In an exclusive CNBC interview, Jack Ma, Alibaba executive chairman, talks to CNBC's David Faber about artificial intelligence and employment.

The robotic revolution is set to cause the biggest transformation in the world’s workforce since the industrial revolution. In fact, research suggests that over 30% of jobs in Britain are under threat from breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. Thanks to advances in technology, many jobs that weren’t considered ripe for automation suddenly are. Is your job next? Find out how many jobs per sector, are at high risk of being taken by robots by 2030.

(Source: RS Components)

Last week Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the G20's Financial Stability Board, Mark Carney said London is “effectively, the investment banker for Europe.”

Many believe companies and financial institutions should move their trading to the continent, while others believe this is non-sensical given London’s capital position globally and in the markets. Some companies, such as Goldman Sachs, HSBC and UBS, have already confirmed the eventual moving of staff and trade abroad, once the UK leaves the EU.

At the same time, the UK is faced with a lack of skilled labour, and due to the uncertainty surrounding changes in immigration law and the movement of employees or recruitment across the continent, bosses of big companies such as Barclays are calling for the freedom to recruit freely outside of the UK.

This week Finance Monthly hears Your Thoughts on the moving of business to the EU post-Brexit, and below are some comments from reputable sources within the business sphere.

Bertrand Lavayssiere, Managing Partner, zeb:

For those institutions with EU clients in their roster, it is more than likely that they will have to move to the EU post Brexit. However, there are a few buts…

One of the critical aspects is ‘passporting’. At present, banks can operate within the EU under UK regulations with relatively light approvals required from local regulators. This is of key importance for large sectors of the industry, such as asset management, where more than a trillion GBP is under management for EU-based investors, corporate lending, reinsurance and securities trading platforms, to name just a few. If this is maintained - which seems unlikely today - then the need to move is not crucial.

The long-standing cooperation between EU and UK regulators could ease some of the pain if governments agree that joint efforts to maintain alignment will help the overall goal of financial stability. Furthermore, many of the pertinent regulations are global anyway - those from the Basel Committee or the IASB, for example.

With regards to the London market, there are a number of platforms for specific product lines (foreign exchanges, swap contracts, equity derivatives, etc.) to facilitate compensation, settlements of trades among market players, and volumes to ensure liquidity. In simple terms: London is the place for such platforms. Disagreements have already taken place with regards to whether those platforms could remain in London. If the decision is yes, it will be business as usual. If, however, the answer is no (the most probable outcome), then the trading platforms and back offices of stakeholders have to move. This includes the day traders and market makers who are crucial for the liquidity of the market.

There is a whole list of further variations on this issue. But all in all, it is essential that a financial institution with clients based within the EU considers its strategic options as of now. Establishing a presence in the EU needs at least 18 months from a regulatory stand point. As many EU regulators require a fully-fledged decision making unit through proper governance, the analysis of the changes in delegation of authority schemes and the assessment of potential human resources impacts must be considered early on in the process.

Paramount in the decision-making process should be the institution’s business potential, to follow their customers, and ongoing requirements, rather than solely the regulatory aspects.

Ben Martin, Founder, The Brexit Tracker:

Moving your business away from the UK is a major undertaking. Perhaps you were considering this prior to the Brexit referendum or more likely, you believe leaving the EU will make your business operations untenable. But before taking action, we suggest you calculate and monitor the financial impact of Brexit on your firm and compare this to the emotional ‘pull’ of moving to the EU.

Here’s our 5-point plan:

1. Calculate how Brexit has already impacted your firm. From over 390 economic indicators we’ve reviewed, the biggest market-related change has been GBP Sterling dropping 15% (now 12% weaker.)  How has this impacted your business?
2. Continually assess and record how new facts surrounding the UK/EU relationship will impact your £ calculations
3. On relocation – consider how you will continue to serve your UK customers.  With a weaker GBP, your UK sales are likely to be worth 12% less
4. A move will impact your business banking.  UK banks/lenders will need convincing of the merits of a move (and the enforceability of their security) to continual their financing
5. Consider your existing and new competitors – will a move provide an advantage to you or them?

In summary, firms need the full “Brexit facts” before undertaking a move to the EU – as the facts are in short supply, they should start their own Brexit monitoring system.

Oliver Watson, Executive Board Director for the UK and North America, PageGroup:

As is to be expected, multinational businesses are more cautious than UK SMEs when it comes to hiring in post-Brexit Britain – and, as I see it, there are two reasons for this.

With a variety of other investment opportunities elsewhere across the globe, large international businesses – who are under no obligation to invest in the UK – have the ready option to divert investment to other more certain markets. As a result, their talent acquisition will naturally become focused in a different direction or geographical location.

However, where SMEs generate the bulk of their revenues in the UK don’t have that option – they just have to get on with it. This means while multinationals are feeling cautious about UK hiring, for SMEs it is often business as usual. This is a pattern we’ve seen time and time again in the face of uncertainty.

Mary Wathen, Partner and Head of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Harrison Clark Rickerbys:

The Agricultural sector relies heavily on EU workers. Around 15% of the total workforce is from outside the UK. The uncertainty around the status of EU workers threatens to hit the agricultural sector hard if the status of EU workers isn’t clarified.

Despite the uncertainty, there are steps which savvy agricultural employers can take now to minimise the disruption. Taking action ahead of time will help maintain the flow of workers for each harvest, protecting both the business and the livelihoods it supports.

Employers need to ask themselves some key questions about their workforce:

• how many migrant EU permanent or seasonal workers do you have?
• how many are key staff, responsible for driving production, harvest or sales?
• how many have been in the UK long enough to acquire permanent residence?
• How many of your workforce are committed to remaining in the UK?

For smart agricultural employers, the so-called crisis provides an opportunity to build their employer brand.  Employers are enhancing their working relationships with key employees who meet the requirements for permanent residency and want to remain – introducing them to specialist agricultural immigration advisers and supporting employees through the application process.

But this isn’t the solution for the seasonal workforce shortage. The fruit-farming industry employs 29,000 seasonal workers, who go back to their home countries after six to nine months in the UK. They won’t be eligible to apply for permanent residency. Virtually all of them come from the EU, mainly Romania and Bulgaria, but also Poland and Hungary. If the Government ends freedom of movement, a return to the old-style permit scheme seems the only option to protect the harvest and UK agriculture.

Richard Thomas, Employment Partner, Capital Law:

One key issue for the forthcoming Brexit negotiations will be the issue of EU Immigration following our exit from the UK. There is no doubt that the UK Government will seek to put in place some form of “controls” on EU immigration after the UK leaves the EU but it is entirely unclear as to what form these controls will take and/or who they will apply to. Will the controls apply to unskilled, semi-skilled or skilled EU migrants? Who makes the decision as to what constitutes a semi-skilled or skilled role? Is there any appeal against this decision?

It has also been suggested that the UK will allow all current EU nationals working in the UK to remain in the UK after the UK leaves the EU but it is not clear whether this will be indefinitely and whether it will apply to non-working spouses and/or children. Ultimately no promises have been given and it is a matter for negotiation between the EU and the UK, although it is hoped that the issue will be resolved quickly.

In addition, in April 2017 the UK Government introduced the Immigration Skills Charge imposing a charge of £1,000 per year for employers sponsoring a worker from outside the EU. It is quite possible that the UK Government will extend this charge to EU workers who do not have rights of permanent residence once the UK leaves the EU.

Given the current uncertainty and potential cost the best advice to SME’s with EU workers who have been working in the UK for at least 5 years is to get them to make an application for Permanent Residence as this should provide a guarantee of an individual’s continuing right to work in the UK.

However, individuals making the application will have to complete an 85-page form and provide huge amounts of supporting documentation confirming what they have been doing in the UK for the last 5 years. This is an arduous process to say the least but there appears to be little alternative as (unlike some EU countries such as Germany) the UK has no central register of the identities or even the numbers of EU citizens currently working in the UK. The Home Office has stated that it is looking to use an online application process but there does not appear to be any additional funding for this.

Katherine Dennis, Associate in the Employment, Pensions and Immigration team, Charles Russell Speechlys LLP:

The EU referendum has caused a lot of uncertainty for EU nationals and their employers as to what their position is in the UK and what will happen when the UK exits the EU.  This is clearly an important issue for many SMEs, especially as sponsorship of overseas workers through the UK’s points-based system becomes increasingly expensive.

Importantly, free movement will continue to apply until the UK formally leaves the EU. This process was started on 29^th March 2017 by the UK government giving notice under Article 50 of the EU treaty. There will now follow a two-year negotiation period, which could be extended by agreement of all member states. The earliest the UK would leave the EU is therefore the end of March 2019. Until then, EU nationals are still free to work in the UK.

The UK government has clearly stated that it wishes to control migration from the EU, while still attracting those whom it considers have the most to offer the UK. It is highly likely therefore that the UK will introduce measures to restrict free movement. It is also therefore likely that it will be harder for employers to recruit EU nationals and it may be difficult for EU nationals to work in the UK on a self-employed basis.

At the moment, there is no firm indication as to the type of system which might be put in place and much depends on what the UK government is able to negotiate with the EU.

Possibilities include a new work visa system for EU nationals or expansion of the current points based system, which enables employers to sponsor skilled workers in the UK (although it is currently limited to professional roles at a certain salary). It is unlikely visas will be required for short business trips. Other possibilities include retaining limited free movement with measures to cap numbers, such as quotas or temporary ‘cooling-off periods’. Concessions may be made for sectors where there is a recognised labour shortage.

The UK government has stated that it intends to consult with businesses and communities to obtain the views of various sectors of the economy and the labour market. It is therefore crucial that employers and business-owners who are concerned about the impact of Brexit on their workforce respond to the government’s consultation when it is issued.

In the meantime, EU nationals who are eligible to apply for permanent residence (i.e. those who have been resident in the UK for five years or more) or British citizenship should do so now to ensure their continued right to work in the UK.  EU nationals who have not reached the five year point when the UK exits the EU are in a more vulnerable position.  It is sensible for those EU nationals to apply now for an EEA Registration Certificate, which confirms that they are currently living and working lawfully in the UK under EU provisions, in case this fact becomes important in any future transitional arrangements.

We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!

Somalia faces numerous challenges on its quest for peace, stability, and economic prosperity. The recent drought and famine will test the country's resilience to provide humanitarian assistance and will require help from the international community. The government's recent policies demonstrate its strong commitment to improving the state of the country and Somalis' livelihoods.

Here are five things to know about Somalia's economy since the country resumed relations with the international community five years ago.

The drought is severely affecting vulnerable populations. The harsh impact of the ongoing drought on the agricultural sector has put about 6.2 million people (about half the Somali population) in need of assistance and at risk of food insecurity, prompting an urgent need for humanitarian and financial assistance from the government and the international community. The government will also need to better coordinate and monitor humanitarian aid distribution amid security challenges across some regions with a focus on the most affected regions.

Somalia is a fragile state, located in the horn of Africa, that has emerged from a two-decade-long civil war that caused significant damage to the country's economic and social infrastructures. In 2012, the Federal Government of Somalia was elected and recognized by the international community. Postwar conditions continue to be difficult, however, with poverty widespread and weak institutional capacity.

Donors' support is key. The Somali economy is sustained by donors' grants, remittances, and foreign direct investment mostly by the Somali diaspora. Since 2013, the donor community has given over $4.5 billion in humanitarian and developmental grants, which is essential in contributing to finance Somalia's trade deficit of nearly 55 percent of GDP (average during 2013-16). The current drought is expected to slow economic activity and raise inflation this year, thereby making donor support all the more critical to sustain growth.

Tackling unemployment is crucial for political stability. The unemployed youth population (about 67 percent) contributes significantly to irregular migration and participation in extremist activities, including Al-Shabaab—the militant jihadist group—which is viewed as another form of employment. With very high youth unemployment and low overall labor force participation (particularly by women), the Somali authorities established the National Development Plan that focuses on the following key areas: how to achieve higher economic growth, create jobs, and absorb the Somali refugees returning from Kenya; remittances flows; and prioritizing social safety nets and pressing humanitarian conditions.

Preparations for currency reform are under way to help strengthen governance . As part of a wider Somali reform initiative, the Central Bank of Somalia and the Federal Government of Somalia are preparing to reissue new Somali shilling banknotes—for the first time in 26 years—to combat the existing massive counterfeiting in the country, restore confidence in the national currency, and to allow the central bank to start implementing monetary policy. The IMF is helping the authorities to implement the measures that need to be in place for the launch of the new currency.

The IMF is working closely with Somalia. Since resuming its relationship with the country in 2013, the IMF has concluded two annual economic assessments—the first in 2015—marking the first IMF consultation with the country since 1989. Because Somalia is in arrears with the IMF it cannot benefit from IMF loans; however, the authorities have engaged with the IMF in the context of a 12-month staff-monitored program. This has helped create a framework to support Somalia's economic reconstruction efforts, rebuild institutional capacity, and establish a track record of policy and reform implementation. The first review of this program was completed in February 2017.

Technical assistance is helping. Somalia is among the largest beneficiaries of IMF technical assistance—which helps build institutional capacity—receiving over 70 technical assistance and training missions since 2014. Tangible progress is being made in budget preparation and fiscal reporting, currency reform, and financial sector reporting and licensing. For example, the authorities have been able to prepare a national budget for 2014-2017 and since January 2015, the government produced its first monthly fiscal reporting data. Starting from a very low capacity and a mix of Islamic and western accounting systems, central bank staff have developed a bank licensing framework, methods for periodic reporting by commercial banks, a system for bank financial analysis, and a supervisory scoring system that monitors the overall health of a bank. As Somalia continues to engage more with the international financial institutions, the IMF will deepen and scale up its capacity-building efforts as necessary.

(Source: International Monetary Fund)

Looking to start your own business? Maybe you’re a few steps in already? You feel like you’re treading on egg shells? Gary Turner, UK Managing Director of Xero, here gives a brief analysis of all that can go wrong, and how to avoid them!

Entrepreneurs deserve a huge amount of respect for taking the leap to start their own business venture as it’s no small feat. You just have to look at the troubling statistics which show 21% of SMBs don’t make it past their first year to realise the challenge that’s set before them. I’ve been vocal that 2017 will be an unpredictable year for the UK economy, and following last week’s budget it’s vital now more than ever that a new business starts with as few issues as possible.
Here are my 6 Don’ts to ensure success in your first year.

1. Don’t rush your dream team

You may have a small network, you may have never hired an employee, and you may have many family and friends happy to help out. This can lead to new business owners bringing in familiar faces to help get them off the ground – but while this is useful for some aspects of work like admin and delivery, external expertise are vital. It’s not advisable to bring in family just because they’re accessible, take the time to recruit people who belong in a small business. The key traits to look out for are ambition and initiative, and an innate ability to work in teams. Alongside a specific skillset for different aspects of the business such as marketing, IT, sales and the like, it will help frame your company as a professional one.

2. Don’t market your company before developing your brand 

The excitement of launching your own business is unparalleled, and naturally you’ll want to shout about it from the high heavens. However, before you go spending money on services claiming to boost the potential of your social media channels, you first need to create your own business identity. This includes creating your own brand values, distinguishing your unique selling point, identifying your tone, and keeping consistent messaging across all PR and marketing. No matter how someone hears about your business, it needs to be in line with where they may hear about you elsewhere.

3. Don’t lose sight of your personal life

Just because you’ve become a business owner doesn’t mean it should become who you are. You need to remember to keep you personal life separate from business. We need to respect ‘burnout’ as a real phenomenon, it’s not something only the weak experience, it’s human to feel run down and demotivated from a lack of enjoyment in life, so take the time to focus on you. A lot of this boils down to balancing work with play, and today’s technology makes accessibility to work a lot more possible. By using the cloud anywhere, you can cut commuting time and spend that time on extracurricular activities.

4. Don’t assume the role of an accountant

There are intelligent software tools that allow you to take your finances into your own hands. Online platforms can allow you to analyse your numbers, expenses, wages, POs/invoices and more. And while we believe this makes small business finance accessible and more easily digestible, nothing compares to the experience of an accountant. They’ll be able to monitor books for errors, use their knowledge to discover your eligible tax breaks, offer guidance and insight as a result of your numbers and more. Yes, accounting tools are important, but using someone’s expertise will help those numbers go that much further.

5. Don’t set yourself unrealistic goals

Ambition is important, but your first year should be the time to get your ducks in a row. Setting specific and high targets can be demoralising if you don’t hit your highest hopes, which is why you should set bronze, silver and gold targets. This will allow for a feeling of success, but it will also encourage you to push yourself to strive for gold – be it sales, exposure, clientele - targets will always be beneficial in building motivation and momentum.

6. Don’t go at it alone

Recent findings from Xero’s Make or Break report shows that, despite Brexit being a huge concern, 58% won’t be seeking help from a mentor. It’s unclear why, perhaps it’s from a lack of access to industry peers, perhaps it’s a strong sense of self-belief, but either way mentors can bring huge benefits . There is no shame in asking for advice, and most people will be happy to share their wisdom and experience. Don’t make a mistake that could have been easily advisable, hit the forums, attend networking events or even ask people in different industries – any knowledge you can soak up is vital to your future success.

Despite some positive economic data in the run up to today’s Budget, the Chancellor has reinforced his steady approach while making some small but significant pro-business adjustments, according to accountancy firm, Menzies LLP.

Business rates

The Chancellor has announced a £600 a year cap on business rates for smaller retailers that stand to lose the small business rate relief. Local authorities are also being given a £300 million pot to support local business.

“The Chancellor has acknowledged that the business rate systems needs fundamental reform and has promised to address this in time. However, in the short term, this cap is not enough and will only deliver limited savings for SME businesses. This will disappoint those expecting big rates increases.”

Self-employment

In the interests of ‘fairness’, the Chancellor has opted to increase National Insurance Contribution rates payable by self-employed workers to 11% by April 2019.

“Care needs to be taken to ensure that self-employed workers aren’t unduly disadvantaged. For this reason, the consultation announced to take place this summer is welcome. In particular, employers will also need to be reassured that they will still have access to this valuable and flexible employment pool.”

Tax-free dividends

The Chancellor has announced plans for the tax-free dividends allowance to reduce from £5,000 to £2,000 in April 2018.

“Before 2016, basic rate tax payers paid no tax at all on dividend payments. Since then, a tax liability has been introduced in stages; first with an exemption on the first £5,000. Now this exemption has been reduced to £2,000, which suggests it could even be removed altogether in time.

“This is a stealth tax on basic rate tax payers. It will also hit employees of companies that encourage wider share ownership and make it harder for employers to create meaningful incentives.”

Brexit negotiations

The Chancellor stopped short of doing anything further on Corporation Tax, which is planned to decrease to 17% by 2020.

“Corporation tax was mentioned several times in the Chancellor’s Statement and this is probably because the government is considering using it as part of Brexit negotiations. Further measures to reduce the administrative burden of R&D tax relief could also be used in this way.”

Apprenticeships and technology training

The Chancellor is intending to go ahead with the introduction of the Apprenticeship Levy in April 2018 in its current form. He also announced the introduction of T-Levels; new, skills-focused qualifications to be attained through the further education system.

“The introduction of T-Levels is good news but it will be some time before any benefit is felt by employers. It means that 13,000 qualifications will be replaced by just 15 and this will certainly bring greater focus, which will help employers to understand and recognise these new qualifications.”

(Source: Menzies LLP) 

One in six small businesses (17%) is planning to employ new staff by the end of April 2017 – with the IT & Telecoms sector leading the employment charge (27%) -– according to the new research from Hitachi Capital’s quarterly British Business Barometer.

The new Hitachi Capital Business Finance data comes as the Federation of Small Businesses has urged The Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond to boost jobs and long-term growth in the forthcoming Spring Budget. The new Hitachi Capital data suggests many SMEs already plan to hire new staff before April: the areas where they could do with Government support relate to keeping fixed running costs and business rates down.

Beyond being financial growth drivers for the economy at large - and an ongoing source of ideas and innovation - the UK’s small businesses are vital drivers for employment and training to the British economy. The new research by Hitachi Capital Business Finance revealed the younger the small business the more likely it was to be hiring. One in five SME decision makers (20%) from enterprises less than five years old plan to hire new people by April. In contrast, businesses over 35 years are the least likely to be hiring (13%).

For eight of eleven regions polled, typically around one in six small ventures were planning to expand their headcount in the next three months – with London, the South East, North West and Scotland driving activity.

Regional employment over the next three months

By sector, the divergence between regions most and least likely to employ new staff were more pronounced – the biggest opportunity sectors being IT & Telecoms, Financial Services, Manufacturing and Medical.

Employment over the next three months by sector

Gavin Wraith-Carter, Managing Director at Hitachi Capital Business Finance comments: “The Spring Budget is an opportunity for the Chancellor to openly support the growth ambitions of SMEs and the positive contribution they make to the UK economy at large. Many small business owners are concerned about the impact of a steep rise in business rates and have placed importance on cutting fixed costs and better managing cashflow and invoicing to keep their business plans on track.

 “On a positive note, our Spring research suggests that many SMEs are adjusting quickly to Brexit, looking for new markets to expand into and fresh methods to drive growth – and many intend to increase headcount to support these plans. This week’s Budget is a great opportunity for the Government to reaffirm its support for the sector at a critical time.”

(Source: Hitachi Capital Business Finance)