Business leaders gathered in Davos for the 45th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting have called for structural reforms to the global economy to encourage growth.
Participants in this morning’s session on The New Growth Context were told that monetary policy was not enough to encourage growth. “Policy-makers shouldn’t kid themselves,” said Axel A. Weber, Chairman of the Board of Directors, UBS, Switzerland. “They need to deliver policy reforms, not just loose monetary policy.” Weber listed labour market and pension reform as especially important, and cited Germany’s reforms under the Schröder government as an example for the rest of Europe to follow.
“Right now structural reforms are the only game in town. We need politicians to act,” added Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington DC; World Economic Forum Foundation Board Member. Zhu said that “worldwide, the whole banking sector is much stronger than a few years ago” but that “the risks have moved into the shadow banking sector.”
John Rice, Vice-Chairman, GE, Hong Kong SAR, emphasised the importance of infrastructure to global growth. “You don’t have sustainable, inclusive growth unless you have jobs, and you don’t create jobs unless you have good basic infrastructure,” he said.
David M. Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Co-Chief Executive Officer, Carlyle Group, USA, said that since governments and banks are no longer funding infrastructure investments as much as they did in the past, more and more infrastructure projects will be funded by private equity. “Right now the US seems the greatest place in the world in which to invest,” he said. However, he cautioned that economic growth there is leaving many behind, especially in middle- and lower-income groups.
Zhang Xin, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder, SOHO China, People's Republic of China; Young Global Leader Alumnus, noted that China, unlike Europe, is suffering from too much investment and not enough consumption. “How do we grow consumption? We need tax reform,” she said. Although pro-consumption reforms in China are proceeding more slowly than she would like, Xin said that “the anticorruption campaign is working very well.”
The IMF has cut its global growth forecast for 2015 to 3.5%, down 0.3% from its October prediction. It expects a lower oil price to be positive for the global economy, but to be offset by negative factors.
The IMF believes a lower oil price will stimulate more growth in advanced economies that import oil rather than in emerging economies, as the benefit feeds more directly through to consumers. In many developing nations, like India, the government subsidises energy consumption, therefore the government tends to benefit from price drops.
However, the IMF believes the US will see strong growth in 2015, helping push the global economy upwards. The US is forecast to see 3.6% growth in 2015, up 0.5% from the IMF’s October forecast.
Meanwhile the IMF sounds notes of concern over Russia, and China. The Russian economy is expected to contract by 3% in 2015, while China is expected to grow by 6.8%, a 0.3% reduction from October's forecast. This follows on official data just released showing Chinese growth slowed to 7.4% in 2014, an enviable level of growth for advanced economies, but its lowest level in 24 years.
European growth has been downgraded and is now expected to come in at 1.2%, down 0.2% from October. However, Spain provides a European bright spot, with 2% growth expected this year, up 0.3% on October's forecast. The UK is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2015, unchanged from October.
“Economic forecasts of this nature are more like a dowsing rod than a GPS tracking system, but they do confirm what market behaviour suggests- that uncertainty has increased in recent months,” said Laith Khalaf, Senior Analyst for UK-based financial service company Hargreaves Lansdown.
“The falling oil price is of course a major source of instability, though as the IMF notes this should be a boost to global economic activity, albeit with winners and losers.
“The US remains teacher's pet, with the growth forecast for the world's most influential economy revised sharply upwards. At the other end of the spectrum Russia is expected to suffer a 3% contracting in its economy over 2015, as a result of its high exposure to oil and gas production.
“While the IMF strikes a largely negative tone, stock markets have already absorbed much, if not all of the information referred to in these forecasts. For instance Russian and Chinese stocks are already looking relatively inexpensive by historical standards, while US companies are more fully valued, reflecting the respective conditions and confidence in these economies.”
2014 proved a record year in terms of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, according to data from Deloitte.
The firm stated that high M&A deal values made an emphatic return in 2014, particularly in the healthcare, TMT and consumer products sectors. In the first three quarters of 2014, companies spent US$2.5 trillion (€2.1 trillion) on M&A activities, making 2014 the best year for deals since 2007.
“The high value of deals will remain in 2015, with a cautious but steady pick-up. In 2015 I would expect to see these sectors continue to perform well, but in addition to more activity in the mining and resources sector, with speciality finance also being one to watch. By geography, the faster pace of recovery in the US over Europe will also deliver more trans-Atlantic interest in the industrial and manufacturing services,” said Paul Lupton, Head of Advisory Corporate Finance for Deloitte.
Consumer product M&A activity also saw increased activity levels in 2014. According to Deloitte, Emperado’s acquisition of Whyte & Mackay and, more recently, Yildiz’s acquisition of United Biscuits signalled the welcome return of overseas buyers making major investments in the European market. Benign credit conditions, large corporate war-chests and increased US buyer interest in Europe also point to an increase in activity levels.
Conor Cahill, Corporate Finance Partner at Deloitte, said that a number of major corporates are now re-aligning their brand portfolios and divesting non-core assets, with Reckitt Benckiser’s divestment of Ribena/Lucozade and Unilever’s disposal of its Ragu and Bertolli businesses as examples of this.
“Looking ahead, despite the easing of general commodity prices, consumer product companies continue to face pricing pressure as the intense competition between discounters and larger retailers persists. The ability to demonstrate innovation and investment will remain critical for branded goods producers to differentiate themselves from their private label counterparts,” said Mr. Cahill.
The recent release by the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) of its consultation paper on a risk-based global insurance capital standard (ICS) is the latest instalment in a multi-year programme towards developing a global standard.
However, while this is one step closer to having a clear standard that global insurers can adopt, further regulatory reform may be required to ensure that it is consistent, experts claim.
ICS will apply on a group-wide, consolidated basis to around 50 of the largest international insurance groups (IAIGs) from 2018, with confidential reporting to supervisors starting in 2017. Key areas covered by the consultation paper relate to valuation, qualifying capital resources and potential approaches for determining capital requirements.
However, KPMG warns there is still much to do, pointing out that minimum standards could leave potential for regulatory arbitrage
“We have long supported the IAIS endeavours to develop a global capital standard. However, the practical application by supervisors will be equally as important as the requirements themselves. In this regard, the interplay between the ICS and local regulatory requirements will be critical,” said Gary Reader, Global Head of Insurance, KPMG International.
“In addition, as the ICS will not apply at a legal entity level, groups will face additional challenges in managing both solo and group requirements. The minimum standard nature of the proposals will mean that local jurisdiction supervisors must demonstrate that their own regime is at least as strong as the ICS, or groups headquartered there will face an additional layer of reporting requirements, with confusion as to which becomes their binding requirement.”
Global insurers need to take note of the changes and respond to the consultation. The deadline for finalization of the ICS is December 2016.
