Today Rebecca O’Keeffe, Head of Investment at interactive investor, reports on the latest market updates, with expert insight into import/exports markets and investment.
“Equity markets are under significant pressure in early trading as the global trade war is expected to come into clearer focus this month. In Europe, various leaders face acute political pressures of their own, with Angela Merkel struggling over immigration concerns and Theresa May facing another perilous month of Brexit negotiations. Previously, investors have used significant market falls as a chance to buy the dips, however, with all these headwinds, it is difficult to view current market weakness as a buying opportunity.
“After spending weeks not fully pricing in the downside risks, as investors hoped that there would be a last-minute reprieve rather than a global trade war, investors are waking up to the potential reality of a trade war and what that means for the wider markets. Falling Chinese exports will subdue the commodity markets, individual tariffs will markedly affect sectors and their wider supply chain, and the prospect of a downward spiral is very real.
“After largely surviving the pressure during the first half of the year with markets broadly unchanged, investors may find that the second half of the year, including the unpredictable summer months, may prove even more volatile than usual, delivering some opportunities, but increasing the threats for investors.”
Refugee crisis, political turbulences, economic struggles brought on by austerity and Brexit. Katina Hristova explores the crisis that the European Union has found itself in.
"The fragility of the EU is increasing. The cracks are growing in size”, warns EU Commission Chief Jean-Claude Juncker. With Italy’s Government crisis finally being resolved and the country’s shocking rejection of NGO migrant rescue boats, it has been easy to detract from the political earthquake that the third largest EU economy experienced and the quick impact that it had on the Euro. But Europe’s problems go deeper than Italy’s political turbulences. A month ago, Spain, the fourth biggest Eurozone economy, was faced with a very similar crisis and even though the country now has a new leader, analysts believe that the Spanish instability is not over yet. With the shockwaves of both countries’ political uncertainty being felt on Eurozone markets, on top of migration pitting southern Europe against the north and as the UK marches on towards Brexit whilst Trump abandons the Iran Nuclear Deal, which could mean the end of the transatlantic alliance between the US and Europe, is the EU in serious trouble?
Why is it so serious?
Billionaire Investor George Soros is one of those people that can sense when social change is needed and when the current cultural and political processes are about to collapse. A month ago, in a speech at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Soros claimed that: “for the past decade, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong”, believing that the European Union is already in the midst of an ‘existential crisis’. The post-2008 policy of economic austerity, or reducing a country’s deficits at any cost, created a conflict between Germany and Greece and worsened the relationship between wealthy and struggling EU nations, creating two classes – debtors and creditors. Greece and other debtor nations had sluggish economies and high unemployment rates, struggling to meet the conditions their creditors set, which resulted in resentment on both sides toward the European Union. Back in 2012, the European countries that struggled with immense debt, malfunctioning banks and constant budget deficits and needed help from other member countries were Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. In order to help them the creditors countries set conditions that the debtors were expected to meet, but struggled to do so. And as Soros points out: “This created a relationship that was neither voluntary nor equal – the very opposite of the credo on which the EU was based”.
Although Italy finally has a government, after nearly three months without one, the financial markets are apprehensive about what to expect next, considering the country’s €2.1 trillion debt and inflexible labour market. On 29 May, fearing the political crisis in the country, the Euro EURUSD, +0.6570% slid to a six-month low, whilst European stocks ended sharply lower, with Italy’s FTSE MIB I945, +1.43% ending 2.7% lower, building on the previous week’s sharp losses. Bill Adams, senior international economist at PNC believes that: “The situation serves as a reminder that political risk in the Euro area hasn’t gone away. Italy is not on an irrevocable road to anything at this point,” he said. “I think what is most likely is another election later this year, and what we’ve learned is that outcomes of elections are very unpredictable.”
Spain on the other hand has made huge progress since being on ‘EU life support’ when ‘its banks were sinking and ratings agencies valued its debt at a notch above junk, on a par with Azerbaijan’. Since receiving help, the country’s economy has been growing, unemployment is not as high and its credit rating has been restored. However, with the Catalonia separatism, and the parties, Podemos and Ciudadanos who have emerged to challenge the old duopoly between the Popular Party (PP) and the Socialists, the political uncertainty in the country is set to continue.
Greece has been in a permanent state of crisis for a decade now, with its current debt of 180% of its gross domestic product (in comparison, Italy's is 133%). In less than two months, on 20 August, the country is due to exit its intensive care administered by the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund. The EU will then have to come up with a new debt relief offer on the $280 billion Greece still owes – which could be challenging, as the ‘creditors’ are not in a charitable mood.
In contrast, Poland and Hungary are financially stable, however, both countries seem to be in opposition to the EU with regards to immigration, the independence of the judiciary, ‘democratic values’ and freedom of the press. Both governments have dismissed EU plans to share the burden that the Mediterranean region carries in terms of migrants arriving into these countries. In addition to this, Hungary’s Prime Minister is promoting an ‘illiberal’ alternative to European consensus, whilst Poland has sided with the US and against its European partners on a range of subjects, including the Iran sanctions and Russian gas pipelines.
And of course, let’s not forget the EU’s list of unsolved issues – the main one being Brexit. With nine months until its deadline, the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU are nowhere near finalised.
Make the EU an association that countries want to join again
Today, young people across the continent see the European Union as the enemy, whilst populist politicians have exploited these resentments, creating anti-European parties and movements.
Since its establishment, the EU, an association that was founded to offer freedom, security and justice without internal borders, has survived many turbulences. Although the current crisis is based on a number of deep-rooted problems, odds are that these challenges will be overcome. To save the EU, Soros believes that it needs to reinvent itself via a ‘genuinely grassroots effort’ which allows member countries more choice than is currently afforded.
"Instead of a multi-speed Europe, the goal should be a 'multi-track Europe' that allows member states a wider variety of choices. This would have a far-reaching beneficial effect."
And even though he isn’t offering a proposition for a bill that someone needs to draft and pass as soon as possible, he has opened a conversation - a conversation about moving away from the EU’s unsustainable structure. “The idea of Europe as an open society continues to inspire me”, says Soros. And in order to survive, it will have to reinvent itself.
According to many reports, Italy’s ongoing political failure has potential to bring the Eurozone crashing down, which in turn could cause mass impact across the globe’s economy, both short term and long term.
In a recent turnoff events, both parties Five Star Movement and Lega Nord have been committed to the Italian government following a period of limbo since the March general election. Italy currently represents almost a fifth in the Eurozone economy and is feared as “too big to be saved.” Giuseppe Conte has been appointed the interim PM.
Below Finance Monthly has collected Your Thoughts in this financial debacle, summarising some points of expertise form top reputable sources across Europe.
Daniele Fraiette, Senior Economist, Dun & Bradstreet:
Italy’s new prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, will need to try and strike a balance between reassuring European partners about Italy’s permanence in the eurozone, and the 5SM’s and NL’s overt intolerance towards European Union rules on budgets and immigration.
In the weeks before the resolution of the crisis, Italian bond yields rose to levels only seen at the peak of the debt crisis in 2012, dragging yields on other peripheral euro-zone economies’ debt higher. The spread between Italy’s 10-year government bonds and Germany’s equivalent-maturity bonds also soared, passing the 330 basis point mark. The political vacuum seems now to have been filled; however, the spread remains at levels which signal significant market concerns around the country. The end of the ECB’s bond-buying is an additional factor of concern as they could prompt a significant increase in Italy’s borrowing costs.
Italy’s overall macroeconomic environment has improved remarkably over the past years: real GDP grew by 1.5% in 2017 and looks set to expand further in the 2018-19 period, the current account surplus currently stands at around 3% of GDP and its debt service cost has dropped to below 4% of GDP, down from above 6% before the introduction for the single currency. However, at 132% of GDP, Italy’s stock of public debt is huge, and the ongoing political turmoil poses a threat to the country’s stability. Indeed, should the political crisis morph into a sovereign debt crisis, debt costs would soar and debt service become unsustainable.
If Italy defaulted on its debt (which is not Dun & Bradstreet’s baseline scenario given Italy’s strong domestic investor base), the survival of the eurozone would be irreparably compromised. There is also a risk that concerns over a possible referendum on the euro, repeatedly contemplated by the 5SM and the NL but eventually scrapped from their election manifestos, could trigger a flight of deposits from Italian banks, many of which remain saddled with high levels of non-performing loans.
Although the darkest hour of Italy’s politics seems to be over, tensions between the Italian government and the EU, as well as within the government itself, are highly likely to persist; political uncertainty will likely remain elevated in the quarters ahead and the risk of early elections constantly looming.
Roberto Sparano, Globalaw:
After the longest political crisis in Italian history, a new cabinet of ministers was appointed on Saturday. Technically, the new government needs the confidence vote of both chambers of the Italian parliament, but it seems likely that the vote will go in favour of the odd alliance between the 5stars movement and the Lega.
In the closing moments of his BBC TV commentary for the 1966 FIFA World Cup Final, Kenneth Wolstenholme said "They think it's all over," but in reality it was not! This is, more or less, what is happening now. Most Italians are happy that it is over and we are back to normal, however, in realty this is only the beginning.
Local elections are scheduled for the 10th of June, and both the Lega and M5S will campaign on different and opposite barricades. Campaigns can easily turn ugly in Italy, and the first objective of the new government will be to survive these next few weeks without any major clash between the two parties.
In fact, the new local elections will be the first referendum against Europe and the Eurozone.
As Italians, we always have difficulty owning up to our responsibilities, that is the way we are, and we have become experts in the art of shifting the blame onto others. Germany has, for many reasons, been the perfect target since the end of WWII.
The notion of external control was actually one of the factors that convinced Italian lawmakers and politicians to join the European Union in the first place. This is because, if anything goes wrong, or is hard to swallow and unpopular, the blame falls on the EU as an external body- and obviously the Germans!
This may be a hopeless situation... but it is not serious, like in the 1965 movie directed by Reinhardt.
I do not think that the Eurosceptic have been strengthened from the last Italian elections. The truth is that most people are not ashamed to feel anti-EU (given that the EU has served as a punching ball and a symbolic cradle-of-all-evil over the past decades). Two non-traditional political movements are only going to cash in on this feeling.
Italy’s political climate will have a consequential effect on the Eurozone and the European Union. I am convinced that the Lega is aware that we cannot leave the EU or the Euro (I cannot speak for the M5S since I do not think they have any policy or line at all), but they are also aware that the other Euro partners cannot afford Italy’s break from the Euro or the EU.
The current anti-European feeling will undoubtedly be used as a bargaining chip for other purposes, for example, to stop immigration or, even better, to accelerate the process of moving immigrants from Italy. If Germany and the EU play this the hard way it could be fun to watch, although, as an Italian, it will be painful. On the flip side, it could be the perfect opportunity to change the EU, although, while Lega and M5S are calling for a new and stronger Europe, nobody knows (including Lega and M5S) what a “stronger Europe” really means. My idea of a stronger Europe … I fear it is exactly the opposite of the idea of the Lega.
The situation is unpredictable, some of the measures that form part of the “Contract” between Lega and M5S could have a beneficial impact on our economy, although the Italian debt will skyrocket and in the long term, this would have a devastating effect.
The real problem will be the Italian State rating and the Italian bank rating. If the new government leads to a downgrading, the ECB will not be allowed to acquire our State bonds. Due to this, quantative easing measures will cease to help our growth, and the banks will collapse.
Italian economics are already not brilliant (that is lawyerlish for awful). We are the slowest growing European member, our private sector has never driven, and our banks … well our banks are declining.
We are already a supermarket for foreign corporations; Chinese, Indian, USA and other European companies have already acquired most of the jewels of the crown in terms of brand know-how, and excellence. Despite this, if anything goes wrong, we will become a discount or outlet!
On the other hand, our history shows that Italy always manages to survive, after all, on April 25th each year we celebrate the victory against nazi-fascism in WWII.
Giuliano Noci, Professor of Strategy and Marketing, Politecnico di Milano School of Management:
Following a week of political uncertainty in Italy, international financial markets are recovering well. Analysts expect that the announcement of a new government and the unlikelihood of fresh elections indicate that no further disruption will occur.
However, the root causes of how Italy landed in this particular political situation – where the young Five Star movement and Matteo Salvini’s League won more than half the votes in parliament – must not be ignored.
Both parties – although internationally scorned for Eurosceptic views – were able to gain the support of the Italian population, playing on both their emotions and feelings of insecurity. Both delivered well-designed storytelling campaigns via social media rather than mainstream media – a technique neglected by other parties.
The population’s insecurity has two main manifestations. Firstly, the feeling that the EU did not do enough to help Italy during the mass immigration of refugees of Syrian war. Secondly, the sense that the EU is failing Italy in important economic areas. Five Star promised a basic income for the unemployed whilst they train and upskill, and the League pledged to reduce the burden of fiscal taxation on companies by introducing a flat tax system.
So, are the parties reaching the core of Italy’s problems and setting out the right solutions? This is a question which deserves careful consideration. In my opinion, the parties were wrong to use aggressive tactics to fuel the debate about whether to remain in the EU. However, they were very right to suggest that the European Union must significantly change the rules of the game. We are seeing problems not only in Italy, but in Greece, Spain and perhaps even France in the imminent future.
These are signs that the Eurozone is not working, which is most likely because the Euro project is incomplete. Although we have a unique currency, there is no unique system for managing the risk of banks or the unbalanced, heterogenous economic systems of each country.
In the long run, a lack of reforms will create a bigger problem for the Eurogroup than Italy’s political situation. Change must come from within the EU following this situation and discussions of structural reforms in the banking sectors, as well as a safety net fund, must begin.
If no change occurs, the 2019 EU elections are likely to be just as complex as Italy’s.
Stephen Jones, Chief Investment Officer, Kames Capital:
Following Macron’s victory, the eurozone was the ‘good news’ story of 2017 as the area’s economy burst into life and global investors returned in droves. This year has seen economic momentum collapse sharply and, perhaps more than coincidentally, populist pressures have brought the fault lines back to the fore. For the moment this is an Italian issue but these pressures exist in most eurozone nations.
Equity markets have weakened on these changes but Italian worries have largely reinforced a trend already in place. Elevated ratings, and analysts offering a very rosy earnings outlook, left markets vulnerable to poor news and a variety of geo-political developments have emerged to offer that challenge; fat profits were there to be taken.
These risk markets setbacks have, however, taken the steam out of rising short rate and long yield forecasts and will probably succeed in ensuring that quantitative easing is continued in Europe for longer than might otherwise have been the case. When the dust settles, this should underpin equity markets, allowing progress to be made afresh and from safer levels; the positive earnings outlook offered by analysts have good real-world support.
However, to be clear, this supposes that Italy stops short of turning a drama into a crisis. Those of us of a certain vintage know well enough that Italian politics are not to be trusted.
Jordan Hiscott, Chief Trader, ayondo markets:
I was recently asked If I thought the current situation in Italy, in regard to potentially leaving the EU, was a black swan event. My response was no; a grey swan would be a much more suitable adjective to describe Italy in its current state. The ultimate definition of this would be a risk event that can be anticipated to a certain degree but still considered unlikely. A black swan being an event that is not anticipated in the slightest.
Italy has the third largest economy in the Eurozone and this political turmoil, of once again populist vote, threatens the unity of the bloc. But the situation is further exacerbated by the perilous state of Italian banks. Indeed, this is nothing new and they have been in the poor shape for a while, and the only surprising part to me is that the market hasn’t been paying attention to this, until now.
The culmination of the situation is we now have a perfect storm. Another type of a coalition government has been formed and the cynic in me looks at Italian politics on a historical basis and questions if this is this indeed the end of an unstable ruling government or in the colloquial sense, papering over the cracks? This is coupled with a worsening financial situation for the nation’s major banks. The move on Italian two-year treasury yields last week was nothing short of astounding, with the range and volatility more akin to a cryptocurrency than of a bond from a first world country.
The Italian stock market is now almost completely unchanged on a five-day basis, given it was down over 7% at once stage last week. In addition, to confirm this, EURUSD has moved from a low of 1.1520 last week to 1.1750. The next move will be key, but from my perspective I’m finding it hard to feel positive, even from a mean reversion perspective, for the pair, given the length and weighted negative implications surrounding Italy at present.
April LaRusse, Fixed Income Product Specialist, Insight Investment:
In contrast to the European sovereign crisis, Italy is now an idiosyncratic story. Across Europe, the previous crisis hit countries such as Spain, Greece and Portugal are all on an improving path, reaping the rewards of structural reforms implemented after the crisis. In Italy, pension reforms were certainly a positive step, but the country failed to undertake the deeper changes needed to sustainably raise potential growth.
The two key parties are proposing a range of expansionary fiscal measures, cutting both income and corporate taxes and proposing a minimum citizens income of €780 per month. Although more controversial measures, such as asking the European Central Bank (ECB) to write off up to €250bn of Italian debt, have been dropped, investors will be well aware that these were considered serious policy proposals by elements of the new government.
Debt/GDP will start to rise once again and credit rating agencies are likely to start to downgrade Italian debt, in contrast to the rest of Europe where credit ratings are improving. This leaves us cautious on Italian spreads, especially in an environment where we believe the ECB will be winding down its quantitative easing purchases.
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist, Capital.com:
There is a familiar feel to the catalyst behind the increased levels of volatility that traders and investors have seen across all markets, leaving some wondering if we are going to have another Eurozone crisis along the lines of that involving Greece from 2016. At this stage that does seem like an overly-pessimistic view, but it’s not hard to understand why safe-haven buying is the order of the day.
An oft-repeated phrase from past Eurozone crises was “kicking the can down the road”, referring to deferring that country’s debt obligations. This time around it feels as if the political can, rather than the financial one is being kicked into the long grass - and this is what is spooking markets. One of the main worries for traders is another election in a few months could result in a populist government that wants to renegotiate Italy’s debt with the EU. This is running at around 130% of the country’s GDP - the second highest level after, you guessed it, Greece.
The obviously immediate casualty was the euro. It had hit a three-year high against the US dollar as recently as February this year. Since then it’s dropped back by around 8% to its lowest level since last July. There is a double-whammy behind traders’ decisions to sell euros. Clearly any uncertainty about Italy’s debt repayments and the country's commitment to the single currency doesn’t inspire confidence - plus this year already we have seen a resurgence in popularity for the US dollar after its slide in 2017 was the worst performance for more than a decade. It can always be argued that the market reaction is overdone - but whilst Italy’s political future remains uncertain, it’s a brave trader who calls the bottom of this slide.
European stock markets have also been hit. The Italian market is the obvious biggest casualty and is now down by 13% in just one month - but the German and UK markets are also lower as investors adopt the familiar “risk-off” approach at the slightest whiff of a possible euro crisis. Many world stock markets already had some fragility when it comes to investor sentiment after the sharp falls seen in February and an ever-increasing oil price - it is difficult to see these recent losses being made back quickly.
While some sort of “dead cat bounce” can’t be ruled out in the days ahead, as long as this political can-kicking continues, then investors are likely to remain cautious about taking on risk - so it could be a summer of European-inspired volatility across all asset types.
Tertius Bonnin, Investment Analyst, EQ Investors:
This had been a slow moving car crash in which the signs have been there for all to see; populist parties were the clear winners of the March election (nearly three months ago) and the two largest parties, the Five Star Movement and the Northern League, had been negotiating a framework for co-governance since. Surprisingly, a number of market participants had expressed that they didn’t anticipate the “change” in attitude of the two famously Eurosceptic parties towards the euro. It should be noted that Italy isn’t new to political uncertainty, with Italian voters seeing 62 governments since 1946.
The Italian President’s veto of the proposed finance minister, Paolo Savona, and the subsequent increase in the probability of another election caused a kneejerk reaction in the markets on Monday. These moves spilled into the Tuesday session as the Monday was a bank holiday in the US and UK. Trading volumes on the Monday were therefore relatively thin in comparison. Tuesday saw huge spikes in key barometers of relative risk such as the Italian-German government bond spread (difference in yield) and the Italian two year bond yield. Global banking stocks, considered most sensitive to a change in economic activity, also sold off. Despite the so called PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) taking significant knocks, investors in relatively safe government bonds (German bunds, UK gilts and US treasuries) benefited from a “flight to safety” whereby panicked investors moved capital into less risky assets.
There had briefly been calls by the Five Star Movement’s leader to impeach President Mattarella. Under Article 90 of the Italian constitution, parliament may demand the president to step down after securing a simple majority. Italy’s constitutional court would theoretically then decide whether or not to impeach Mr Mattarella. Given the president had not violated any Italian laws, this route appeared relatively futile. On this impasse, the populist coalition appeared to have collapsed and the market took a collective sigh of relief as the Italian President moved to appoint ex-IMF director Carlo Cottarelli to run a short-term technocratic administration until the next set of elections. It should be noted that the Five Star Movement, the Northern League and Berlusconi’s party all said they would have vetoed this.
It is likely this development fed into the Northern League’s decision to call for fresh elections at a political rally, having seen an uplift of circa 8% in opinion polling. Investors once again panicked that the risk of future elections had the potential to not only reinforce the populist parties’ positions in both parliamentary chambers, but become a de facto referendum on Italy’s euro membership. After 2017 being relatively benign year for political risk, investors had been caught asleep at the wheel in terms of pricing in uncertainty in the political sphere.
By Friday the situation had turned around once again after the Italian President provided more time for the Five Star and Northern League parties to form a government; the former designate Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was sworn into office while the key Finance Minister role went to a seemingly more pro-European, Giovanni Tria, who headed the Economy Faculty at Rome’s Tor Vergata University. Paolo Savona, the former candidate vetoed for this position will now serve as Minister for European Affairs in a sign that the new administration’s focus will be on fiscal expansion plans and rolling back reforms, rather than investor angst around fresh elections and euro membership. This rollercoaster ride in political uncertainty has been tracked by the spike in yield of the supposedly risk-free Italian government bond.
We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!
IBM announced a new technology called a crypto anchor verifier; which will allow consumers and businesses to track single object across supply chains. Forbes writer Michael del Castillo explains how this tech could disrupt different industries.
In light of Donald Trump’s dramatic withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal, Katina Hristova examines how the pullout can affect the global economy.
As with anything that he isn’t fond of, US President Donald Trump hasn’t been hiding his feelings towards the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran and the five permanent members of The United Nations Security Council plus Germany. Pulling the US out of the agreement on the nuclear programme of Iran, which was signed during Obama's time in office, is something that Trump has been threatening to do since his 2016 election campaign. And he’s only gone and done it. Earlier this month, he announced America’s immediate withdrawal, saying that the US will reimpose sweeping sanctions on Iran’s oil sector and that “Any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons could also be strongly sanctioned by the United States”. And as if this isn’t alarming enough, President Trump has also said that the US will require companies to ‘wind down’ existing contracts with Iran, which currently ranks second in the world in natural gas reserves and fourth in proven crude oil reserve, in either 90 days or 180 days. This would hinder new contracts with Iran, as well as any business operations in the country.
Since Washington’s announcement, signatories of the Iran Nuclear Deal, still committed to the agreement, have embarked on a diplomatic marathon to keep the deal alive. On 25 May, Iran, France, Britain, Germany, China and Russia met in Vienna in a bid to save the agreement.
So how will this hurt the global economy?
Deals worth billions of dollars signed by international companies with Iran are currently hanging by a thread. The main concern on a global scale is that the US’ decision threatens to cut off a proportion of the world’s crude oil supply, which has already resulted in an increase in oil prices, with crude topping $70 a barrel for the first time in four years.
Additionally, European companies like Airbus, Total, Renault and Siemens could face fines if they continue doing business with Iran. Royal Dutch Shell, who is investing in the Iranian energy sector, is potentially one of the biggest companies to be affected by Trump’s withdrawal which could put billions of dollars’ worth of trade in jeopardy. As The Guardian points out: “In December 2016, Royal Dutch Shell signed a provisional agreement to develop the Iranian oil and gas fields in South Azadegan, Yadavaran and Kish. While drilling is still a long way off, sanctions are likely to put any preparations already being made on ice.”
French company Total, who’s involved in developing the South Pars field, the world’s largest gas field in Iran, is in a similar situation.
Airbus and Boeing, two of the key players in the international aviation industry, have signed contracts worth $39 billion to sell aircraft to Iran. As The Guardian reports, the most significant deal is an agreement by IranAir to buy 100 aircraft from Airbus.
A spokesman from Airbus said that jobs would not be affected. “Our [order] backlog stands at more than 7,100 aircraft, this translates into some nine years of production at current rates. We’re carefully analysing the announcement and will be evaluating next steps consistent with our internal policies and in full compliance with sanctions and export control regulations. This will take some time”. Rolls Royce is also expected to be indirectly affected if Airbus loses its IranAir order, as the company is the key engines provider to many of those aircraft models.
Another European company that will be hurt by the sanctions announcement is French Renault and PSA, who owns Peugeot, Citroën and Vauxhall. When sanctions were lifted back in 2016, Renault signed a joint venture agreement with the Industrial Development & Renovation Organization of Iran (IDRO) and local vehicle importer Parto Negin Naseh, worth $778 million, to make up to 150,000 cars in Iran every year. This is one of the largest non-oil deals in Iran since sanctions on the country were lifted. Last year, local firm Iran Khodro also signed a deal with the trucks division of Mercedes-Benz, with car production scheduled for this year.
Iranian firm HiWEB has been working alongside Vodafone to modernise the country’s internet infrastructure, but it looks like the partnership will have to be reconsidered.
The consequences
The White House and President Trump appear aware of the danger that a rise in oil prices on an international level pose to the economic growth of the Trump era, however, they also seem ready to embrace the economic and geopolitical challenges that are to follow. Although the consequences of US’ Iran Deal pullout are not perfectly clear in the short term, they will undoubtedly become more visible as sanctions take effect. The deal has its flaws, however, completely withdrawing from it and threatening the US’ closest allies can only compound those issues and create new ones. It is hard to predict what will unfold from here and where Trump’s strategy will take us. The one thing that is certain though is that the world doesn’t need more hostility.
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett speaks to CNBC's Becky Quick about what he thinks about the state of the markets today.
You may think cash has come to an end, or maybe you’re on the other side of the fence, where cash is king. However, a balance is to be struck. Below WeSwap CEO Jared Jesner explains why travellers will also need cash, despite a predominantly digital economy.
Trailing closely behind Sweden and Canada, the United Kingdom is the world’s third most cashless society. According to UK Finance, cash will be used for a mere 21% of all payments by 2026. Increasingly, countries around the world are making definite moves towards a futuristic economy based on fully digital transactions for goods and services, with cash often portrayed as obsolete. In Sweden, 80% of all transactions are made by cards via the mobile payment app, Swish.
According to a report in Reuters citing the Bank for International Settlements, the study found that the use of cash is actually rising in both developed and emerging markets. “Some of the breathless commentary gives the impression that cash in the form of traditional notes and coins is going out of fashion fast,” said Hyun Song Shin, BIS economic adviser and head of research “despite all the technological improvements in payments in recent years, the use of good old-fashioned cash is still rising in most, though not all, advanced and emerging market economies.” Furthermore, the Bank for International Settlements found that in recent years, the amount of cash in circulation has increased to 9% of GDP in 2016 from 7% of GDP back in 2000. That said, the same study stated that debit and credit card payments represented 25% of GDP in 2016, up from 13% in 2000.
Cash’s resiliency comes at a time when the odds are seemingly stacked against its historically ubiquitous presence, with the critical mass of consumers owning more credit and debit cards today than ever before, using them for smaller transactions than in years past. Moreover, thanks to new technologies, consumers are able to use contactless payments via their mobile devices to pay for things in record numbers. These now societal norms have led to predictions that cash is dying as the world moves to digital payments. WeSwap asserts this prediction as flawed.
Jared Jesner, CEO of WeSwap, founded his company on the notion that cash remains indispensable across the majority of countries around the world: travelers will inevitably need to access hard currency beyond UK borders, and the method with which to do so, should be fair and transparent. As the key driver of a uniquely positioned digital banking revolution sweeping the nation, Jesner demystifies the notion that cash is moving closer towards extinction, instead recognizing its unwavering importance to society in 2018.
In just three years since launching its core product, WeSwap has rapidly risen to become the world’s largest peer-to-peer currency conversion platform, also enabling users to buy-back excess currency and receive cash delivered straight to their door. Its promise to streamline the travel budgeting process, empowers tourists and business travelers to make the most of their money abroad, with users loading funds onto the WeSwap card and swapping currency directly with each other at the interbank rate with no hidden fees. The service is unique and currently used by over 400,000 UK travelers, all of which appreciate and use the notes in their wallets, coins in their purses and contactless pings of their MasterCards.
CEO of WeSwap Jared Jesner states: “Our nation loves to travel and although we are moving closer towards becoming a cashless society within our own borders, when we go abroad this all changes.”
Jesner is optimistic about the enormous potential to change the landscape of payments, having founded WeSwap to make currency exchange cheap and fair for ordinary people: “I’m incredulous to the fact that we still 'buy' money when we should just be swapping with each other.”
With Futurologists long predicting cash will one day become obsolete, contextualised by the advent of blockchain technology, mobile money and similar innovations, a transition towards a more cashless society is inevitable, but not to the extent where notes are no-more. For all the convenience that digital payments offer, many remain reluctant to fully part with their notes and coins. WeSwap believes that an emotive and security-based connection – similar to our attachment with photographs, films, books and other things of tangible value – secure the role of hard-currency in our lives, inevitably.
Current market activity indicates that cryptocurrencies are set for “another considerable surge in prices gains” in the near future and Ethereum’s price could reach $2,500 by the end of the year - but investors should exercise caution.
This forecast from Nigel Green, the founder and CEO of deVere Group, comes after a strong few days ithe cryptocurrency markets.
Mr Green, whose firm launched the cryptocurrency exchange app, deVere Crypto, comments: “Most major cryptocurrencies Current market activity indicates that cryptocurrencies are set for “another considerable surge in prices gains” in the near future and Ethereum’s price could reach $2,500 by the ehave been posting big gains over the last few days.
“Current market activity indicates that the major cryptocurrencies just like the mcdvoice has done so far that are set for another considerable surge in prices gains in the near future.”
He continues: “What’s fuelling this current rally in crypto prices? There are several key motivators.
“These include the growing integration with and adoption by major banks and other financial institutions.
“Indeed, 20 per cent of all financial firms, ranging from hedge funds to banking giants, are now considering trading digital currencies in the 12 months, according to a new Thomson Reuters survey published this week.
“Another key reason for the rally is that there’s a growing awareness of the need and demand for digital, global currencies in a digitalised, globalised world.
“The upward trend is also being triggered by regulation, which most experts now believe is inevitable. This will give investors even more protection and long-term confidence in the market.”
The deVere CEO believes that despite Bitcoin taking the headlines, Ethereum could be the real story here.
He notes: “It’s interesting to note that even with an impressive one-week jump of 11.3 per cent, Bitcoin - the world’s largest by market capitalisation – is the worst performer amongst the biggest cryptocurrencies.
“The price of Ethereum is predicted to increase significantly this year, and could hit $2,500 by the end of 2018 with a further increase by 2019 and 2020.
“This general upswing will be fuelled by three mains drivers. First, more and more platforms are using Ethereum as a means of trading. Second, the increased use of smart contracts by Ethereum. And third, the decentralisation of cloud computing.”
Mr Green goes on to say: “Ethereum can be expected to solidify its position as the second most valuable and used cryptocurrency token in the world. This consistency of the Ethereum token will appreciate well into the future. As entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, bankers and financial houses are looking for stability and safer trading conditions, and Ethereum is offering that security.”
Mr Green concludes: “We’re certainly entering crypto bull territory, with many retail and institutional investors now finding that cryptocurrencies can no longer ignore the opportunities.
“However, cryptocurrency markets remain volatile. Caution should be exercised and professional advice sought.”
(Source: deVere Group)
In 2018, we are witnessing the emergence of a new kind of atmosphere in the recovering oil markets. With an impending trade war between two of the world’s biggest economies on the cards, the impact of geopolitical uneasiness has never been greater. Prices have been volatile thanks to swings in oil supply and now geopolitics has created a scenario of uneasiness in one of the economy’s best performing assets.
Even though a sharp 5% rebound last month pacified stakeholders, worry looms that the US’s protectionist trade policies are only pushing China to impose further reciprocative tariffs, fueling a trade war. In addition to this, the US’s role in the Iran nuclear deal and an ever increasing American crude production (over 10 million barrels a day) gives the current market all the characteristics of an imbalance. Then there is the case of OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC producers that began to cut back production in early 2017 to ease the global glut accumulating since 2014. Where weak compliance in the past marred any significant impact on price, stronger compliance between the cartel this year appears to be bearing fruit with production at its lowest in months, however, growing tensions in the Middle East and a potential global supply-demand deficit could see the price-check contract dissolve earlier than expected.
In the highly volatile oil market, it is difficult to allocate any single catalyst to oil price movements; more often it is many catalysts working together. That said, a weak dollar, followed by geopolitical pressures in Syria, North Korea, Iran, China and an economic crisis in Venezuela, are all surprisingly giving oil the much awaited upward push, with prices peaking to a 3-year high and Brent crude finally breaking the $70 psychological mark. Interestingly, the recent Twitter feud where President Donald Trump warned Russia to prepare for a possible US missile attack on Syria has brought forth the impending reality of potential supply disruptions in the Middle-East, driving the prices to all-time highs. All this happened despite US Government data reports pointing out an unexpected rise in crude stockpiles.
Oil prices have now almost tripled the harrowing 13-year low of $26 in January 2016. Five months before that, prices were around $60. In July 2014, they had been $100, in 2011 they were $113 per barrel for Brent crude. The market dynamics have since evolved enough to cause larger fluctuations in price in the short-term, however, the long term picture is still obscure and it is hard to say if prices will go back over $100 in the coming years, though many analysts hold quite a positive outlook.
With the US oil production set to rise further in the coming months, the current market’s long-term outlook appears well supplied, a fact likely to hinder any further significant price growth of the current rally, however more short-term price spikes are quite possible considering the high probability of military action in Syria.
The key indicators for any commodity market begin at the supply-demand ratio, keeping this in mind, a number of analysts have pointed out that the increase in oil supply from US shale producers has not pushed the global supply-demand balance into surplus as previously expected, hinting at a deficit similar to the one we saw in 2011. As demand has continued to grow steadily and with production cuts undertaken by the largest oil producers in the world, we have slipped into a deficit which could potentially widen.
Even as prices recovered and US shale producers accelerated their production output, in the current
market scenario, it is quite unlikely that this alone will be enough to bring balance to the global market. While some analysts assert that OPEC will likely intervene and increase production to correct the deficit, others have claimed that given the enormous economic growth and increasing demand from large Asian countries like China and India, even OPEC will not be able to satiate demand as their output capacity is simply not enough. This also reflects the intricate position that OPEC is currently in, it could decide to cut outputs or shift towards a higher output position, both of these options carry significant risks. But we already know how important higher oil prices are for OPEC, that despite proxy wars between Saudi-Arabia and Iran in Yemen and Syria - we have strong compliance from OPEC members so far. At the same time, the unrest in the Middle-East is likely to help prices flare up, as evident in the recent spike during unsuccessful missile attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis aimed at Saudi Arabia's oil facilities. The OPEC deal runs until the end of the year and the cartel will meet again in Vienna in June to decide its next course of action.
In the longer term, there are many possibilities and sides to the story, though some stark characteristics can be set aside due to their paramount importance. Geopolitical factors and sudden financial shifts, in my view, play a major disturbance in predicting a linear development of the oil industry. Given the capital-intensive nature of the oil business, any investments in new production capacity or any change in production can take a long time. There are also a certain numbers of inelastic factors, for example capital intensity and the high ratio of fixed to variable costs in all parts of the supply chain. The price inelasticity along with advancements in technology have long been cited as the leading factors for the oil industry’s inability to conjure self-adjustment mechanism.
Keeping this in mind, we can observe that while OPEC anticipates global reserves to drop further with more output from rivals while expecting even higher global demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) claimed that by 2023 the US will become self-sufficient due to scaled up shale production, potentially becoming one of the world’s top oil producers. They also claim that demand for crude oil from OPEC will drop below current production levels within a year or two.
Which one of them is right remains to be seen but it is quite certain that the next few semesters will be crucial for the oil market which currently appears to have all the symptoms of steady turbulence.
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Guild Capital Partners Ltd., is a boutique financial services firm headquartered in Mayfair, London specialising in debt restructuring and privatisation solutions.
Founded in 2014 by financial expert and entrepreneur Marco Quaranta, the firm is led by an experienced team of senior professionals noted for their investment acumen, financial services expertise, and ability to execute complex transactions in the dynamic and highly regulated financial services sector.
Operating through decades of experience, the team specialises in evaluating solutions for Mergers & Acquisition deals, navigating regulatory scenarios and partnering with banks and other financial institutions to help build stronger and more valuable enterprises for their clients.
A series of high-profile collapses and CVAs in recent months are clear signs of the challenging conditions currently facing the UK High Street. While many retailers are facing falling sales and increased overheads, it is the stores that fail to adapt to changing consumer habits, such as Toys R Us, which end up paying the price.
By putting a strong business strategy in place to harness the growth potential of e-commerce channels, retailers can mitigate the risks posed by their rising cost base and stay ahead of competitors in this fast-moving industry.
Increased consumer caution, food price inflation and wage stagnation have all contributed to High Street incomes being squeezed. Factors such as the increased National Living Wage and minimum pension contributions, when combined with the introduction of the apprenticeship levy and higher business and property rates mean that many retailers are facing higher overheads than ever before.
The growth of the ‘bricks-to-clicks’ phenomenon has been accelerated by the rise of the ‘on-demand economy’, with consumers less willing to wait to get their hands on goods and more online retailers offering same-day delivery. Developments in technology have also streamlined the online shopping experience, with processes such as returns now easier than ever before. As a result of these changes, it is no surprise that footfall on the High Street is falling, with many shoppers choosing to avoid the crowds and find products at a competitive price online.
With consumer habits changing rapidly, it is essential that retailers build their business models accordingly. Toys R Us is a prime example of a chain which failed to move with the times. As well as relying on large, highly-stocked warehouses, which proved costly to run, it failed to invest in the development of an effective online sales channel with expedited shipping options. Securing access to customer data, via methods such as targeted marketing, will allow retail businesses to adapt quickly to new trends before they are able to have a negative impact on sales.
A number of retailers, including Mothercare, have recently announced an intention to secure a company voluntary arrangement (CVA), which could allow them to restructure their finances and agree voluntary repayment schemes with creditors on a one-to-one basis. Helping the business to continue trading and the existing management team to retain control during negotiations with creditors, this route is often viewed as a more attractive option than pre-pack and other types of administration. However, large numbers of empty stores could have the effect of driving more consumers online, away from the High Street, as well as increasing the likelihood that local councils will try to raise business rates to account for the potential shortfall in payments.
Taking action at an early stage to negotiate shorter leases with landlords could enable retailers to cut costs. Additionally, allowing companies to take advantage of the most profitable times in the retail calendar and hire staff only when needed, pop-up stores could reduce costs and increase flexibility.
Consumers are increasingly treating bricks-and-mortar stores as ‘showrooms’, allowing products to be viewed first-hand before finding them online. With this in mind, retailers should employ a joined-up approach, with on and offline sales channels. If businesses are going to encourage repeat business and meet consumer expectations in the future, simply offering a website is no longer enough. It must complement or even enhance the in-store experience, whilst reflecting the brand identity and being quick and easy to navigate. For example, we may see more customers venturing into stores for product advice, supporting the overall decision-making process, before carrying out their transactions online.
As e-commerce delivery slots become shorter and shorter, it is increasingly important for High Street retailers to have a strong logistics network in place, especially around Christmas and other key times in the retail calendar. Locating reliable local suppliers could also help to ensure supply chain agility, facilitating short lead times whilst allowing stores to vary their purchases depending on what is selling well.
While there is no doubt that these are challenging times for retailers, physical stores will continue to play an important role as part of the consumer buying process. For this reason, the High Street is unlikely to disappear completely. By heeding shifting consumer habits and adapting their business model accordingly, retailers can stay ahead of the curve and secure their position in the High Street for many years to come.
With the growing expansion of cryptocurrencies and cryptomarkets, the prospects of regulation are on the horizon. But how will the economy of crypto change in turn? Finance Monthly gains top insight from expert David Sapper, COO at Blockbid.
In recent days, Ripple – one of the world’s biggest cryptocurrencies – has urged UK regulators to take control of the crypto market in the same way Japan have, to put an end to ‘wild west’ days of crypto regulation.
Ripple, amongst many others, are calling for more control in the space to ensure risks are minimized for consumers, whilst still allowing the asset class to innovate and grow.
There is little doubt that such calls will be answered – and that increased control will be introduced in the very near future. Just last month, Chancellor Philip Hammond announced a new taskforce, whose specific role was to safeguard crypto consumers. Whilst even more recently, the FCA announced that they will publish a review in to cryptocurrencies later this year which will ‘outline policy thinking on cryptocurrencies.’
Japan has, as of yet, been at the forefront of crypto regulation – and so provides a good indication of how we can expect it to play out in the UK. There are 3.5M crypto traders active in the country, and $97BN of Bitcoin was traded in 2017 alone1. Part of the reason regulation is so active and advanced in the country is a $500M crypto theft that took place early in 2018. This sparked a selection of sixteen cryptocurrency exchanges to form a self-regulatory organization to work towards developing standards for activities around ICOs.
The re-occurring issue with heightened regulation is the potential for suffocating innovation. ICOs and alt tokens have created a fresh and straight-forward means of raising capital for budding entrepreneurs to use when building their business ideas. Therefore, it is important that regulators practice walking the line between protecting consumers and potential investors, whilst not stifling innovative and creative prospects.
For example, a country that looks to be walking said line with good success is Australia. Already there have been very direct and positive moves with regards to crypto regulation in the country, some of which are already in place. All whilst managing not to stifle or suffocate the innovators at the centre. The biggest move so far is the introduction of the need to register with AUSTRAC before being allowed to function as a crypto exchange, something we at Blockbid successfully did earlier this month. Australia were also second only to Japan in accepting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as legal tender.?
ICOs specifically require their own set of rules and guidelines. They are heavily regulated in the US and banned completely in China. Australia have set guidelines that depend on whether tokens are utility or security based. These guidelines are fairly strong, but allow companies to decide for themselves on which to go down, depending on the type of tokens they have produced.
Such an array of regulatory introductions are likely to have a real impact on companies working within the crypto-space, particularly for those that have been in action from the start, who will have to contend with rules that weren’t in place when they were starting out. However, for the most part responses from companies have been positive as the one thing everyone agrees on, is the protection of consumers is essential.
Precise details of how everything will work out remain unclear and will be revealed in time. Whilst the affects of regulation may appear as hurdles for those working in the crypto space, improved regulation will increase trust and engagement in crypto as a result. Therefore improved regulation is a step in the right direction not only for investors – but the companies behind cryptos as well.
1https://www.ccn.com/japan-leads-the-way-on-crypto-as-trading-soars/
China has been beating its currently forecast growth rate. According to official data, China's economy grew at an annual pace of 6.8% in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2017.
Over the past year China has seen national economic growth that is unparalleled and unprecedented worldwide. This week Finance Monthly set out to hear Your Thoughts on the following: Is China's economic growth rate on the rise? How resilient can Chinese business maintain current growth? Will consumer demand continue to fuel its growth spurt?
Olivier Desbarres, Managing Director, 4xGlobal Research:
With mounting concerns about the impact of potential protectionist measures on global trade and growth there has been much focus on GDP data releases for the first quarter of the year. China accounted for nearly 30% of world growth last year so Q1 numbers had top billing even if doubts remain as to the reliability of Chinese GDP data.
Chinese GDP growth remained stable in Q1 2018 at 6.8% year-on-year, in line with growth in the previous 10-quarters but marginally higher than analysts’ consensus forecasts and quite a bit faster than the government’s 6.5% target for the full-year of 2018.
The stability of Chinese growth has done little to alleviate concerns that this pace of growth may not be sustainable, given the changes in the underlying driver of growth, or even advisable going forward.
In recent years, aggressive bank lending to households, companies and local government has funded rapid investment growth, including in large infrastructural projects and the property market, and driven overall Chinese growth. Property development investment growth continues to rise at above 10% yoy.
This has led to a sharp rise in public and private sector debt as well as environmental pollution. The government has responded with a raft of measures, including a crackdown on the shadow banking sector, a tightening of real estate companies’ access to credit, a tightening of the approval of local infrastructure projects and pollution controls. These measures may in the medium-term help reduce or at least stabilise debt levels, channel funds to a manufacturing sector which has seen a rapid growth slowdown (to around 6% yoy) and reduce environmental damage. Property sales growth, a leading indicator of property investment, has indeed slowed to around 3.5% yoy.
However, near-term there are concerns that these deleveraging and environmental measures could put pressure on Chinese growth at a time when net trade’s contribution to overall Chinese growth is potentially under threat. For starters, the structural shift in China has seen buoyant consumer demand and imports curb the trade surplus. Moreover, if the war of words between the US and China over import tariffs escalates into a full-blown war China’s trade surplus could erode further and household consumption run into headwinds.
The transition from one economic model to another is challenging for any government and China’s leadership has so far avoided a potentially destabilising rapid fall in GDP growth. The increasing focus on high valued-added exports, consumption and broader quality of life indicators is unlikely to go in reverse. However, this transition may not always been smooth as policy-makers deal with the overhang from years of excessive lending and investment. This could well result in slower yet more balanced and sustainable economic growth in coming years.
David Shepherd, Visiting professor in Global Macroeconomics, Imperial College Business School:
Recent figures for Chinese GDP growth suggest the economy is expanding roughly in line with Government targets, with growth at 6.85% compared to the stated 6.5% target. Moving forward, the question is whether this kind of rate can be sustained or whether we can expect to see lower or perhaps even higher growth over the coming months and years?
The outstanding growth performance of the Chinese economy over the last 20 years stems from a successful programme of industrialisation based on market reforms, capital investment and a drive for higher exports. But that was in the past, and it is unlikely that these factors alone can be relied upon to sustain future growth, partly because of a change in the political environment in the United States, which has become increasingly antagonistic towards the Chinese trade surplus, but mainly because of purely economic factors related to high market penetration and the rise of competing low-cost producers in Asia and elsewhere. While exports and capital investment will always be important for China, if further high growth is to be sustained it will have to come either from higher domestic consumption or increased government spending.
The share of government spending in the Chinese economy is currently only 14% of GDP and the Chinese economy would undoubtedly benefit greatly from increased expenditure on health, education and other public services. While this could in principle be a significant engine for growth, in practice there are significant constraints on the ability and willingness of the government to finance increased spending, not least because of an already high fiscal deficit. The implication is that if high growth is to be sustained in the future it will almost certainly require a move towards higher consumption.
In contrast to the United States and the United Kingdom, where consumption has increased significantly over the last 20 years and now accounts for almost 70% of GDP, in China consumption spending has if anything been falling and currently accounts for only 40% of GDP. For the US and the UK, consumption is arguably too high and both economies would benefit from lower consumption and increased capital investment and exports.
In China, the opposite re-balancing is required, and the relevant consideration is how a sustainable increase in domestic consumption can be achieved. Consumption typically rises when real wages rise and when households choose to save less, but in China, saving rates are high and the share of labour income in national income has been falling. The challenge for policy makers is to find the best way to change these conditions, to reduce saving and boost wages at the expense of profits and other business incomes, all in a context of considerable uncertainty about the economic environment. It is now almost nine years since the current economic expansion began and, if history is any guide, the next recession is not too far down the road. But how that would affect China’s growth performance is another story!
Alastair Johnson, CEO and Founder, Nuggets:
Napoleon once referred to China as the ‘sleeping giant’. It’s looking, certainly in terms of its economy, like the giant is finally rearing its head. China’s unprecedented and unparallelled growth in the e-commerce sector trumps that of other nations, boasting a 35% rise in the past year (with a market twice the size of that of the rest of the world).
There is a great deal of focus, not only in online retail commerce in and of itself, but in the bridges built to link it to peripheral services. China dominates the O2O (online-to-offline) model, strengthening the connection between strictly digital commerce and brick-and-mortar merchants. Instead of displacing traditional commerce, the nation’s retail industry is instead evolving by combining physical stores with increasingly innovative online solutions.
Development of applications such as WeChat and Alipay have lead to a seamless user experience, whereby individuals can simply access stores and make purchases from within the app. It integrates with some of the biggest players in ecommerce, including the behemoths that are Alibaba, JD.com and ULE.
Worth considering on the telecommunications front is China’s plan to bootstrap a new network for 5G (versus simply building atop existing ones). Given that 80% of online purchases are done on mobile (versus under half in the rest of the world), this development will only serve to further strengthen the connection between mobile devices and e-commerce.
It’s hard to see the trend dying down anytime soon. Businesses appear to have grasped the importance of user experience, and identified the lifeblood of the industry: consumer demand. New wealth in the nation is fuelling purchasing power. To maintain this hugely successful uptrend, companies in the sector should continue to foster an ecosystem of interconnectivity, both with retailers and tech companies. Smartphone manufacturers anticipate that their growth in 2018 will be slow in China, due to saturation and slow upgrade cycles. Brands will need to look to Western markets for continued development.
Jehan Chu, Chief Strategy Officer, Caspian:
China's rise is not only measured by its achievements, but also by its insatiable appetite to develop new industries. Despite the ban on ICO's and cryptocurrency exchange trading in China, there has been a surge in interest and development in Blockchain technology - the underlying rails of crypto.
From new startups like Nervos (blockchain protocol) and veterans like Neo (US$5bil coin market cap tech) to institutions like Tencent (Blockchain as a Service) and Ping An (internal infrastructure projects), China is leading the world in developing efficient solutions using Blockchain technology. In addition, increased restrictions inside of China have spurred ambitious Chinese developers and entrepreneurs to decamp to crypto-friendly cities like Singapore and San Francisco, creating expert and cultural diaspora networks that span the globe but lead back to China.
Looking forward, it is clear that the sheer volume of engineering talent combined with its seamless adoption and endless ambition to build the new Internet on top of blockchain will keep China at the forefront of technology for decades to come.
We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!
