Market Outlook

Mihir Kapadia, CEO and Founder of Sun Global Investments

When it comes to investment trends, every year appears to have a certain theme which dominates the markets and beyond throughout the course of those twelve months. 2017 was largely a stock market year, with global markets closing at record highs thanks to a booming global growth rate, loose tax and monetary policy, low volatility and ideal currency scenarios (for example, a weaker pound supporting inward investments). It was also a crazy year in the consumer segment with market momentum captivated with crypto assets, leading to established financial services firms to create special cryptocurrency desks to monitor and advise.  Today, things are looking very differently.

Markets have since moved from optimism (led by stock markets) to a cautious tone (with an eye out for safe haven assets). This is largely due to the concerns over slowing global growth rates (especially from powerhouse economies like Germany and China), volatile oil markets and Kratom Powder For Sale induces significant market threats with the likes of Brexit and the trade wars. The rising dollar has also not helped much, with Emerging Market and oil importing economies suffering with current account deficits.

At the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of the slowdown, blaming the developed world for much of the downgrade and Germany and Italy in particular. While the IMF does not foresee a recession, the risk of a sharper decline in global growth is certainly on the rise.  However, this risk sentiment doesn’t factor in any of the global triggers – a no-deal Brexit leading to UK crashing out of the EU or a greater slowdown in China’s economic output.

While the IMF does not foresee a recession, the risk of a sharper decline in global growth is certainly on the rise.

Volatility expected

 We have lowered earnings expectations globally due to more subdued revenue and margin assumptions. We believe investors will be confronted by increased volatility amid slower global economic growth, trade tensions and changing Federal Reserve policy. Our base case relies on the view that the US may enter a recession in 2020. As the market dropped 9% in December, the worst market return in any 4th Quarter post World War II, many risks are starting to be discounted by the market. We have reduced industrials, basic materials and financials due to heightened risks.

There are a number of factors that are driving this view, but it is important to note that upsides to the risks do exist:

• The Fed: The Fed’s slow pace of hiking interest rates is meant to be just enough to keep wage inflation from accelerating, but not so much that it crushes business and consumer spending. It’s a difficult balancing act.
• Fiscal stimulus: The tightening of fiscal conditions has already created a slowdown that only time and lower rates will heal. The impact from the US Government’s lower tax rates and higher spend will end when 2019 does.
• Trade and China: The lack of clarity on trade has created an ‘uncertainty tax’, forcing companies to seek alternative means of procurement, adding to inefficiencies and holding back some investment decisions. China is trying to stimulate its consumer sector, but the country is already weighed down by high debt and defaults, and it has limited ability to create demand at present.
• European politics: Brexit negotiations and Italy’s budget situation have added to the political fog affecting investor confidence.

In uncertain markets like these, we should look to do three things: reduce risk, focus on high quality and stay alert for opportunities due to dislocations.

So what do you do?

We have dialled down risk in 2018 and will likely continue to do so in 2019 as we expect global growth to slow. However, the expected volatility could cause dislocations that are not fundamentally driven, resulting in tactical opportunities to consider.

The best piece of advice to be relayed is: “Don’t run for the hills”. In uncertain markets like these, we should look to do three things: reduce risk, focus on high quality and stay alert for opportunities due to dislocations.

It would be ideal to shift allocations from cyclical to secular exposures, especially away from industrials, basic materials, semiconductors and financials due to heightened risks. It would also be ideal to focus on high-quality companies with secular growth opportunities that can generate dividends as well as capital appreciation.

Two sectors stand out as both strategically and tactically attractive - aging demographics and rapidly improving technology are paving the way for robust growth potential in healthcare. Accelerating growth in data, and the need to transmit, protect, and analyse it ever more quickly, make certain areas in technology an attractive secular opportunity as well. Where possible, our advice to investors is to maintain a tactical portion of their risk assets, because volatility may give them the opportunity to find mispriced sectors, themes and individual securities.

Still, in this climate, the bottom line is that you should be increasingly mindful of risk in your portfolio so that you can reach your long-term investment goals. 

Eastern Economies vs. Western Economies: Countries, Sectors and Projects to Watch

Dr. Johnny Hon, Founder & Chairman, The Global Group

The global economic narrative in 2018 was characterised by growing tensions between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. The US imposed 10% to 25% tariffs on Chinese goods, equivalent to more than $250bn, and China responded in kind.

This had a seismic effect on global economic growth which, according to the IMF, is expected to fall to 3.5% this year. It represents a decline from both the 3.7% rate in 2018 and the initial 3.7% rate forecast for 2019 back in October.

Although relationships between Eastern and Western economies are currently strained, suggestions that a global recession is on the horizon are exaggerated. China’s economy still experienced high growth in 2018.

However, it is clear that trade wars have no winners. The rise of protectionism in the West is creating more insular economies and we are at a time when increased efforts are needed for mutual understanding. There are still enormous opportunities across the globe: India is among several global economies showing sustained high growth, and innovations in emerging markets such as clean energy or payments systems continue to gather pace. Investors who are savvy and businesses with true entrepreneurial flare can triumph at a time when others may be stagnating.

The rise of protectionism in the West is creating more insular economies and we are at a time when increased efforts are needed for mutual understanding.

Here are the exciting countries, sectors and projects to look out for in 2019:

Countries

Recent trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) reveal a growing trend to support developing economies. In the first half of 2018, the share of global FDI to developing countries increased to a record 66%. In fact, half of the top 10 economies to receive FDI were developing countries.

This trend will accelerate in 2019 - the slow economic global growth, and subsequent currency depreciation means the potential yield on emerging market bonds is set to rise dramatically this year. More and more investors are realising the great potential of these developing economies, where the risk versus reward now looks much more attractive than it did in recent years. Asia in particular has benefited from a 2% rise in global FDI, making it the largest recipient region of FDI in the world.

India and China are both huge markets with a combined population of over 2.7 billion, and both feature in the world’s top 20 fastest growing economies. However, the sheer quantity of people doesn’t necessarily mean the countries are an easy target for investment. There are plenty of opportunities in both India and China, but it takes a shrewd investor with a good local business partner to beat the competition and find the right venture.

Other Asian economies to invest in can be found in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia and Cambodia. In a recent survey by PwC, CEOs surveyed across the Asia-Pacific region and Greater China named Vietnam as the country most likely to produce the best investment returns – above China.

Investors who are savvy and businesses with true entrepreneurial flare can triumph at a time when others may be stagnating.

Sectors

One sector in particular which remained resilient to the trade wars throughout 2018 was technology. By mid-July, flows into tech funds had already exceeded $20bn, dwarfing the previous record amount of $18.3bn raised in 2017. This was a result of the increased accessibility and popularity of technologies in business.

In the area of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for example, a Deloitte survey of US executives found that 58% had implemented six or more strains of the technology—up from 32% in 2017. This trend is likely to continue in 2019, as more businesses realise AI’s potential to reduce costs, increase business agility and support innovation.

Another sector which saw significant investment last year was pharmaceuticals and BioTech. By October, these had already reached a record high of $14 billion of VC investment in the US alone. One particular area to watch carefully, is the rising demand for products containing Cannabidiol (CBD), a natural chemical component of cannabis and hemp. Considering CBD didn't exist as a product category five years ago, its growth is remarkable. The market is expected to reach $1.91 billion by 2022 as its uses extend across a wide variety of products including oils, lotions, soaps, and beauty goods.

Projects

At a time of rising trade tensions and increased uncertainty, cross-border initiatives are helping to restore and maintain partnerships and reassure global economies. China's Belt and Road Initiative is a great example of how international communities can be brought closer together. From Southeast Asia to Eastern Europe and Africa, the multi-billion dollar network of overland corridors and maritime shipping lanes will include 71 countries once completed, accounting for half the world’s population and a quarter of the world's GDP. It is widely considered to be one of the greatest investment opportunities in decades.

The Polar Silk Road is another international trade initiative currently being explored. The Arctic offers the possibility of a strategic commercial route between Northeast Asia and Northern Europe. This would allow a vast amount of goods to flow between East and West more speedily and more efficiently than ever before. This new route would increase trading options and would make considerable improvements on journey times – cutting 12 days off traditional routes via the Indian Ocean and Suez Canal. It could also save 300 tonnes of fuel, reducing retail costs for both continents.

Since founding The Global Group - a venture capital, angel investment and strategic consultancy firm - over two decades ago, I have seen the global economic landscape change immeasurably. The company is built around the motto ‘bridging the frontiers’, and now more than ever, I believe in the importance of strong cross-border relationships. Rather than continuing to promote notions of protectionism, we must instead explore new ways of achieving mutual benefit and foster a spirit of collaboration.

Brexit, Trade Wars and the Global Economy

Robert Vaudry, Chief Investment Officer at Wesleyan

If there’s one thing that financial markets do not like, it is uncertainty - which is something that we’ve faced in abundance over the last couple of years.

The UK’s decision to leave the European Union and President Trump’s 2016 election in the US, sent shockwaves through markets, and the two years that followed saw increased volatility across asset classes. This year looks set to be fairly unpredictable too, but in my view there are likely to be three main stabilising factors. Firstly, I expect that the UK will secure some form of a Brexit deal with the EU – whatever that may look like – which will give a confidence boost to investors looking to the UK. Secondly, the trade war between America and China should also come to an end with a mutually acceptable agreement that further removes widespread market uncertainty. Thirdly, the ambiguity surrounding the US interest rate policy will abate.

The Brexit bounce

A big question mark remains over whether or not the UK is able to agree a deal with the EU ahead of the 29th March exit deadline. However, with most MPs advocating some sort of deal, it’s highly unlikely that the UK will leave without a formal agreement in place. So, what does this mean? Well, at the moment, it looks more likely than ever that the 29^th March deadline will need to be extended, unless some quick cross-party progress is made in Parliament on amendments to Theresa May’s proposed deal. While an extension would require the agreement of all EU member states, this isn’t impossible, especially given that a deal is in the EU’s best interests as the country’s closest trading partner.

The ambiguity surrounding the US interest rate policy will abate.

The result of any form of deal will be a widespread relief that should be immediately visible in the global markets. It will bring greater certainty to investors, even if the specific details of a future trading relationship between the UK and EU still need to be resolved. Recently, it was estimated that Brexit uncertainty has so far resulted in up to $1trn of assets being shifted out of the UK, and I personally don’t see this as an exaggeration. Financial markets have been cautiously factoring Brexit in since the referendum vote in 2016 and, if we can begin to see a light at the end of the Brexit tunnel, it is likely that some of these vast outflows will be reinvested back into the UK. We can also expect to see a rise in confidence among UK-based businesses and consumers, at a time when the unemployment rate in the UK is the lowest it has been since the mid-1970s.

All of these outcomes would help lead to a more buoyant UK economy and the likelihood that UK equities could outperform other equities – and asset classes – in 2019.

Trade wars – a deal on the table?

Looking further afield, the trade tensions that were increasingly evident between the US and China last year could also be defused. The last time that China agreed to a trade deal, it was in a very different economic position – very much an emerging economy, with the developed world readily importing vast quantities of textiles, electronic and manufacturing goods. However, given China’s current position as one of the world’s largest economies, it has drawn criticism from many quarters regarding unfair restrictions placed on foreign companies and alleged transfers of intellectual property.

Either way, global financial markets are eager for Washington and Beijing to reach a mutually agreeable trade deal to help stimulate the growth rates of the world’s two largest economies.

It was estimated that Brexit uncertainty has so far resulted in up to $1trn of assets being shifted out of the UK.

Be kind to the FED

2018 saw an unprecedented spat between the US President and his Head of the Federal Reserve. What began as verbal rhetoric quickly escalated into a full-frontal assault on Jerome Powell, and the markets were unimpressed. With the added uncertainty about the impact of a Democrat-led US House of Representatives, we headed into a perfect storm, and equity markets in particular rolled over in December. Ironically, this reaction, coupled with a data showing that both the US and the global economy are generally slowing down – albeit from a relatively high level – has resulted in a downward revision of any US interest rate rises in 2019. The possibility of up to four US interest rate rises of 25bps each during 2019 is now unlikely – I expect that there will only be one or two rises of the same level.

 Transitioning away from uncertainty

So, in summary, 2019 is set to be another big year for investors.

The recent protracted period of uncertainty has hit the markets hard, but we’ll have a clearer idea of what lies ahead in the coming months, particularly regarding Brexit and hopefully on the US and China’s trade relations too. If so, this greater certainty should pay dividends for investors in the years to come. UK equities are expected to strongly bounce back in 2019, which is a view that goes against the current consensus call.

Finance Monthly speaks to the Director of the Financial Planning Program at Stephen F. Austin State University - Banker Phares, who has been licensed to practice law in the State of Texas since 1964. He was founding member of the Estate Planning and Probate Specialty for the State Bar of Texas in 1977 and still holds that specialty certification which is renewed every five years. Representing individuals, businesses, and foundations interested in charitable giving, he provides advice concerning the amount, structure, use, and deductibility of charitable gifts.

What do you think prompts charitable giving in the US?

In 2017, I wrote an article on Charitable Giving in the United States. Using a report published by Giving USA Foundation, I found that charitable gifts in the United States totaled $410.2 billion in 2017. The percentage breakdown is as follows: 70% was given by individuals, 16% by foundations, 9% by bequests at death, and 5% by corporations.

A study by The Comparative Nonprofit Sector Project sponsored by Johns Hopkins Center for Civil Society Studies made a study of the level of giving by different countries. According to that study, the level of giving is determined by comparing the giving to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a country. Using that test, individuals in the United States gave 1.85% of the GDP, Israel gave 1.34%, and Canada gave 1.17%. When volunteerism is the sole criteria, the study concludes that the Netherlands is first, followed by Sweden and then the United States.

Using a report published by Giving USA Foundation, I found that charitable gifts in the United States totaled $410.2 billion in 2017.

It is difficult to determine why a business makes a charitable contribution. From my 54 years of experience, I know that some do it for public relations purposes and some do it out of social conscience. I have listened to discussions where leadership groups “cherry pick” charitable organisations – not for altruistic purposes - but for the favorable publicity. Regardless of motive, the charities benefit.

What should businesses be mindful of when supporting charities?

Businesses should be very selective, and should examine the annual filings of the charity to determine the reputation of a charity and the amount a charity uses for charitable purposes. A large business has the opportunity to make a substantial contribution thereby allowing a charity to carry out charitable purposes it otherwise would be unable to undertake.

Businesses should be very selective, and should examine the annual filings of the charity to determine the reputation of a charity and the amount a charity uses for charitable purposes.

About Banker Phares

Banker Phares graduated from the Southern Methodist School of Law with Juris Doctor Degree in 1964, and, while there, served on Board of Editors of Southwestern Law Journal, and as a member of the Barristers. He became Board Certified in Estate Planning and Probate Law in 1977 by the State Bar of Texas. He is the Director of the Financial Planning Program at Stephen F. Austin University, and teaches in the Department of Economics and Finance. He is the John and Karen Mast Professor. He is also the Director of the Marleta Chadwick Student Financial Advisors, organised to the purpose of informing students and the public with the need for financial planning.
Banker Phares is engaged in Solo practice of law in his area of specialty with law offices in Beaumont and Nacogdoches, Texas. He has designed charitable estate plans which include gifts to universities as well as public and private foundations. He has also created public and private foundations as a component of estate plans. The gifting methods utilised include direct gifts of cash and other property to charitable lead and charitable remainder trusts, and the design of conservation easements.

The biggest risk to stock market investors right now is US Federal Reserve policy error - not a sharp bond market sell-off.

Tom Elliott, International Investment Strategist at deVere Group, is speaking out as financial markets have shown increasing nervousness in recent days.

Mr Elliott comments: “Investors in all assets can be forgiven for fearing a bond market sell-off, given the recent sharp increase in Treasury yields. Higher Treasury yields are likely to lift yields in other core government bond markets, increasing the risk-free rates that other assets have to compete against.

“But if the stock market rally is about to end, is it really going to be because bond investors become afraid of the growth and inflation risks of the strong US economy?

“This is, surely, not realistic given the modest inflation data.

“Fed chair, Jay Powell, has repeatedly made clear his nervousness of reading too much into the recent uptick in US wage growth, and the tightening labour market, which are often considered key determinates for inflation.

“Indeed, it is worth noting not only that September’s hourly wage growth, of 2.8% year-on-year, was actually lower than August’s 2.9%, but also that inflation expectations are broadly stable.

“The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE index, stands at just 2%.”

He continues: “With three more interest rate hikes expected next year, which would take the Fed’s target range to 2.75% – 3%, there is a growing risk not of inflation derailing the U.S economy, but Fed policy error whereby growth is harmed because of an overly-aggressive policy mix.

“This would include not only raising interest rates too fast, but also its quantitative tightening programme that is withdrawing $50bn a month from the U.S. economy, and so contributing to higher bond yields.”

Mr Elliott concludes: “Therefore, the risk to stock market investors comes not from a sharp bond market sell-off which raises the risk-free yields on Treasuries. It is from the Fed ignoring its chair’s own advice and tightening monetary policy faster than the American economy can stand.”

(Source: deVere Group)

Below Finance Monthly hears from Peter Snelling, principal systems engineer at leader in analytics, SAS, who has various ideas on border management that the UK and EU should look to approach.

This, and the more outward looking post-Brexit era we're facing, are just two reasons why I believe a different approach to border management, and indeed many of the activities of the Home Office and Customs, would transform efficiency. With the following capabilities in place, we’ll create a future where the departments can rate and prioritise risks in real-time, as they change, and take pre-emptive action, rather than reactive. As an example, let's apply the following ideas to the challenges of smuggling and trafficking.

The answer’s in the data

One of the major improvements the border agencies can make is to apply advanced, predictive analytics and deploy real-time risk-scoring models. Building them on historical data allows strategists and front-line operatives to apply the models’ learnings to enhance their own experience and strategies.

The alerts raised by these models can then be visualised as networks, timelines and maps – and enhanced with contextual information and intelligence.  Applied in this way resources can be better managed and frontline staff can interdict high risk goods or people promptly.  As importantly, low-risk goods and people can be processed far more swiftly.  To find the needle it's sometimes easiest to reduce the size of the haystack.

Support that capability with what-if scenario testing, and the border agencies within Home Office and HMRC – and indeed other central government organisations – will be able to model different decisions and predict their outcomes against their cost and relative merit.

A winning combination: efficiency, accuracy, affordability

However, with many millions of people and shipments moving in and out of the UK every year, some people will wonder how quickly all this analysis can happen. The answer: In a matter of minutes. Certainly, with SAS. That’s because our analytics engine is made for the big data age and can screen billions of rows of data per second.

If your next question is, "Can the analysis be thorough at speed?" the answer is a resounding yes. Take global banking giant HSBC as an example. You’ll see that SAS anti-fraud analytics screens millions of debit and credit card transactions around the world, every day. Consider the fallout you may have experienced from just one personal experience of card fraud, and you’ll know what an incredibly value-generating capability this is - both on a human level and a financial one.

For the Home Office and Customs to achieve their efficiency targets and improve operational effectiveness, advanced analytics and visualization solutions have become essential.

The global trend of the past few years towards a "low-rate, broad-base" business tax environment continues, as worldwide economic growth shows no signs of improving and countries introduce new or improved incentives to compete for business investment that will stimulate growth.

Canada isn't immune to global trends, but its tax policy direction is hard to predict at the moment due to the uncertainty around tax policy reforms being considered in the US. This is according to the EY Outlook for global tax policy in 2017, which combines insights and forecasts from EY tax policy professionals in 50 countries worldwide.

"Tax reforms emerging in Europe and the U.S. are putting pressure on governments to find creative ways to compete for business investment," says Fred O'Riordan, EY Canada's National Advisor, Tax Services. "Canada has improved its international tax competitiveness over a number of years, but it's at risk of losing some of this ground, in particular if the United States goes ahead with a tax reform package that includes significant rate reductions."

Competition for investment globally

With the implementation of the G20/Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) recommendations, governments are now more compelled to compete with each other and attract investment through different tax changes. According to EY's report, of the 50 countries surveyed, 30% intend to invest in broader business incentives to stimulate or sustain investment, and 22% plan to introduce more generous research and development (R&D) incentives in 2017.

But Canada is bucking the global trend of investment-stimulating policy. Here, the government has been more focused on the personal income tax side and redistributing the tax burden so the highest income earners bear more and middle income earners bear less.

Tax reform in the United States may impact Canada

An increased likelihood of tax policy reform in the US is strongly influencing both the Canadian and global tax policy outlook. With a Republican President and Republican control of both houses of Congress, the probability of a reform package being implemented is higher than in previous years. As a result, Canada and many other countries are taking a "wait and see" approach until new legislation is adopted in the US before they commit to any reforms themselves.

"A "border tax adjustment mechanism" is currently proposed as part of the tax reform package in the US," says O'Riordan. "Because our two economies are so closely integrated, this could have a significant impact on cross-border trade in both goods and services with our closest neighbour. Any Canadian company doing business with the US definitely ought to pay attention to upcoming changes in the US."

Corporate income tax rates

Of the 50 country respondents, 40 report no change or anticipated change to their national headline corporate income tax (CIT) rate in 2017, but rates continue to decline in a number of jurisdictions, particularly in Europe. Canada is one of only two countries where the rate actually increased (the average combined federal/provincial rate increased marginally -- by 0.2 percentage points). This in itself is unlikely to deter investment, but is still slightly out of step with global peers.

(Source: EY)