It was an eventful start to February for global stock markets – and here with some pointers for the first quarter and to remind us of why a long-term view is important, is Kasim Zafar, Portfolio Manager at EQ Investors.
Equity markets had a very strong start to the year, continuing their trend from 2017 and supported by robust economic and earnings growth. For the first time since September 2011, all geographic regions are achieving sustained positive earnings growth – and we see this global ‘synchronicity’ as generally being a good thing.
However, with the S&P 500 (as an example) up 7% year to date in mid-January, the magnitude of this momentum was difficult to justify. Subsequently, we have seen some violent moves in markets. In our view this was a long overdue market correction and see volatility as a healthy sign investors are taking account of the risks inherent in markets.
So our current outlook and base case remain unchanged: global growth has improved markedly and inflation expectations in Europe and the US are increasing. This has led to more hawkish rhetoric from central banks – including plans to increase interest rates and rein back on quantitative easing – but in the grand scheme of things they remain relatively accommodative.
Recently, we have marginally increased our developed equity exposure, and remain excited by developments in Japan & Europe where we are overweight our long term benchmarks. Political stability is set to continue in Japan following the re-election of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This likely means business as usual and a continuation of structural reforms feeding through into strong corporate earnings and wage growth.
And European growth prospects are now among the most exciting globally, after years lagging other developed markets. Europe is likely to benefit in a similar vein to Asia from ongoing synchronised global growth and its economic recovery is much less mature than that in the UK or the US – with low inflation suggesting that, in spite of strong growth, the economy is some way from overheating.
We still hold a slightly negative view on long duration bonds as inflation may rise in the short term – negatively impacting values. With tight credit spreads we see little value in either investment grade or high yield bonds as an asset class either. So in fixed income we continue to invest in flexible strategies that can take advantage of specific opportunities as they arise.
One impact of globalisation is that corporate revenues and earnings are increasingly spread across the globe. This has a big impact on geographic equity allocation, which has been the basis for traditional asset allocation. In short, it is far less relevant than it once was. As an example, around 80% of revenues generated by FTSE 100 companies (i.e. listed in the UK) come from overseas.
Because of this, and drawing the success of this approach with our Positive Impact Portfolios, the research team are increasingly finding interesting investment ideas from funds that invest in global themes rather than specific geographies.
Healthcare, artificial intelligence and the millennial generation are three examples and you can expect more of this ‘thematic thinking’ in our outlook going forward.
Last week, the FTSE 100 saw a late upward rush as it closed at a new record high of 7,724.22 points. This was after a fresh record high at the end of the year, spurred by a rally in mining stocks and a healthcare burst. But how will FTSE kick off the year and will it sustain its consistency in record highs throughout 2018?
According to some sources, the success of FTSE in 2018 will largely depend on the outcome of Brexit negotiations, although a rise in the pound may make it a mixed blessing. Below Finance Monthly has heard Your Thoughts, and listed several comments from top industry experts on this matter.
Jordan Hiscott, Chief Trader, ayondo markets:
I believe the FTSE 100 will go above 8,000 in 2018. In part, this is due to the current political turmoil we are experiencing, with the incumbent UK government looking increasingly unstable as each week passes, an economy that seems to be lagging behind Europe on a relative basis, and the ongoing turbulence from Brexit.
However, all these factors are already known to investors and traders and so far, the FTSE has performed well despite these fears. For 2018, I believe the Brexit turmoil will increase dramatically as negotiations with Europe continue down an incredibly fractious route.
Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, OANDA:
Two key factors contributing to the performance of the FTSE this year will be the global economy and movements in the pound. The improving global economic environment was an important driver of equity market performance in 2017 and many expect that to continue in 2018, with some potential headwinds having subsided over the last year. The FTSE 100 contains a large number of stocks that are global facing, rather than domestically reliant, and so the global economy is an important factor in its performance. Stronger economic performance is also typically associated with stronger commodity prices and with the FTSE having large exposure to these stocks, I would expect this to benefit the index.
The global exposure of the index also makes the FTSE sensitive to movements in the pound. After the Brexit vote, the FTSE continued to perform well as a weaker pound was favourable for earnings generated in other currencies. The pound has since gradually recovered in line with positive progress in Brexit negotiations and a more resilient UK economy. Should negotiations continue to make positive progress this may create a headwind for the index and offset some of the gains mentioned above. A negative turn for the negotiations though would likely weaken sterling and provide an additional positive for the index.
While many people are confident about the economy, Brexit negotiations are more uncertain and will have a significant impact on the index’s performance, as we have seen over the last 18 months.
Sophie Kennedy, Head of Research, EQ Investors:
We believe that the synchronised global growth and continued easy monetary policy should support global risk assets going forward. As such, equities should deliver a reasonable return over the next year, which will be the starting point for FTSE performance.
The deviation of FTSE performance around global equity performance will likely be a function of a few factors:
- The level of sterling is extremely important. Many FTSE companies have very global revenue streams. As such, when sterling falls, foreign earnings are inflated. The level of sterling over the next year is likely to be a function of Brexit-negotiations, the result of which we are not attempting to forecast.
- There are a number of large commodity producers in the FTSE. Their profits and share prices tend to rise and fall with the price of commodities. The oil market looks more balanced than it has previously and strong global growth should boost global commodity demand. However, we have already had a large rally since the middle of 2017, so upside is likely to be more muted.
- The trajectory of the UK economy is also relevant, particularly for the smaller capitalisation parts of the market and sectors including housebuilders and utilities. We are not hugely positive on this point, on account of the real income squeeze and continued weak investment environment.
We feel that points 1 and 2 are neutral but point 3 is negative. As such, we expect the FTSE to deliver positive returns but likely underperform the MSCI World.
Tim Sambrook, Professor of Finance, Audencia Business School:
2017 ended the year strongly and is now around all-time highs. The 7% return and 4% dividend gain was better than most had hoped. But will this positive trend continue or will investors worry about the price?
The FTSE has performed strongly, because the global economy has done well. The FTSE is largely a collection of international conglomerates who happen to be based in the UK. The political mess has had little effect on the economic environment (fortunately!).
Strangely, a poor negotiation on Brexit will have a positive effect on the FTSE (if not the UK economy) as a large part of the earnings of the larger companies are overseas. Hence a fall in sterling will lead to a boost in earnings and hence push up the price of the FTSE.
Currently there is little reason to believe that the global economy, and hence corporate earnings, will not continue to do well in 2018. The current PE of the FTSE is not cheap at around the 18-20, and is without doubt above the long-term average of around 15-16. However, this is not excessive and could even support some negative surprises this year.
However, the underpinning of the current bull market has been dividend yields. The FTSE is currently offering 4% and is likely to increase over the coming year, with many of the large caps having excess liquidity. This is very attractive compared to other assets, particular as we shall be expecting higher rates in the future. The large number of income seekers are likely to increase the positions in the FTSE this year rather than reduce them.
Ron William, Senior Lecturer, London Academy of Trading:
The UK’s FTSE100 was reaching all-time record highs into the New Year, fuelled by a global wave of investor euphoria. 2018 was the best start to a year for S&P500 since 1999, marked by the Dow’s historic break above the psychological 25K handle.
All these technical new high breakouts are being supported by the highest level of upward earnings revisions since 2011, coupled with extreme levels of market optimism last seen at the peak of Black Monday 1987.
From a behavioural standpoint, it seems that analysts and investors are silencing tail-risk concerns in a precarious trade-off for fear of missing out on the party.
The “January Effect” is part of a tried and tested maxim that states “as the first week in January goes, so does the month”; and even more importantly, “as January goes, so does the year”. So our recommendation would be to see how January plays out as a potential barometer for the next 12 months.
However, keep in mind that we still live in known unknown times; some major markets have not even had a 5% setback in 16 months and the VIX index is at new record lows.
Back to the FTSE100, all eyes remain on the next glass ceiling: 8000. While there is an increasing probability that the market will achieve this historic price target, we must also apply prudent risk management as the asymmetric risk of a violent correction remains.
The long-term 200-day average, currently at 7422, is key. Only a sustained confirmation back under here would signal a major cliff-drop ahead from very high altitudes. Brexit tail risk will more than likely continue to weigh heavily on it.
We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!
Looking back on last year's FinTech predictions, not many commentators accurately predicted where we would be entering 2017. As a professional advising both established financial institutions and new entrants, Claire sees an exciting year ahead and shares her key predictions with us.
I believe that the UK will forge ahead as a global FinTech leader despite Brexit. Building on its sandbox initiative and the signature of several FinTech co-operation agreements with regulators in the Far-East, the FCA will continue to launch progressive initiatives and reach outwards. As it did in 2016, the FCA will continue to provide leadership on global regulatory thinking and initiatives.
The growing trend of collaboration between FinTechs and incumbents will intensify in 2017. Due to a more challenging landscape for those looking to raise capital in Europe and the US, FinTechs will be increasingly willing to partner with incumbents in return for funding and market access, which will drive increased M&A activity. On the global stage, the explosion of Chinese FinTech activity and investment seen in 2016 will continue and Chinese FinTech will keep on dominating.
We will begin to see the impact of the regulatory initiatives designed to open up retail banking and payment services such as the EU's second Payment Services Directive ("PSD 2") and the UK open banking initiative. Several new intermediaries will enter the market, not just in payment services, but also across the spectrum of comparison sites and personalised financial management services. Some interesting business models and collaborations between banks and intermediaries will emerge as intermediaries own more consumer relationships.
The rise of APIs will bring increased threat of fraud and potential data breaches. The ability for consumers to share retail banking transaction data history with third parties via open APIs from January 2018 (as part of the open banking initiative) aims to stimulate competition for the benefit of consumers, but many will need comfort around security and potential for unauthorised use. Technical solutions for control of on-line use of personal data by the consumer (possibly blockchain-based) will gain traction.
Regulation of peer-to-peer lending will be tightened, impacting the existing business models and practices of some players. This, combined with a changing economic landscape, will result in casualties, but tightened regulation will also increase consumer confidence and pave the way for sustainable businesses as the market matures. One of the newly authorised UK challenger banks will team up with a peer-to-peer lender.
2017 will be the year in which Bitcoin achieves legitimacy. Overall global economic uncertainty will drive investors to look at Bitcoin as an alternative safe haven investment. The resulting increase in Bitcoin activity will in turn drive adoption, with more retailers willing to accept it and transaction volumes significantly increasing. This will move regulation of crypto-currencies up the agenda and we will see developing regulatory frameworks contributing to the legitimisation of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a new asset class.
The proliferation of blockchain applications being piloted by the banks will encounter a wave of realism as the scale of the challenge of moving from testing to real life deployment becomes apparent. The hype will subside as projects stall but investment will continue and more clarity will emerge on the applications of the technology likely to succeed and the platforms which will dominate. One of the key issues for blockchain in 2017 will be how far trust has been affected by last year's "hack" of The DAO – a crowdfunded investment community built on the Ethereum blockchain platform.
AI and Machine Learning will be big FinTech trends in 2017, encompassing everything from algorithimic trading to personal finance bots. There will be more scrutiny from regulators on how investment decisions are being made as AI and deep learning play a greater role in investment systems. 2017 will also see banks responding to rising demand from the Gen Z and millennial cohort for chatbots (most likely through integration with existing social chat channels or smart assistants).
All in all, I believe that 2017 will mark a further leap in the evolution of FinTech and the world of financial services will continue to undergo a major technology-driven change.
Financial technology has seen significant growth over the last few years, with organisations seeking to meet customers’ growing demands for more digital and mobile services. FinTech solutions that enable anytime, anywhere and any type of transacting have definitely come a long way but there’s still room to grow.
As we start off 2017, our discussions with customers and prospects, as well as our general observations suggest a few trends for the year.
Digital customer onboarding will be a top priority
Customer onboarding remains one of the few business processes yet to be fully digitised. Some financial organisations have already tried digital onboarding with low value, high volume use cases, but we are now seeing growing interest for mobile onboarding around high value transactions – typically mediated scenarios with more complex workflows. It’s because of the emergence of onboarding platforms like e-signatures that can handle sophisticated workflows and transactions, and provide the ability to connect to popular back-end technology systems, that we are seeing the shift to automate more complex onboarding scenarios.
According to Forrester Research, “Banks like Bank of America, Royal Bank of Canada, and U.S. Bank are now digitally verifying a customer’s identity and using electronic signatures to provide an instant decision on certain retail products within minutes; they are also issuing the account number in real time.”
Cyber security will be at the heart of digital transactions
Recent high-profile data breaches have focused many financial organisations on where their weaknesses lie, especially with regard to security. Organisations are reconsidering the security around each process or transaction they are taking digital. A DDoS attack in October highlighted how fragile digital transacting can be, with security often added after a hack or breach rather than upfront.
As a result, we are going to see a shift to digital processes that is rooted in transaction security. The concept of a digital trust chain that links technologies together to provide a secure transaction from end-to-end will be at the heart of digital transformation.
Mobile-first will finally become mobile-first
Mobile technology is more ubiquitous and secure than ever, and financial organisations are hard pressed to ignore the need to provide services designed primarily with the consumer’s mobile experience in mind. That’s why this will be the year that mobile-first initiatives will actually be put first.
It’s well-documented that mobile device use is on the rise, which is fuelling the need for mobile apps – to date, there are over 5 million apps available that people rely on every day, and according to Yahoo’s Flurry Analytics, 90 percent of a consumer’s mobile time is spent in apps. This staggering statistic is the driving force behind organisations’ development of mobile apps of their websites and web applications.
For financial organisations, offering a mobile-first experience also means errors can be minimized and processes can be compressed from days to single sessions. It’s all about speed, less manual work, tighter compliance and meeting expectations for a modern experience.
Artificial Intelligence will emerge but will not dominate
In its current form, artificial intelligence offers somewhat limited applications for financial services. It can easily deal with queries such as ‘How can I make a transfer between accounts’ and ‘How long does it take to process a payment’ but more detailed queries still require human interaction. However, we can already see some of benefits AI offers, namely efficiency and a more seamless user experience. For example, Swedbank’s web assistant, Nina achieved an average of 30,000 conversations per month and first-contact resolution of 78% in its first three months. Nina can handle over 350 different customer questions and answers. As the technology evolves, AI will take on more functionalities that will broaden its scope.
The rise of artificial intelligence will likely have widespread applications in financial services in future, but for now humans or a hybrid approach between automated and mediated transactions are better designed to provide the best service in most cases, something financial services organizations should remember when considering how to invest in artificial intelligence.
A simplified approach to digital transformation
Digital transformation implies that an organization needs to undertake a massive project, which can be intimidating and a potential roadblock to starting the digitisation process. However, it doesn’t have to be so complicated – digital transformation can be as simple as digitising one process or transaction across one line of business.
The best thing financial organisations can do is choose technology for digital transformation initiatives that can be built as enterprise solutions and reused across all lines of business and processes, essentially a “build once, deploy anywhere” model. This simplified approach allows businesses to take on digital transformation at a pace that works for them.
