But it is also embracing some of its greatest opportunities, enabled by data ubiquity and high-speed processing. You can visit the official site of Ethereum Code to learn more about artificial intelligence's significant role in financial markets. 

AI can process large volumes of structured and unstructured data much faster than humans can, thereby helping traders make better decisions.

Analyze data and Make Decisions Faster

In a market where profit opportunities are ephemeral, it’s important to have a trading strategy that can react quickly to change. As a result, many traders now use AI algorithms to analyze data and make decisions faster than humans can. This technology can also help reduce the amount of time that traders spend on administrative tasks such as calculating trade costs and identifying market trends.

Using natural language processing, AI systems can also analyze textual data and extract valuable insights from news articles and social media posts. This technology can help identify sentiments and emotions, which may be overlooked by human analysts.

The integration of AI into financial markets has had both positive and negative consequences depending on how it is used. While it can improve the accuracy of predictions and reduce risk management costs, it also poses new challenges in terms of transparency and accountability. Consequently, it is important to consider the impact of AI before implementing it into trading strategies.

Effective Way to Increase Profits

Big data analytics is transforming many industries and financial markets are no exception. Currently, the world creates 2.5 quintillion bytes of data every day and this huge amount of information can be leveraged in a variety of ways to increase profitability.

AI algorithms can help to analyze large amounts of data and identify patterns that can improve business performance. For example, using natural language processing to read and understand news articles can enable a faster and more efficient research process for investment opportunities. Another use is in high-frequency trading, where AI algorithms can recognize trends and patterns more quickly than humans and therefore make trades more efficiently.

Respondents to this survey indicated that ML and AI are becoming essential facets of contemporary finance, aiding in refining decision-making and optimizing resource distribution (Table 2). Algorithmic trading and risk management surfaced as primary areas for ML and AI applications, reflecting the growing trend of integrating cutting-edge technology into financial markets.

Forecast Future Events and Trends

Predictive models are a subset of data analytics that forecast future events, anomalies, trends, and patterns using historical and current data. These models are often created through statistical algorithms, and some of the most popular include linear regression, logistic regression, decision trees, and neural networks.

These models can be used to predict anything from weather patterns and consumer sentiment shifts to credit risks and corporate earnings. They can help businesses identify opportunities for growth and make better decisions about what they should do next.

These predictive models are becoming increasingly useful for financial markets because of their ability to detect nonlinear characteristics and other complex relationships that humans cannot grasp easily. They can also be applied to large datasets, making it easier for companies to track customer behaviour and predict trends. This can help businesses create personalized products and services for their customers and increase profits. The models can work fast, too, so that business owners can get results in real time.

Shares in China’s second-largest property developer Evergrande have plunged by almost 17% as investors weigh up whether the company’s huge debt problems could trigger a broader sell-off across other financial markets. 

In Hong Kong on Monday, Evergrande fell to its lowest market value ever, trawling the Hang Seng index down to its lowest point in almost a year. Other large property stocks in Hong Kong, such as Henderson Land and New World Development, also saw double-figure falls in their prices on Monday amid widespread anticipation that Evergrande will default on some of its debt repayments this week. The property developer currently owes $300 billion. 

There are concerns that such a move by Evergrande could have a dramatic knock-on effect throughout the Chinese economy and even beyond. 

This contagion factor was most perceptible in Australia as the benchmark ASX200 index closed down 2.1% on Monday as investors abandoned mining stocks such as Rio and BHP. The price of iron ore — Australia’s main export — also fell by 60% from its high point back in May due to a slowdown in the Chinese property and construction industries. If Evergrande were to collapse, such issues within the sectors would only accelerate. 

The warning from Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, follows the landslide victory for Mr Johnson’s Conservative party in the UK’s general election last week in which he secured an 80-seat majority, and as stocks rose across Europe on Monday.

The Queen will officially open Parliament on Thursday, outlining her new government's legislative programme.

It is expected that the Withdrawal Agreement Bill on leaving the EU could be put before MPs as early as Friday. Nigel Green affirms: “The decisive win for the Conservatives triggered one of the pound’s biggest ever rallies, the FTSE 250 index of UK shares climbed by 3.6% and the FTSE 100 rose 1.3%.

“On Monday, European stock markets reached all-time highs.

“This has been driven in part by investors’ relief that a hung parliament had not been delivered, meaning years of uncertainty and indecisions over the UK’s way out of the EU is coming to an end. Also, perhaps, because the Conservatives promised a more pro-business agenda.”

He continues: “But Boris Johnson now has the daunting task of turning his powerful election campaign slogan of ‘Get Brexit Done’ into reality.

“When Britain leaves on January 31, there will be only 11 months to thrash out the basics of the future relationship with the European Union.

“The self-imposed end of December 2020 deadline is a mammoth challenge or Britain will fall through the ‘trap door’ of no-deal Brexit on January 1 2021.”

The Prime Minister could request another extension for the transition period. The government has until 1 July 2020 to agree with the EU a one-off extension, until the end of 2021 or 2022.

But, says Mr Green, this is unlikely. He notes: “I don’t believe that Johnson will use his significant majority to slow down or soften - the Brexit process.  

“Instead, his assumption from the election outcome will be that people want quick, easy answers.

“Indeed, in an interview on Sunday, Michael Gove guaranteed that the Brexit transition period will not be extended.”

He goes on to add: “The task ahead is monumental. The time frame in which to complete it is narrow. Failure to agree a free trade deal by the end of next year will mean the UK crashing out of the EU and all the far-reaching negative economic implications, including the likelihood of a recession.

“With such uncertainty, following the election bounce, in 2020 investor confidence in the UK is likely to remain subdued and Boris Johnson’s Brexit stance could be a major source of volatility in financial markets.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “Despite the markets currently surging, investors must avoid complacency.

“2020 promises to be a year in which political factors – including Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan and the U.S. presidential election, amongst others – could potentially spook markets.

“Investors should assess and, where necessary, rebalance their portfolios to take advantage of the potential opportunities and to mitigate the risks.”

Market Outlook

Mihir Kapadia, CEO and Founder of Sun Global Investments

When it comes to investment trends, every year appears to have a certain theme which dominates the markets and beyond throughout the course of those twelve months. 2017 was largely a stock market year, with global markets closing at record highs thanks to a booming global growth rate, loose tax and monetary policy, low volatility and ideal currency scenarios (for example, a weaker pound supporting inward investments). It was also a crazy year in the consumer segment with market momentum captivated with crypto assets, leading to established financial services firms to create special cryptocurrency desks to monitor and advise.  Today, things are looking very differently.

Markets have since moved from optimism (led by stock markets) to a cautious tone (with an eye out for safe haven assets). This is largely due to the concerns over slowing global growth rates (especially from powerhouse economies like Germany and China), volatile oil markets and Kratom Powder For Sale induces significant market threats with the likes of Brexit and the trade wars. The rising dollar has also not helped much, with Emerging Market and oil importing economies suffering with current account deficits.

At the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of the slowdown, blaming the developed world for much of the downgrade and Germany and Italy in particular. While the IMF does not foresee a recession, the risk of a sharper decline in global growth is certainly on the rise.  However, this risk sentiment doesn’t factor in any of the global triggers – a no-deal Brexit leading to UK crashing out of the EU or a greater slowdown in China’s economic output.

While the IMF does not foresee a recession, the risk of a sharper decline in global growth is certainly on the rise.

Volatility expected

 We have lowered earnings expectations globally due to more subdued revenue and margin assumptions. We believe investors will be confronted by increased volatility amid slower global economic growth, trade tensions and changing Federal Reserve policy. Our base case relies on the view that the US may enter a recession in 2020. As the market dropped 9% in December, the worst market return in any 4th Quarter post World War II, many risks are starting to be discounted by the market. We have reduced industrials, basic materials and financials due to heightened risks.

There are a number of factors that are driving this view, but it is important to note that upsides to the risks do exist:

• The Fed: The Fed’s slow pace of hiking interest rates is meant to be just enough to keep wage inflation from accelerating, but not so much that it crushes business and consumer spending. It’s a difficult balancing act.
• Fiscal stimulus: The tightening of fiscal conditions has already created a slowdown that only time and lower rates will heal. The impact from the US Government’s lower tax rates and higher spend will end when 2019 does.
• Trade and China: The lack of clarity on trade has created an ‘uncertainty tax’, forcing companies to seek alternative means of procurement, adding to inefficiencies and holding back some investment decisions. China is trying to stimulate its consumer sector, but the country is already weighed down by high debt and defaults, and it has limited ability to create demand at present.
• European politics: Brexit negotiations and Italy’s budget situation have added to the political fog affecting investor confidence.

In uncertain markets like these, we should look to do three things: reduce risk, focus on high quality and stay alert for opportunities due to dislocations.

So what do you do?

We have dialled down risk in 2018 and will likely continue to do so in 2019 as we expect global growth to slow. However, the expected volatility could cause dislocations that are not fundamentally driven, resulting in tactical opportunities to consider.

The best piece of advice to be relayed is: “Don’t run for the hills”. In uncertain markets like these, we should look to do three things: reduce risk, focus on high quality and stay alert for opportunities due to dislocations.

It would be ideal to shift allocations from cyclical to secular exposures, especially away from industrials, basic materials, semiconductors and financials due to heightened risks. It would also be ideal to focus on high-quality companies with secular growth opportunities that can generate dividends as well as capital appreciation.

Two sectors stand out as both strategically and tactically attractive - aging demographics and rapidly improving technology are paving the way for robust growth potential in healthcare. Accelerating growth in data, and the need to transmit, protect, and analyse it ever more quickly, make certain areas in technology an attractive secular opportunity as well. Where possible, our advice to investors is to maintain a tactical portion of their risk assets, because volatility may give them the opportunity to find mispriced sectors, themes and individual securities.

Still, in this climate, the bottom line is that you should be increasingly mindful of risk in your portfolio so that you can reach your long-term investment goals. 

Eastern Economies vs. Western Economies: Countries, Sectors and Projects to Watch

Dr. Johnny Hon, Founder & Chairman, The Global Group

The global economic narrative in 2018 was characterised by growing tensions between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. The US imposed 10% to 25% tariffs on Chinese goods, equivalent to more than $250bn, and China responded in kind.

This had a seismic effect on global economic growth which, according to the IMF, is expected to fall to 3.5% this year. It represents a decline from both the 3.7% rate in 2018 and the initial 3.7% rate forecast for 2019 back in October.

Although relationships between Eastern and Western economies are currently strained, suggestions that a global recession is on the horizon are exaggerated. China’s economy still experienced high growth in 2018.

However, it is clear that trade wars have no winners. The rise of protectionism in the West is creating more insular economies and we are at a time when increased efforts are needed for mutual understanding. There are still enormous opportunities across the globe: India is among several global economies showing sustained high growth, and innovations in emerging markets such as clean energy or payments systems continue to gather pace. Investors who are savvy and businesses with true entrepreneurial flare can triumph at a time when others may be stagnating.

The rise of protectionism in the West is creating more insular economies and we are at a time when increased efforts are needed for mutual understanding.

Here are the exciting countries, sectors and projects to look out for in 2019:

Countries

Recent trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) reveal a growing trend to support developing economies. In the first half of 2018, the share of global FDI to developing countries increased to a record 66%. In fact, half of the top 10 economies to receive FDI were developing countries.

This trend will accelerate in 2019 - the slow economic global growth, and subsequent currency depreciation means the potential yield on emerging market bonds is set to rise dramatically this year. More and more investors are realising the great potential of these developing economies, where the risk versus reward now looks much more attractive than it did in recent years. Asia in particular has benefited from a 2% rise in global FDI, making it the largest recipient region of FDI in the world.

India and China are both huge markets with a combined population of over 2.7 billion, and both feature in the world’s top 20 fastest growing economies. However, the sheer quantity of people doesn’t necessarily mean the countries are an easy target for investment. There are plenty of opportunities in both India and China, but it takes a shrewd investor with a good local business partner to beat the competition and find the right venture.

Other Asian economies to invest in can be found in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia and Cambodia. In a recent survey by PwC, CEOs surveyed across the Asia-Pacific region and Greater China named Vietnam as the country most likely to produce the best investment returns – above China.

Investors who are savvy and businesses with true entrepreneurial flare can triumph at a time when others may be stagnating.

Sectors

One sector in particular which remained resilient to the trade wars throughout 2018 was technology. By mid-July, flows into tech funds had already exceeded $20bn, dwarfing the previous record amount of $18.3bn raised in 2017. This was a result of the increased accessibility and popularity of technologies in business.

In the area of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for example, a Deloitte survey of US executives found that 58% had implemented six or more strains of the technology—up from 32% in 2017. This trend is likely to continue in 2019, as more businesses realise AI’s potential to reduce costs, increase business agility and support innovation.

Another sector which saw significant investment last year was pharmaceuticals and BioTech. By October, these had already reached a record high of $14 billion of VC investment in the US alone. One particular area to watch carefully, is the rising demand for products containing Cannabidiol (CBD), a natural chemical component of cannabis and hemp. Considering CBD didn't exist as a product category five years ago, its growth is remarkable. The market is expected to reach $1.91 billion by 2022 as its uses extend across a wide variety of products including oils, lotions, soaps, and beauty goods.

Projects

At a time of rising trade tensions and increased uncertainty, cross-border initiatives are helping to restore and maintain partnerships and reassure global economies. China's Belt and Road Initiative is a great example of how international communities can be brought closer together. From Southeast Asia to Eastern Europe and Africa, the multi-billion dollar network of overland corridors and maritime shipping lanes will include 71 countries once completed, accounting for half the world’s population and a quarter of the world's GDP. It is widely considered to be one of the greatest investment opportunities in decades.

The Polar Silk Road is another international trade initiative currently being explored. The Arctic offers the possibility of a strategic commercial route between Northeast Asia and Northern Europe. This would allow a vast amount of goods to flow between East and West more speedily and more efficiently than ever before. This new route would increase trading options and would make considerable improvements on journey times – cutting 12 days off traditional routes via the Indian Ocean and Suez Canal. It could also save 300 tonnes of fuel, reducing retail costs for both continents.

Since founding The Global Group - a venture capital, angel investment and strategic consultancy firm - over two decades ago, I have seen the global economic landscape change immeasurably. The company is built around the motto ‘bridging the frontiers’, and now more than ever, I believe in the importance of strong cross-border relationships. Rather than continuing to promote notions of protectionism, we must instead explore new ways of achieving mutual benefit and foster a spirit of collaboration.

Brexit, Trade Wars and the Global Economy

Robert Vaudry, Chief Investment Officer at Wesleyan

If there’s one thing that financial markets do not like, it is uncertainty - which is something that we’ve faced in abundance over the last couple of years.

The UK’s decision to leave the European Union and President Trump’s 2016 election in the US, sent shockwaves through markets, and the two years that followed saw increased volatility across asset classes. This year looks set to be fairly unpredictable too, but in my view there are likely to be three main stabilising factors. Firstly, I expect that the UK will secure some form of a Brexit deal with the EU – whatever that may look like – which will give a confidence boost to investors looking to the UK. Secondly, the trade war between America and China should also come to an end with a mutually acceptable agreement that further removes widespread market uncertainty. Thirdly, the ambiguity surrounding the US interest rate policy will abate.

The Brexit bounce

A big question mark remains over whether or not the UK is able to agree a deal with the EU ahead of the 29th March exit deadline. However, with most MPs advocating some sort of deal, it’s highly unlikely that the UK will leave without a formal agreement in place. So, what does this mean? Well, at the moment, it looks more likely than ever that the 29^th March deadline will need to be extended, unless some quick cross-party progress is made in Parliament on amendments to Theresa May’s proposed deal. While an extension would require the agreement of all EU member states, this isn’t impossible, especially given that a deal is in the EU’s best interests as the country’s closest trading partner.

The ambiguity surrounding the US interest rate policy will abate.

The result of any form of deal will be a widespread relief that should be immediately visible in the global markets. It will bring greater certainty to investors, even if the specific details of a future trading relationship between the UK and EU still need to be resolved. Recently, it was estimated that Brexit uncertainty has so far resulted in up to $1trn of assets being shifted out of the UK, and I personally don’t see this as an exaggeration. Financial markets have been cautiously factoring Brexit in since the referendum vote in 2016 and, if we can begin to see a light at the end of the Brexit tunnel, it is likely that some of these vast outflows will be reinvested back into the UK. We can also expect to see a rise in confidence among UK-based businesses and consumers, at a time when the unemployment rate in the UK is the lowest it has been since the mid-1970s.

All of these outcomes would help lead to a more buoyant UK economy and the likelihood that UK equities could outperform other equities – and asset classes – in 2019.

Trade wars – a deal on the table?

Looking further afield, the trade tensions that were increasingly evident between the US and China last year could also be defused. The last time that China agreed to a trade deal, it was in a very different economic position – very much an emerging economy, with the developed world readily importing vast quantities of textiles, electronic and manufacturing goods. However, given China’s current position as one of the world’s largest economies, it has drawn criticism from many quarters regarding unfair restrictions placed on foreign companies and alleged transfers of intellectual property.

Either way, global financial markets are eager for Washington and Beijing to reach a mutually agreeable trade deal to help stimulate the growth rates of the world’s two largest economies.

It was estimated that Brexit uncertainty has so far resulted in up to $1trn of assets being shifted out of the UK.

Be kind to the FED

2018 saw an unprecedented spat between the US President and his Head of the Federal Reserve. What began as verbal rhetoric quickly escalated into a full-frontal assault on Jerome Powell, and the markets were unimpressed. With the added uncertainty about the impact of a Democrat-led US House of Representatives, we headed into a perfect storm, and equity markets in particular rolled over in December. Ironically, this reaction, coupled with a data showing that both the US and the global economy are generally slowing down – albeit from a relatively high level – has resulted in a downward revision of any US interest rate rises in 2019. The possibility of up to four US interest rate rises of 25bps each during 2019 is now unlikely – I expect that there will only be one or two rises of the same level.

 Transitioning away from uncertainty

So, in summary, 2019 is set to be another big year for investors.

The recent protracted period of uncertainty has hit the markets hard, but we’ll have a clearer idea of what lies ahead in the coming months, particularly regarding Brexit and hopefully on the US and China’s trade relations too. If so, this greater certainty should pay dividends for investors in the years to come. UK equities are expected to strongly bounce back in 2019, which is a view that goes against the current consensus call.

Technology advances have changed every aspect of financial markets. For consumers, this transformation has made financial services more affordable, accessible and tailored to our individual needs. For financial institutions, digital tools, including emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), robotics and analytics, have delivered huge opportunities to radically improve the efficiency and effectiveness of risk management, while reducing costs and better meeting the needs of customers.

However, these advances have also raised fundamental questions around how regulation should adapt. For an industry still finalizing reforms introduced after the global financial crisis, financial technology and innovation present a new round of challenges. That’s why it’s time for financial institutions and regulators to ask: How can we build a regulatory environment fit for a digital future? Below Kara Cauter, Partner, Financial Services, Advisory Ernst & Young LLP UK, answers the hard question.

Technology’s potential to make financial markets safer

It’s inevitable that new technologies introduce new risks, and new twists on old risks, as well as different ways of working. Systems can fail and undermine market stability; machines can make decisions with unintended consequences that harm customers and markets; and the almost limitless data that is the lifeblood of the digital world can be manipulated, misused, stolen or inadvertently disguise criminal behavior. But new technologies also offer significant opportunities to improve risk management and enhance the efficiency, safety and soundness of markets and convenience to consumers.

As a result, financial services firms are constantly tapping into new tools to improve the customer experience and strengthen risk management and compliance:

• Open banking, enabled by application programming interface (API) platforms, allows multiple firms to interact, access and update data to deliver new customer services.
• A combination of algorithms and natural language processing (NLP) delivers financial advice. These advanced machines can also “read” news and digital information sources to evolve strategies, initiate trades and analyze market and customer activity.
• Distributed ledger technologies (DLT) are underpinning new methods of record-keeping, transacting and new mediums of exchange.
• AI, combined with other tools, is enhancing the scope and effectiveness of monitoring and surveillance tools that seek out fraud, market abuse and money laundering, extending the scope and quality of controls application and testing.

Regulators are also exploring how to use technology in their role:

• Using machine learning to enhance surveillance of market activity and check the validity and accuracy of reports and models that firms submit to them.
• Some are considering how digitization and automation could change the way regulations are written, distributed and complied with, while others (including governments) are incorporating centralized digital records of individual and company identities (i.e. digital passports to accelerate the onboarding of new clients to new services).
• Many regulators are establishing regulatory “sandboxes” – innovation hubs – to test new, technology-led services in safe environments, where possible harm to markets or consumers can be limited.

• New products such as cryptocurrenciesare also being analyzed to determine whether they should be covered by existing regulations for other financial activities or products, or defined as a new asset and subject to new rules.

Time to ask new questions about old risk principles

But despite positive moves to deploy technology to improve the security and efficiency of global financial markets, it’s still early days. Both industry and regulators are struggling with fundamental questions around how to identify and describe the risks posed by new technologies and new ways of doing business.

Delivering regulatory answers fit for a digital future will call on all market participants to revisit old principles, ask new questions and work together. Building a transparent, balanced, and connected risk management ecosystem will require:

• Collaboration in compliance: Scale, consistency and investment create conditions that encourage technological improvements and support market-wide benefits, as well as greater risk management. But scarce resources, limited reach and fragmented processes constrain investment by individual firms. Collaboration across the sector can overcome these issues.
• Standardization to speed the path: Digital tools are built on rules and algorithms, fed by data. But inconsistent and unclear definitions and standards for data are hampering opportunities to deploy new technology where it could be most effective: in providing market-wide services and solutions.
• Rethinking accountability and transparency to share the load: Senior bankers have no doubt that they will be held accountable for their organizations’ failings, large and small. But it’s time to rethink the parameters of accountability. When third parties have access to outsourced services data and when more decisions are made, or influenced by AI, who is responsible for breaches?
• Reassessing risk management to accelerate progress: Traditional risk management is built around quantifiable factors such as market, credit and liquidity risks. However, digitized financial markets require a reimagining of these basic principles now that risks can manifest in milliseconds and multiply exponentially, sometimes outside the control of any single person, firm, or function.
• Governing, not just mining, data: Customers see the benefits of faster, customized services enabled by open access to data, but their wariness of possible abuse is growing, and cloud solutions are adding a new dimension to the data ecosystem. Technology-led solutions to monitor, analyze, and protect data can match the scale and magnitude of these risks and enable their management.

Ultimately, as regulators and market participants navigate the FinTech landscape, they’ll need to consider how to best use and regulate the use of digital tools to deliver effective risk management and compliance – without stifling the innovation that can help deliver better and secure financial services.

By Don Smith

Despite a run of better than expected UK economic data since the Brexit vote – including 0.7% second-quarter expansion, beating estimates – financial markets are increasingly concerned about the outlook for the country’s economy and its currency.

This can be seen most dramatically in sterling’s plunge on the foreign exchanges, which shows little sign of abating. On a trade-weighted basis, the pound declined 15% between the June 23 referendum and October 12, while it has moved from 0.76 to 0.90 versus the euro over the same period.

Some bounce back from this sharp slide appears likely, but there’s little doubt that sterling’s underlying trend remains firmly downwards.

Although the UK economy should steer clear of recession, the anticipated broader effects of Brexit may soon become more evident. As a result, growth is expected to slow next year.

Consequently, the Bank of England (BoE) may cut interest rates further to provide additional support. The next move would likely be a decrease to 0.1% (from 0.25%), but this might not occur until mid-2017.

With interest rates already so low, and an uncertain path ahead for the economy, the BoE will exercise caution when deploying the dwindling number of arrows in its quiver. It will therefore likely attempt to influence interest rate expectations ahead of any actual move, continuing to issue a very dovish message to the markets.

While inflation is expected to keep rising, the BoE will continue to regard this as a short-term phenomenon, which doesn’t challenge the longer-term low-inflation outlook.

At the same time, sterling’s steep fall was largely unexpected. The pound is being driven by psychological forces, technical moves and speculative reasoning, all of which can be especially volatile and therefore very hard to predict.

The significance of the UK’s decision to leave the EU, and very likely the EU single market, is immense. According to leaked Treasury documents, a so-called “hard Brexit” could cost the UK up to €73 billion annually, leading GDP to underperform by as much as 9.5% in the coming 15 years.

It’s worth noting that the economy is highly dependent on trade and that, in contrast to the euro, the pound operates without the protection of a solid current account position. With the potential to fall a further 5-10%, sterling is thus left hugely exposed as we move into a period of major change for the UK’s network of trading relationships.

As far as its impact on the domestic economy is concerned, this is something of a double-edged sword: good for exporters but bad for consumers, whose spending power will likely weaken due to the effect of a short-term burst of higher inflation as import prices increase.

While there may be a backdrop of solid economic data, sterling remains vulnerable due to the current account position of the UK, which runs a deficit of about 7% of GDP – by far the largest in the G20 and, historically, the largest on record.

This deficit reflects, in the simplest terms, the fact that importers have to sell sterling in order to acquire the foreign currency that pays for goods and services sourced overseas.

As a result, a huge amount of sterling flows into foreign currency markets due to the sheer volume of UK imports in relation to exports. This, in turn, makes sterling’s value in the foreign exchange markets heavily reliant on the purchase of UK financial assets by overseas investors, who have to then swallow the loss.

Without these purchases, the value of sterling would fall even further. BoE Governor Mark Carney aptly captured this sense of vulnerability in his pithy comment about sterling relying on the “kindness of strangers.”

Sterling consequently now appears more vulnerable than any other major currency to investor sentiment.

In search of reasons for the pound’s recent plunge, the early October announcement by Prime Minister Theresa May that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty would be signed by the end of the first quarter of 2017 surely helped focus investor sentiment on the actual exit event.

Brexit now looks likely to happen no later than the second quarter of 2019 – although, subject to agreement with the rest of the EU, the deadline could conceivably be extended. Given the current rhetoric from key EU politicians, however, there are few signs that the bloc’s attitude to negotiations will soften.

It’s little wonder that markets are increasingly fearful.

Indeed, sterling’s recent plunge may prove just a harbinger. Today, the UK could well be enjoying the relative calm before the real storm that lies ahead.

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Mr. Smith serves as London-based Chief Investment Officer at Brown Shipley, a member of KBL European Private Bankers. The statements and views expressed in this document are those of the author as of the date of this article and are subject to change. This article is also of a general nature and does not constitute legal, accounting, tax or investment advice.