Trump's Tariffs Set to Hit the Economy: Inflation, Job Losses, and Slow Growth Ahead.
Despite repeated assurances from the Trump administration that tariffs would boost the U.S. economy, experts now warn that the real economic fallout is just around the corner. While some key indicators like unemployment and inflation have appeared stable so far, forecasters say that’s about to change—and fast.
The damage from President Donald Trump’s trade wars is expected to surface in the coming months in the form of rising prices, slowing growth, and job losses. Trump’s aggressive tariff policies—imposed without broad consensus and often in defiance of economic logic—are set to hit everyday Americans where it hurts most: their wallets and job security.
Economic forecasters agree on one point: the warning signs are flashing. While the unemployment rate remained low at 4.2% in April, and inflation data has been soft, that calm may not last.
“We estimate sizable shocks to growth, inflation, and employment in the coming months, even as the U.S. administration reached an agreement to significantly reduce tariffs on imports from China,” wrote economists at The Conference Board, a nonprofit research group. Their latest analysis predicts that even the recent deal with China won’t be enough to shield the U.S. economy from the consequences of Trump’s tariff binge.
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According to the board, inflation is expected to accelerate in the second quarter, with “core” Personal Consumer Expenditure inflation climbing to 3.1%—up from 2.8% in the first quarter—and potentially hitting 3.3% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to start rising in the second quarter and continue climbing, reaching 4.6% by year-end.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics paint a similarly bleak picture, predicting that 40% of the tariffs’ impact on prices will hit by July, and 70% by October, translating directly into higher costs of living for American families.
They also expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.75% by the end of the year. And that’s assuming no new tariffs are imposed—an optimistic assumption given Trump’s track record of impulsive policy reversals.
Goldman Sachs analysts are also bracing for the worst, forecasting that domestic final sales will grow at a sluggish 0.7% in the second quarter—far below the over 2% growth rate seen since 2023. That suggests the U.S. economy could soon stagnate under the weight of Trump’s trade aggression.
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Despite Trump’s frequent boasts that tariffs would protect American jobs and manufacturing, the economic data increasingly tells a different story. The costs are being shouldered by American businesses and consumers, with price hikes looming and growth set to slow.
The Conference Board’s sobering conclusion: “The Conference Board estimates tariffs may substantially lower GDP growth, raise inflation, weaken the labor market, and prompt Fed rate cuts.”
For now, the Trump administration continues to claim that its trade strategy is a success. But with mounting evidence of inflationary pressure and slowing economic momentum, that narrative is wearing thin. If the current forecasts prove accurate, Trump's power plays may soon cost Americans more than just higher grocery bills—they could mean lost jobs, a sluggish economy, and yet another self-inflicted wound to U.S. global credibility.
It’s time to stop pretending that tariffs are a winning strategy. The economic storm they’re about to unleash could have been avoided—if only ideology hadn’t trumped economics.
