Fluctuations in the real estate market caused by the UK’s vote to leave the European Union are likely to be shorter-lived and less severe than many investors fear, according to LaSalle Investment Management’s mid-year Investment Strategy Annual (‘ISA’) 2016.
The correction in real estate pricing is expected to be largely restricted to the next 18 months, and medium-term capital inflows into real estate will only be interrupted, not reversed, the ISA finds. It also suggests that, given the ultra-low interest rate and bond yield environment, UK real estate yields are only expected to increase by 40-50 basis points by the end of 2017, even if the country’s political landscape remains unclear. Meanwhile in Continental European, investors will continue to edge up the risk curve as long as the economic recovery continues largely unaffected, but will have one eye on risk contagion from the UK.
Overall, the ISA suggests that some of the fears currently surrounding the real estate market in the country may be overdone. Other findings include:
-The overall impact of Brexit on the Private Rented Sector (PRS) should be limited given the ongoing undersupply.
-Real estate assets with long, index-linked leases are likely to outperform over the next few years.
-The predicted capital market re-pricing will lead to an opportune time to enter the UK market – particularly for US dollar-denominated and Japanese yen-denominated investors.
Elsewhere in Europe, the headwinds facing London’s financial markets should help support the real estate market in cities such as Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin, and to a lesser extent Amsterdam and Madrid. Even before the impact of Brexit, office demand across Europe was undergoing a strong renaissance in cities with strong trends in Demographics, Technology and Urbanisation.
Globally, the ISA says the lower for longer situation actually boosts core real estate returns in the short-run, even as it dampens the long-run outlook for rental income growth. As a result, real estate values for stabilized assets in major markets outside the UK may continue to increase or hold steady, but the cyclical recovery in fundamentals will be moving much more slowly now. At the same time, cross-border and domestic capital sources in many countries could narrow their range of target investments to focus on these traditional, core themes.
Jacques Gordon, Global Head of Research and Strategy at LaSalle, said: “Across the globe, the fundamentals of supply and demand appear to be well-balanced going into the second half of the year in most of LaSalle’s major markets. Furthermore, turmoil in capital markets might also open higher-yielding buying opportunities from distressed sellers as the implications of the Brexit vote in the UK ripple around the world. Although the UK has been the epi-centre for political and financial tremors since June 24th, the law of unintended consequences suggests that investors should also closely watch for ripple effects in the EU, North America and even all the way to Asia-Pacific.”
Mahdi Mokrane, Head of Research and Strategy for Europe at LaSalle, said: “The UK, and in particular a dynamic London, home to one of the world’s most liquid, transparent, and investor-friendly real estate markets, is likely to reinvent itself outside of the EU, and the overall prospects for the UK outside the EU could well be broadly more positive than what is implied by current market commentators.
“We expect the forecast correction in real estate pricing to be largely restricted to 2016-17 and medium-term capital inflows into real estate will only be interrupted rather than reversed”.
(Source: LaSalle)
British citizens go to the polls today voting in a historic referendum which will decide Britain’s future. According to provisional figures from the Electoral Commission, 46, 499, 537 people are entitled to take part in today’s referendum in the UK and Gibraltar – the highest number of voters ever recorded for a UK election. Polling stations opened at 07:00 BST and will close at 22:00 BST. Once the polling stations close, sealed ballot boxes will be transported to the count venues to each of the local counting areas, which include 38 local government areas in England, Scotland, Wales, and 2 in Northern Ireland and Gibraltar. The final result is expected to be revealed on Friday morning according to the Electoral Commission.
Traditionally, turnout in referendums is low – only 42 % of the population voted on a proposed new electoral system in 2011. However, analysts predict that the high-profile campaigning from the past four months is highly likely to boost figures.
Mixed predictions were offered by a final rash of polls – with two putting Leave ahead and two suggesting leads for Remain. YouGov research predicts that people supporting the Leave campaign are more likely to vote, which means that a low turnout could damage the Remain campaign’s prospects.
Politicians supporting both sides made final pitches yesterday as polls predicted the result is on a knife-edge on the final day of campaigning before the vote. PM David Cameron told supporters in Birmingham that “It is a fact that our economy will be weaker if we leave and stronger if we stay”.
Simon Michaels, Managing Partner at BDO
Mid-sized businesses in the UK have weathered the global downturn better than those in the renowned German Mittelstand, according to new figures released by business advisory and accountancy firm BDO.
BDO’s snapshot of the European mid-market shows that the turnover of the UK's mid-sized firms (€1.92 trillion) now exceeds that of the German Mittelstand (€1.78 trillion). BDO defined the mid-market as firms with turnover between £10 million - £300 million (€14 million - €414 million) annually.
Since 2009, the Mittelstand has grown by 12% compared to the mid-market by 33%. The UK has also overtaken Germany in terms of the number of people employed in their respective mid-markets – the UK employing 9.3million people compared to Germany's 9.2million.
The Mittelstand forms the backbone of the Germany economy with approximately 43,500 companies and has traditionally led the way for mid-sized businesses in Europe.
However, despite faring better through the global recession than other European financial centres, the Mittelstand is facing fierce competition from elsewhere on the continent. Mid-market growth in Italy and France has surpassed that of Germany at 16% and 20%, respectively. Although their markets may be smaller, BDO's results give a clear indication that the potential for mid-market businesses is on the up across Europe.
Simon Michaels, Managing Partner at BDO, said: "The UK mid-market is leading Europe. This is a massive achievement – one that we should be proud of, but not complacent about.
"Germany has always invested in its mid-market; it has policies directly aimed at the Mittelstand and culturally the Mittelstand stands as the economic backbone of the nation. While the UK's mid-sized businesses are worth more than the Mittelstand for the time being, there is so much more we can do to cement our position as Europe's mid-market leader."
BDO has introduced its Mid-Market Manifesto, a set of policies that could unlock the potential of the UK's mid-market, adding over £1.3 billion (€1.8 billion) to mid-sized companies' GDP contribution and creating thousands of jobs.
Some of BDO's specific policy recommendations include:
- Temporarily reducing employers' National Insurance for manufacturing companies
- Awarding government contracts on the basis of the employment and training benefits to the supply chain, not cost alone
- VAT zero rating of supplies to companies that export
