Trump’s Travel Policies Could Cost U.S. Tourism $12 Billion in 2025
by AJ Jones
A $12 Billion Warning for U.S. Tourism
It’s happening quietly, almost under the radar: America’s travel industry is starting to unravel. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, the United States could lose more than $12 billion in tourism revenue next year—a direct hit tied to Donald Trump’s intensifying rhetoric on immigration, trade, and cultural policy.
The report lands at a tense moment. Trump, now a dominant voice in the 2025 election cycle, is ramping up calls for renewed travel bans and tighter visa restrictions—moves already chilling international demand. Visitor numbers are falling. Air arrivals were down 10% in March alone. Canada, one of the U.S.'s closest travel partners, saw a 15% drop in outbound tourism to the States this spring.
And that’s just the start.
“This isn’t just political posturing—it’s real money walking away,” said Julia Simpson, CEO of the WTTC. “The U.S. risks becoming a less welcoming destination. That’s not good economics.”
The Global Message: You're Not Welcome Here
It’s not just the policies. It’s the mood. Travelers from Europe, Asia, and Latin America are increasingly reporting visa delays, extra screening, and what they describe as “unfriendly” entry procedures. A few have even called it degrading.
“You can feel the change at the border,” said Benjamín Rodríguez, a Mexico City-based travel consultant. “I used to send dozens of clients to New York every month. Now? Half of them are asking about Spain or Canada instead.”
Then there’s the cultural layer. Advocacy groups say Trump’s anti-LGBTQ+ talking points, revived state-level bans, and court challenges are reshaping America’s image abroad. People are thinking twice—not necessarily because they fear violence, but because they feel... unwelcome. “Travelers don’t separate state and federal policy,” said Cathy Renna, of the National LGBTQ Task Force. “They see a hostile legal environment and take their money elsewhere.”
From Airlines to Airbnb: A Slow Bleed Begins
You can already see the economic fallout. Air France has cut long-haul routes to U.S. cities, citing “unfavorable travel sentiment.” Airbnb, in its Q2 earnings update, noted that inbound U.S. bookings from international users were “under seasonal norms.” Hotel chains in New York, Miami, and LA are reporting drops in foreign occupancy.
It may not sound dramatic—but a few points off the top can mean billions in missed spending. The average international visitor to the U.S. drops over $4,200 per trip into the economy. Multiply that across hundreds of thousands of fewer travelers, and the numbers start to sting. “Tourism is one of America’s biggest exports,” economist Mark Zandi told CNBC. “When it shrinks, the current account weakens. That feeds into everything.”
A Missed Opportunity in a Rebounding Market
That’s the twist. Global tourism is booming again. Events are back. Flights are full. Other countries—Mexico, Japan, Canada—are seeing record demand. Only the U.S., per WTTC data, is forecast to lose ground in 2025.
“We’re absolutely seeing a change in sentiment,” said Brian Chesky, CEO of Airbnb, on a recent podcast. “When you put up walls—whether literal or legal—you lose travelers. Full stop.”
Meanwhile, countries with more welcoming visa policies are actively courting travelers the U.S. may be turning away. From expanded EU travel corridors to new marketing efforts in Asia-Pacific, the world is competing for tourist dollars—and winning. “The irony,” noted travel analyst Henry Harteveldt, “is that we’re turning people away at the exact moment they’re most ready to spend.”
Maybe none of this matters politically. Maybe the policies poll well at home. But in the real economy—on the ground, in restaurants, at airports, in hotels—the effects are already being felt. And they’re not theoretical.
You can’t measure sentiment precisely. But when it walks out of the airport and doesn’t come back? That’s measurable.
