AD 69 was the year of Four Emperors in Rome – contenders for the Imperial Purple successively bidding the Praetorian Guard for the right to lead the Empire. The speed at which the Boris regime unravelled in July was shocking enough, but there was something redolent of Imperial back-stabbery in the way his potential successors immediately began bidding for the Dispatch Box with promises of tax cuts and balanced budgets to appeal to the 200,000 odd Conservative Party Members who notionally determine the next party leader and hence the next Prime Minister of the UK.

Much mud was slung between the contenders with accusations of every kind of chicanery – but amid the promises, threats and personal attacks, there has been precious little discussion of policy and plans to make the UK fit for purpose as a modern, stable, competitive, and fair economy. Instead, the choice boils down to a hard Brexiteer vs a we-simply-don’t-really-know Brexiteer – who will each try to appeal to the party vote on their anti-European credentials.

Determining how to put the UK on the right economic course is critical. We need a plan that addresses micro and macroeconomic issues – not political slogans; outlining the key objectives necessary for the UK to remain relevant in the modern Global Economy and how we get there.

There is absolutely no reason the UK should not succeed. Many of the key parts are in place. Our national finances were strained, but not irretrievably damaged by the pandemic. The economy is functional. There are wage inflation strains – that can be addressed. We remain a wealthy, diverse and demographically advantaged nation. The UK is strong in terms of global soft-power – and still punches above its weight in terms of military strength. The danger is that our increasingly factionalised and populist politics remain unfocused on the key economic issues to solve. These are essentially simple – and I’m sure the strategists in Treasury have already got the plans on file ready to hand out to whoever wins:

• Addressing the immediate issues of inflation, debt and growth.
• How to improve national productivity, promote invention and stimulate the innovation of new industry and business.
• Coping and paying for the threat of a global recession.
• Reopening trade with Europe to mutual advantage.
• Re-establishing energy and food security across the region.
• Addressing new threats – like a renewed refugee crisis.
• Putting in place an effective and costed energy transition policy that addresses growth alongside ESG.
• Reforming the business of government; balancing budgets, reforming the NHS, improving education and defending the nation.
• Build a more equitable society by providing social care & support, while ensuring equality and social justice?

The issues to solve range across the micro and macroeconomic spectrum - policies to boost productivity, invention, and innovation, facilitating trade and export growth, optimising tax structures, securing micro and macro funding structures, determining and funding the changing role of state and maintaining the UK’s soft and hard geopolitical power in a constantly changing world. Simples. They are long-term objectives, and all of them could be done with enough political willpower.

Boris’ swift tumble from grace will become another footnote on how all political lives are doomed to failure – and the reasons will merit little more than a footnote in the history books.

Politics is the business of being elected and staying elected. Since Brexit, making the country actually work has been somewhat neglected. Populist politics and polarisation have dominated the agenda. Even though the Tories were left internally riven by the referendum, they had two key vote winners: i) Jeremy Corbyn, the left-wing leader of the Labour party horrified many natural Labour voters, and ii) a popular populist leader in Boris Johnson who exploited his personal popularity and Corbyn’s unsuitableness to win a landslide in 2019.

Boris’ swift tumble from grace will become another footnote on how all political lives are doomed to failure – and the reasons will merit little more than a footnote in the history books. But post-Boris, the brutal reality is there are no more excuses. Conservative Politics have to deliver. The problem for the UK is there are some topics which the Conservative Party simply can no longer address or even discuss without immediately self-immolating. It has become factionalised. Either the Conservatives sort their internal division, or we need a new government pronto.

The key issue is Brexit. Six years after the Leave vote, it is still impossible to answer the “Webster Question”: Name a single thing Brexit has made better? (Full disclosure – I voted to leave.) Brexiteers will cite the UK’s swift pandemic response and the AZ vaccine – but that’s a one-off highlighting just how good the UK can be when we put our minds to it! For all the talk of opportunities, new trade deals, and money flowing back into the economy from Brussels – the only real thing Brexit has delivered thus far is hardening antipathy with Europe. Not a single major trade deal outside Europe has been agreed upon. Terms of trade and travel with Europe have got increasingly worse.

The right economic response would be to find a compromise with Europe to solve trade issues and increase trade flows – mutually beneficial. In an era when global supply chains are in flux, inflation is rampant, where energy and food security are under threat, the UK needs access – not blocks. Yet, none of the Tory contenders will dare talk about “that which cannot be named”: the UK’s ongoing relationship with Europe. To even mention a Brexit rethink or a more constructive dialogue with Brussels – is Conservative suicide. Such talk would drive the European Reform Group into apoplexy. The Brexit Taliban’s idea of engagement with Europe is to immediately refuse it. No Tory contender can dare upset them.

The second issue is the NHS. It is Europe’s largest employer and consumes state resources at a furious rate. It is becoming the black hole at the core of government spending. The Tories know to mention reform plays into the hands of Labour to accuse them of wanting to privatise the much loved (but hopelessly mismanaged) national darling – so Tory policy is to simply feed it more cash and leave reform to the next government.

Reforming the NHS can no longer be put off. Government pensions – of which the NHS is the largest part – are going to cost more and more, fuelled by inflation. It has to be reformed, made fit for purpose, and that means a new solution that rewards staff and meets the needs of patients at an affordable cost. That’s the real business of politics – making tough and hard decisions.

Cryptocurrencies followers forecast Bitcoin to replace fiat currency and become the only method of value exchange. With bitcoin induced demonetization, Bitcoin should change people’s relationship with money. The fact that people will be the owner of their money and its value is seen as one of the distinctions that will make most people avoid fiat currencies.

Bitcoin prices have become a bellwether for the market. While still difficult to nail down an exact characterization of cryptocurrency and how it fits within the modern financial pattern — whether a currency, digital asset or a commodity — by evaluating the price action in the context of its more established analogs, it becomes apparent that Bitcoin and its peers have reached significant milestones.

Apps Affiliated with Bitcoin Trading Performance

The acuteness of the cryptocurrency market has made it obligatory for traders to make quicker decisions and perform transactions faster. These demands led to the development of the Bitcoin apps to offer traders an automated trading platform and more leverage in the market.

The Bitcoin apps enhanced a unique algorithm that can interpret and process the market signals faster such as the bitcoin revolution. If the bitcoin revolution is over then the users are forced to invest from the beginning, without trying the platform first.

Cryptocurrency Crash

The price of Bitcoin has fallen from $13,200 to $9,684, with major cryptocurrency exchanges, including Coinbase, recording a 26.6% drop within a period of seven days. The recent fall of Bitcoin is widely believed to be a technical factor that was pushed by sellers who took control of the market once the dominant crypto asset went below key support levels at $11,500 and $10,500.

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Bitcoin Price Faces Third Monthly Loss of 2019

• Bitcoin is on track to test $9,000, having dived out of a narrowing price range earlier this week. The cryptocurrency is likely to end August on a negative note, having suffered losses in July and January.
• BTC may suffer a deeper price drop over the next few months, possibly to the 200-day moving average near $7,400, if prices print a UTC close below $9,049 on Saturday, confirming a bearish reversal on the monthly chart.
• A minor price bounce, possibly to the Aug. 22 low of $9,755, could be seen before a drop to $9,000, as an hourly chart indicator is reporting bullish conditions.
• The short-term bearish case would be invalidated if prices find acceptance above $ 10,280, although that looks unlikely. A weekly close above $12,000 for bullish revival, as discussed earlier this month.

Why Did Bitcoin Drop 20% in October? 

The recent rise was not a rise at all but in fact a fall. in other words, the value of Tether (controversial cryptocurrency with tokens) dropped so in order for altcoins to keep their value up they needed to rise against Tether, when bitcoin rises (assuming Tether is worth $1) altcoins seemingly rise up but not because they keep their value, in fact, they fall in value against USD and BTC but because this fall is not equal to bitcoin price rise, the final result is a rise.

For example, if bitcoin is $1000 and some altcoin is worth 0.1BTC and then bitcoin goes up to $2000 that altcoin if it remains 0.1BTC, will rise to $200 which is impossible for that coin to happen because there is nobody buying it.

What happens is that the rise of bitcoin from $1000 to $1000+ will start creating arbitrage opportunity in ALT/BTC and ALT/USD and as traders arbitrage this the final value of that coin will go somewhere between $100 and $200 and closer to lower bound. So the final result will be an altcoin worth around 0.06BTC which is a big fall but thanks to arbitrage traders the value of it rose a little to $120 in a fake manner.

Following, we are going to explain the trends that led to this massive change and what it means for young buyers.

1.  Ripple Effective

The successive cycles introduced in 1970s consist of economic houses where the property value increases first in London, this wave then goes south easy and other reasons. London always stayed at the front. However, the percentages were not always impressive.

Prices of houses in London have bee n doubled in North (Yorkshire, and Humberside).

2.  Income Growth

There have been some changes in regional prices. These are influenced by national factors like low interest rates and an increase in real incomes. The real incomes have had an impact on house prices. A 1% increase in real income will lead to a 2% increasing house prices. This is because households can afford to pay a bit more. This way, the house prices show a bit more volatility than the respective income.

3.  Supply, Demand and Other Patterns

Recently, there has been poor income growth in London. This shows that England is operating in a weak national housing environment. But it doesn’t show the regional price pattern. Internal migration patterns, supply shortages, higher demand in London also have their impact.

It's important we look closely at the southeast and see how outer London relative to inner London and South-East is as a whole. We need to focus on areas that aren’t very distant from each other. Recently, more people left London than the ones who entered it. London has attracted young people recently, but some older groups have left the city. This loss declined until 2009 but peaked once again, especially in 2016-2017.

This pattern is rather consistent and is leaving an effect on real estate prices. As a high proportion of people are leaving London to settle someone where else, there will be a fall in house prices in London as compared to the South East in the past two years.

In case if you are a young professional and looking for accommodation, you should try to find flats to rent in Edinburgh. CityLets.co.UK is a certified leading property portal that enlists properties for rent all around England. This site has been helping people finding ideal accommodation since 1999.

4.  Types of Property

The price for different types of properties increased and decreased in different patterns. Families can easily move to different locations as they can easily adjust into a different type of property.

With that said, its time we discuss the differences between prices of terraced properties in inner and outer London. This shows the inner London real estate market suffered from a drop-in value. This is once again consistency with Households moving to expensive inner regions.

5.  Investment Opportunities

Migration flow isn’t the complete story. The southeast is also suffering from shortages, but it’s time we discuss the monetary environment and low interest rates.  Housing in London is included by its role as an investment along with being a consumption good.

Investment motives for buying housing are important in other areas, but London has some special characteristics. Prices in London are more responsive to changes in interest rates than anywhere else.

Speaking of falling prices, the average flat in London costs more than £400,000. The average flat in south-east costs £200,000. Even if we ignore the massive difference, this is still beyond the resources of most first-time buyers unless they have strong additional support. In short, the price falls will unlikely to benefit first-time buyers.

The Enterprise Investment Scheme Association (EISA) has released a national and investor representative piece of research, gauging whether the British public and its investors feel that they will be wealthier in a post-Brexit UK, and how they feel the negotiations have gone.

With the date that Britain leaves the EU edging ever closer, the Enterprise Investment Scheme Association (EISA) has launched The Brexit Wealth Index 2018. Based on research conducted across a sample of 2007 respondents - of which - 1,122 were nationally representative investors, the data outlines the wealth creation opportunities available to them post-Brexit. Providing anecdotal and quantitative analysis as to whether the country will be richer after leaving the European Union, the survey specifically questions whether they feel their individual wealth will and has increased after the decision to leave was made.

Three in 10 British investors - 8.75 million - believe that securing a good deal with the European Union will be crucial to their continuing investments into UK SMEs. This is opposed to 5.75 million investors who do not agree that a good deal will affect their investments into SMEs in the future. British investors - 12.5 million of them (43%) - believe that the Government's actions affect their investment decisions more than ever before. This is opposed to four million (14%) who do not believe this to be the case. Moreover, 13 million investors believe that Brexit will not make them wealthier. This amounts to 44% of British investors, versus a fifth (19%) who believe that Brexit will make them wealthier. Of the wider sample, half of British investors - 14.5 million - believe that their wealth has not increased since the referendum decision in June 2016, while 5.5 million do believe that their wealth has increased since the vote to leave the European Union was made.

• 17 million (59%) do not think the Government is doing a good job in securing a deal for the UK’s financial services sector
• 12.5 million (43%) of British investors feel that the Government's actions now affect their investment decision more now than ever before
• 8.75 million (30%) believe that securing a good deal with the EU will be crucial to their continuing investments into UK SMEs
• Half of British investors – 14.5 million – have seen their wealth decrease since the referendum decision
• 13 million (44%) do not believe that Brexit will make them wealthier
• Nearly half (45%) - 13 million – believe that there will be a Brexit deficit which will make the UK poorer after March 2019
• Four in 10 – 11.5 million – believe that the Brexit deficit will make the UK poorer after March 2019
• A third of British investors – 10 million – feel that there will be more opportunities to invest into SMEs in post-Brexit Britain
• Four in 10 – 11.5 million British investors – feel that there will be more opportunity for wealth creation and entrepreneurship post-Brexit
• A third of British investors - 10 million – believe that there will be a Brexit dividend which will make the UK richer after March 2019.

Overwhelmingly, 17 million British investors do not think that the Government is doing a good job in securing a deal for the UK’s financial services sector. Six in 10 (59%) of respondents believe this to be true.

A third of British investors (32%) - 9.5 million – do not believe that there will be more opportunity for wealth creation and entrepreneurship post-Brexit. However, nearly four in 10, (39%) - 11.5 million – do. This sentiment continues as 10 million British investors believe that there will be more opportunities to invest into SMEs in a post-Brexit Britain while seven million disagree.

A third (34%) of respondents believe that there will be a Brexit dividend which will make the UK richer after March 2019. This amounts to 10 million British investors. However, 11.5 million – 39% of respondents – disagree with this. In fact, when asked, I feel that there will be a Brexit deficit which will make the UK poorer after March 2019, 45% of respondents – 13 million – agreed, while just over a quarter (27%) disagreed.

Mark Brownridge, Director General of the Enterprise Investment Scheme Association (EISA), commented on the results of the survey: “It is clear that from this research that British investors feel that Brexit has not made them wealthier to date, and they do not believe that it will in the future either. Moreover, they feel that our Government does not have their back, and in fact, is contributing to the negative sentiment surrounding Brexit. The fact that so many investors feel this way is going to have a knock-on impact on the rest of the country and the economy.

However, there is some positivity, with many feeling that there will be great opportunities for wealth creation, entrepreneurship, and investment into SMEs in a post-Brexit Britain. We must remain optimistic yet cautious, we need to ensure that investors have the confidence to continue to look to UK SMEs as a viable investment, and also ensure that there is enough capital for investors to reinvest back into UK businesses.’

(Source: EISA)

19^th October marks the 30^th anniversary of Black Monday, when in October 1987 stock markets around the world experienced a flash crash. The FTSE 100 fell 11% on the day, and then fell a further 12% the next day, wiping out more than a fifth of the value of the UK stock market in just two trading sessions.

As terrifying as these sharp falls were, hindsight tells us that for investors who didn’t panic, even a badly timed investment made money in the long run.

Laith Khalaf, Senior Analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown: “Stock market crashes are a bit like the Spanish Inquisition- no-one expects them. The 1987 crash is renowned for the speed and severity of the market decline, and undoubtedly when markets are plunging so sharply, it’s hard to keep a cool head.

“Hindsight clearly shows that the best strategy in these scenarios is to sit tight and not engage in panic selling. Time has a tremendous healing power when it comes to the stock market, and price falls are typically a buying opportunity. The stock market is an unusual trading venue, in that buyers tend to stay away when there’s a sale on.

“The Footsie has recently reached a new record high, which prompts the question of whether it’s heading for a fall. There are always reasons to worry about the stock market and now is no exception. The Chinese credit bubble is front and centre of concern, along with increasing global protectionism, and the disturbing prospect of World War Three being started on Twitter.

“However there are also reasons to be positive, with the global economy moving up a gear, borrowing costs remaining low, and stocks facing little competition from bonds and cash when it comes to offering a decent return.

“The market will of course take a tumble at some point, and it’s impossible to predict when. This makes being bearish an easy game, because you only have to wait so long before you are eventually proved right. The big question though, is how much you have lost out on in the meantime by sitting on your hands.

“It’s important to bear in mind that investing isn’t a one-time deal, savers typically invest at different times throughout their lives, and at different market levels, and sometimes they will be luckier with their timing than at others. To this end, a monthly savings plan takes the sting out of any market falls by buying shares at lower prices when the inevitable happens.

“The golden rule, of course, is to make sure you are investing money for the long term. In the short term the stock market is a capricious beast and can move sharply in either direction, but in the long run, it’s surprisingly consistent.”

After the crash

The table below shows stock market returns following the three big stock market falls of the last thirty years: 1987, 1999-2003 and 2007-2009.

The first column shows what you would have got by investing £10,000 on the eve of the crash, and pulling your money out at the bottom of the market. The remaining columns show what would have happened to your investment if you had held on to it. These numbers should be viewed as examples of what stock market returns have been if your timing is really pretty stinky, and you only happen to invest £10k once in your entire life, on the eve of a dramatic downdraft in the market.

In 1987 investors would have seen £10,000 reduced to £6,610 in a matter of weeks. However, if they had waited 5 years, their investment would have fully recovered, and 10 years later would be worth £32,690, with dividends reinvested. Today that investment would be worth £104,340.

Stock prices recovered pretty promptly after the 1987 crash, in contrast to the bursting of the tech bubble in 1999, which was compounded by the Enron scandal and the World Trade Centre attack, leading to a deep and prolonged bear market lasting until 2003. £10k invested in the stock market in 1999 would be worth £23,210 today, an annualised return of just over 5%.

Looking at these figures, it’s hard to dodge the conclusion that this was the worst of all three periods for stock market investors. It also contributed to the already declining fortunes of defined benefit schemes in the UK, and did huge reputational damage to insurance companies as the dreaded MVR (Market Value Reduction) became common parlance amongst hitherto happy With Profits policyholders.

The value of rolling up dividends shines through in the numbers below. Since the peak of the market in June 2007, £10,000 would only have grown to £11,890 based on stock price movements alone. But once dividends are counted and reinvested, that rises to £17,230, not a bad result given this money was invested at the peak of the market just before the global financial crisis took hold.

Is the Footsie about to crash?

The FTSE 100 reaching a new record high recently has of course prompted questions about whether it’s heading for a fall. However the level of the Footsie is not a measure of the value in UK stocks, seeing as it doesn’t take account of the level of earnings of companies in the index.

Below are two related measures of value of the UK stock market which take company earnings into account, but each give a slightly different picture of valuations in the UK stock market right now.

The headline historic P/E is elevated compared to its historic average, though still well short of the level seen in 1999.

The Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio, a valuation method championed by Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, takes a longer term view of earnings by looking over the last 10 year, which smooths out volatility in the one year P/E number.

On the cyclically adjusted measure, the UK stock market is trading below its historical average, and well below levels seen in both 1987 and 1999.

So which of these two measures should we believe? Well, we assign more weight to the Cyclically Adjusted P/E because it takes a longer term, more rounded view of stock market valuation. But if we simply take both measures into account in combination, together they suggest the market is somewhere in the middle of its historic range.

When thinking about the valuation of the stock market, it’s also worthwhile considering the valuation of alternative assets. The 10-year gilt is currently yielding 1.3%, and cash is yielding next to nothing with base rate at 0.25%. This contrasts sharply with 1987 when base rate was 9.9% and the 10-year gilt was yielding around 10%. So if you think the UK stock market’s expensive right now, then you have to take a really dim view of the value provided by bonds and cash.

(Source: Hargreaves Lansdown)

Bloomberg Profiles looks at the story of Uber's Travis Kalanick and how he went from UCLA dropout to CEO of the world's most valuable technology startup.

Video by Michael Byhoff, Eric Newcomer, Brian Schildhorn and Christian Capestany.