 to -1, continuing to signal a more conservative posture with cash and short-term investments. These results are based on 212 responses.

In early 2017, for the first time in many months, finance professionals displayed a new sense of optimism about the economy, which AFP attributed to a new president promising a pro-business agenda. However, continued gridlock in Washington, plus heightened geopolitical risk in Syria and North Korea likely dampened the mood of finance executives.

"The rapid change in finance executives' outlook comes as little surprise given the sudden rise in economic and political uncertainty," said Jim Kaitz, president and chief executive of AFP. "Corporate treasury and finance executives are responding quickly, and prudently, to the new environment."

(Source: Association for Financial Professionals)

Somalia faces numerous challenges on its quest for peace, stability, and economic prosperity. The recent drought and famine will test the country's resilience to provide humanitarian assistance and will require help from the international community. The government's recent policies demonstrate its strong commitment to improving the state of the country and Somalis' livelihoods.

Here are five things to know about Somalia's economy since the country resumed relations with the international community five years ago.

The drought is severely affecting vulnerable populations. The harsh impact of the ongoing drought on the agricultural sector has put about 6.2 million people (about half the Somali population) in need of assistance and at risk of food insecurity, prompting an urgent need for humanitarian and financial assistance from the government and the international community. The government will also need to better coordinate and monitor humanitarian aid distribution amid security challenges across some regions with a focus on the most affected regions.

Somalia is a fragile state, located in the horn of Africa, that has emerged from a two-decade-long civil war that caused significant damage to the country's economic and social infrastructures. In 2012, the Federal Government of Somalia was elected and recognized by the international community. Postwar conditions continue to be difficult, however, with poverty widespread and weak institutional capacity.

Donors' support is key. The Somali economy is sustained by donors' grants, remittances, and foreign direct investment mostly by the Somali diaspora. Since 2013, the donor community has given over $4.5 billion in humanitarian and developmental grants, which is essential in contributing to finance Somalia's trade deficit of nearly 55 percent of GDP (average during 2013-16). The current drought is expected to slow economic activity and raise inflation this year, thereby making donor support all the more critical to sustain growth.

Tackling unemployment is crucial for political stability. The unemployed youth population (about 67 percent) contributes significantly to irregular migration and participation in extremist activities, including Al-Shabaab—the militant jihadist group—which is viewed as another form of employment. With very high youth unemployment and low overall labor force participation (particularly by women), the Somali authorities established the National Development Plan that focuses on the following key areas: how to achieve higher economic growth, create jobs, and absorb the Somali refugees returning from Kenya; remittances flows; and prioritizing social safety nets and pressing humanitarian conditions.

Preparations for currency reform are under way to help strengthen governance . As part of a wider Somali reform initiative, the Central Bank of Somalia and the Federal Government of Somalia are preparing to reissue new Somali shilling banknotes—for the first time in 26 years—to combat the existing massive counterfeiting in the country, restore confidence in the national currency, and to allow the central bank to start implementing monetary policy. The IMF is helping the authorities to implement the measures that need to be in place for the launch of the new currency.

The IMF is working closely with Somalia. Since resuming its relationship with the country in 2013, the IMF has concluded two annual economic assessments—the first in 2015—marking the first IMF consultation with the country since 1989. Because Somalia is in arrears with the IMF it cannot benefit from IMF loans; however, the authorities have engaged with the IMF in the context of a 12-month staff-monitored program. This has helped create a framework to support Somalia's economic reconstruction efforts, rebuild institutional capacity, and establish a track record of policy and reform implementation. The first review of this program was completed in February 2017.

Technical assistance is helping. Somalia is among the largest beneficiaries of IMF technical assistance—which helps build institutional capacity—receiving over 70 technical assistance and training missions since 2014. Tangible progress is being made in budget preparation and fiscal reporting, currency reform, and financial sector reporting and licensing. For example, the authorities have been able to prepare a national budget for 2014-2017 and since January 2015, the government produced its first monthly fiscal reporting data. Starting from a very low capacity and a mix of Islamic and western accounting systems, central bank staff have developed a bank licensing framework, methods for periodic reporting by commercial banks, a system for bank financial analysis, and a supervisory scoring system that monitors the overall health of a bank. As Somalia continues to engage more with the international financial institutions, the IMF will deepen and scale up its capacity-building efforts as necessary.

(Source: International Monetary Fund)

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