Last week, the FTSE 100 saw a late upward rush as it closed at a new record high of 7,724.22 points. This was after a fresh record high at the end of the year, spurred by a rally in mining stocks and a healthcare burst. But how will FTSE kick off the year and will it sustain its consistency in record highs throughout 2018?
According to some sources, the success of FTSE in 2018 will largely depend on the outcome of Brexit negotiations, although a rise in the pound may make it a mixed blessing. Below Finance Monthly has heard Your Thoughts, and listed several comments from top industry experts on this matter.
Jordan Hiscott, Chief Trader, ayondo markets:
I believe the FTSE 100 will go above 8,000 in 2018. In part, this is due to the current political turmoil we are experiencing, with the incumbent UK government looking increasingly unstable as each week passes, an economy that seems to be lagging behind Europe on a relative basis, and the ongoing turbulence from Brexit.
However, all these factors are already known to investors and traders and so far, the FTSE has performed well despite these fears. For 2018, I believe the Brexit turmoil will increase dramatically as negotiations with Europe continue down an incredibly fractious route.
Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, OANDA:
Two key factors contributing to the performance of the FTSE this year will be the global economy and movements in the pound. The improving global economic environment was an important driver of equity market performance in 2017 and many expect that to continue in 2018, with some potential headwinds having subsided over the last year. The FTSE 100 contains a large number of stocks that are global facing, rather than domestically reliant, and so the global economy is an important factor in its performance. Stronger economic performance is also typically associated with stronger commodity prices and with the FTSE having large exposure to these stocks, I would expect this to benefit the index.
The global exposure of the index also makes the FTSE sensitive to movements in the pound. After the Brexit vote, the FTSE continued to perform well as a weaker pound was favourable for earnings generated in other currencies. The pound has since gradually recovered in line with positive progress in Brexit negotiations and a more resilient UK economy. Should negotiations continue to make positive progress this may create a headwind for the index and offset some of the gains mentioned above. A negative turn for the negotiations though would likely weaken sterling and provide an additional positive for the index.
While many people are confident about the economy, Brexit negotiations are more uncertain and will have a significant impact on the index’s performance, as we have seen over the last 18 months.
Sophie Kennedy, Head of Research, EQ Investors:
We believe that the synchronised global growth and continued easy monetary policy should support global risk assets going forward. As such, equities should deliver a reasonable return over the next year, which will be the starting point for FTSE performance.
The deviation of FTSE performance around global equity performance will likely be a function of a few factors:
- The level of sterling is extremely important. Many FTSE companies have very global revenue streams. As such, when sterling falls, foreign earnings are inflated. The level of sterling over the next year is likely to be a function of Brexit-negotiations, the result of which we are not attempting to forecast.
- There are a number of large commodity producers in the FTSE. Their profits and share prices tend to rise and fall with the price of commodities. The oil market looks more balanced than it has previously and strong global growth should boost global commodity demand. However, we have already had a large rally since the middle of 2017, so upside is likely to be more muted.
- The trajectory of the UK economy is also relevant, particularly for the smaller capitalisation parts of the market and sectors including housebuilders and utilities. We are not hugely positive on this point, on account of the real income squeeze and continued weak investment environment.
We feel that points 1 and 2 are neutral but point 3 is negative. As such, we expect the FTSE to deliver positive returns but likely underperform the MSCI World.
Tim Sambrook, Professor of Finance, Audencia Business School:
2017 ended the year strongly and is now around all-time highs. The 7% return and 4% dividend gain was better than most had hoped. But will this positive trend continue or will investors worry about the price?
The FTSE has performed strongly, because the global economy has done well. The FTSE is largely a collection of international conglomerates who happen to be based in the UK. The political mess has had little effect on the economic environment (fortunately!).
Strangely, a poor negotiation on Brexit will have a positive effect on the FTSE (if not the UK economy) as a large part of the earnings of the larger companies are overseas. Hence a fall in sterling will lead to a boost in earnings and hence push up the price of the FTSE.
Currently there is little reason to believe that the global economy, and hence corporate earnings, will not continue to do well in 2018. The current PE of the FTSE is not cheap at around the 18-20, and is without doubt above the long-term average of around 15-16. However, this is not excessive and could even support some negative surprises this year.
However, the underpinning of the current bull market has been dividend yields. The FTSE is currently offering 4% and is likely to increase over the coming year, with many of the large caps having excess liquidity. This is very attractive compared to other assets, particular as we shall be expecting higher rates in the future. The large number of income seekers are likely to increase the positions in the FTSE this year rather than reduce them.
Ron William, Senior Lecturer, London Academy of Trading:
The UK’s FTSE100 was reaching all-time record highs into the New Year, fuelled by a global wave of investor euphoria. 2018 was the best start to a year for S&P500 since 1999, marked by the Dow’s historic break above the psychological 25K handle.
All these technical new high breakouts are being supported by the highest level of upward earnings revisions since 2011, coupled with extreme levels of market optimism last seen at the peak of Black Monday 1987.
From a behavioural standpoint, it seems that analysts and investors are silencing tail-risk concerns in a precarious trade-off for fear of missing out on the party.
The “January Effect” is part of a tried and tested maxim that states “as the first week in January goes, so does the month”; and even more importantly, “as January goes, so does the year”. So our recommendation would be to see how January plays out as a potential barometer for the next 12 months.
However, keep in mind that we still live in known unknown times; some major markets have not even had a 5% setback in 16 months and the VIX index is at new record lows.
Back to the FTSE100, all eyes remain on the next glass ceiling: 8000. While there is an increasing probability that the market will achieve this historic price target, we must also apply prudent risk management as the asymmetric risk of a violent correction remains.
The long-term 200-day average, currently at 7422, is key. Only a sustained confirmation back under here would signal a major cliff-drop ahead from very high altitudes. Brexit tail risk will more than likely continue to weigh heavily on it.
We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!
More than nine in ten finance and accounting professionals (92%) are optimistic about increased automation in the profession, according to new research from Renaix.
The study, which questioned over 200 finance and accounting professionals, reveals that 81% are seeing their role impacted by emerging technologies, such as advanced data analytics (63%), cloud computing (42%), robotics (17%) and artificial intelligence (15%). This increases to more than nine in ten (94%) who believe these technologies will impact their role in the next five years.
Yet, despite the increasing role of technology, only 12% of those questioned believe their job will be completely automated within the next five years, with most seeing new tools as an opportunity rather than threat. Two thirds (69%) say automation will enable them to be more efficient, over half (59%) say it will allow them to add greater value to clients and 40% say it will reduce the amount of transactional work they’re involved in.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t challenges, with more than half (59%) of respondents having to learn new skills to keep up with technological developments, with data analytics (54%), soft skills (54%) and working with new technologies (51%) coming top of the list.
Many are also worried about skills shortages over the coming years, particularly in data analytics (52%), STEM (science, technology, engineering and maths – 42%), and soft skills (31%). Furthermore, a quarter (25%) of those questioned say their employer still isn’t investing in upskilling the finance function to work with new technologies.
Paul Jarrett, Managing Director at Renaix, comments: “Emerging technologies are set to transform the finance and accounting sectors, with many professionals already feeling the impact on their day-to-day responsibilities. And it’s encouraging to see that, far from being intimidated or threatened by these new ways of working, the majority of professionals are excited and optimistic, believing automation will improve and expand their role in the coming years.
“Finance and accounting organisations have a fantastic opportunity to drive forward digital transformation, empowering all employees to play their part in developing and implementing new ways of working. However, to do so effectively, employers need to ensure they are equipping the workforce with the right skills, as well as investing in bringing in the right talent. While there will always be a need for traditional finance and accounting skills, we’re seeing a significant rise in demand for a broader range of backgrounds, particularly those with STEM qualifications. Businesses therefore need to plan their talent needs effectively, to ensure they stay ahead of the game.”
(Source: Renaix)
With plenty of change coming in 2018, here Emmanuel Lumineau and Thomas Schneider, Founders of BrickVest, delve deep into the future of real estate for the coming year, prospects of growth and challenges ahead.
2017 was a strong year for the real estate industry. Despite a number of external factors that could have easily affected market performance, low interest rates remained stable and demand in real estate investment products continued to rise.
Brexit
Brexit has clearly had an effect on the UK but we believe that across Europe, there remains strong deal flow levels and investment opportunities. Our recent research1 showed that one in three (33%) commercial real estate investors highlighted Germany as their preferred region to invest in. This is the first time that Germany has been chosen as the number one region to invest in and ahead of the UK which was selected by a quarter (27%).
The UK saw a drop from 31% in the last quarter and from 32% in the same Barometer 12 months ago. The Barometer also revealed that UK, French, German and US investors are now less favourable towards the UK since last year. 45% of UK, nearly a quarter (21%) of US, a fifth (19%) of French and 18% of German investors suggested they favour the UK this quarter, representing a decrease from last year across the board from 46%, 26%, 28% and 21% respectively.
Despite investors seemingly focussing away from the UK, there has been an abundance of international capital flowing into real estate, almost every major institutional investor globally has been increasing their portfolio allocation to real estate over the last five years mainly because of lack of alternatives.
Moreover the average risk appetite of BrickVest’s investors continues to rise to 52% from 49% last quarter and from 48% this time last year, meaning a sentiment shift from low to balanced risk
Interest rates
The Bank of England’s decision to raise interest rates in the UK in November was momentous for the economy and should signal the start of a series of gradual increases. The Bank decided that inflation is potentially getting out of control and the economy now requires higher borrowing costs. In contrast, the ECB’s decision to unwind its QE programme to €30 billion a month is a glowing endorsement of healthy Eurozone growth and falling unemployment, which will more than likely mean that interest rates will stay at historic lows until at least 2019 in order to help financial markets adjust.
Increasing interest rates has a direct impact on real estate. Higher interest rates and rising inflation make borrowing and construction more expensive for owners, which can have a constraining effect on the market but can also lead to an increase in property prices. In a low interest rate environment, European real estate yields will continue to look attractive and real estate serves as a good alternative to fixed income.
Value in 2018
We expect to see increasing demand for real estate in 2018. Indeed our research2 showed that two in five (40%) institutional investors plan to increase their allocation to European commercial real estate while 44% expect commercial property yields to increase in the next 12 months, just 22% believe they will decrease.
We believe that the best value can be found in real estate deals that are not too sensitive to price erosions. Investors should keep a close eye on the risk of high leverage and DSC ratios. We believe that the best investment options for 2018 will most likely be found in value-add real estate in combination with a conservative financing policy.
Investment strategy 2018
Given the fact that we believe demand will remain relatively high in 2018, one of the main challenges will be to find good deals.
Investors will have to find the right balance of higher leverage (due to continually low interest rates) and being able to handle potential price corrections in the event that the market cools off due to external factors such as Hard Brexit, escalation in the US vs. North Korea conflict, etc…
Institutional investors are investing in less liquid secondary and third level cities to achieve acceptable going-in cap rates (cap rates in major markets such as Paris are historically low). Investors will also be forced to look at less traditional investment products such as student housing, services apartments, and senior housing or industrial to get better returns. The overall risk of these investment is that they are in general less liquid and if the market bounces back, cap rates will also increase much faster than in downtown Paris.
In order to manage this problem, some institutional investors are now investing in real estate debt products so that they a.) have their exposure to real estate but b.) also have an achievable exit (i.e. when the loan maturity is reached). We think this might be smart strategy in 2018 given real estate prices are already very high and might fall in the long term (so no upside opportunity but also no real downside risk).
Sectors to watch
We continue to see the highest level of volatility from the office sector as many international firms put decisions on hold over their long-term office space requirements. Our research2 with institutional investors highlighted that more than a third (34%) believe the biggest real estate investment opportunities will be found in the office sector and the same number in the hotel & hospitality industry over the next 12 months.
Three in ten (31%) thought the industrial sector would present the biggest commercial real estate investment opportunities over the next 12 months while one in five (19%) cited the retail & leisure sector.
Mifid II
When implemented in January 2018, revisions to the EU’s Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II) will radically change the regulation of EU securities and derivatives markets, and will significantly impact the investment management industry. It will have a significant impact for wealth and asset managers on profitability, product offer and their distribution across Europe, operating models and pricing and costs.
As a consequence, we expect MIFID II to widen the gap between global, infrastructure-based players, and local players. Crowdfunding platform may be affected by these changes.
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)
GDPR comes into force on 25 May 2018 and represents the biggest change in 25 years to how businesses process personal information. The directive replaces existing data protection laws and will significantly tighten data protection compliance regulation.
Like other industries, real estate companies will have to conduct a risk analysis of all processes relevant to data protection.
David Clarke, a top 10 GRC influencer discusses the future of risk and compliance facing corporate and banks.
Today marks the 30th anniversary of the day when the financial bubble, that resulted in the Dow Jones reaching a record peak of 2722 in August, burst in spectacular fashion.
Following a fraught Friday on the New York Stock Exchange where the DJIA dropped sharply, the opening bell on 19th October started a selling onslaught and panic on the floor that hasn't been seen since. We take a look back at Black Monday 1987 in numbers.
Black Monday In Numbers
"It was a frightening week, more frightening than any week in '08" - Jim Chanos
19th October 1987 – The date of Black Monday.
9am – The sounding of the opening bell that began the selling that almost crashed the entire American financial system.
250 points – Points drop on the Dow Jones by 12:30pm.
508.32 points – Number the DJIA fell on 19th October 1987, it was at the time the largest drop Wall Street had seen.
4x – The amount the points drop on 19th October was bigger than the previous record.
22.76% - One Day Percentage Loss on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). A record that still stands today.
Dow Jones Industrial Average from January - December 1987
$500 Billion – Amount of capital lost on 19th October 1987.
33% - Drop in S&P Futures on Black Monday.
604.33 million shares – Volume of shares on the New York Stock Exchange. A record at the time.
$1 Billion dollars – Value of Sell Orders reached by 10am on 19th October.
112 million – Shares lost by the Designated Order Turnaround System at NYSE as the computers buckled under the weight of sell orders.
648 - Days it took for the markets to recover.
$18.8 Billion - Market Value Lost By IBM on Black Monday. It was valued at around $62 Billion before Monday 19th October.
"Wall Street was uniformly unprepared for this magnitude of drop" - Paul Tudor Jones, October 19th 1987
23pc - Drop on the FTSE 100 on Black Monday and Tuesday combined. The biggest ever in history and a figure that has never been seen since.
60% - Percentage drop of the New Zealand Stock Market after Black Monday.
$6.7 Billion - Total in paper losses on AT&T Shares.
30.9% - Amount of American Express shares were reduced by during the trading day.
Traders react after one of the worst days the New York Stock Exchange has ever seen.
33 – Age of Paul Tudor Jones in 1987, when he and his colleague Peter Borish foresaw Black Monday.
$100 Million - Amount Paul Tudor Jones made by shorting the market and ensured his legacy on Wall Street.
$1 Billion – Amount Sam Walton, reportedly America’s Wealthiest Man lost on the day. ''It was paper when we started, and it's paper afterward.'' He said after the days trading.
$500 Million - Reported figure that Walton's Wal-Mart company value lost on Black Monday.
40% - Reduction in restaurant bookings and turnover in local businesses used by Wall Street Traders on 19th October.
$500 Million -Reported value of holdings in Allegis, Holiday, Bally and various other companies sold by future President Donald Trump in August that ensured he avoided any losses and became one of the few to make money on Black Monday.
16 hours – The time it took after the Dow Jones Closed on Black Monday for the US Federal Reserve to release a statement saying that it “affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system”
10 – Number of the largest banks who extended credit to traders following the Federal Reserve statement.
Traders stand bewildered after the New York Stock Exchange closed on Black Monday
2,078 – Stocks Traded on the board at the NYSE on Black Monday.
2,038 - Stocks Traded on the board at the NYSE that made a loss.
$470 – Amount Gold price per ounce increased (from $15.50) as one of the only performing stocks.
$1 Trillion – Total loss of wealth by the close of play.
$10,000 – Cash withdrawn late on 19th October from his Bank by Allan Rogers, head of government bond trading at Banker’s Trust, and hid in his loft because he was so scared the whole banking system was going down.
7% - Percentage of stocks that didn’t even open the following morning.
126 points – Rise in DJIA in the opening minutes of Tuesday 20th trading following Federal Reserve stop-gap measures.
10:00am – The rally is over and the Dow Begins to plummet once more.
11:28am – Time the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ceases trading on the S&P contract.
The crash was splashed all over the world news following a devastating day for traders.
11:15am – Time on Tuesday 20th October traders and banks like Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Salomon requested John Phelan CEO of the NYSE perform a total shutdown due to lack of buyers.
285 – Price paid by Blair Hull on MMI Futures in Chicago sparking the rally that some say prevented a full blown crash.
62% - Amount made by Tudor Investment Corp. in October.
102.27 – Dow Jones Industrial Average gain on the day for Tuesday 20th October.
23000 - Number hit by the Dow Jones on October 18th 2017, almost 30 years on from Black Monday sparking fears another equity bubble may be about to burst.
Thanks to some quick responses from the Federal Reserve and a surprise market rally, the Dow Jones rallied enough to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression that had followed the Wall Street Crash of 1929 that bore many similarities to Black Monday in 1987.
The flash crash also led to several huge changes on Wall Street including a kill-switch on trading the S&P if it drops below 7% and an overhaul of the computer systems that had caused so many issues on that fateful day to ensure that the confusion and inability to trade would no longer be an issue. And while there have been monumental crashes on trading floors across the world, none seemed to repeat the speed and fear that occurred on the New York Stock Exchange on the 19th October 1987.
Rumour and conjecture abound in the financial world that lessons may in fact not have been learned, and that we may be in line for another Black Monday, especially given the DJIA topping the 23000 figure just today. Analysts remain nervous, citing an 8-year bull market and reports of a hugely over-inflated US stock market. One thing is for certain, no one at the New York Stock Exchange will want to see the markets offer up any sort of anniversary.
All Photos: Roger Hsu
Sources: Bloomberg, NY Times, Guardian, Reuters, Washington Post
In 2008 the global financial crisis hit business worldwide and recovery has been slow ever since. At the centre of this recovery banks have played a vital role, but attitudes have shifted over the years. Here Marina Cheal, CMO at Reevoo, answers the question: have banks earned our trust back?
When is a bank not a bank?
In 2008 the major financial institutions managed to comprehensively dismantle consumer trust. Since then, they’ve tried almost everything to win that trust back – but the main change is what’s happening around the big banks, not within them.
The Big Six survived the 2008 crash (some by the skin of their teeth) but nearly ten years on they’ve still to rebuild consumer trust. Their customers remain – mostly out of necessity or inertia. But changing attitudes, expectations and regulations mean a raft of challenger banks are ready to snap them up.
And those big banks have no one to blame but themselves.
Pre-2008, banking customers were supposed to look out for stability, tradition, heritage above everything, even customer service. Customers would put up with inconvenient branch opening hours and computer-says-no failed mortgage applications because at the time, legacy was a good thing.
Today’s banking customer has done a complete U-turn – influenced not just by the failings of the big financial institutions, but innovation in almost every other industry. Compared to how easy it is to set up a Gmail or Uber account, banking is in the dark ages. Challenger banks’ USP is helpfulness not heritage, speed not solidity - and it’s blowing a wind of change through the industry.
This has led to the birth of a clutch of new smartphone-only banks that are focused on making banking a more user-friendly experience. Understanding that banking isn’t just about holding onto and shelling out the customer’s cash when required, these ‘neo-banks’ put money management back into customers’ lifestyles. What, if anything, is the bedrock of people’s modern lives more than money?
So instead of lining up deposits and debits and administrating standing orders, these banks review the customer’s spending patterns, established commitments to help customers better understand how much cash they really have in hand. Oh, and making the experience enjoyable while they’re at it.
Tom Blomfield, founder and CEO of one of the most popular smartphone banks, Monzo, doesn’t believe that the incumbent banks are under immediate threat. He does, however, insist that they will have to change.
He told the People Tell Richard Stuff podcast: “Big banks don’t need to fail for startups to succeed. We’re still fractions of a percent of the market. But retail banks will look dramatically different in five years. They may not have to fail, but that’s not to say that some won’t,” he warns.
Mark Mullen is chief executive of Atom Bank and the former CEO of First Direct. His view is that the market is changing in response to customer needs and it really is time to move with the times.
“When regulation changes, banks change in response. The question is really what drives regulation. A lot of what we see today has been driven by the crisis but also a broader range of influences like advances in technology. The great majority of innovation in banking didn’t start anywhere near banking and so it’s had to respond.”
There can be no doubt that the Big Six have been slow to respond to the changes in the retail banking sector. Barclays only launched a mobile app in 2012 and the majority of mobile banking apps are simply a pared down version of online banking - in many cases, so pared down that the app still can’t perform simple tasks such as pay someone new without referring to the online portal.
Open banking looks set to be the real spanner in the works for banks. PSD2, the second Payment Services Directive will open up customer banking data (with consent under data protection legislation) to anyone the customer is happy to share it with.
This can include but isn’t limited to: online retailers, utilities, insurers... in fact, anyone who can provide the customer with great user experience and simple financial management under a trusted brand.
Being side-by-side, and in some cases having to cooperate with more nimble companies will be an unfavourable comparison – and may shepherd customers toward banks that can offer a more tech-forward solution.
Mullen explains the challenge ahead, for challenger banks as well as incumbents: “Open banking and PSD2 paved the way for an API economy in financial services. The acid test of whether it succeeds is less to do with technology or regulation. What will motivate customers to engage in a different banking model and fundamentally - what’s in it for them?
“We’ve lived with the universal banking model and the one stop shop. The open banking model has to be as convenient. I wouldn’t underestimate that. You can have a great reputation and tick the boxes you think are important and still struggle because the trade-off of effort versus return isn’t transparent.”
This still won’t necessarily drive the big banks into obsolescence but it will strip away the brand and service elements until our hallowed institutions are nothing but white label providers of banking functions. The account management, the ancillary services and the relationship will be with whoever can deliver consumer trust, 2018-style.
Mullen concludes: “This is a very big banking market and there are lots of opportunities for us to develop over the next five years. When PSD2 enacts in January, the world won’t be different but there will be a competition for customers and products over the year.”
While many younger drivers have been using so-called black box car insurance, telematics has yet to become mainstream. The FT's Oliver Ralph test drives a telematics system to see how it affects his driving, and whether it could be the future of car insurance.
September marks the 10th anniversary of the contactless card, and in the last decade we’ve seen its use soar, particularly in recent years. Barclaycard believes its use will push a further 300% in the next four years.
Finance Monthly has heard from Ian Bradbury, CTO for Financial Services at Fujitsu UK and Ireland, who shares his insights on how contactless has developed over the past ten years, and where he expects the payments landscape to go next.
It is hard to believe that contactless cards have now been around for a decade, as we have only in recent years seen them receive significant uptake with consumers. What was once seen as ‘scary’ and ‘unsafe’ to use, is now – thanks to its ease and education – resonating and growing in popularity with today’s consumers and now responsible for a third of all card transactions.
We expect this adoption of contactless payments to only grow, and become an increasingly important feature in the British payments landscape. Ultimately, both consumers and retailers are choosing to adopt solutions that are secure, quick and easy to use, as well as ubiquitous.
Not only are contactless payments quicker and easier to use than Chip and Pin, they are in a variety of ways more practical than small change and notes. The notable corresponding growth in debit card transactions also implies that this is not just growth fuelled by debt and easy credit – much of this increase will be a result of contactless payments being made purely due to ease. Moreover, contactless payments have the added value of fuelling other payment solutions such as Apple and Android pay and other wearable technology, which isn’t so easily done with Chip and Pin.
The success of contactless payments highlights consumers today are quick to adopt new payments solutions that focus on improving their experience. That said, because consumer experience can cover many aspects including convenience, security, speed and ubiquity, it’s essential that providers put in place ways to improve the experience over current solutions. If future payment solutions do not address all of these areas – which are fast-becoming an everyday expectation from consumers – then they are unlikely to be successful.
Retail banks have an opportunity to differentiate with new offerings and control their own disruption. Find out how: http://cs.co/90018tx9R
Robo-advice has become one of the more popular and prominent financial technology innovations of the last few years, and it’s easy to see why. However, Lester Petch, CEO at FinchTech, reckons there’s cause for concern, and below talks Finance Monthly through five reasons robo-advice may not turn out to be all it’s promised without confronting some hard-hitting issues.
In theory these platforms offer expanded access to financial advice and fill a widening RDR gap, at a lower cost and with superior ease of use. Citigroup estimates that assets managed by robo-advisors could reach a collective value of $5 trillion over the course of the next decade - and that is certainly something to aim for.
Excitement and optimism should always be tempered with pragmatism however, and practically speaking, there are reasons to be concerned. Many available and in build platforms promise innovation, efficiency, and accuracy, but have some major potential hurdles to overcome.
- Build cost and overspending on customer acquisition
Robo-advice start-ups are often unknown quantities, and must therefore build from scratch. Many rely on digital and social marketing campaigns, alongside referrals, o generate revenue. The problem is that these campaigns are often expensive - sometimes hideously so. Nutmeg, for example, posted a pre-tax loss of £9 million in the last fiscal year, even as marketing and staff costs hit £10.8 million.
It’s not altogether surprising that when cost of acquisition (CAC) for clients exceeds overall lifetime value (LTV), firms lose money. The assumption is that these expensive omni-channel campaigns will of course be successful, and eventually skew the CAC to LTV ratio back in the company’s favour. This is however a precarious position for any business to find itself in, even one with fantastic technology. Deep pockets are required.
In some cases the aim might perhaps be for the business to accumulate enough assets under management to enable a sale or exit, however this is also a risky strategy. Recent 2016 research by SCM Direct, a UK wealth manager, suggested most UK robo-advisers “will go bust before acquiring the sizeable assets under management to ensure their sustainability”.
- No real performance history
Sophisticated software is no substitute for experience. Many robo-advice platforms haven’t weathered any serious economic storms. Many have little performance history at all and rely on back testing. How much can you trust in a technology that has never been truly tested in the heat of battle, or weathered an event such as a recession or cataclysmic sell off?
- Limited suitability
Robo-advice platforms may be at risk of not always accurately assessing risk tolerance – which can cause serious problems in an economic downturn. Recent research from FinaMetrica found that 21.2% of the firm’s 100,000 customers incorrectly estimated their true risk tolerance by a significant margin, when using a psychometric risk test. Platforms could be vulnerable to recommend investments that are beyond or below the client’s capacity for risk, especially in the event that the markets exhibit extreme volatility.
- Reliance on algorithms
In an age of sophisticated and improving technology, reliance on this tech has led some to treat algorithms with an almost mystical reverence. Many are truly impressive, but can clients truly understand them? No algorithm is perfect, and many are unproven and untested in reality. They’re theoretically created to take human error or preference out of the equation, but human error can be a factor in their design and development. Could a mistake lead to catastrophic consequences for clients and do they know what they are buying into?
- Lack of differentiation
For all the talk of the market’s innovation and creativity, it’s often hard to tell one robo-advisor from another. The major differences tend to be cosmetic, a technological bell here, a branding whistle there, and little differentiating focus on the client’s needs and priorities.
Those robo-advice platforms that enter the market in the near future with more niche or specialised offerings aimed at specific market segments such as cultural groups or different age brackets, are more likely to gain traction, as well as potentially spend less on client acquisition
In conclusion, robo-advisors will need to overcome these problems and more to achieve long-term viability. This isn’t to say that the technology isn’t exciting, the need isn’t there or that it doesn’t have huge potential. The right platforms could potentially redefine the market, and digital investment management is a step in the right direction. If digital investment management platforms can iron out the kinks and focus on what works for their own business model, and more importantly their customers, there is a bright future ahead of them.
Below Sam Bennett, COO at Frontierpay, provides Finance Monthly with a brief overview on UK inflation over the past few weeks, looking at the current state of play, the evolution of optimism and the overall position of the pound among global currencies.
Mark Carney must have breathed a sigh of relief from his office in the Bank of England when the news reached him just a few short weeks ago that UK inflation had fallen to 2.6%; contradicting market expectations that it would remain at, or even rise above May’s figure of 2.9%
The rate at which inflation rose over the last year had been better than predicted, after hitting what was already a 20-month high in June 2016, when the UK voted to leave the European Union. The CPI’s unexpected drop in July, which came largely as a result of lower oil prices reducing the cost of petrol and diesel, was therefore very welcome.
While the fall in inflation was quickly hailed as good news by many businesses and everyday consumers, sterling’s position in the currency market was hit hard, with a slowdown of the domestic economy creating significant downward pressure.
The 0.3% fall led to an immediate drop in the value of the pound, which landed at €1.12 against the single currency and shed more than a cent against the dollar. As sterling continued to feel investor pressure in the following days, the pound fell another 1% against the euro and found itself sitting below $1.30.
Today, a little over three weeks since the fall in inflation was first announced, the state of play for the pound isn’t looking any more encouraging than it was in those first few troublesome days.
Despite German industrial production falling unexpectedly, an event which we might have expected to provide some relief, sterling has not only remained under pressure, but has actually slipped further against the euro and dollar. Even with the most recent data from the Eurozone being weaker than many analysts predicted, potential investors are still wrestling with the uncertainty of the UK’s weak UK inflation data.
It should be pointed out that there is still some relative positivity in the investor community, thanks largely to robust global growth rates. Equity markets are sitting at fresh highs, with global indices rising, on average by 23% this year so far. Cause, therefore, for some optimism.
For the time being, however, the UK continues to look like the perceived weaker cousin, in comparison to the other major global currencies. We’ve seen several attempts to gain ground against the euro and the dollar pushed back, and live prices have settled at levels of around €1.10 and $1.30. As lower inflation numbers continue to weigh heavily on the pound, a rapid turnaround isn’t looking very likely.
HR leaders in UK financial services firms are finding themselves caught between a rock and a hard place. Here, Steve Girdler, Managing Director EMEA at HireRight, looks at the future of FS firms in the UK and discusses the issue of skill shortage and migration of business.
On the one hand, the financial services (FS) sector is heavily reliant on the skills, diverse experience and local knowledge of the European workers who help make London a thriving international financial centre – a talent pool that’s at serious risk of drying up post-Brexit.
On the other hand, London’s historic advantages, which extend beyond its access to talent – factors like specialised infrastructure and even its geographical position between mainland Europe and the US – make it very hard for firms to conceive of a finance hub anywhere else in the continent that could rival the City, at least in the short term.
It is now a delicate balancing act, as firms look at hedging their bets to safeguard themselves against the potential risks of leaving the EU, while also keeping one foot firmly in the UK. With the challenge very much at the feet of HR departments, the approach taken over the months ahead will not only help to define what the future looks like but also determine how successfully and profitably their firms navigate through it.
Navigating the storm
Recent research from Deloitte shows that 47% of highly skilled UK workers – the lifeblood of the financial sector in London – are planning to quit the UK in the wake of Brexit. Inevitably, being highly skilled also means being highly sought after and these workers are not short of options if their future in the UK exceeds their appetite for risk and uncertainty.
But amid the storm clouds gathering over the City, there remain a few rays of sunshine. A recent study we conducted among over 2,500 HR leads around the world found that in the UK’s financial services sector, optimism remains. Almost two thirds (63%) of HR teams within UK FS firms expect their workforce to grow in the coming year. In contrast, only 4% are even discussing stopping recruitment in the UK in reaction to Brexit.
How not to gamble on the future
However, hiring in the UK will inevitably become more complicated as the government starts to dig into the specifics around which regulations to hold onto and which to scrap. This will be needed to keep us suitably in line with best practice on the continent, and identify what is likely to be tweaked to give the UK greater global appeal. These aren’t questions that it’s wise or even safe to try to assume answers to, because getting it wrong could prove costly.
Instead, a lot of companies are taking a middle approach, by trying to walk the line between cost efficiencies and covering all eventualities. A good example is the increase in UK FS giants opening up satellite units with head office potential in places like Frankfurt. In the current regulatory environment, it can take as long as two years to get an office fully functional in some European markets, so waiting to see what happens isn’t an option. If the UK becomes less hospitable, the escape route has been readied. If not, then the loss is limited to the short term maintenance of an additional office. Expensive, but not a disaster.
For HR teams the challenge is even more complicated. Reining in hiring of European workers may seem like the safe option to offset risk, but doing so en masse would bottom out the jobs market and speed up the exit of those talented foreign nationals. On the other hand, leaving themselves too reliant on the skills of non-UK workers comes with its own risks, especially if any form of “hard Brexit” becomes a reality.
No margin for error
One thing that’s immediately apparent is that any hires that are made need to be as risk free as possible, which means two things: trusting a candidate’s credentials – their ability to do the job honestly, fairly and diligently – and remaining compliant whatever the situation.
This calls for a high level of due diligence to be performed on all significant hires, or indeed anyone with access to sensitive information. Whichever way the regulation goes, backtracking from the recent Senior Managers Regime, where all senior staff must be thoroughly vetted, seems unlikely.
However, compliance with the FCA is only part of the picture. With budgets stretched by policies trying to offset risk, and growth restrained by uncertainty, a costly reputational scandal becomes an even greater concern, even if it’s not accompanied by a hefty fine.
A fork in the road
It’s going to be difficult for firms to know what the best course of action is with so much uncertainty ahead and no obvious stability on the radar. To come out the other side in the best shape, they need to forecast ahead to the regulatory landscape over the next few years.
But whether the UK develops its own unique position as a regulatory pioneer – as has been the case within the EU – or whether it aims to make itself more competitive by relaxing regulations, maintaining security precautions around the individuals at the top is one thing that’s almost guaranteed. Removing these measures would directly make banks more susceptible to malpractice, scandal and fraud, at a time when the UK is more worried than ever about its international reputation as a “strong and stable” finance hub.
