Deutsche Bank Says Stock Market Correction Of 5-10% Likely By The Year End
On Monday, a survey conducted by Deutsche Bank revealed that investors are expecting a market correction of 5-10% by the end of the year.
In the bank’s latest survey of over 550 market professionals, it was uncovered that 58% of respondents expect a change of up to 10%. Meanwhile, 10% of respondents are forecasting a sharper sell-off in the equity market, and nearly 31% of investors believe that the markets will reach 2022 without seeing a decline.
The survey revealed that the greatest risk to the current relative market stability was new variants of the Covid-19 virus that are vaccine-resistant. 53% of survey respondents said that this was the factor that concerned them most. Other prominent concerns included economic growth that is weaker than expected, higher than anticipated inflation, a central bank policy error, and waning vaccine efficacy.
Other survey respondents also expressed concerns over the debt burden, geopolitics, fiscal policy being tightened too rapidly, and a tech bubble bursting.
The past year has seen global stock markets recover well from the pandemic due to central bank stimulus, government spending, and vaccine rollout programmes. Since the crash in March 2020, global markets have almost doubled, with the FTSE 100 is almost up 8% year-to-date.
However, economists are concerned that the recovery seen so far is beginning to lose pace as the Delta variant continues to spread across the globe. Deutsche Bank’s survey found that 44% of global investors expect lockdown restrictions to continue as they have been, while 34% of respondents believe further restrictions will be introduced.